XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

The last time there was a Large Symmetrical triangle on the daily
It broke bullish

The price had been HIGH and then Declined to about 1050 if I am remembering
correctly, it is posted in the first post of this thread
Links POST 1

PRICE made high at 1222. Bottomed out at 1050 - then formed a long triangle.
See the chart, it's easier to understand than this one.
THen AT 1100 appx it broke.

The reason why I am mentioning continued reversal in price is due to past triangles. Patterns often repeat and sometimes create smaller patterns afterwards called orphans. (like the kids)

Now if the measure of the width was appx 1050 to 1250 lets just say to make it easier = (200 USD)- our target from the point of BREAK of the triangle price would be 200 USD higher so 1300 from 1100 break.


HERE is an Explanation of the new triangle
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post5329702

In the simplest terms I can explain it to you
The triangle always forms pointing from Left to right
BECAUSE
The price moves from left to right
So you take the Width of the right side in price say - 400 USD
and use that to measure an approximate target.
FROM the POINT of BREAKOUT possibly after a test

HOW TO PLAY SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLES TO MAKE MONEY.

A. if you want to play the pattern safe, you set an order over the top of the triangle
-- breakout trading
B. If you are more aggressive you play it from the bottom or middle in line with what you feel the result will be
IT helps TO use the Recent Price Action and The PREVAILING TREND.

This is done after the move has usually
1. Broken the resistance line
2. Tested it
3. Moved either higher or lower (Bullish or Bearish)
4. Or a decisive breakout or both

FF see edits made to last post refresh your browser and use the links I gave you.

CORRECTION

I knew I was wrong!!!!

THE MEASURE IS MADE FROM THE POINT OF BREAK.

Look below

This means break at 1650 appx + 450 = TARGET of 2100
http://stockcharts.com/school/data/m...conti-sun2.png

They can be used as both continuations and measures for trades.

Here is an example of a continuation with a bearish break

http://stockcharts.com/school/data/m...-conti-cnc.png

In the next post I will reference the link so you guys can read.
These patterns are used for stock trading, although they can be used in any financial market that has a chart.

So this is why Bemac said he'll only be in when market closes at above 1722 for 3 consecutive days.

So this triangle means a lot, now i understand, thank you again X brother

But again:

No.1:
Do we measure this triangle along with Time, if not then we can see a fall too, right?

No.2:
How much can we trust this Technicality? what is the pass ratio if we look at history?

Thanks for your time and effort man !

"Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation)
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time. While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. We will examine each part of the symmetrical triangle individually, and then provide an example with Conseco.

Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.

Prices sometimes return to the breakout point of apex on a reaction move before resuming in the direction of the breakout. This return can offer a second chance to participate with a"
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...rical_triangle

Well - start by reading the last post I just made.
Look at some of the past triangles I posted in # 1 post.

They have all broken bullish and the price has continued to rise since I started this thread at 1050, one could have bought
(kicking self) and simply held a HUGE position exiting half at 1920 for an almost 1000 USD move, that is a big deal for doing nothing besides holding a trade.

Also the prevailing trend helps to decide what usually will happen. With any Bearish correction in any market the price is threatened.

The price had been falling and respecting a bearish line TO AN EXTENT ONLY,
A Bullish standpoint also to counter that would be "we hit 1920 all time high, this is a needed correction, price remains above 1500 500 gained since 1000 break, the price is simply coiling." also
yes
The markets slow down significantly during the new year time and holiday seasons. Many go on vacation or just take holiday from work in the financial business, at this time.

Referring to Bemac's break time that is.

Remember the difference in the size of the FX Global market in comparison to separate stock markets.

Things move faster so don't take everything literally,
and also remember

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN AT ANY TIME IN THIS GAME

NOTHING

Is set in STONE.

It is very hard also to do technical analysis for these patterns even on the weekly, the monthly is likely near impossible. You wouldn't see a 100 USD bull flag if it hit you in the face on the monthly.

Just want to say thank you for the lesson on the triangles. I always read your posts and after a few months, things are starting to sink in ! Your posts are always very informative and I appreciate you sharing your knowledge with us all

looking at the weekly, bias is up from 1686-93 area
1755-60
1686-93
1627
mon. daily
up from 1708
silver weekly up from 31.83-91 area with eye on 32.30 area also
mon.daily, bias is up from 33.11
34.30-50
33.11
31.83-91
she sure acts like she wants to continue to climb.

Thanks X for the detailed explanation

Thanks Lilpip for your updates

It has started to look Bullish to me now, i had a different plan in my mind, a fall close to 1800s or in the 1800s, but it has started to look different now!

how I see gold, I think the orange channel is about to expand,
but could already find resistance in the blue box,
maybe taking a little breath and retrace to break it and testing those
red lines above. Let's see what goes first.

Cheers

S.

Hi all,

I agree with Shaggy,

If the prices face with resistance between 1740-1750 area, I will wait for the confirmation for the reversal.

horizontal levels to watch and possible scenario

Looks like pullback / correction I was expecting Friday is coming a trading day later. At least that is how Euro is acting tonight.

Hi Folks. Got the 1722 beat & now I will PLAY a Soft Drop Back to 1,722 before a rise to 1,745.
Will see what is offered then.

B

Those of you that lose on this move; Check your Balance.push North

What do you mean by push North?

hhh On a blank sheet with no other influences I expect Price to Rise
I won't make it any simpler.
If You Don't KNOW Why... DON"T Trade.
Man. No Free Lunch.
This is Work.

BMc

hi guys.. my outlook on gold

Who cares to agree