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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #30,341
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:57am Jan 25, 2012 11:57am
Quoting indianguyinny24
please do...would appreciate big time...beauty lies everywhere...

i remeber days when i will go in fiels in punjab and have a bath in the tubewell best days of my life and then go to sugarcane field...

now i am in wall st in NYC (which i wanted to be ) and wont lie miss those days..
V
sure will do sometime,

haha....summer just passed and yes we had a lot of time on tubewells....
these days we go play cricket on sundays in villages around. lots of sugarcanes........strange that i want to be in wall st. and you want to be here.

lets deal it the way a peaceful warrior would have dealt. what time is it? where are you?

regards
  • #30,342
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:59am Jan 25, 2012 11:59am
Quoting fti
Generally about 190+ banks would like make prices in 10 mio worth at any given time, but if any would like challange us moving it then big boys fight.
Just look at the prices flips on your platforms, you will get the idea soon enough.
regards
whoa....Chief some more on this please.
because it is in the NOW time, it will make its point. is someone challenging big boys now?? i wonder

regards
  • #30,343
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:00pm Jan 25, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Chief,

I only managed the first 200pages so far and going thru it again a few times... At times, I will jump to random pages say... 700 or 1000 to catch a glimpse of the discussion. I find that it brings new meaning to my understanding of your teachings.

It's a lifelong pursue for me... Lessons about life and staying strong in the mindset...

You said it should not be what I'm looking for, but rather what I'm looking at. To live the moment and seize the NOW... I think I am beginning to understand a bit of your vast knowledge.

I will...
noted.
Just no need rush and force learning.
Relax read and think.
Then as your experience grows, those stuff will come to you.
Just let it blend into you then you make it your own.

Life is a learning experience , learn stuff all the time.
I just learned i am no more whiskey man. after being on the wagon for such a long time.

Adjust and adapt , so long as you have mind , you will learn, and as you learn , your performance in life must improve. How much, will depends on your rigidity or lack off. Don't under estimateyour mind, its very powerful, only if you allow it.

1 chap was writing me that he's making card files of my postings. i wrote back, you be as smart as the filing system only. Haven't heard from him since.

You see, I am presenting and trying give, takes long time understand depending on the person, once internalised, is as if doesn't exist. all compresses into the person.


regards
  • #30,344
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:08pm Jan 25, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting cuthbert
sure will do sometime,

haha....summer just passed and yes we had a lot of time on tubewells....
these days we go play cricket on sundays in villages around. lots of sugarcanes........strange that i want to be in wall st. and you want to be here.

lets deal it the way a peaceful warrior would have dealt. what time is it? where are you?

regards
Nice one ..

What time is it ..you mean NOW..

Where are you now ...I am HERE

V
  • #30,345
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:13pm Jan 25, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Nice one ..

What time is it ..you mean NOW..

Where are you now ...I am HERE

V
  • #30,346
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:14pm Jan 25, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting cuthbert
whoa....Chief some more on this please.
because it is in the NOW time, it will make its point. is someone challenging big boys now?? i wonder

regards
nah, i am out of the circle already. retired.
how would i know?
but only can feel the pulses now.

regards
  • #30,347
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:19pm Jan 25, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting fti
ok the low down stuff.
there were 7 of us boys in top tier banks. We quoted mostly USD/DMK as that was mostly the market then. We perpectually spoke to one another on outside lines and we was watching each other all the time. We can see where each of us was quoting on the reuter ASAP page. Furthermore we had Tokyo and London voice boxes on so we knew where everyone was. Then we could also see all the biggest orders tickets all qued up in our books for filling.At any given time we could absorb up to about 10 billion usd worth of punches before...
Thanks, this does make alot of sense as to how things move, I worked out that every dealer had to work together for the common cause but now I'm assuming the market gets volotile when the big boys are in disagreement (temporary) what I'm trying to work out is if I have a rough idea of how the market makers think if I could follow them on a naked chart alone obviously its deeper than this but I only need to be correct 75 percent of the time for small movements. The reason I'm asking all this is I saw a seminar that didnt go into too much detail but was saying how market makers operate and it got me thinking that its just like a game of chess when the big boys are asleep
  • #30,348
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:20pm Jan 25, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting diy_
Thanks, this does make alot of sense as to how things move, I worked out that every dealer had to work together for the common cause but now I'm assuming the market gets volotile when the big boys are in disagreement (temporary) what I'm trying to work out is if I have a rough idea of how the market makers think if I could follow them on a naked chart alone obviously its deeper than this but I only need to be correct 75 percent of the time for small movements. The reason I'm asking all this is I saw a seminar that didnt go into too much detail but...
Nope not fight.
its the feds again.
they on the wires reported seems their tank broke down, due to rigid force easing the short term money markets.
I was talking on here so missed it as well.
All markets responded. stops tripped all over.
semms the feds and euro is at a race at whos gonna get the dunce cap.
  • #30,349
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:29pm Jan 25, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting fti
punches before we moved the markets. When we moved you not want to be in our way , unless you wished to be crushed under a tank.

