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Fundamental vs Technical

  • #81
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:13am Jan 12, 2012 10:13am
Quoting bumapatria
Price. TIme. VOlume.

Price = vertical movement. u can gauge sentiment, s/r, trendlines, channels, pivots, fibs, - and from price people made indicators - oscillators, moving averages, volatility bands, etc... - market geometry as well is great tool.

Time = Horizontal movement. yes you can time the market - its proven and i do it everyday. whether its planetary or static, or bar counting from certain geometric movement of time - u can use time to help you.

Volume = supply and demand is the basis of all markets. volume a well hidden secret...


Have read some of your posts. We analyse the time aspect in a very different way, but it is just as important as price to me.

VSA not for me, but as you say many different ways to measure volume. Combine price and time in the right way and you have an extremely accurate volume indicator.

Keep up the good work buma

ps As you say, fundies and news analysis is just not necisary if you are proficient at time, volume and price analysis
  • #82
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:17am Jan 12, 2012 10:17am
Quoting Agro


Have read some of your posts. We analyse the time aspect in a very different way, but it is just as important as price to me.

VSA not for me, but as you say many different ways to measure volume. Combine price and time and you have an extremely accurate volume indicator.

Keep up the good work buma

ps As you say, fundies and news analysis is just not necisary if you are proficient at time, volume and price analysis
thanks agro - been reading ur posts too

as for fundies i have no probs to those who use it to analyse - i just cant find a trading sort of 'signal' to do this or that based on news. fundies would laugh at me because they know their stuff.

its just preference as u say mate

take care!
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #83
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:55pm Jan 12, 2012 7:55pm
LOL @ all the guy who say fundie does not work

Let me tell you an Ancient Chinese story:

The Frog in the Well

There was a frog that lived in a shallow well.

" Look how well off I am here ! " he told a big turtle from the Eastern Ocean. " I can hop along the coping of the well when I go out, and rest by a crevice in the bricks on my return. I can wallow to my heart's content with only my head above water, or stroll ankle deep through soft mud. No crabs or tadpoles can compare with me. I am master of the water and lord of this shallow well, What more can a fellow ask ? Why don't you come here more often to have a good time ? "

Before the turtle from the Eastern Ocean could get his left foot into the well, however, he caught his right calw on something. So he halted and stepped back then began to describe the ocean to the frog.

" It's more than a thousand miles across and more than ten thousand feet deep. In ancient times there were floods nine years out of ten yet the water in the ocean never increased.

And later there were droughts seven years out of eight yet the water in the ocean never grew less. It has remained quite constant throughtout the ages. That is why I like to live in the Eastern Ocean. "

Then the frog in the shallow well was silent and felt a little abashed.

You guys just like a frog which sit in the bottom of the well and see the world through that well and say like: "see this world is not bigger than my well, i'd rather stay here than go out"

you are lazy frogs which does not want to learn a new thing in this case is fundamental, only want to stick your ass with the easy one, just see some "price action" and determine up or down, easy thought, must not work, just spend your whole time stare at your chart, instead of reading news, doing research, you just see your signal show your trade, too easy right ... LOL . ....
  • #84
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:23pm Jan 12, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting Trader000
you are lazy frogs which does not want to learn a new thing in this case is fundamental, only want to stick your ass with the easy one, just see some "price action" and determine up or down, easy thought, must not work, just spend your whole time stare at your chart, instead of reading news, doing research, you just see your signal show your trade, too easy right ... LOL . ....
Yes you are spot on, price action is the easy way out. That is why so many people are successfull in this business and almost no one fails.
  • #85
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:25am Jan 13, 2012 2:25am
Quoting Trader000
LOL @ all the guy who say fundie does not work

Let me tell you an Ancient Chinese story:

The Frog in the Well[color=blue]

There was a frog that lived in a shallow well.

