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  • #1,181
  • Jan 21, 2012 9:16pm Jan 21, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting Ifmyante
Effective learning for me certainly had something to do with winning and losing trades, I can't deny that.
I cannot post in the RTP thread but thank you for your reply.

Maybe my thinking is too rigid and I cannot arrive at a set of rules by watching the charts, but then again

Quoting Ifmyante
We have no hard and fast set of rules
maybe like you wrote , there is no set of rules.

If that is the case, how does one develop a trading strategy? More specifically, how do you trade if not by some set of rules...

Now I am really confused but that might be an age related problem.....
Every rule has an exception. Except for this one.
  • #1,182
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:22pm Jan 21, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting Gabe2004
I cannot post in the RTP thread but thank you for your reply.

Maybe my thinking is too rigid and I cannot arrive at a set of rules by watching the charts, but then again



maybe like you wrote , there is no set of rules.

If that is the case, how does one develop a trading strategy? More specifically, how do you trade if not by some set of rules...

Now I am really confused but that might be an age related problem.....
I believe most of the successful if not all have a set of rules they are trading by. I have about 45 pages. Some may have one page. But I have specified my standards for trend, entries, exits, when to use an indicator or when to draw a fib. etc.

In my opinion this thread is about locating the S-D zones on any time frame. As for entries some take it with the touch of the zone others a reversal out of it. Then some will set pendings. The key to take away from this thread is understanding PA. Then figure out how to trade it according to your style and/or personality.

I hope this is some help
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,183
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:12am Jan 22, 2012 2:12am
PA S/D trading just isn't about rules at all.

Rufus was absolutely right about trading a TF from zone to zone - it is as simple as that.

The tf that makes the most sense to me is M1. There, price tells you exactly what it's going to do next. If a zone there breaks, price will go to the next clean M1 zone, and react. If you have a very fast ecn broker with tight spreads, you can take every pip that the market is offering, with no dd, and with no hoping that a fresh zone is going to break.

Regardless of the TF that you trade in, price tells you what it will do next. Learn to read the signs and act quickly upon them, and you'll wonder why you ever looked for rules in the first place.

So please, forget about learning rules - instead, just learn to read what price is telling you. When you do this, you'll be free of fear and greed, and be totally in tune with the market.

Best

If
  • #1,184
  • Jan 22, 2012 10:19am Jan 22, 2012 10:19am
I posted this chart on PIE last thursday because I wanted to address the issue of trusting a level. Unfortunately all I got were condescending remarks regarding my perceived poor risk reward ratio on these trades so I would like to explain something. When I take a trade without any confirmation, I tend to do so whis a much smaller size than I would if I had some confirmation.

I risked 0.1% of my equity on each one, 0.6% in total. I felt very much protected by the combination of a clear and fresh supply level and a big round number just above. The first three trades had stops of around 40 pips and the three higher ones had stops of around 20 pips so they were twice the size, thus creating something like an inverted pyramid. Seeing that a new demand level had formed on M5, I decided to take my risk off the table slightly above that level. I normally would have kept some running but I didn't get filled and my spread increased quite dramatically at the time, to me this means that the counterparties on my platform can't offload the risk immediately so they were unwilling to fill my order.

The point I want to make is that good money management is about controlling your risk and taking trades you feel strongly about, you never know where exactly you are going to exit, at least I don't. I may have a target but if circumstances change I am happy to get the hell out with some money in my pocket.
Focussing on risk reward ratios is quite nonsensical imho because only your risk is definite, your reward may vary. Risk reward ratios can only be calculated in hindsight. Surely, some setups are better than others and I am not particularly proud of this trade, but in the end I was happy to get paid for it.

The second chart is a trade I took shortly thereafter, we have a steep drop from supply and a bearish engulfing candle , so I was able to take this trade with a much smaller stop and thus a much bigger size.

I do trade for a living, I started trading on my own account almost a year and a half ago, with a very basic correlation strategy combined with some momentum and divergeance indicators. I found the results too random, I was profitable but some days I worked my ass off and in the end only my broker got paid. Then I discovered PIE and YTD I am up 29% with about 65 % winning trades and a 1 to 1.4 RR, which makes me incredibly happy considering I need 5% each month to cover my expenses.

