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vsa with Malcolm

  • #22,501
  • Jan 15, 2012 8:27pm Jan 15, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting BeLikeWater
Very good job Joao!

I think we all agree this could be a great oportunity to Buy Euros, I will not think about closing my Longs until 1.30xx but for that we have to visit that first.
Thank you! I feel empowered and receive your comments with humility.

Cheers!
  • #22,502
  • Jan 15, 2012 11:32pm Jan 15, 2012 11:32pm
Better X-Trend free indictor from emini-watch:

http://emini-watch.com/the-better-x-...i-Watch.com%29

Indicator is codded for Trade station...Hopefully someone will code it for MT4 and/or MT5...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #22,503
  • Jan 16, 2012 2:24am Jan 16, 2012 2:24am
Quoting krazy_pips27
Ultra high volume came in on the Euro Friday which maybe strength, but we are still in a down trend and on the daily we had a 2 bar reversal. Looking for a small rally up to get short.
and if we could see this on a 2 day chart,this 2 bar reversal would be a good looking upthrust in a downtrend!so no demand to the upside would be nice entry if happens
Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,504
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:38pm Jan 16, 2012 9:38pm
Look at the euro rally.
I did not take it but am happy 'cause we could see that will come, in advance.

Congrats for VSA!

Cheers!
  • #22,505
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:09am Jan 17, 2012 2:09am
It is just a comment about news and real market.
I just read this article about Kodak(EK), with a very negative view.
But, if you look at EK's chart, it is a different picture.

Here is the news: http://tinyurl.com/7e5p6sf
And below is the chart(daily chart for 1 year span).

Again, it is only curiosity and for entertainment. :-)

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,506
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:45am Jan 17, 2012 5:45am
theres an upthrust in eu 1h chart at 10.00gmt short??? i did let me see how it works out
thankyou gregwilson
  • #22,507
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:34am Jan 17, 2012 6:34am
Quoting njokie
theres an upthrust in eu 1h chart at 10.00gmt short??? i did let me see how it works out
UT's are terrible when at the top of a rally... far to often we see exactly what happened today. The UT prints and even in this case the next bar prints as a downbar "confirming" the UT. Then we get this current bar... start down a bit (just enough to take you in short if you had a pending at the low of that "confirmation" bar and then we get one of two things... a continued rally or a mark-up / trap up to shake out the weak shorts that they just picked up.

UT's in a confirmed downmove are great, UT's after a BC and some ND's are OK too... UT's by themselves after a rally up... suck!

In this case we would want to see ND's below or into the low of the UT to confirm the weakness... There is possible weakness up at this daily high however for now it remains unconfirmed.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,508
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:34am Jan 17, 2012 8:34am
sl was hit then the pairs goes down down down yes shd have waited for a nd after the ut thenx pres78 well am still new in applying vsa into actual trading
pres78 could u help me with exits i tried using vsa reversal sign in volume but i walk away with little pips and it goes down for some more pips and using 1:2 risk reward sometimes it doesnt reach the reward av set nway help will be appreacited for instance in this set up that showed up.
thenx vsa is for real
thankyou gregwilson
  • #22,509
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:47am Jan 17, 2012 8:47am
Now here is how I traded that 1hr UT as noted in a previous post. I added the fib you see which was the UT zone and was and still is my highest 1hr volume for the day. This is now the controlling volume zone.

I dropped to my trading chart which is mainly a 5min and waited....

What did we see?

We saw some support along the bottom and then a rejection at 50%... then we get an initial "testing" break of the zone. There was still demand present and the market was not yet ready to go down (plus SM wanted to trap and SL hunt any weak shorters who jumped in off that UT.

So we then get that WRB up on increased volume but lower volume than the controlling zone bar (you can see that the highest volume 5min bar is inside that 1hr bar)...

The very next bar still on UHV volume pushes out of the zone making a higher high but closes back inside (on lower volume)... this was a nice 2BR at an important level and we see some confirmation of weakness.

The next bars play out as a bit of a battle between supply and demand as we push sideway only to print that next UT type bar on increased volume, another selling tail and a low close... a second rejection at the high... very good.

In the end I shorted that nice little ND into the 50% of that 1hr zone. I figured worst case is that we would see a failed break at the low or at the previous swing low (yellow rectangle) from the last break out. Eith way with a tight SL I could get 1:1 on my first lot with only 15 pips so I felt it was a safe entry.

I have marked on a couple of blue rectangle at previous S&D areas that I need to watch closely as I trail now my stop. That low one especially (where we are now) as it was reisistance / turned support on the initial upmove today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1.17.2012 5min.gif Size: 21 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,510
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:15am Jan 17, 2012 9:15am
Quoting pres78
UT's are terrible when at the top of a rally... far to often we see exactly what happened today. The UT prints and even in this case the next bar prints as a downbar "confirming" the UT. Then we get this current bar... start down a bit (just enough to take you in short if you had a pending at the low of that "confirmation" bar and then we get one of two things... a continued rally or a mark-up / trap up to shake out the weak shorts that they just picked up.