[i][b][color=blue]" Look how well off I am here ! " he told a big turtle from the Eastern Ocean. " I can hop along the coping of the well when I go out, and rest by a crevice in the bricks on my return. I can wallow to my heart's content with only my head above water, or stroll ankle...
whatever
  • #86
  • Jan 13, 2012 3:54pm Jan 13, 2012 3:54pm
I think that which ever you learn first will be easier for you to use and understand. For me I learned techincle anaylsis first, that is how I learned
to trade. Even though I have looked into fundemental analysis I just do get how to trade. But my house mate who trades FX learned fundemental analysis first does not see how I can trade technicle anaylsis. What we learn first seems to create a bais that I think is hard for most traders to let go of. I am pretty sure I should know how to use technicle and fundemental anaylsis but until I can really understand fundemental I will
just stick with what I know best, that is what most traders probably do.


Regards
  • #87
  • Jan 13, 2012 7:46pm Jan 13, 2012 7:46pm
technical analysis is the best
  • #88
  • Edited 3:01am Jan 14, 2012 2:59am | Edited 3:01am
Both fundamental and technical analysis are crucial to a successful trading stradegy even if you're only purpose is to avoid trading during the NFP report.

For the most part the major reason most people on these forums and others alike focus on technical analysis is because most of us are retail investors. We are looking for short term opportunities in the market.

My 2 cents:

Prices in the short term are affected by the market entries that have been precisely placed at technically advantageous prices for the purpose of good timing.

Prices in the long term are affected by the gross market value after all fundamental information has been considered.

Long term currency investors are usually people with a lot of money to move and fundamentals give long term insight far better than technicals
  • #89
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:35am Jan 14, 2012 11:35am
Quoting EliteJ
Both fundamental and technical analysis are crucial to a successful trading stradegy even if you're only purpose is to avoid trading during the NFP report.

For the most part the major reason most people on these forums and others alike focus on technical analysis is because most of us are retail investors. We are looking for short term opportunities in the market.

My 2 cents:

Prices in the short term are affected by the market entries that have been precisely placed at technically advantageous prices for the purpose of good timing.

Prices...
When you say long term fundis how long do you mean exacty? Tech traders can look at charts and accurately base their analysis on levels going back 20+ years
  • #90
  • Jan 14, 2012 1:51pm Jan 14, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting EliteJ
Both fundamental and technical analysis are crucial to a successful trading stradegy even if you're only purpose is to avoid trading during the NFP report.

For the most part the major reason most people on these forums and others alike focus on technical analysis is because most of us are retail investors. We are looking for short term opportunities in the market.

My 2 cents:

Prices in the short term are affected by the market entries that have been precisely placed at technically advantageous prices for the purpose of good timing.

Prices...
I should have added. Learn to trade techs profitably then go find a fundi trader who is profitable, compare the two. You will see for yourself techs kick fundis into oblivion, fundis are pathetic by comparison.

I paid for my own forex education (years of study and tons of cash), I didn't just listen to all the hype.
  • #91
  • Jan 14, 2012 2:35pm Jan 14, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting Agro

How do fundies traders expect to compete with all the resources and contacts that the main players have.
lol you don't need a degree in economics to include fundamentals in your trading, you simply find a reliable source of analysis from someone who has an army of researchers and analysts behind them and who has a decent track record, they're worth their weight in gold and then some!

Ignore fundamentals and you're missing half the picture.
  • #92
  • Jan 15, 2012 8:25am Jan 15, 2012 8:25am
Quoting pipmutt
lol you don't need a degree in economics to include fundamentals in your trading, you simply find a reliable source of analysis from someone who has an army of researchers and analysts behind them and who has a decent track record, they're worth their weight in gold and then some!

Ignore fundamentals and you're missing half the picture.
Man stop wasting time on this subject let them read the new market wizards but anyhow sometime it is funny.
Always same thing ussually the noobies come here price is all etc but it is just a waste of time to go further in this subject for me charts are important but more what moves are behind the price action.

