@indianguyinny24 I agree that 60 pips spike is of no relevance, was just curious. for the most part, fx trading can be so mundane. this unexpected spike made me spill my coffee with excitement because i was looking for an opportunity to add more to my early morning short positions. rgds
Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #30,524
- Edited 8:36pm Feb 2, 2012 7:53pm | Edited 8:36pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
the politics, try stay clear of it, vic.they talking about closing all business enterprises.
all international business speculates on their business plan, at least a 2 year business plan viability. The norm is 5 years plan.Without the viability and the element of speculating, no business plan can work. This because they need speculate on the business conditions and formulate plans to weather the markets. so for firms who are in the international arena, they need able speculate and manage where the foreign exchange rates will be for them cost their products. They need have plan price their product advantagesly in different forex ranges to turn a profit. Otherwise need hedge.(which is another form of speculation). Hedge wrong and they lose competitive edge.
Well, never mind.we just watch what they really mean. Maybe they talking about manipulators.
regards
Ps: For countries that want forbid speculation , then they cannot use the dynamics of free markets. (no speculation=no hedge capabilities, no ability to have risk distributed to speculation) They need impliment pegged rates to create unchanging exchange conditions for trade. But pegging has to be implimented at the most highest of govt. then at that level they still need to manage vis a vis their counterparties. So the speculating will only be at the pegging authorities levels. They peg wrong and ..............
- #30,525
- Feb 2, 2012 7:59pm Feb 2, 2012 7:59pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
they talking about closing all business enterprises.
all business speculates on their business plan, at least a 2 year business plan viability. The norm is 5 years plan.Without the viability and the element of speculating, no business plan can work. This because they need speculate on the business conditions and formulate plans to weather the markets. so for firms who are in the international arena, they need able speculate and manage where the foreign exchange rates will be for them cost their products....
hows energies....
V
- #30,526
- Edited 8:34pm Feb 2, 2012 8:09pm | Edited 8:34pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
yup.. dont want to put mind on things i cant control....
hows energies....
V
a bit better after a good sleep.but the manipulation i saw yesterday, just pumps my blood hot.
too much ego and markets seems illiquid. But seems they got a handle on it already today.
They keep trying kill the overweighted euro bears' stops.
regards
- #30,527
- Edited 8:58pm Feb 2, 2012 8:15pm | Edited 8:58pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
What's with the tear in G/E....?
Regards
"The market will remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent."
Be safe folks.
this the reason why you must manage your leverage.Your book must be able withstand irrationality in the volatility when markets sometime try find its equilibrium. Thats where your profits come from. Without volatility you cannot get any movement , so where's the profits gonna come from. But if the volatility is excessive and your book cannot handle it then you will pain. If the irrationality last long time, can be very damning.
Spot desk never uses leverage, and is already difficult manage.
Some of you are leveraged a couple hundred times? Is death wish, any thing more than 7X is already very dangerous.
Beware most traders not killed by volatility, mostly by over leveraging.
This is important lesson.
regards
PS and not try blame brokers.
They can give you 1000x leverage if they can cost effectively do.
But its the leverage you actually expose your book at , that has any impact on your P&L and decision making mindset(emotions). eg if you have 10000 capital if you decide use 10x leverage . your limit of exposure would be 100,000 position. if you used that which broker gave you 1000x then limit is 10,000,000. which will kill you in no time even in just 1 standard deviation historical volatility.
So the problem is mostly not in market volatility, that is norm in markets, markets are volatile by nature.
its in your greed factor.
Mom always tells, wear a hat that your head can fit in. Wear a hat thats too big for your head, then you better not go windy places.
- #30,528
- Feb 2, 2012 8:43pm Feb 2, 2012 8:43pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
but the manipulation i saw yesterday, just pumps my blood hot.
too much ego and markets seems illiquid. But seems they got a handle on it already today.
They keep trying kill the overweighted euro bears' stops.
regards
pure manipulation ...
not sure how you flow in this...may bemy mindset.. i am still hit and rn...and get my feather thats all...
yup...that is true there is overweight euro bear...
