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Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 1, 2012 1:09pm Jan 1, 2012 1:09pm
I am starting a new thread for 2012's first half year (Jan - Jun), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My previous wave counts can be found from:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=318119

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly - [[[i]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[b]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly - [[i]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[b]], [[C]]
Weekly - [i], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [b], [C]
Weekly - I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily - _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly - __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

My labeling for wave formation in a segment = Wave Name + Wave Formation
For example, [A3] = 3 segments in a wave [A]
For example, [A3][B3][C5] = 3-3-5 formation for waves [A][b][C]

My labeling for zigzag is the combination of R.N. Elliott's classical labeling and my wave formation labeling. DO NOT USE R.P.'s W-X-Y(-X-Z) labeling because it creates confusion and lacks the flexibility of changing wave counts.

I am getting lazy on updating the counts because I don't know how many people are following. I might stop writing this at anytime. If you are an audience of my threads, please PM me to let me know so that I won't forget to keep you updated if I stop writing.
  • #2
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:36pm Jan 1, 2012 1:36pm
01/01/2012 Monthly Charts

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...ld-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...ur-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...py-monthly.png
  • #3
  • Jan 1, 2012 2:18pm Jan 1, 2012 2:18pm
I just noticed that I had a typo in gold's month chart.
The final target of gold's super bull market could be $1,960. The extension wave [[[V]]].[[IX]] should be labelled as [[[V]]].[[E]].[IX].
  • #4
  • Jan 1, 2012 9:12pm Jan 1, 2012 9:12pm
01/01/2012 SP Monthly Chart Again

An alternative count:
[[[A]]].[[C]] becomes [[[[IV]]]]
[[['B']]] becomes [[[[V]]]]
[[[C]]].[[C]] becomes [[[A]]]
[[[D]]].[[C]] becomes [[[b]]]
If this is the scenario, we are in [[[C]]] now, and it could go to 550-650 when it finishes.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png
  • #5
  • Jan 1, 2012 9:51pm Jan 1, 2012 9:51pm
Waves [[[A]]]-[[[b]]]-[[[C]]] are not 3-3-5. [[[A]]] is definitely a 3. [[[C]]] is highly possible a 3 too. [[[b]]] could be a 3 or a 5 depending on how we see it.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png

[[[D]]] and [[[E]]] are part of [[[[IV]]]], where the assumption is that they are in a wave-4's abcde triangle. (See above chart.)

The purple line has the assumption that [[[A]]]-[[[b]]]-[[[C]]]-[[[D]]] have completed, and now we are in [[[E]]] to form [[[[IV]]]]. An alternative count is that [[[A]]]-[[[b]]]-[[[C]]] has completed the [[[[IV]]]], and we are in the early stage of [[[[V]]]].
  • #6
  • Jan 1, 2012 9:58pm Jan 1, 2012 9:58pm
Quote
where does your count put the highs in on the sp? i reckon we are going to 1330 ish before trading down into the summer making a decent bounce into end of year

Rothschild - I would guess that SP spot index 1320 area could be where the reversal starts. We need to pay attention if SP ever moves to that area to see if there is any sign of exhaustion.
  • #7
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:57pm Jan 7, 2012 11:57pm
01/08/2012

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...7-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #8
  • Jan 9, 2012 7:21pm Jan 9, 2012 7:21pm
20120109 DJIA Worst Scenario

Quote
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Long term EW count question.
Could 1987 be a end of wave 1, (approx) 2000 end of wave 3,
2008 end of wave 5 ?
If so, then could 2009 bottom be wave A , 2011 top end of a 'B' ?
and where would a projected wave C end ?
Thanks !

jas_in_hbca - It could be. As I believe and mention many times that anything is possible.
With that scenario, we are going to enter a long term bear market soon.
That bear market could have 2.5 more years to go, and it's final destination of the bear movement will be after falling below 2009's low.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attach...postid=3409702
  • #9
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:00pm Jan 13, 2012 9:00pm
01/14/2012

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...4-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #10
  • Jan 20, 2012 11:27pm Jan 20, 2012 11:27pm
01/21/2012

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...1-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #11
  • Jan 22, 2012 10:24am Jan 22, 2012 10:24am
i agree with your projections on gold, but im not sure your wavecounts match mine. i like to keep it simple, so i only use waves 1-5 and then abc.

i think wave 5 of wave A was over at 1522, assuming 1920 was end of wave 3. right now we're in wave B which could go as high as 1760 area. then wave c will break to new lows...maybe mid 1300's?

then we'll have the last wave 5 which will take out the high of 1920, but dont have a projection for it.

note: i'm not an elliott wave junkie. i did this analysis in 10mins looking at monthly chart, just to get a feel for where we are right now in the cycle.
  • #12
  • Jan 23, 2012 10:24pm Jan 23, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting nim1984
i agree with your projections on gold, but im not sure your wavecounts match mine. i like to keep it simple, so i only use waves 1-5 and then abc.
...
nim1984- Thanks for commenting and sharing your thought. Yes, I like your idea of keeping it simple. That is also one of the reasons that I don't agree RP's wave counts most of the time.