But maybe i am just stupid but i always like to backup thing with some statements facts i like more yeah and it is not only with the last 1 manual trading but more things are in it. But just some not talk the talk but more walk the walk
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  • #93
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:35am Jan 16, 2012 5:35am
Quoting jag1966
I should have added. Learn to trade techs profitably then go find a fundi trader who is profitable, compare the two. You will see for yourself techs kick fundis into oblivion, fundis are pathetic by comparison.

I paid for my own forex education (years of study and tons of cash), I didn't just listen to all the hype.

I would argue exactly the opposite. The majority of retail traders are losing more than 9 out of every 10 trades (averaged across all trades of course) yet the fundamental investors in comparison win a far greater portion of the market even thou they make fewer trades. ALL market entities find their market value eventually and those market values reflect the underlying fundamentals. Institutional investors in the currency markets all make trading decisions based on the underlying fundamentals and I can assure you the retail investor is not kicking them into oblivion by any means.

Don't take any of this the wrong way. I myself trade solely on the technicals but I recognize what dominates the long term trends and that is purely the fundamentals. Realizing this sooner will bring a person closer to becoming a successful currency trader.

Happy pip hunting!
  • #94
  • Edited 7:24am Jan 16, 2012 5:40am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting EliteJ
I would argue exactly the opposite. The majority of retail traders are losing more than 9 out of every 10 trades (averaged across all trades of course) yet the fundamental investors in comparison win a far greater portion of the market even thou they make fewer trades. ALL market entities find their market value eventually and those market values reflect the underlying fundamentals. Institutional investors in the currency markets all make trading decisions based on the underlying fundamentals and I can assure you the retail investor is not kicking...
Point taken & I agree fundis dictate direction but they also are a tool for massive manipulation of price using dis-information. I am a retail trader and I am currently intra day so fundis are a total waste of my time.
  • #95
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:18pm Jan 16, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting EliteJ

Institutional investors in the currency markets all make trading decisions based on the underlying fundamentals and I can assure you the retail investor is not kicking them into oblivion by any means.
Exactly, and seeing as their analysis is very often openly shared it would seem remiss not to take it into consideration at least.
  • #96
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:08pm Jan 16, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting EliteJ
Don't take any of this the wrong way. I myself trade solely on the technicals but I recognize what dominates the long term trends and that is purely the fundamentals. Realizing this sooner will bring a person closer to becoming a successful currency trader.
How will realizing what dominates the long term trends "bring a person closer to becoming a successful currency trader"? On any given day there may be flows that go with or against the long term fundamentals, for any number of reasons, most of which will be explained away by analysts after the fact.

Until someone gives a satisfactory explanation of how knowing long term fundamentals will benefit my trading on a timeframe where said long term fundamentals are completely irrelevant, I'll still be here telling you that fundamentals are completely irrelevant-- however, I don't believe the flip side to be true. Even if you are a longer term investor/trader, price action will always be relevant, and will always be helpful, no matter the time frame. Heck, even buy-and-holders can use price action for a better price. You just simply can not say that for fundamentals.
  • #97
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:40am Jan 17, 2012 1:40am
Quoting smittens4212
How will realizing what dominates the long term trends "bring a person closer to becoming a successful currency trader"? On any given day there may be flows that go with or against the long term fundamentals, for any number of reasons, most of which will be explained away by analysts after the fact.

Until someone gives a satisfactory explanation of how knowing long term fundamentals will benefit my trading on a timeframe where said long term fundamentals are completely irrelevant, I'll still be here telling you that fundamentals are completely...

