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vsa with Malcolm

  • #22,521
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:09am Jan 19, 2012 11:09am
Quoting slaphappy
How do you stay in this trade?

The squat shows a lot of strenth, but it fails on almost just as much volume.

The hourly shows accumulation at the bottom, and heavy absorption at resistance the past 2 days. So background is major strength, but that doesnt mean that the market can't retrace. So I got out.

I always watch my trades like a hawk. Many times I will stop my self out and it will eventually go my way. Other times it was the right decision. Whats your guys view on just letting the market take you out vs. taking yourself out? Is it just...
First thing to consider is that we don't move in straight lines... Up, down to make a HL, up again etc... making of an uptrend / upward leg... truly we are still well in a downtrend on all higher TF's (4hr and Daily) and the whole week good just be a retrace in the grand scheme and not really and uptrend at all.

This is why I hate the term trend as it is all relative to what TF you are looking at... myself I trade intraday mainly 5 and 15 min charts and if the day decides to be an upday... great I will long despite the fact that the 4 hr chart shows a downtrend...

All that being said and having nothing to do with what you asked I will continue...

I trust my trades 100%, 98% of the time (yes there are times when I say holy f^&k what was I thinking and close out a trade before TP or SL is hit. I always trade 2 lots with the first one going for 1:1 and lot 2 trailing SL with the market. I either get stopped out by the market at my original SL or my moved SL unless I get an UHV countersignal that makes me think shorts may be in order I will either really tighten my SL or just close out.

The other thing I will offer my 2 cents on is your entry. Personally I would never short a NS after "stopping volume" as it has not been proven yet. The lower wick on that bar could've just as easily been tested and taken out the same as we see with UT's in an up"trend". The increased volume needs to be tested again to be proven and we need to see some buying first to show that it was stopping and not absorption. The NS also closed lower than the previous bar and had way too much upper wick and too low of a close.

The test bar was also a bit ugly as it a lot of upper wick also and not high enough of a close. Also what is the bar testing? The close? Nope. The high? Nope we are still below the high... we are also well above the low and also the 50% level. The test to me was of no real value as it wasn't in a rising market and no real strength was yet confirmed.

The way things played out was pretty well to be expected... we saw the initial push up culminating in that WRB... so now we have seen buyers at work, we are above the high of the stopping volume so now we can say the stopping has been confirmed but not tested. We also see the initial resistance right at the low of the bar you marked which again makes sense... stopping volume alone wasn't enough steam to take out that bar... yes that next bar was squatty based on spread but again the close was on the low with upper wick so this volume while represntative of buyers squishing sellers there's still too much supply...

Then we get a couple of UHV Ut's / effort to rise into that "news" bar low, both with lots of upper wick showing the demand / supply battle that is ongoing. The good thing is when you closed your long you didn't jump in short off the UT's... to much indecision at the moment.

Another lower volume UT which is where you got out. The next bar is an increased volume downbar closing off it's lows... the nice thing here is we couldn't make a lower low than the test bar on signifigant increase in volume / effort... next bar is up. As you will see the next 3 bars are up and on decreasing volume and we now easily take out the low of that bar...

The best thing about all of this is where that stopping volume printed... 15min chart theres a WR downbar on UHV that printed after LO who's 50% level was where we found support (oh and the low of that WR upbar 2 bars later also on UHV, confluence)...

I have looked at this area again and again and discussed it with some other trader and I just can't find a decent entry to get you in that portion of the upmove...

Wow sorry for being so long winded and getting off the topic of your question...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,522
  • Jan 19, 2012 12:15pm Jan 19, 2012 12:15pm
  •  jaboo
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Ray Comfort is....the banana man | 236 Posts
which broker has the most reliable Volume info for day traders?
  • #22,523
  • Jan 19, 2012 12:24pm Jan 19, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting pres78
..The test bar was also a bit ugly as it a lot of upper wick also and not high enough of a close. Also what is the bar testing? The close? Nope. The high? Nope we are still below the high... we are also well above the low and also the 50% level. The test to me was of no real value as it wasn't in a rising market and no real strength was yet confirmed....
Interesting my friend. To me it is very obvious what is being tested-two consecutive up intervals on decreasing volume. These are unconfirmed No Demands that could in the right place-depending on how much weight you put on the Stopping Volume as background strength. I would prefer the close to be higher but it is above the Midpoint. And it is still within the range of the Stopping Volume interval. Actually those two intervals are less like No Demands and more like two signs of a lack of BB participation, which begs the question "why?" . In order to find out, they test......
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,524
  • Jan 19, 2012 12:29pm Jan 19, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Interesting my friend. To me it is very obvious what is being tested-two consecutive up intervals on decreasing volume. These are unconfirmed No Demands that could in the right place-depending on how much weight you put on the Stopping Volume as background strength. I would prefer the close to be higher but it is above the Midpoint. And it is still within the range of the Stopping Volume interval. Actually those two intervals are less like No Demands and more like two signs of a lack of BB participation, which begs the question "why?" . In order...
Perhaps and I always respect your replies and opinions... for me and how I trade VSA that test was of no value to me and was too ugly of a print.

