M&W-Trading

ok man

It's been a full year since the thread was started. I wonder how many have actually taken the course. I would like to ask the students couple of questions if you don't mind, private message me. Thanks!

EURUSD

Hey Sam I watched steves webinar. Sounds like he knows what he’s talking about! I have seen those fake out moves and then the price run in the other direction.
The gbpusd did it this morning. I was wondering is this how you trade and did you take Steve’s course?

What are the other details that one needs to know, is it just look for the fake out setups and trade them?
I loved what he said in his webinar. That’s what I like to hear, dudes making bread! It’s all inspiring and lets me know that I can do the same thing.

Quoting hart3000

Disliked

FxReX -- Sorry to water down your statement a little bit. Even 10 winners in a row don't prove much statistically. Could be just luck (with a relatively high probability, a 10 winner streak happens). Only after the average positive results of 40 trades, you may suspect that something else but randomness is at work. Only after 200 trades, you may deduct high statistical significance.

Ignored

FxReX -- Just realized that I got a bit carried away here and apologize. Actually, 10 winners in a row do already tell you something. Nevertheless, my statement comes from the bottom of my heart, 1000s of hours of fumbling with trading methods and having fooled myself over and over before finally finding something that works.

Best trading success and regards,

Very Nice big FAT M setup on the EurUSD should be good for a few days drop, and possibly pullback shorts at the 50ema out of Asia into London.

Thoughts?

Blue = 50ema
White = 200ema
MACD Two-line = Make shift TDI
RSI = TDI Green Line (Lowest indicator)

I have communicated with his students- some think it is worth the 5K and others not. It's the whole veil of secrecy, confidentiality agreement stuff that bothers me. Just like people here who try to ferret out who may be leaking info on the course.

As with ALL systems it is trading psychology and money management that will make you successful. There are plenty of simple systems (crossing MA's for example) that I have seen work quite well.

I don't think SM offers anything original, he has just repackaged it and added new lingo that makes it sound different.

Right you are - M's or double tops, W's or double bottoms are not new. Pullbacks to the MA's are a simple strategy in itself. TDI - Dean Malone has several days even years of how to successfully use it FREE on his site at Compass. The key is consistent effort. I've jumped from one system to another way too much and have finally found a home.

The best thing to do is just look at the charts historically. Reverse engineer what you see. Look at each day and see what PA is doing at the High of the Day and what it does at the Low of the day. Identify what other influential factors are nearby.

Observe the "Price Structure" at those confluence points. Are there Impluse Bars? Is there a Support or Resistance nearby (OTA Method), is a Previous H/L nearby, have we made 3 pushs in any given direction and which one is lager of a move (Things happen in 3's by nature - Fibbinacci), I see this very clearly when I use APB - Average Price Bars (Heiken Ashi like).

I thank another gentlemen for introducing me to TDI/APBs and a very simple method "Big E" as some of you may know. His thread is great for TDI nuances, in the band out of the band, above 68 below 32, while his method has morphed over the years by many, he's touted just keep things simple. The thread for those interested is "Trading Made Simple". Understanding Price Action is Key, indicators are just a secondary confirmation for us nervous nellies.

After so many years what I finally realized if you want to be successfull you have to put in the leg work - start up your simulator and watch markets at all different times and then choose the time you plan to trade and look at only setups or structures at that time of day, don't practice Asian Session if you don't plan to take trades, don't practice US close if agian you don't plan to trade that either. Focus you efforts and make notes snap charts, create binders, update trade logs and put in the time to be successful and the money will take care of itself. I am at that stage now logging, practicing, anticipating, so things become second nature. Good traders do a lot of thing intuitively so when learning we don't see or hear everything from them so the only way to learn is get down in the weeds and play.

On the TMS thread there is a really good simulator that when put at 32 you really see the fast moves and get a feel for market speed. I finally understand what Sam Sieden ment by go look at 2 or three books for stop placement and you'll know where the stop hunts will be. He won't tell you the placement but on FX it's pretty much 25 to 50 pips. I did my own research on simulator and found that to be true.

The best plan for anyone new or struggling is to break down what your trying to do (It's working for me)

1 - focus on Broad Analysis first (master that for at least week by itself)
2 - then move to multiple time frame analysis (master just that then merge 1 and 2 another week of just this)
3 - then proceed to identify entries (master that week 3)
4 - then exits (Week 4)
5 - then put it all together (week 5)

So many times we try to master the whole method at once and we fail. But it's very easy to isolate one and practice over and over.