V
- #30,531
- Feb 2, 2012 8:53pm Feb 2, 2012 8:53pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Chief,
I manage my size ...every pip...every min..every sec ..aka NOW....
V
then to you this all opportunities, if you can dance it.regards
- #30,532
- Feb 2, 2012 8:55pm Feb 2, 2012 8:55pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
regards
yup and still learning/improving....
V
- #30,533
- Edited 9:41pm Feb 2, 2012 9:02pm | Edited 9:41pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
yup and still learning/improving....
V
the authorities, they won't be in unless market riots.
but they should surely be watching the liquidity of their markets.
relative volatility is gone nuts. and lose mouths not helping situation.
this now a minefield, a minefield of stops. I believe mostly account buyin stops.
Don't expect authorities manage your book volatility.
Thats your task as speculator.
but the jerkyness due to illiquidity and manipulation is very unnerving.
I felt it too yesterday. And my heart complained.
I guess this the reason i not trading.
Is too much for a weak heart.
regards
- #30,534
- Edited 9:45pm Feb 2, 2012 9:34pm | Edited 9:45pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
the authorities, they won't be in unless market riots.
but they should surely be watching the liquidity of their markets.
volatility is gone nuts. and lose mouths not helping situation.
this now a minefield, a minefield of stops. I believe mostly account buyin stops.
Don't expect authorities manage your book volatility.
Thats your task as speculator.
but the jerkyness due to illiquidity and manipulation is very unnerving.
I felt it too yesterday. And my heart complained.
regards
sooner we will be able to dance both ways...thats the dream adn goal...
V
PS: now i can say i have a dream
- #30,535
- Feb 2, 2012 9:49pm Feb 2, 2012 9:49pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
sooner we will be able to dance both ways...thats the dream adn goal...
V
PS: now i can say i have a dream
dancing intendem with trend is safest.just a reminder.
remember "bulls makes money , bears makes money, pigs gets slaughtered."
in wild volatility always stay on wind.
If headwind, seek shelter, rigidity kills.
manage size, properly.
regards
- #30,536
- Feb 2, 2012 9:55pm Feb 2, 2012 9:55pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
just a reminder.
remember "bulls makes money , bears makes money, pigs gets slaughtered."
in wild volatility always stay on wind.
If headwind, seek shelter, rigidity kills.
regards
Yup...watching forest gump now...beautiful movie...
V
- #30,537
- Feb 2, 2012 10:17pm Feb 2, 2012 10:17pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
Yup...watching forest gump now...beautiful movie...
V
Good, thats 1 way relax.But me, i am real pain in the behind.
I now trying figure out (speculate) what the euros would be exchangable for deutschemarks if they reverted. And also the rest of the 27.
when i come to greece, suddenly all blank. i guess I not have the experience able figure that one out. Dang, keeps getting zeros.
regards
- #30,538
- Feb 2, 2012 10:18pm Feb 2, 2012 10:18pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
But me, i am real pain in the behind.
I now trying figure out (speculate) what the deutschemarks would be exchangable for euros if they reverted. And also the rest of the 27.
when i come to greece, suddenly all blank. i guess I not have the experience able figure that one out.
regards
V
- #30,539
- Edited 10:38pm Feb 2, 2012 10:24pm | Edited 10:38pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 19,782 Posts
what you Predict chief...
V
maybe this the result of heart weakness. I think of that and no blood reach my brain.
I try reverse engineer it only see blank.
Seems can't live in the past, neither can i see the future.
Maybe if i try be little optimistic.
Maybe if i try calcuate it in RMB terms?
Is easier because thats pegged.
I get a sick joke.Just ask any chinese what a rm bi means.
regards
- #30,540
- Feb 2, 2012 10:33pm Feb 2, 2012 10:33pm
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,994 Posts
no need predicted, just can't figure it out, scary void blank mind.
maybe this the result of heart weakness. I think of that and no blood reach my brain.
I try reverse engineer it only see blank.
Seems can't live in the past, neither can i see the future.
Maybe if i try be little optimistic.
Maybe if i try calcuate it in RMB terms?
Is easier because thats pegged.
regards
V