Plus for me those two bars weren't enough to confirm stopping vol...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,525
  • Edited 4:27pm Jan 19, 2012 4:11pm | Edited 4:27pm
Thank you for the very detailed reply Pres, and you as well HG on how you see the test.

Say as much as you like Pres. While reading the thread I noticed how quickly you progressed. From the questions you asked at the beginning of last year you can tell you were just beginning, and now you seem to be an expert in only one year. It is very inspiring, and its nice to hear your thoughts even if it doesnt exactly apply to the questions. I'm gonna go back through your posts and see how better to apply what you do.

How well does your method of trigger bars clear up extremely choppy days like yesterday and today? I do good and make money on days with a larger range and trending days usually, but I need to make better sense of the choppy days.

Anyway, the chart explains the reasons for entry a little better. At support, an old top that has been respected once already, we have 2 down bars on 2 of the highest volume bars of the day, from the open of the first bar to the close of the second bar is 9 pips. Then a NS and next bar is up. The test was in the exact place of the 2 UHV down bars only 4 and 5 bars back. I remember Undeclared Secrets saying something about NDs do occur sometime right after a strong sign of strength. I do recognize it was very aggresive, and I was expecting an automatic rally on low volume then come back down to retest. I had my mouse over the close button waiting on it to come back down. I was going to get out at break even, and then re-enter after a proper test. I had been waiting for this all morning and didnt want to miss it.(herd mentality in full force)

I love the point you make about that last down bar not breaking the low of the test bar even on high volume. Basically what happened (in hindsight of course) is they tried to mark it up and hit major supply at the bottom of the news bar, then just absorbed it all which is why it could go up on lower volume.

You've also got me thinking about relaxing a bit on my trades. Maybe the reason Im so hawkish during my trade is I just don't trust myself enough. Im no master, but I know this stuff pretty good and I know how to apply it. So if all the pieces of the puzzle to a good trade are there, I need to just sit back and let it develop and trust the setup.
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  • #22,526
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:44pm Jan 19, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting slaphappy
Thank you for the very detailed reply Pres, and you as well HG on how you see the test.

Say as much as you like Pres. While reading the thread I noticed how quickly you progressed. From the questions you asked at the beginning of last year you can tell you were just beginning, and now you seem to be an expert in only one year. It is very inspiring, and its nice to hear your thoughts even if it doesnt exactly apply to the questions. I'm gonna go back through your posts and see how better to apply what you do.

How well does your method of...
I'll stick my oar into this conversation as well

First thing i'd say is that your volume feed looks a bit poor, a lot of bars with very similar size volume and I personally find that a very hard read. Not sure what others think? I'd post a chart to compare but my trading comp is off. If you look at Pres' chart you'll see a lot more variation in size between UHV and low volume tests etc - even if it is a 15min.

This leads to my next point, the stopping volume you've marked is your highest of the day? On my chart it's not exactly huge volume, in fact it's quite ordinary. Slight increase but nothing to shout about.

I actually like the test bar myself, funnily enough, at the right edge i considered a long off it. But I quickly decided against it for the reasons Pres points out, it's not testing anything in particular - with regards to fib areas anyway.

I'll post a chart tomorrow for comparison.
  • #22,527
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:08pm Jan 19, 2012 7:08pm
Well I have been looking at the Sierra Charts you have been posting Kinsale, and they have been making me consider getting a subscription. Its only $19 a month, but I have always liked IBFX's volume.

So I started a trial with Sierra Charts a few minutes ago. I've gotten used to the volume having a smaller variance on IBFX, but I can definately see a big difference. Especially in the rectangle, you can see the infamous NDs on IBFX are actually increasing volume on Sierra, which is bullish. And the down bars with the UHV on IBFX, although high volume on Sierra, aren't nearly as imposing.

