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Silent Service Method

  • #13,441
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:15am Feb 3, 2012 8:15am
Clockwork just wanted to say thanks. I know you guys have been here a few years now but I have literally only just found this thread. I'm on page 25 and can't get enough.

Have a great weekend.

H
  • #13,442
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:26am Feb 3, 2012 8:26am
So it looks like our old friend is finally breaking down through the 1.22 level.

The initial drop from 1.3 to the latest conso box ate up about 800 points of the initial 1400 pip target.

I have a preliminary TP goal of 300 pips for this latest breakout, as the consolidation measured 1.25 to 1.22 from top to bottom.

If/when we reach that level, roughly 1.19 we can reassess the likelihood of more consolidation before ultimately pushing down to 1.15.

Anyone else still in the pair?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud breakout.PNG Size: 28 KB
  • #13,443
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:34am Feb 3, 2012 8:34am
Chris, I guess the NFP number did contain somewhat of a surprise huh?
  • #13,444
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:53am Feb 3, 2012 8:53am
Quoting o990l6mh
Chris, I guess the NFP number did contain somewhat of a surprise huh?
Ha yeah but seems like the EUR/USD crew just didn't know what to do with it.
  • #13,445
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:56am Feb 3, 2012 8:56am
Quoting o990l6mh
Chris, I guess the NFP number did contain somewhat of a surprise huh?
As best I can figure... less chance of QE3 now. Oh boy... rumor fueled market as always.
  • #13,446
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:54am Feb 3, 2012 11:54am
Quoting heath
Clockwork just wanted to say thanks. I know you guys have been here a few years now but I have literally only just found this thread. I'm on page 25 and can't get enough.

Have a great weekend.

H
Thanks Heath......let us know if there are any questions.

Chris
  • #13,447
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:54am Feb 3, 2012 11:54am
Quoting uBERpIP
So it looks like our old friend is finally breaking down through the 1.22 level.

The initial drop from 1.3 to the latest conso box ate up about 800 points of the initial 1400 pip target.

I have a preliminary TP goal of 300 pips for this latest breakout, as the consolidation measured 1.25 to 1.22 from top to bottom.

If/when we reach that level, roughly 1.19 we can reassess the likelihood of more consolidation before ultimately pushing down to 1.15.

Anyone else still in the pair?
Everyone pay attention - his analysis is spot on.
  • #13,448
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:55am Feb 3, 2012 11:55am
Quoting o990l6mh
Chris, I guess the NFP number did contain somewhat of a surprise huh?
Yes and no. There was also a revision of how they factor the number as well. And besides, this is all made up anyways......but you are correct as for it being a surprise......is it the truth? Who knows?
  • #13,449
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:57am Feb 3, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Rk33333
Ha yeah but seems like the EUR/USD crew just didn't know what to do with it.
Quite frankly, which currency (and by extension economy) are you going to invest in? The one that has massive debt bombs blowing up and is going into recession, or the one coming out of it and adding jobs? (The debt bomb doesn't count, nobody really pays attention to it.)

I think the EUR/USD rightfully will be at parity before this is all said and done. I am not even convinced there will even be a Euro in the current form in 5 years to be honest......just an opinion.
  • #13,450
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:28pm Feb 3, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting clockwork71
Quite frankly, which currency (and by extension economy) are you going to invest in? The one that has massive debt bombs blowing up and is going into recession, or the one coming out of it and adding jobs? (The debt bomb doesn't count, nobody really pays attention to it.)

I think the EUR/USD rightfully will be at parity before this is all said and done. I am not even convinced there will even be a Euro in the current form in 5 years to be honest......just an opinion.
I was just surprised at how it seemed like nobody reacted to it at all, usually with a number like that pairs like EU or cable would shoot up just out of habit wouldn't they? I guess because one way is debt bomb and the other way is hints of QE so it just stayed put.

I have been watching AUD/JPY because buying this after a break north would also benefit from possible BOJ intervention what do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.jpg Size: 325 KB
  • #13,451
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:08pm Feb 3, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes and no. There was also a revision of how they factor the number as well. And besides, this is all made up anyways......but you are correct as for it being a surprise......is it the truth? Who knows?
Who knows... Mulder and Scully of course!

Sorry, Friday night silliness on my part.
  • #13,452
  • Feb 4, 2012 12:27am Feb 4, 2012 12:27am
Quoting Rk33333
I was just surprised at how it seemed like nobody reacted to it at all, usually with a number like that pairs like EU or cable would shoot up just out of habit wouldn't they? I guess because one way is debt bomb and the other way is hints of QE so it just stayed put.

I have been watching AUD/JPY because buying this after a break north would also benefit from possible BOJ intervention what do you think?
Possible. One thing that caught my eye is the USD/JPY pretty much stopped at the 76.50 level again......right where the previous support had been. If the market drops again - intervention will certainly happen soon.
  • #13,453
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:36pm Feb 4, 2012 5:36pm
Updated the very first post. Please pay attention to the bit in bold red letters.
  • #13,454
  • Feb 6, 2012 3:39am Feb 6, 2012 3:39am
Quoting stewrigh
I know what you mean about the Aussie - I'd love to short it but just can't pull the trigger at the moment. If, however there is more trouble in ME and ppl rush to the dollar - who knows?

Attachment
Getting interesting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #13,455
  • Feb 6, 2012 6:26am Feb 6, 2012 6:26am
Quoting stewrigh
Getting interesting.
Word-on-the-street is virtually all Retail and Prop are Short round 1.08. Watch the RBA Rate Statement later today. If first-tier Bulls through it, regardless (a strong move it'd be) could setup a beautiful Long on the pullback.
  • #13,456
  • Feb 6, 2012 10:38am Feb 6, 2012 10:38am
I believe that the RBA and a .25 cut is expected. Truthfully, it will be about the statement afterwards. If there is a hint that they are going to hold afterwards, this will be a buy on the pullback event......

I still have a target of 1.12 in this pair from the breakout of a triangle at the 1.04 level.
  • #13,457
  • Feb 6, 2012 10:46am Feb 6, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Soca
Word-on-the-street is virtually all Retail and Prop are Short round 1.08. Watch the RBA Rate Statement later today. If first-tier Bulls through it, regardless (a strong move it'd be) could setup a beautiful Long on the pullback.

Yep - who knows - think I'll wait a bit longer lol.

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2012/02/...markets-think/
  • #13,458
  • Feb 6, 2012 9:40pm Feb 6, 2012 9:40pm
Current 15m bar on EUR/AUD just dropped about 90 points.
AUD/USD popped its head up a little as well.

Let's see where these can go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 90 point 15m.PNG Size: 40 KB
  • #13,459
  • Feb 6, 2012 11:18pm Feb 6, 2012 11:18pm
Quoting uBERpIP
Current 15m bar on EUR/AUD just dropped about 90 points.
AUD/USD popped its head up a little as well.

Let's see where these can go.
All things being equal......we should continue the trend......
  • #13,460
  • Feb 6, 2012 11:31pm Feb 6, 2012 11:31pm
I'm waiting patiently for a chance to go long AUDCHF, seems to me like that could be the trade of the year.

I'm already in the EURAUD short, so now it's a matter of trade management.
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