UT's in a confirmed downmove are great, UT's after a BC and some ND's are OK too......

pres78
one more little question do u mean a nd below the UT in 1h or do u go down to say 5min and spot the nd then short?i appreaciate your input
thankyou gregwilson
  • #22,511
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:25am Jan 17, 2012 9:25am
perfect explanation pres78 could u explain more on how u trail to avoid being stopped out too soon
thankyou gregwilson
  • #22,512
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:57am Jan 17, 2012 9:57am
EU-M5 today

1. High(est) volume upbar, close middle, sellers coming in, must be SM, because 2 hours after London and direction is north.
2. Same.
3. No demand.
4. Upthrust.
5. Hidden upthrust.
6. No demand.
7. Hidden upthrust.
8. No demand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,513
  • Jan 18, 2012 3:39pm Jan 18, 2012 3:39pm
Most of the intraday (FX) traders that I know do not like the 1 minute timeframe, so I never looked there before to analyse. I was looking at the 10 min TF but wanted more detail in the data. My only other option was to look at the 1 min.
There was weakness in the background, but it was the first sign of weakness. The market tends to go up again, after an automatic rally, to get rid of the demand.
I was only looking for about 10 -15 pips scalp, so I figured the 1 min. is suited to that.
The market retraced off a wide bar on diminishing volume, did a minor rally and then retraced again on diminishing volume. That 2nd retrace had no selling pressure after a hint of bullishness.
At 1. NS was evident on a narrow bar.
At 2. a minor SO (shake out) appeared
This is usually a powerful combination to go long, hence the entry.
On further reflection this can be liberally interpreted as a "last point of demand" in Wyckoff terms.
A nice 40 pip run resulted...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,514
  • Jan 18, 2012 5:21pm Jan 18, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting FrankSA
Most of the intraday (FX) traders that I know do not like the 1 minute timeframe, so I never looked there before to analyse. I was looking at the 10 min TF but wanted more detail in the data. My only other option was to look at the 1 min.
There was weakness in the background, but it was the first sign of weakness. The market tends to go up again, after an automatic rally, to get rid of the demand.
I was only looking for about 10 -15 pips scalp, so I figured the 1 min. is suited to that.
The market retraced off a wide bar on diminishing...
Never really look at 1min either, hope you don't mind, stuck a few extra things on your chart which I spotted from looking at yours.

An alternative view if you will.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,515
  • Jan 18, 2012 5:54pm Jan 18, 2012 5:54pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
on daily chart we got today a day which breached the long term channel and as we see the long term down trend get weaker, the distance between balance area becoming smaller and we tested the up side of balance we are since 01/06. we closed the day on the high on good volume, we got hidden potential selling on 2h and 30 min chart but being at so strong resistance it could be very well absorption and the potential for at least a retracement.
what do you think?
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  • #22,516
  • Jan 19, 2012 1:37am Jan 19, 2012 1:37am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Never really look at 1min either, hope you don't mind, stuck a few extra things on your chart which I spotted from looking at yours.

An alternative view if you will.
Nice additions, I like the way the entry points fit into your HV band. and thanks for the 2nd test..it is a very safe entry point.
Finally, if you look again at that area, it was building a "cause" for the next move up..(ie. accumulation).
  • #22,517
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:35am Jan 19, 2012 4:35am
Quoting joaoborras
It is just a comment about news and real market.
I just read this article about Kodak(EK), with a very negative view.
But, if you look at EK's chart, it is a different picture.

Here is the news: http://tinyurl.com/7e5p6sf
And below is the chart(daily chart for 1 year span).

Again, it is only curiosity and for entertainment. :-)

Cheers!
looks like they just filed for bankruptcy protection today
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
  • #22,518
  • Jan 19, 2012 6:34am Jan 19, 2012 6:34am
Quoting upthrust
looks like they just filed for bankruptcy protection today
Yeap, I saw that.
Seems it was not manipulation... :-)
  • #22,519
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:58am Jan 19, 2012 8:58am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Never really look at 1min either, hope you don't mind, stuck a few extra things on your chart which I spotted from looking at yours...An alternative view if you will.
Here's my take.

For me there is a really nice KRB that either brings you in or confirms the background strength for a future long at 1 or at 2. I really like these types of KRBs. You can't see them on a HLC chart-you need to see the open. The open is lower than the previous close, then the interval makes a lower low than the previous interval (better if its lower than the previous two intervals), then closes higher than the previous close and its own open and near its high. From a pure VSA point , many would call it Stopping Volume or a Shake Out.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,520
  • Edited 11:50am Jan 19, 2012 11:48am | Edited 11:50am
How do you stay in this trade?

The squat shows a lot of strenth, but it fails on almost just as much volume.

The hourly shows accumulation at the bottom, and heavy absorption at resistance the past 2 days. So background is major strength, but that doesnt mean that the market can't retrace. So I got out.

I always watch my trades like a hawk. Many times I will stop my self out and it will eventually go my way. Other times it was the right decision. Whats your guys view on just letting the market take you out vs. taking yourself out? Is it just a middle of the road thing, and I have to find my own way?

This seemed like a strong rejection, so I just got out with what I had.
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