Sierra Charts uses data from FXCM. Does that mean you could just use FXCM's MT4 and get the same feed? Or is it Sierra's platform that makes a difference?

I remember a post Beljevina made about Collective FX. So I'm throwing in a chart of their demo as well. It is very similar to Sierra Charts.

IBFX has the blue, Collective has the green. Sorry about the size of the Sierra chart, I don't know how to resize so you may have to click it.


http://www.sierrachart.com/userimage...7028558465.png
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  • #22,528
  • Jan 20, 2012 12:28am Jan 20, 2012 12:28am
Quoting slaphappy
Well I have been looking at the Sierra Charts you have been posting Kinsale, and they have been making me consider getting a subscription. Its only $19 a month, but I have always liked IBFX's volume.

So I started a trial with Sierra Charts a few minutes ago. I've gotten used to the volume having a smaller variance on IBFX, but I can definately see a big difference. Especially in the rectangle, you can see the infamous NDs on IBFX are actually increasing volume on Sierra, which is bullish. And the down bars with the UHV on IBFX, although high...
Not sure how long you've been looking at the thread but I used to have Tradeguider and i paid for the eSignal feed, i compared Sierra with this for over a month and it turns out eSignal isn't all it's cracked up to be!

From those screens alone I don't like the IBFX feed but The Collective one looks very good, perhaps even switch to them?

As far as I know the Sierra feed is FXCM institutional, i've compared with the FXCM demo and there are definitely some differences.

Hope this helps.

Edit - Sierra is very customisable, gimme a shout if you have any questions about it.
  • #22,529
  • Edited 4:00am Jan 20, 2012 12:43am | Edited 4:00am
Quoting slaphappy
How do you stay in this trade?

The squat shows a lot of strenth, but it fails on almost just as much volume.
your NS is not a no supply. Although it is a down bar on lower volume, it has a selling tail that indicates weakness. The bar you label "squat" I would consider to be a weak bar, it is more of a hidden upthrust, and the next bar is an ut so at that point you should definatly not be long.

Also I have to agree with liam, that volume does look very poor. I use fxcm demo volume for my charts. I have compared it before to 6e futures volume, and found to be very similar for the most part.
  • #22,530
  • Jan 20, 2012 2:48am Jan 20, 2012 2:48am
EU-M5 today.

1. No supply.
2. Shakeout.
3. No supply.
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  • #22,531
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:40am Jan 20, 2012 4:40am
Excellent info Kinsale. I'm loving the feed and the platform and for the money its def worth it.

Thanks for your input Apple Sauce. I do see your points on both bars, and considered those options at the time. When I see bars that can go either way I try to remember the rules and principles, and then let the next bar answer the question. My ns bar fits the technical definition with strength in the background, and the next bar is up. If it had made a higher high I would have accepted it as weakness.

The squat bar is a hidden upthrust, and I almost closed out on it. But the volume just kept growing and it didnt go any lower, and the next bar is up. So imo, it shows strength based on effort vs. result. The bar before it was much wider spread than it on lower volume. With all that volume it should have turned into a 2br.

These are just my opinions, and I can def appreciate yours. Either way in hindsight, and popular opinion it seems, it was not a time to get in the market long or short. Thanks for all the feedback guys.
  • #22,532
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:36am Jan 20, 2012 6:36am
Quoting KinsaleForex
...First thing i'd say is that your volume feed looks a bit poor, a lot of bars with very similar size volume and I personally find that a very hard read. Not sure what others think? I'd post a chart to compare but my trading comp is off. If you look at Pres' chart you'll see a lot more variation in size between UHV and low volume tests etc - even if it is a 15min...
As usual one has to be on his toes in this thread with such great and helpful traders.

I was going to point out that the real key to the Test interval comes from a simple observation of the volume. Notice that whist the Test is the fourth consecutive interval with volume less than the previous interval, it is really the only interval where the volume "drops" off.

The No Supply as an entry is a bit aggressive for me at least in part because the volume, although less than the previous two, is still high. The following two No Demand-like intervals also have relatively high volume. Then we get an interval that shows a "drop off". This interval has roughly half the volume as the Stopping Volume interval and is the lowest volume in at least 15 intervals (I did not actually count them prior to starting this post-oops).

So while this volume may not be considered great by many, it is nevertheless readable. And as always, I will chime in with the best answer in reference to data feeds: Start trading futures and remove all doubt.