Writing this helps me understand my learing track - b/c if you can't explain it you certainly won't be able to implement it. So I welcome comments and suggestions that intuion may be hiding.

Hope I didn't waste your time and the info I shared was useful to someone, I know it's useful to me, because when I type and read it further ingrains it in my head.

Look at the massive move from the break of yesterday's low to the break of yesterday's high.... notice I put on the ATR set to 1 see the candle size's spike huge... and now we are starting to stall... keep an eye and let's see if we get an M on the 15m. It just blew through the Asian High of 1.3047 to a new high of 1.3103 56 pips could that be the stop hunts for today?

I hate the time of day so needless to say I'll just watch myself and see how price behaves in here. Also note if you look at a Daily it's butting up against the 50ema.

I had the same bearish bias after that nice M pattern, but it kept going up into Thursday asian session. How would you have traded EURUSD long?

Yes. Good, solid and consistent results. I'm very happy with it.

Whatcha got?

LAFF

Thanks to those Traders who have posted charts and provided invaluable advice. The charts posted by Dito042 and the recent article by FX-Trader have been extremely informative not withstanding the Thread originator, Zabana and the previous thread by Calerone.

This right here.

I'm probably one of the slower learners, but it took me 5 years to finally be able to "see" the market correctly enough to be consistently profitable.

For me personally it has been a psychological process. Your mileage may vary.

LAFF

I know you didn't ask me but here's my 2 cents. I didn't trade this pair yesterday but the setup on the GBPUSD was nearly identical.

On the 15min chart, a lopsided W formed yesterday between 7:15am EST and 10:45 am. It was a good setup because it had the MA crosses to support it, and the timing was good. I don't usually pay attention to formations that don't have the MA crosses - too many false positives. Even then, I back up every position with a stop and reverse.

I use the 15min chart for setups, and use the higher timeframes for confirmation. The big-ass M on the hour chart was just too long and slow for me to take a short position seriously. I trade intraday.

LAFF

Thanks. I can see that W you were referring to in GBPUSD too.

I had a Short Bias too, with that large H&S Structure (15m) so the W that came at the US Open I was thinking would just be pullback to the 50/200ema. Which was maybe 20-30 pips so I balked at it - I literally canceled my order screen (shoulda coulda woulda). Needless to say it was a fakeout by the schemers. They ran it 265 pips negating the H&S. Now it continued to pull away. So are we in some sort of reset cycle looking to build higher to the next potential M top? If so we may see pullbacks to the 50ema upward now. (I hate counter trend trading I've always lost doing it)

The Cycle is more apparent on the 4Hr with APBs or HA bars on....

I went short the EURUSD this morning at 8:45amEST and closed at +50 pips a few minutes ago.

I do not like to overthink the MW - if the pattern is there on the 15 minute chart and there are no obvious barriers or counterformations on the higher timeframes, then it's a go.

The secret, I have found, is taking an entry no further than 25 pips away from the top or bottom, then setting a stop and reverse target a few pips beyond the high and low, which I trigger only if a 15 minute candle closes above or below it. This keeps my drawdown manageable, prevents me from getting triggered on a spike, and puts me in the right direction to recover a 25-30 pip loss and still end up in the positive for the day.

Good day for me. Hope it was for y'all too. Happy trading!

LAFF

You mean like bracketing 25 pips above and below, and enter on breakouts above the top or below the bottom? Then why do you need the stop-and-reverse if you just trade the breakout?

No - not breakouts. Sorry - I should have said I set stop and reverse beyond the high OR the low - depending on whether it's an M or W.

The object of the game is to enter as close to the top or bottom as I can achieve it. If the price gets away from me - further than 25 pips away from the top or bottom - then I don't take the position.

Not every M or W setup results in a 100 pip run against the trend. Sometimes they triple top and/or run sideways. Sometimes they fake it out and then continue in the original direction. In this case, I don't want to be much more than 30 pips down before the reversal confirmation candle closes and triggers my stop and reverse.

If I go short right at the top of an M and set my stop and reverse 5 pips above the high, then my drawdown is 5 pips plus the depth of the reversal candle. If I go short 25 pips below the top of the M, then my drawdown is 30 pips plus the depth of the reversal candle. Much harder to recover from that kind of loss if they decide to run back north.

LAFF

so you don't just short 25 pips below the top of the M, but also wait for reversal candle. because if you placed your stop and reverse 5 pips above the high, the drawdown is fixed 30pips not more.

i am considering your idea .... thanks