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Greece 2012

  • Poll

  • When will Greece default?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 19, 2012 11:59am Jan 18, 2012 1:32am | Edited Jan 19, 2012 11:59am
The general consensus in the market is that Greece will default this year (2012). The only question now is whether or not it will be an orderly default, or if the shit will hit the fan and send the markets into a tailspin increasing the risk of contagion to Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain.

So, I started this thread to take a poll on when you feel Greece will actually default. You must vote by 28th February 2012

I look forward to see the results of this poll and receive any additional comments you may have on the subject.

All comments and debates regarding the past, current and possible future of Greece are welcome, but please be nice to each other.

Please keep in mind that a haircut, even an agreed one. is a default.
By selecting "Never" you are saying that all bond holders will be paid the face value of the bonds upon maturity.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2
  • Jan 18, 2012 1:51am Jan 18, 2012 1:51am
Nice and interesting Thread PT....

Greece trying to sell invisible fighter jets hehehe.... Trojan horse scenario again!!!
Cheers!!
  • #3
  • Jan 18, 2012 2:01am Jan 18, 2012 2:01am
Nice room PT.
Been enjoying ur EurAnalysis room and i think it's the only room i browse daily.
Hope u don mind me for not contributing anything to ur room.
Keep up the good work. Cheers!
  • #4
  • Jan 18, 2012 2:04am Jan 18, 2012 2:04am
Gee, thought it already had defaulted.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5
  • Jan 18, 2012 2:30am Jan 18, 2012 2:30am
However the default will be handled it'll grease up the market a bit.
  • #6
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:11am Jan 18, 2012 3:11am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Nice and interesting Thread PT....

Greece trying to sell invisible fighter jets hehehe.... Trojan horse scenario again!!!
Invisible fighter jets? Wow, just think... One can buy an invisible fighter jet, fly over a hostile country totally undetected, drop a few invisible bombs and nobody will even notice it happened.

Those fighter jets must be priceless.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:15am Jan 18, 2012 3:15am
Quoting Ch1l1MaN
Nice room PT.
Been enjoying ur EurAnalysis room and i think it's the only room i browse daily.
Hope u don mind me for not contributing anything to ur room.
Keep up the good work. Cheers!
Thanks for the vote of confidence Chili

Of course I don't mind. If you are there to learn, then I hope you've learned lots. Mind you, it would be nice to show us what you've learned so far. That is an even better way to improve your skills. Post what you are thinking and see what feedback you get.
Cheers, PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:18am Jan 18, 2012 3:18am
Quoting AaronWard
Gee, thought it already had defaulted.
All depends on your definition of "default"

They were not able to pay their bills without a bailout so in essence, they have defaulted. However, technically, their bills ultimately got paid through an exercise of can kicking so an actual default in market terms has not taken place yet.

A man is falling off a cliff and fast approaching jagged rocks 500 feet below. During his fall, in essence he is a dead man. However, technically, he is still alive.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:19am Jan 18, 2012 3:19am
Quoting Tyoon
However the default will be handled it'll grease up the market a bit.
That's what I am hoping
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10
  • Jan 18, 2012 4:07am Jan 18, 2012 4:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
A man is falling off a cliff and fast approaching jagged rocks 500 feet below. During his fall, in essence he is a dead man. However, technically, he is still alive.
This might be the easiest way to explain the conditions in greece right now. Very nice.

However, more interesting migh be the time after the default, you know, never let a good crisis go to waste
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #11
  • Jan 18, 2012 4:26am Jan 18, 2012 4:26am
Quoting Hova
This might be the easiest way to explain the conditions in greece right now. Very nice.

However, more interesting migh be the time after the default, you know, never let a good crisis go to waste
Ha Ha. I've got my big hammer ready and aimed straight at the sell button.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12
  • Jan 18, 2012 4:52am Jan 18, 2012 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
All depends on your definition of "default"

They were not able to pay their bills without a bailout so in essence, they have defaulted. However, technically, their bills ultimately got paid through an exercise of can kicking so an actual default in market terms has not taken place yet.

A man is falling off a cliff and fast approaching jagged rocks 500 feet below. During his fall, in essence he is a dead man. However, technically, he is still alive.
What about the PSI? Would you count that as a default if they reach an agreement?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13
  • Jan 18, 2012 5:01am Jan 18, 2012 5:01am
Quoting AaronWard
What about the PSI? Would you count that as a default if they reach an agreement?
Anything that involves a haircut is a default. However, that would be called an orderly default and will have less of an impact on the markets. Regardless, anything short of a 75% haircut is just another kick at the can.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #14
  • Jan 18, 2012 6:04am Jan 18, 2012 6:04am
They already have with the haircut so I have to vote Q1 because you don't have anything earlier

I guess they should make it official sometime this week with an "Agreement" if the hedge funds don't walk out on talks again.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #15
  • Jan 18, 2012 6:06am Jan 18, 2012 6:06am
I don't think so that greece will default, under no circumstance germany, france n other EU member will help this country, euro still a strong currency at 2012 ....just my opinion ...cheers braw ...
  • #16
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:58am Jan 19, 2012 9:58am
Damn I thought Greece has already defaulted. Could you add this option for me?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:04am Jan 19, 2012 10:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Damn I thought Greece has already defaulted. Could you add this option for me?

T
Too late. Just use Q1 2012
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #18
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:57am Jan 19, 2012 11:57am
I see that a few poll participants have selected "never"

Please keep in mind that a haircut, even an agreed one. is a default.
By selecting "Never" you are saying that all bond holders will be paid the face value of the bonds upon maturity.

If you want to change your vote, you cannot do it in the poll but you can certainly post it in this thread.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #19
  • Jan 19, 2012 12:16pm Jan 19, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Damn I thought Greece has already defaulted. Could you add this option for me?

T
you and me both.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:19pm Jan 19, 2012 8:19pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I see that a few poll participants have selected "never"

Please keep in mind that a haircut, even an agreed one. is a default.
By selecting "Never" you are saying that all bond holders will be paid the face value of the bonds upon maturity.

If you want to change your vote, you cannot do it in the poll but you can certainly post it in this thread.

Cheers
PT
Okay PT, please explain to me what the definition of "default" exactly so I can consider to change my vote from 'never' to other else ..because this is an ambigue about default term... sorry i'm nubie about this...cheers ...
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