EDIT: Okay that's the second best answer. The first best is trade what you see.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,533
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:52am Jan 20, 2012 6:52am
Quoting slaphappy
...Say as much as you like Pres. While reading the thread I noticed how quickly you progressed. From the questions you asked at the beginning of last year you can tell you were just beginning, and now you seem to be an expert in only one year. It is very inspiring, and its nice to hear your thoughts even if it doesnt exactly apply to the questions. I'm gonna go back through your posts and see how better to apply what you do...
Yes I remember when Pres couldn't even spell VSA. Now I wait with bated breath for all his posts and insights.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,534
  • Jan 20, 2012 7:08am Jan 20, 2012 7:08am
Quoting HiddenGap
Yes I remember when Pres couldn't even spell VSA. Now I wait with bated breath for all his posts and insights.
I still can't spell it correctly... keep wanting to put a $ where the S is supposed to go... must be some sort of subliminal messaging from my deepest recesses... V$A... see I did it again!

It's true, while not new to trading I was new to VSA... Fortunately for me it came fairly quickly through the help of many great VSA traders that used to call this thread home. I came in at a great time when this thread was very active and there was lots of great information shared.

I now trade my own bastardized version of VSA (sorry Tom and Mr. Wyckoff) that works great for me and have been fortunate enough to be able to help a few others along the way... Give back what you have been given.

VSA is not simple in the begining... lots of terms, lots of rules and lots of "variations"... but the effort is worth the result

Edit - oh and I personally have never paid for data feeds and have only traded with an FX broker. TADA and Ava both have their weaknesses as does any FX broker (other than maybe ECN type) but you learn to read their volumes and trade accordingly. That being said I am getting tired of the "gaps" in my price feeds and the slow execution I am seeing when the market moves quickly so I am shopping around for a futures broker, would like to find one that I can trade both futures and spot with even if on different accounts / platforms.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,535
  • Jan 20, 2012 7:14am Jan 20, 2012 7:14am
Quoting pres78
I now trade my own bastardized version of VSA (sorry Tom and Mr. Wyckoff) that works great for me and have been fortunate enough to be able to help a few others along the way... Give back what you have been given.

VSA is not simple in the begining... lots of terms, lots of rules and lots of "variations"... but the effort is worth the result
  • #22,536
  • Jan 20, 2012 8:22am Jan 20, 2012 8:22am
Hi folks..
I'm new to this forums, not to forex, no to VSA...

Thing I noticed looking at your charts, that there is difference between my and yours volume data...

So I'm asking, - could you please share PM or here
or my mail [email protected]

Could you give me your H4 and H1 charts for EUR/USD so I could check for some more...

Thanks... I'm worried.. ;(

My broker - AdmiralMarkets.
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  • #22,537
  • Jan 22, 2012 8:38am Jan 22, 2012 8:38am
祝大家新春快乐万事如意！
  • #22,538
  • Jan 22, 2012 9:11am Jan 22, 2012 9:11am
Quoting 41413592
祝大家新春快乐万事如意！
Happy New Year and good luck to you also...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,539
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:38pm Jan 22, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting pres78
I still can't spell it correctly... keep wanting to put a $ where the S is supposed to go... must be some sort of subliminal messaging from my deepest recesses... V$A... see I did it again!

It's true, while not new to trading I was new to VSA... Fortunately for me it came fairly quickly through the help of many great VSA traders that used to call this thread home. I came in at a great time when this thread was very active and there was lots of great information shared.

I now trade my own bastardized version of VSA (sorry Tom and Mr. Wyckoff)...
Hi Pres.
About your shopping for brokers, I think you can have a look at PFGBest, as you can open 2 accounts, one for spot and another for futures. Than you can access both accounts from the same platform.
One merit is that you can use the good NinjaTrader with them.
I just opened an account with them but not trading there yet so, cannot comment much more about.
If you want an ECN forex only broker, I suggest you look at FXCC(fxcc.com). They have 2 commission schemes: 1 is based on the spread and the other is a fixed commission of 1 pip(per round trade). If you choose the commission scheme, the spread is almost 0(0, to 0.2 max) all the time and for all pairs. So, the final commission will be something between 1 and 1.2 pips. And the execution is very fast(if you choose the MT4 platform, it still has some delay but if you choose the Currenex platform, the execution is immediate). Their support is very good as well. The only thing to concern with(if you want so) is that they are in Cyprus... :-)

Cheers!
  • #22,540
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:16am Jan 23, 2012 3:16am
EU-M5 today.

1. No supply.
2. No supply.
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