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  • #1,281
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:36am Jan 31, 2012 6:36am
whats your take on this one?

It's forming right now.

A Short with stop above LH might be worth the risk.
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  • #1,282
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:53am Jan 31, 2012 6:53am
Quoting MitchWorse
whats your take on this one?

It's forming right now.

A Short with stop above LH might be worth the risk.
Just some thoughts on that.

The coming PA will dictate what happens
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  • #1,283
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:11am Jan 31, 2012 7:11am
Quoting MitchWorse
whats your take on this one?

It's forming right now.

A Short with stop above LH might be worth the risk.
Not quite an QM because the LL did not engulf the previous L - instead it was a flag (yesterday's movement) back into demand which created a DBL.

I suppose it would be more a skewed H/S if the RS turned here.

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  • #1,284
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:28am Jan 31, 2012 7:28am
exactly my thoughts, but QM or not... i'm in

TL from daily as stop and it's nice R:R to that pole base. With a partial close ~1.307x
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  • #1,285
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:31am Jan 31, 2012 7:31am
what suprises me guys is the demand in this stinkin bar is holding. i thought the pin and the 2nd hit really killed the buyers there... only a ful consumpiton of the bars legnth - probably to the lower mid half of the bar we can confirm the buyers pushed back by bears. also a clearing of the lows would be good confirmation to hold shorts.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,286
  • Edited 8:00am Jan 31, 2012 7:45am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting MitchWorse
exactly my thoughts, but QM or not... i'm in

TL from daily as stop and it's nice R:R to that pole base. With a partial close ~1.307x
A good confirmation of weakness would be a break of the LTL. A retest as TL resistance would be golden.

As IF said, this could be another bull flag. So far we have three BFs stacked on top of each other in this trend.

ADD: here are the three flags. A new one could form to hit the next supply level.

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  • #1,287
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:06am Jan 31, 2012 8:06am
yup, if it becomes a flag, then i'm stopped.

got to stick to my plan now anyway...no pain, no gain
  • #1,288
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:08am Jan 31, 2012 8:08am
Quoting MitchWorse
yup, if it becomes a flag, then i'm stopped.

got to stick to my plan now anyway...no pain, no gain


Where would you set your target/s?
  • #1,289
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:25am Jan 31, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Tyoon


Where would you set your target/s?
T1 ~1.307x draw a line there
T2 ~1.296x pole base H4

Frankfurts low is the first bump on the road... Looks like a nice "Stops to BE" moment.
  • #1,290
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:27pm Jan 31, 2012 3:27pm
diamond, pole, consolidation, measured pole aiming to base of rally to the left.

straight line? don't think so. let's see how the story unfolds...
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  • #1,291
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:54pm Jan 31, 2012 5:54pm
h and s
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  • #1,292
  • Feb 1, 2012 3:28am Feb 1, 2012 3:28am
I'm not trying to showoff my TLs here but I do want to show how well they can play out. A chart I posted last night and another today. The chart today I just removed the horizontal levels.

If you think about it, diagonal levels are just as important as horizontal, the only difference is that diagonal levels are just skewed.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1328039094

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  • #1,293
  • Feb 1, 2012 3:55am Feb 1, 2012 3:55am
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Hello.
  • #1,294
  • Feb 1, 2012 6:19am Feb 1, 2012 6:19am
Quoting -nate-dogg-
Your questions would be better placed in the PIE Chatroom (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=300889). Better still, do some research of your own by reading the entire thread or visit the chatroom or Romancing the Price (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=288142) threads as many of these questions have been asked and answered before.

@Gabe, I'm sure you are aware of this already, also why ask such inane questions? What if he answers 43% and 29%, how is that going to improve your trading?

Don't...
Why would a statistical question deter people from posting charts?
I have written about this before.
Most of the charts here show only the successful trades and they give the impression that with time the system is foolproof which is probably not the case.
There was a post that mentioned 80% successful trades but that was the only statistical figure.
But back to my question.
Appart from the fact that I am a statistics junky, it would help establish the fact (or contradict it) that early entries are more profitable overall compared with the later entry ones (based on some confirmation).

Gabe
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,295
  • Edited 6:52am Feb 1, 2012 6:40am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting Gabe2004
Why would a statistical question deter people from posting charts?
I have written about this before.
Most of the charts here show only the successful trades and they give the impression that with time the system is foolproof which is probably not the case.
There was a post that mentioned 80% successful trades but that was the only statistical figure.
But back to my question.
Appart from the fact that I am a statistics junky, it would help establish the fact (or contradict it) that early entries are more profitable overall compared with the...
IMO the only way you are going to get a definite answer is by doing your own research. A few of us are doing some back testing studying how price reacts around levels/zones. Perhaps you can go back and conduct a personal investigation in regards to your curiosity. If you feel generous enough you can share your findings here.
  • #1,296
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:13am Feb 1, 2012 7:13am
Amongst other things this morning I have been keeping an eye on the EU 1M chart. On 15M you could see it was forming a bull flag but how could you tell if it was going to follow through or break?

Being PA traders we have to study the strengths and weaknesses of both buyers and sellers to judge the next course of action. S/D are the guidelines or 'limitations' of where buyers and sellers stand. For me looking at candles is not enough, I want to open them up and study the price structure. Although KISS is a good idea, I just can't help myself, I love digging.

You can see how the price structure of this BF indicated bull strength by looking at how the highs and lows reacted to S/D. If you can see it, this flag was developed in two chunks. The second chunk of this flag gave the biggest clues. The LL that hit demand then engulfed (just about) the previous 4 swings. Price then shot back down to demand then as it bounced for the second time the momentum started increasing and both supply levels were blown out.

The rest of my blabbering is on the charts.

I hope this makes sense and helps others to consider things they may not have thought about before.

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  • #1,297
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:14am Feb 1, 2012 7:14am
Hi all, could you provide some advice to a novice on how to identify if a dd or ss zone can hold even thou it's been overrun the zone's high point.

Especially on smaller tfs, prices sometimes overrun these zones before coming back, confusing me whether these zones will still hold.

At other times, I see traders taking entries w/o engulfing confirmation. How do you guys manage such trades? Enter 1/3 in on limit order, then add other 1/3 and 1/3 positions as price moves in your direction? Thank you.


eb
  • #1,298
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:35am Feb 1, 2012 7:35am
Couple of charts, the flags where visible in both EU and the dollar index. EU was showing some nice wicks on the 1H.

I missed these by the way. S/R are very important. I had removed the mid S/R on the Dollar Index. And was doubting my EU S/R that i had drawn this morning.

Ahhh
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  • #1,299
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:36am Feb 1, 2012 7:36am
Did not get T2 yesterday, but satisfied.

Missed the bull train twice today
Quite obvious bull flag in hindsight...did not see the base of first pole coming though.

Shorting the crap out of it now, stops above spike.

Countertrend FTW
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  • #1,300
  • Feb 1, 2012 7:46am Feb 1, 2012 7:46am
Quoting econbizer
Hi all,
I always jump in fully loaded and scale out(?) along the way, securing profit and reducing risk.

Money Management is what i'm trying to improve though, so any comments on R:R, scaling in/out, ordersize combined with S/D are welcome
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