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  • #301
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:47pm Feb 5, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting dappa
lol.... thats a funny statement. lmaof
Funny, but with real intent. There are a few days every month that I sit out.

1) Last Friday of the month. Every Friday is a wild card because traders like to clear up their desks before the weekend. Last Friday of the month especially wonky because it's Friday AND close to the end of the month when the brokerage needs to balance its books.

2) Last day of the month. If they didn't meet their quotas or profit targets by the last Friday of the month, this is crunch day. Very easy to pick the wrong pair and give back a big chunk of your profit on this day.

3) NFP Y'all can trade NFP if you like. I prefer to go shopping.

4) FOMC This one is discretionary since it only comes up every 6 weeks. I do not like to get caught in a whipsaw, but if the broker's intentions are crystal clear, then I will weigh in with a small position. I do not need FOMC to make my bank.

5) Wednesday of a NFP week I have made huge gains from Sunday night until midnight Tuesday, and given half of it back on Wednesday, all too often to count this day as a viable trading day. I prefer to hang on to my pips and get other things done.

This is all I have for right now. Your mileage may vary, of course.

LAFF
  • #302
  • Feb 5, 2012 11:59pm Feb 5, 2012 11:59pm
From 4hrs regression channel analysis, I'm thinking that EUR/USD and GBP/USD are moving away from Level3 top and biased to downside, forming Level1 drop. USD/CHF to upside Level1 rise.

AUD/USD still in uptrend Level3 highs with corresponding USD/CAD in downtrend Level3 lows.

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY direction more clear in 60mins picture, bullish Level2 rise depending on what USD/JPY is going to do this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #303
  • Edited 7:22am Feb 6, 2012 3:15am | Edited 7:22am
EUR/USD came out of asian session with a run to Friday's LOD, pulled back up sharply into declining 50ema, flat 800ema, SharkFin in TDI, shorted 1.30817. When the next 15mins candle closed under 13ema, we have confirmation the 3-bars reversal is in place. So added short 1.30716.

EUR/JPY has very similar moves.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #304
  • Edited 5:14am Feb 7, 2012 1:50am | Edited 5:14am
EUR/USD formed a nice W-pattern yesterday on 15mins chart off the 800ema seen on 1hr chart. Coming out of asian consolidation today, prices moved up quickly on "StraightAway" trade with no pullback to pivot M2 (1.3080 area) for safer entry. Zooming down to 1mins or 5mins, best chance to enter long is on break of 1.3114.

When ADRs are small, probably expect better volatility and actions after New York open.
http://i.imgur.com/zt1Ks.png
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  • #305
  • Feb 7, 2012 4:36am Feb 7, 2012 4:36am
... on the 15m chart ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286107441.png

... but I won't take this because on the 1h chart, it looks there is at least another wave up ahead ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286107442.png

... might go down 50 pips though, but this is NOT the high probability trade I like to take.
  • #306
  • Edited 10:33pm Feb 7, 2012 7:39am | Edited 10:33pm
USD/CAD threw 2 pins to Monday's highs, hourly (downtrend) regression channel suggesting possible reversal opportunity.

Successfully shorted at HOD and took profits at LOD, capturing the entire day's range. Can be done.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #307
  • Feb 7, 2012 8:07am Feb 7, 2012 8:07am
Quoting bstay2
USD/CAD threw 2 pins to Monday's highs, hourly (downtrend) regression channel suggesting possible reversal opportunity.

nice trade you have there

captured some pips also but got it from eurusd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #308
  • Edited 9:59pm Feb 7, 2012 10:18am | Edited 9:59pm
Here we go / went ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286302401.png

See how easy it was to sniff out the "fake" M? Just look at the 60m TDI and don't take an M down as long as the TDI (green line) is still making higher highs without showing exhaustion. Look at the last 100 Ms of the 15m EU chart, hold them against the 60m chart and see which ones developed into full reversals and which ones did not. Note further, how many good Ms were at or near a confluence of "lines" (previous day H, Blue, Mayo, Water, PP, M3, M4). Same for Ws.

Most people, including me in the beginning, make MMM trading too complicated. You can increase your hit rate with further tools such as VSA. However, without complete mastery, all these additional tools do more harm than good. Just WMs, TDI divergence on 15m, confirmation on TDI 60m and a little "lines" confluence is all you need to become consistently profitable. Even level counting is not necessary.

Besides, with an excellent short entry, say 1.3149, you could have taken this "fake" M down to +50 pips. In fact, with a good entry, you can take every MW. Simply move the SL to BE quickly on the shaky ones, say, when you are +18 pips in profit. You will get stopped BE often, rarely lose -20 pips and get a decent share of +50 pips winners. Will you always get excellent entries? No. In these cases, simply don't take them. And stop feeling bad when you missed a good one. If you don't learn to see the market as an infinite provider of opportunities, you'll never become a happy trader. (o;

Today, on the EU, a sharp trader could have then reversed at Blue / PP / Mayo and taken this thing up to 1.3240 (ATR high) for another +110 pips or so. However, I don't try to be sharp. Most trader who try to clean up every opportunity lose their shirt in the end. Trading with consistent profit is actually a pretty dumb task, requires more patience than anything else. Our desire to outsmart kills most of us. Even the legendary Jessy Livermore could have avoided bankruptcy and suicide but he obviously got lost in the thrill of the game.

Quoting hart3000
... on the 15m chart ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286107441.png

... but I won't take this because on the 1h chart, it looks there is at least another wave up ahead ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286107442.png

... might go down 50 pips though, but this is NOT the high probability trade I like to take.
  • #309
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:39am Feb 7, 2012 10:39am
Quoting bstay2
USD/CAD threw 2 pins to Monday's highs, hourly (downtrend) regression channel suggesting possible reversal opportunity.
Nice trades.