This business is about exposing yourself to luck, and do so in the smartest possible way and PIE and all its contributors have helped me a lot, for which I am very grateful.
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  • #1,185
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:21am Jan 22, 2012 11:21am
[quote=L. Park;5316101]
I risked 0.1% of my equity on each one, 0.6% in total. I felt very much protected by the combination of a clear and fresh supply level and a big round number just above. The first three trades had stops of around 40 pips and the three higher ones had stops of around 20 pips so they were twice the size, thus creating something like an inverted pyramid. Seeing that a new demand level had formed on M5, I decided to take my risk off the table slightly above that level. I normally would have kept some running but I didn't get filled and my spread increased quite dramatically at the time, to me this means that the counterparties on my platform can't offload the risk immediately so they were unwilling to fill my order.

The point I want to make is that good money management is about controlling your risk and taking trades you feel strongly about, you never know where exactly you are going to exit, at least I don't. I may have a target but if circumstances change I am happy to get the hell out with some money in my pocket.
quote]


What you posted reminded me of one of my favorite lines from "Reminiscences of A Stock Operator"

“I can’t sleep” answered the nervous one.
“Why not?” asked the friend.
“I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about. It is wearing me out. What can I do?”
“Sell down to the sleeping point”, answered the friend.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,186
  • Jan 22, 2012 12:28pm Jan 22, 2012 12:28pm
Thanks again for this mate. I only just found it.

I also thought it would be worth bringing up again for anyone who missed it. Very informative.

Quoting Miky
on Tyoon's wish:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1326028492

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1326028492

USD/CAD trade.
MIKY
  • #1,187
  • Jan 22, 2012 1:04pm Jan 22, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks again for this mate. I only just found it.

I also thought it would be worth bringing up again for anyone who missed it. Very informative.
Thanks Ty
--Be in the NOW or get lost in time.--
  • #1,188
  • Edited 5:03pm Jan 22, 2012 3:44pm | Edited 5:03pm
Hello fellow PIE traders. I have mentioned doing some backtesting on PIE methods to fast track my practise. A dear coder Kilian (http://www.forexfactory.com/kilian19) has created a back testing indie for me and of course anyone is free to use it. He has said that he is going to improve the coding in the next few days, so when he does I will update the indie on this post.

There are a few things you need to do first:

1. Right click on your chart and go into properties > common tab > switch off 'Chart on foreground'.

2. In the indicator options make the FillColor the same as your chart background.

Extended instructions:

3. If you are using the backtest on the weekend you need to download MT4 Ticker (https://www.fx1.net/wiki/pmwiki.php/MT4Ticker/MT4Ticker).

4. For a faster navigation on MT4 you can download MetaTrader Hotkey Extender (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=322888). I find switching TFs much easier with this. You can also make the scrolling of the starting vertical line smoother by holding down F5 while dragging.

All you need to do to work this is drag the starting (left) vertical line back and forth to hide or reveal the chart. You can move the ending line also. Alternately you can right click on the vertical line > Vertical line properties > change date/time under the parameters tab.

If it's not obvious, this is how I am using it:

1. Change the date parameters on the start vertical line to whatever. For example, 2010.11.15 13:00 (it can be any arbitrary date).
2. The chart will be blank. Press the enter key and enter the date that you set the vertical line to (eg. 2010.11.15 13:00) in the little white box in the bottom left of chart. Your chart needs to have the chart data preloaded. If it does not then switch to a higher TF and scroll back.
3. Mark out levels, zones, TLs, fibs, ect. As you would in normal trading environment.
4. Drag the starting vertical line at your own pace to reveal the proceeding chart on any TF and study the PA around your marked points.

This is a great trial and error process to fine tune your methods at a much faster pace than on demo or live.

Enjoy

If you have any questions or suggestions give me a PM.

..
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  • #1,189
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:24pm Jan 22, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting Tyoon
Kilian has created a back testing indie for me
Absolutely excellent

MTF backtesting made easy

Thanks so much to Kilian for creating it, and to you for sharing
  • #1,190
  • Jan 23, 2012 2:12am Jan 23, 2012 2:12am
Quoting Tyoon
A dear coder Kilian (http://www.forexfactory.com/kilian19) has created a back testing indie for me and of course anyone is free to use it.
..
Hey Tyoon,
thank you man.

I am surely gonna try it, when i find time.