I'm not arguing against the technical perspective as I for one build my own strategies from thoroughly backtested technical phenomenons. However, the very basis of my system was begun with an understanding of the underlying fundamentals that drive the market: hope, fear, and greed. Sure it is completely feasable to give yourself an edge over the market based on technicals alone but thats like playing the game without one of your five senses. Why not give yourself every tool available to understand the current market scenario? Every trade (whether we want to believe it or not) has its own unique market scenario (liquidity, market sentiment, etc) that is different from every other trade before it or after. Sure the technicals line up and money can be made just the same as the previous signal you got from your system but how many pips will it move? How far will the market push in its trend and how fast will it get there? These kinds of questions become much easier to answer and with more certainty when you understand the fundamentals of the market. S/R is great and for the most part can protect us when we are uncertain but I say why be uncertain where price will go? Use S/R WITH fundamentals and now your uncertainty is minimized (not eliminated of course)

When you start to understand the fundamentals of the market you begin to understand the market in a new way. You get a "feel" for where its going and from there you can build your charting strategy to maximize your returns in that market.
  • #98
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:52am Jan 17, 2012 1:52am
Quoting jag1966
Point taken & I agree fundis dictate direction but they also are a tool for massive manipulation of price using dis-information. I am a retail trader and I am currently intra day so fundis are a total waste of my time.
I totally agree minus the last sentence. People with money use information to manipulate the market which is all the more reason to pay attention to their bs. That bs is what crushes the retail investors since they basically have the ability to "cheat" and we're the ones picking up the tab when they're cashing out at the end of a long trend. When that bs hits the news the market follows. Just MHO
  • #99
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:53am Jan 17, 2012 1:53am
Quoting EliteJ

When you start to understand the fundamentals of the market you begin to understand the market in a new way. You get a "feel" for where its going and from there you can build your charting strategy to maximize your returns in that market.
Excellent posts.

I summarise by looking at fundamentals as a way of helping me decide whether to look for opportunities to buy dips or sell rallies, then I'll use technicals to find an entry.

Fundamentals as part of my analysis work for me and produce a better R:R than technicals alone but each to their own I guess.
  • #100
  • Jan 17, 2012 11:08am Jan 17, 2012 11:08am
Quoting EliteJ
Every trade (whether we want to believe it or not) has its own unique market scenario (liquidity, market sentiment, etc) that is different from every other trade before it or after.
Completely agree here.

Quoting EliteJ
Sure the technicals line up and money can be made just the same as the previous signal you got from your system but how many pips will it move? How far will the market push in its trend and how fast will it get there? These kinds of questions become much easier to answer and with more certainty when you understand the fundamentals of the market.
Completely disagree here. Actually really, really, really strongly disagree. The idea that fundamentals could give you a better idea of how far a trend will last over price action is ridiculous and definitely not supported by conventional trading wisdom-- bubbles, overshot market corrections, all these things fly in the face of what you just said. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" after all, is a direct affront to the idea that fundamentals can tell you anything other than where a trend SHOULD go, but may not necessarily go.

Signals are generated from price action; how far the market will push in its trend and how fast will it get there is answered by price action and price action alone. Both the signal to enter and the signal to get out are based off of flows during the day (or days, or week, or month, etc.).

Quoting EliteJ
When you start to understand the fundamentals of the market you begin to understand the market in a new way. You get a "feel" for where its going and from there you can build your charting strategy to maximize your returns in that market.
When you start to understand price action, you begin to understand the market in a new way. You know where its going and from there you maximize your returns in the market. No "feel", as that is my whole argument against fundamentals-- there's way too much ambiguity. On an intraday basis, analysts and commentators pay lip service to fundamentals after the movement is done-- completely useless. And their forecasts, while possibly accurate, are irrelevant to day to day trading as the fundamentals in play behind their forecast may not be what's driving price on any given day, week, or even month.

Again, if using them work for you and improve your trading, by all means don't stop. I just don't find the arguments that it does help your trading, especially when the justifications provided are demonstrably wrong (such as the idea that fundamentals could tell you how long a trend will last), convincing-- but I wouldn't expect you to stop doing something that works just because I'm not convinced it does.
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