Also like your multi-period regression channels on 1h / 4h charts. Obviously a useful tool. Fits well into f451's most recent posting on levels in the II thread.

Thanks, Bstay2!
  • #310
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:46am Feb 7, 2012 10:46am
Quoting hart3000
Here we go / went ...
See how easy it was to sniff out the "fake" M?.....
Very nice explanation - thanks for the insight!
  • #311
  • Feb 7, 2012 1:00pm Feb 7, 2012 1:00pm
[quote=hart3000;5363232]Here we go / went ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286302401.png

See how easy it was to sniff out the "fake" M? Just look at the 60m TDI and don't take an M down as long as the TDI (green line) is still making higher highs without showing exhaustion.

Do you mean higher lows here on the TDI, right?
If not I am not getting it..
Thanks
  • #312
  • Edited 6:18pm Feb 7, 2012 5:36pm | Edited 6:18pm
Quoting Sammy76
Do you mean higher lows here on the TDI, right?
If not I am not getting it..
Thanks
This was a perfectly fine M in the 15m chart (shark fin, H of previous day, etc.). That's why I chose it for live demonstration (no hindsight). Look at the 60m chart:

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286107442.png

It looks like there will be another higher high on the TDI. Complete the next wave before your inner eye (extrapolate similar length and size). Didn't look like it was stopping or reversing at all. Looking back at many 60m TDIs situations will develop your feeling for this. It's not just higher highs or any other mechanical rule but the interplay of absolute position, number of waves completed and change in velocity. Similar to understanding language, you have to take in the context. Computers can't do this.

Could this particular "weak M" have developed into a full-blown reversal? It sure could have. At any time during trading, anything can happen. We are dealing with probabilities here. That's why it's so important that you train your mind with hundreds of situations, not just a hand full.

The problem of most traders (that includes me) is that we find something that works 5 times in a row and think "hey, now I've got it". That's how human minds work but it's completely wrong in trading. Human intuition is not good at dealing with probabilities.
  • #313
  • Feb 7, 2012 6:04pm Feb 7, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting hart3000
Here we go / went ...

http://photoupload.org/uploads/13286302401.png

See how easy it was to sniff out the "fake" M? Just look at the 60m TDI and don't take an M down as long as the TDI (green line) is still making higher highs without showing exhaustion. Look at the last 100 Ms of the 15m EU chart, hold them against the 60m chart and see which ones developed into full reversals and which ones did not. Note further, how many good Ms were at or near a confluence of "lines" (previous day H, Blue, Mayo, Water, PP, M3, M4). Same...
nice work .... thanks for the insights. very clear and concise ...very helpful
  • #314
  • Feb 7, 2012 7:47pm Feb 7, 2012 7:47pm
hi guys, i already have the TDI but don't know how to use it, i have the 50ema and 200ema, what other indicators do i need, and how do i get the indicator to know the weekly and daily adr, thank you guys

heart3000 that was a nice analysis and also bstay2

also heart3000 probably you can share the template ur using so that mine could also look the same as your if its ok, thanks

thank you so much guys!!!
  • #315
  • Edited 9:37pm Feb 7, 2012 9:02pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting mactrading
hi guys, i already have the TDI but don't know how to use it, i have the 50ema and 200ema, what other indicators do i need, and how do i get the indicator to know the weekly and daily adr, thank you guys

heart3000 that was a nice analysis and also bstay2

also heart3000 probably you can share the template ur using so that mine could also look the same as your if its ok, thanks

thank you so much guys!!!
You don't NEED anything else. However, the boxes are nice to have (google "Daily LinesBoxes.mq4", it's freeware and you will also find excellent documentation, found that one recently, it can even draw boxes across midnight, handy for certain MT4 providers). Daily pivots can also help. Daily ATR H/L as well.

As for the template, I am using Sierra Chart for my MMM charts, not MT4.
  • #316
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:41pm Feb 7, 2012 10:41pm
Quoting hart3000
You don't NEED anything else. However, the boxes are nice to have (google "Daily LinesBoxes.mq4", it's freeware and you will also find excellent documentation, found that one recently, it can even draw boxes across midnight, handy for certain MT4 providers). Daily pivots can also help. Daily ATR H/L as well.

As for the template, I am using Sierra Chart for my MMM charts, not MT4.
ok got it, thanks again
  • #317
  • Edited 6:10am Feb 8, 2012 12:59am | Edited 6:10am
possible hourly divergence? or still going up?

GBP/JPY made a pin bar at 5:00amEST with negative divergence in TDI 15mins.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #318
  • Feb 8, 2012 1:02am Feb 8, 2012 1:02am
Quoting bstay2
possible hourly divergence? or still going up?
I'd trade this. In case stopped, take it again.
  • #319
  • Edited 1:52am Feb 8, 2012 1:24am | Edited 1:52am
Quoting mactrading
you'll trade this long or short?
Short.

Q tells me, you still have to do a little more MMM study. (o;
  • #320
  • Feb 8, 2012 2:38am Feb 8, 2012 2:38am
Quoting mactrading
hi guys, i already have the TDI but don't know how to use it, i have the 50ema and 200ema, what other indicators do i need, and how do i get the indicator to know the weekly and daily adr, thank you guys

heart3000 that was a nice analysis and also bstay2

also heart3000 probably you can share the template ur using so that mine could also look the same as your if its ok, thanks

thank you so much guys!!!
mactrading... goto post #285, you'll find the boxes and ADR posted there.
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