MIKY
--Be in the NOW or get lost in time.--
  • #1,191
  • Jan 24, 2012 6:32am Jan 24, 2012 6:32am
Hows everyone's trading doing? Beating the crap out of the markets I hope.

I have been drawing some S/D formations to affirm what I have learned so far. I have only done a few, I will update it when I remember the rest ..whipsaws, compressions, etc.

If anybody can introduce more formations or scenarios I will draw them down like I have here and I can create a cute PIE PA poster of patterns, setups, formations etc.

Note: obviously all examples in the drawing can be applied visa-vera. Eg, sudden drop supply can also be sudden rally demand.

..
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  • #1,192
  • Jan 24, 2012 6:35am Jan 24, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Tyoon
Hows everyone's trading doing? Beating the crap out of the markets I hope.

I have been drawing some S/D formations to affirm what I have learned so far. I have only done a few, I will update it when I remember the rest ..whipsaws, compressions, etc.

If anybody can introduce more formations or scenarios I will draw them down like I have here and I can create a cute PIE PA poster of patterns, setups, formations etc.

..
wow ty reall nice man - ill try post some of mine as well more on my "what takes me to go buy and sell on PA based persepctive"
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,193
  • Jan 24, 2012 6:52am Jan 24, 2012 6:52am
Quoting Tyoon
Hows everyone's trading doing? Beating the crap out of the markets I hope.

I have been drawing some S/D formations to affirm what I have learned so far. I have only done a few, I will update it when I remember the rest ..whipsaws, compressions, etc.

If anybody can introduce more formations or scenarios I will draw them down like I have here and I can create a cute PIE PA poster of patterns, setups, formations etc.

Note: obviously all examples in the drawing can be applied visa-vera. Eg, sudden drop supply can also be sudden rally demand.

.....
Very very nice work

Compression into zone is the next one, I suppose
  • #1,194
  • Jan 24, 2012 7:00am Jan 24, 2012 7:00am
OK sorry, what's an engulfing ? I asked in the EU thread but no one seems to have the answer.

Quoting Tyoon
Hows everyone's trading doing? Beating the crap out of the markets I hope.

I have been drawing some S/D formations to affirm what I have learned so far. I have only done a few, I will update it when I remember the rest ..whipsaws, compressions, etc.

If anybody can introduce more formations or scenarios I will draw them down like I have here and I can create a cute PIE PA poster of patterns, setups, formations etc.

Note: obviously all examples in the drawing can be applied visa-vera. Eg, sudden drop supply can also be sudden rally demand.

.....
Hello.
  • #1,195
  • Jan 24, 2012 7:09am Jan 24, 2012 7:09am
Quoting emene
OK sorry, what's an engulfing ? I asked in the EU thread but no one seems to have the answer.

  • #1,196
  • Jan 24, 2012 7:29am Jan 24, 2012 7:29am
Quoting emene
OK sorry, what's an engulfing ? I asked in the EU thread but no one seems to have the answer.
I think engulfing is what the market does to their accounts.

BTW, I found some videos you posted Vimeo page (http://vimeo.com/26338496). Thanks for sharing.
  • #1,197
  • Jan 24, 2012 7:34am Jan 24, 2012 7:34am
Quoting Tyoon
I think engulfing is what the market does to their accounts.
Nice one.

Quoting Tyoon
BTW, I found some videos you posted Vimeo page (http://vimeo.com/26338496). Thanks for sharing.
This video changed a lot for me. When you understand it is the same on m1, nothing can stop you.
Hello.
  • #1,198
  • Jan 24, 2012 7:54am Jan 24, 2012 7:54am
its the best i can do sorry for some overlaps and bad bad drawing...
its page 1 of what i do - i have a long list for more PA stuff. from ifmyante,, from other peeps... from me... its a long list but ill try post most of them
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #1,199
  • Jan 24, 2012 8:03am Jan 24, 2012 8:03am
This is going to be an absolutely excellent resource
  • #1,200
  • Jan 24, 2012 8:06am Jan 24, 2012 8:06am
Quoting bumapatria
its the best i can do sorry for some overlaps and bad bad drawing...
its page 1 of what i do - i have a long list for more PA stuff. from ifmyante,, from other peeps... from me... its a long list but ill try post most of them
Thanks Buma I have quite a few more to draw up now.

A couple more I did earlier.

EDIT: drawing of compression is not the best but will update it later.

..
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