Fact is we made markets respecting where each of us wanted it.
We were operational Far East Zone, there's the London boys and then the NY boys, Ny boys are no so hard workers so after lunch NY , markets are left to the whims of the futures exchanges to determine.
Any more stuff you need to know?

Generally about 190+ banks would like make prices in 10 mio worth at any given time, but if any would like challange us...
Nice post! I like the ones giving us an insight into how it works, like this one.
  • #30,350
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:32pm Jan 25, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting fti
Nope not fight.
its the feds again.
they on the wires reported seems their tank broke down, due to rigid force easing the short term money markets.
I was talking on here so missed it as well.
All markets responded. stops tripped all over.
semms the feds and euro is at a race at whos gonna get the dunce cap.
I'm slowly starting to see the picture now, thank you very much
  • #30,351
  • Jan 25, 2012 6:19pm Jan 25, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting fti
noted.
Just no need rush and force learning.
Relax read and think.
Then as your experience grows, those stuff will come to you.
Just let it blend into you then you make it your own.

Life is a learning experience , learn stuff all the time.
I just learned i am no more whiskey man. after being on the wagon for such a long time.

Adjust and adapt , so long as you have mind , you will learn, and as you learn , your performance in life must improve. How much, will depends on your rigidity or lack off. Don't under estimateyour mind, its very...
Got it, Chief

物急必反

I didn't allow myself time to internalise in the past... and pls allow me to quote you, Chief.

"..To know and to do can be very just a little different.
To know and yet do wrong is truely failure.
But sometime we get so blinded that because we know, we think we are doing."

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...7639&page=1725

What you have done and are still doing is no small feat... especially trying to educate stiff necked logs like me

Hope you managed to catch some good rest. And have a beautiful day ahead, Chief.

regards
  • #30,352
  • Edited 12:38am Jan 26, 2012 12:06am | Edited 12:38am
good and rested.
Ok since you chaps can understand and are interested,
i shall continue with my ranting.

The reson why i came to the forex retil seek information , was to try understand if the markets traded at retail was indeeed the interbank markets , resized for trading.
my conclusion is no.
there seems little honour in the retail.
so the system is not interbank, is worst than interbro.

regards
  • #30,353
  • Edited 12:48am Jan 26, 2012 12:08am | Edited 12:48am
The secrets of the OTC interbank system.
----------------------------------------------
The Interbank system is an HONOUR system.
Is made up of honourable banks quoting to each other prices of money.
they can call each other by myrid ways like over the reuters dealing console or via telex, or by phone or if necessary walking over to the other's bank dealing room to deal if necessary , if all else communication methods fails.
Dealers will make to each other prices of money and there is a standard and practise, where this is quoted.
Prices are made 2 ways, bid and offer. If any dealer quotes you where you think he is "not in the market" then you can alway correct them by trading them the direction where you think they are out of the market.
All dealers will honour your trade up to the "credit limit" that you have established with them.
A dealer will not hesitate to remove your such credit limits and refuse to deal with any party that they feel have violated their honour in any way. Even if you was a central bank.


The Interbank system comprises predominantly 2 markets.
1.The forex market where they deal in foreign currencies. This is done thru the spot currencies desk.
2. The money market, also known as funds, where they lend and borrow currencies as per their needs to conduct banking activities.

Do you understand?
ok now questions and answers time.


regards
  • #30,354
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:48am Jan 26, 2012 12:48am
Quoting fti
good and rested.
Ok since you chaps can understand and are interested,
i shall continue with my ranting.

The reson why i came to the forex retil seek information , was to try understand if the markets traded at retail was indeeed the interbank markets , resized for trading.
my conclusion is no.
there seems little honour in the retail.
so the system is not interbank, is worst than interbro.

regards
Hi Chief,

I am not ready to ask in depth questions yet. A simple question if I may...
You mentioned that there seems little honour in retail... what does that mean specifically? Retails do not honour what they quote?

Hope you can enlighten me...

regards
  • #30,355
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:54am Jan 26, 2012 12:54am
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Chief,

I am not ready to ask in depth questions yet. A simple question if I may...
You mentioned that there seems little honour in retail... what does that mean specifically? Retails do not honour what they quote?

Hope you can enlighten me...

regards
In the interbank dealing arena , dealer make prices to counterparties.(only banks)
this prices are valid and tradable for the size requested and for as long as the he has not called "off" on his price.

There is no such thing as requotes or seconds flipping of prices as inducement to deal.

To not honour a hit and requote is consider an act of dishonour. The consequences will be excommunications.
Depending on the tier of the bank, prices can be held for as long as 10 seconds at lower tiers up to 5 minutes at higher tiers, depending on the honour of the dealer. before being called "off".


see the difference?
  • #30,356
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:58am Jan 26, 2012 12:58am
Quoting fti
In the dealing arena , dealer make prices to counterparties.(only banks)
this prices are valid and tradable for the size requested and for as long as the he has not called "off" on his price.