Quoting nim1984
...
i think wave 5 of wave A was over at 1522, assuming 1920 was end of wave 3. right now we're in wave B which could go as high as 1760 area. then wave c will break to new lows...maybe mid 1300's?

then we'll have the last wave 5 which will take out the high of 1920, but dont have a projection for it.

note: i'm not an elliott wave junkie. i did this analysis in 10mins looking at monthly chart, just to get a feel for where we are right now in the cycle.
Your scenario is quite possible. In that case, this big ABC correction is in the same degee as that of 2008 one. For now, no matter whether we are in a big ABCDE or a big ABC, the medium long term's momentum is heading up.
  • #13
  • Jan 28, 2012 10:02pm Jan 28, 2012 10:02pm
01/28/2012

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...8-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #14
  • Jan 29, 2012 12:38am Jan 29, 2012 12:38am
for gold, you're saying that the c wave might have ended. you have wave a from 1522-1662, b wave from 1662-1625, and c wave from 1625-1738.

however your c wave is only 113 pts long, compared to wave a's length of 140.

c waves are often longer than a waves, going upto 1.618 times wave a, so why do you think c wave will be truncated this time?
  • #15
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:35pm Jan 29, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting nim1984
for gold, you're saying that the c wave might have ended. you have wave a from 1522-1662, b wave from 1662-1625, and c wave from 1625-1738.

however your c wave is only 113 pts long, compared to wave a's length of 140.

c waves are often longer than a waves, going upto 1.618 times wave a, so why do you think c wave will be truncated this time?
nim1984 - Good point! We don't know if wave-c has finished yet. That was just my guess because GCG12 is rolling over to GCJ12 now. Sometimes a reversal occurs around futures contracts' rollover dates.
  • #16
  • Feb 4, 2012 8:42pm Feb 4, 2012 8:42pm
02/04/2012

Comments are welcome!

P.S., I'll be out of town next whole week and won't be able to reply to any PM or comments.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...4-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png
  • #17
  • Feb 12, 2012 2:05pm Feb 12, 2012 2:05pm
02/12/2012

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...2-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png
  • #18
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:55pm Feb 12, 2012 7:55pm
I'm a big fan of Elliot wave theory and harmonic trading, however you way over complicate the labeling which deters me (and probably others) from following along. Simply stating the pair and TF (in post) with wave counts 1,2,3,4 a,b,c,d and sub waves as 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d ect works just fine. This, of course, is just my opinion, in the whole scheme of things, it doesn't make much difference.

Big ups for the thread though not many people keep up with these sort of threads. So even if you don't conform to my way of thinking do keep posting charts others will surely find it helpful or at the vary least interesting.

  • #19
  • Feb 12, 2012 11:22pm Feb 12, 2012 11:22pm
Quote
1) if SPX goes to 1370 first before C5 formed, the C5 will equal C3, or may be great than C3, right ? but we know C5 can't be great than C3 according Wave Theory. How can we explain this?
C.3 = 84 (1333-1249)
C.5 could be: 1300+84=1384 if C.3=C.5
C.5 could be longer than C.3 (as long as C.3 is not the shortest was in C)
Quote
2) If C5 is really formed at 1370, the Fib 61.5% pull back target should be great than 50 point, right ?
If C.5 ends at around 1384, the ideal correction target for C is where the previous 4 ends (C.4, i.e., 1300 area)
Quote
3) how can we draw the a-b-c waves after C5 (It's not indicated in the chart ??) I mean wave 'b' is great than C5 <-- Does it mean 'extend' wave instead of a-b-c waves (purple lines) ?
The ending of C.5 is the ending of wave-C. After that a wave-D could be formed. We don't know if wave-D will be in regular or irregular correction form until we see the market's behavior.
  • #20
  • Feb 13, 2012 6:25pm Feb 13, 2012 6:25pm
Quoting johnny2pips
I'm a big fan of Elliot wave theory and harmonic trading, however you way over complicate the labeling which deters me (and probably others) from following along. Simply stating the pair and TF (in post) with wave counts 1,2,3,4 a,b,c,d and sub waves as 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d ect works just fine. This, of course, is just my opinion, in the whole scheme of things, it doesn't make much difference.

Big ups for the thread though not many people keep up with these sort of threads. So even if you don't conform to my way of thinking do keep posting charts others...
johnny2pips - Thanks for commenting and the suggestion. Please take a look the very first post of this thread, and it will give us an idea about the convention of my wave labeling. It is actually much easier to read and much less confusing than that of most famous EW techinicians. Yes, I agree that "it doesn't make much difference" on different labeling ways because we EW techinicians speak the same language - impulsive vs corrective waves.
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