There is no such thing as requotes or seconds flipping of prices as inducement to deal.

To not honour a hit and requote is consider an act of dishonour. The consequences will be excommunications.
Thanks, Chief. I got it.

Seems we retail have not much bargaining powers here... "beggars can't be choosers" I guess. I always feel like there's some kinda slippage after I hit the bid/ask button.

regards
  • #30,357
  • Edited 1:41am Jan 26, 2012 1:05am | Edited 1:41am
Quoting N_Trader
Thanks, Chief. I got it.

Seems we retail have not much bargaining powers here... "beggars can't be choosers" I guess. I always feel like there's some kinda slippage after I hit the bid/ask button.

regards
the thing is i believe that none of you deals ever reach the interbank market.( due to its unmarketable size)
and that your prices are not reflective of where interbanks are trading.
The interbank markets indicative markets are quoted on reuter ASAP page.
is quote in 10 pips spreads at all times, indicating where the markets range is.
But when interbanks call each other direct, then the actual quotes of bid and offer is 2 pips for USD/DMK, (and 3 pips for cable and USD/Yen and majors, minors and exotics have their own protocol.)
and normally within the range of the 10 pips spread on ASAP page.
This reflects the book that the dealers are carrying at the moment and which side the customers of the bank had been hitting the bank, thru its TMU.(treasury Marketing Unit, is a separate desk that deals with bank customers, no customers can deal with interbank spot directly.)

Eg. so if for instance, if i have lots usd and another quotes up, then i know that he needs usd. I can call him direct or he can call me. and i can sell him the usd that he needs.

So if the prices at retail is not interbank, then brokers who are telling customers that it is dealing thru interbank is in fact lying thru their teeth. In fact they maybe just bucketing you.

The fact is the interbank prices are very stable prices, and until some market moving news hits the wire, or exceptionally large hits are going thru, it seldom moves out of 20 pips range. This mostly because interbank is very liquid and hardly 10billion can move it a couple of pips.

So if your little ant positions are moving markets then you must rethink about the liquidity of the market you're in.
regards
  • #30,358
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:34am Jan 26, 2012 1:34am
Hi fti,

many retail brokers claim they get price feeds from 10+ different tier 1 banks.

Assuming this is true (even if the trades are executed in their secondary market) and based on what you are explaining and the sizes traded at retail, Would it be safe to assume than in reality, even if the feeds are direct, we, at retail are trading at a 10 pip real spread? (meaning that the broker can move price wherever he wants inside the interbank spread)

thanks for your great insights
  • #30,359
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:36am Jan 26, 2012 1:36am
Quoting fti
the thing is i believe that none of you deals ever reach the interbank market.( due to its unmarketable size)
and that your prices are not reflective of where interbanks are trading.
The interbank markets indicative markets are quoted on reuter ASAP page.
is quote in 10 pips spreads at all times, indicating where the markets range is.
But when interbanks call each other direct, then the actual quotes of bid and offer is 2 pips for USD/DMK, (and 3 pips for cable and USD/Yen and majors, minors and exotics have their own protocol.)
and normally...
Wow... This is top secret stuff... thanks, Chief. I had no idea how retail can manage contracts as small as $1. Like Oanda for example... and they give really small spread.. 1.2 for EU most of the time.

So there is good reason to believe that the market that retailers are trading is not real? But it has to somehow be close to interbank rates right?

At the very minimum, most retail brokers are in sync... surely there is a reference that all are following to make the market?

Sorry for my delayed response as i'm still on my day job

regards
  • #30,360
  • Edited 2:08am Jan 26, 2012 1:46am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting N_Trader
Wow... This is top secret stuff... thanks, Chief. I had no idea how retail can manage contracts as small as $1. Like Oanda for example... and they give really small spread.. 1.2 for EU most of the time.

So there is good reason to believe that the market that retailers are trading is not real? But it has to somehow be close to interbank rates right?

At the very minimum, most retail brokers are in sync... surely there is a reference that all are following to make the market?

Sorry for my delayed response as i'm still on my day job

regards...
Oanda has specifically told you that they are market making to you. That they will take on all your trade up to a maximum of 10 mio for any hit.
So they are market making a secondary market.

You asked..."But it has to somehow be close to interbank rates right?"
yes the big fig may be in line. But their prices will always be at a "basis" to where they believe the market is at. Even oanda will not have a line to the interbank market as they are not a bank. So all the time they mostly guessing where market is on their own and they mostly guessing from their book of exposures, i believe.

And it has come to my knowledge , that many brokers using name as bank does not and are not fuctional as Banks.
I just wondering, if they use name as bank, then they must surely come under jurisdiction of the Banking Acts, and structure .
But seems must be a loop hole some where.
I am still awaiting see if i can find any undertakers or coffin sellers name themselves a Bank. A Soul Bank?

regards
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