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Trendlines with Heiken Ashi and Stochs System

  • #121
  • Sep 9, 2011 1:22pm Sep 9, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting simmo24
Thanks for that Hugh. I was working from home today, so was able to keep an eye on the charts, and I saw that the Gbpusd had spiked through resistance and the 100ema on the hourly chart, the HA had changed colour, so reasoning that it is hopefully going to hit my buy point on the daily chart I posted earlier, I took a quick small sell trade. Reading your post on using lower timeframes made me look at the possibility. I'm at breakeven now so nothing to lose. :0)
I don't know what your take profit was but it looks like trailing it was a good idea ;-)
  • #122
  • Jan 12, 2012 5:01am Jan 12, 2012 5:01am
Hi Hugh,
I know you have a few other successful forums going right now, but I thought Id post here as , this type of trading makes the most sense to me.
Your thoughts comments of course are welcome.

Cheers

SR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD%2FCAD--240 Minute.jpg Size: 167 KB
  • #123
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:54pm Jan 12, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting Sjr
Hi Hugh,
I know you have a few other successful forums going right now, but I thought Id post here as , this type of trading makes the most sense to me.
Your thoughts comments of course are welcome.

Cheers

SR
Looks like a reasonable trade but I'd suggest you don't use a take profit, this type of trade is better left to run as far as it can. I would trail the stop loss behind the high of the penultimate (second to last) closed candle and if it creates a wick then you know the trend is slowing down, trail it more closely.
  • #124
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:57pm Jan 12, 2012 1:57pm
Just had a look and seen the trade didn't work out. I notice you are trading 4 hour charts, I think daily charts are better. The trend on that pair at the moment is somewhat sideways and difficult to predict, maybe switch to dailies for a while unless there is a very clear trend on h4?
  • #125
  • Jan 12, 2012 10:21pm Jan 12, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Just had a look and seen the trade didn't work out. I notice you are trading 4 hour charts, I think daily charts are better. The trend on that pair at the moment is somewhat sideways and difficult to predict, maybe switch to dailies for a while unless there is a very clear trend on h4?

Yeah took a hit on that trade...Bummer what you gonna do.
Still in Demo mode.
Ill take a look at the Daily time frame, however I have found some success on the 4H charts as well, currently short on the NZ/USD.

Cheers

SR
  • #126
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:39am Jan 13, 2012 2:39am
Heres my latest trade.
Looking at the 4 H chart had some good reasons to try a short trade.
It was a break even in the end, but left pips on the table.
Any thougts comments welcome...

Cheers

SR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZD%2FUSD--240 Minute.jpg Size: 166 KB
  • #127
  • Jan 13, 2012 4:03am Jan 13, 2012 4:03am
Quoting Sjr
Heres my latest trade.
Looking at the 4 H chart had some good reasons to try a short trade.
It was a break even in the end, but left pips on the table.
Any thougts comments welcome...

Cheers

SR
My first thought is that you were trying to trade a countertrend move in a strong uptrend. These are always lower probability.

The best way to trade a change in trend is to wait for the uptrend line to be broken and retested from below. Then put a pending order below the initial break out candle so that if the trend change continues then you are in the trade with the momentum. I'll try and post an example sometime.
  • #128
  • Jan 13, 2012 4:20am Jan 13, 2012 4:20am
Thx Hugh..
  • #129
  • Jan 13, 2012 6:59am Jan 13, 2012 6:59am
Looking at it again the other thing I would say is look at where it stopped. Right at the previous resistance level of that last move up. Resistance became support.
  • #130
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:44pm Jan 13, 2012 1:44pm
Your right Hugh, I noticed that as well after the trade was closed. Such an obvious place really.
I completely ignored the previous resistance area and was focusing on the indicators getting the entry right.
I know you've spoken about this before, it doesn't matter so much on entry as it matters how you manage the trade once on board. That area should have been a clue as to where to take some profit...still learning as I go. I have to say thou the HA Candles with the indicators attached have really helped me identify how the market is moving and how to take advantage of that.
Also, moving away from the lower time frames i.e H1 charts and focusing on the 4H charts has been better for me. Who knows maybe D1 charts next ?

Cheers

SR
  • #131
  • Jan 14, 2012 7:01am Jan 14, 2012 7:01am
Quoting Sjr
Your right Hugh, I noticed that as well after the trade was closed. Such an obvious place really.
I completely ignored the previous resistance area and was focusing on the indicators getting the entry right.
I know you've spoken about this before, it doesn't matter so much on entry as it matters how you manage the trade once on board. That area should have been a clue as to where to take some profit...still learning as I go. I have to say thou the HA Candles with the indicators attached have really helped me identify how the market is moving and...
Nothing will tell you the direction the price will move next. Just concentrate on allowing yourself to be wrong more than you are right and making more when you win than you lose when you are wrong and you are THERE!

I so wish I had been told this 4 years ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #132
  • Jan 14, 2012 7:17am Jan 14, 2012 7:17am
Quoting Sjr
Your right Hugh, I noticed that as well after the trade was closed. Such an obvious place really.
I completely ignored the previous resistance area and was focusing on the indicators getting the entry right.
I know you've spoken about this before, it doesn't matter so much on entry as it matters how you manage the trade once on board. That area should have been a clue as to where to take some profit...still learning as I go. I have to say thou the HA Candles with the indicators attached have really helped me identify how the market is moving and...
I'm really pleased you're starting to get some focus on what actually matters in trading. At the end of the day there is not one indicator that will tell you for sure what will happen next which for me makes them all redundant. The only thing you can know for sure is that if the price is going down it will POSSIBLY go down some more and therefore it is worth selling. If price is going up it will POSSIBLY go up some more and therefore it is worth buying. To get to this stage so early in your trading career is a massive bonus, some people never get there. It took me years to figure this out even though everyone was telling me this from the start!

You have the know how at your fingertips you just have to assemble it in the right order. Think about a trend. Does price ever just go in a straight line up or down? NO! So logically you MUST use a big enough stop loss to allow the price to do it's "thing" and not stop you out. As I said before you can't KNOW where the price is going but if you develop enough "feel" for the market then you can form an opinion of where the price is going to reach next. Look at 1.25 in eurusd right now. Gbpusd looks definitely bearish right now. Lots of other examples BUT... Be prepared to be wrong.

I drive a lorry for a living at the moment. If I'm wrong in that profession then people can DIE! If I'm wrong as a trader then the best thing I can do is shut the trade down. It's no great shakes to be wrong about the direction of a trade. The wrong thing to do is to convince yourself that you're right and so hold on so long that you accrue a huge loss. That is why most traders lose money and I repeat, don't waste your time with indicators, they can't tell you shit. If it's going up, buy it, if it's going down, sell it. That's all there is to it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I really hope this sinks in quickly because I lost a lot of money in the process of finding this out even though everyone told me this from the start!!!!!!!!!!!

Reading the above makes me think that Steven Spielberg should be involved somewhere along the line.

Actually I'm a bit drunk and thought that I had lost the above but found it again in a different tab and so answered again with the half assed answer above. I can't emphasise enough the importance of not being drawn in to the indicator trap. It's a game of probabilities and in actual fact you could probably change the capitalised words above from possibly to probably and therefore make a killing. Just learn it early and don't do what most people do and try to predict what will happen next because nobody can know.

Good luck with your trading and please post results.
  • #133
  • Jan 14, 2012 7:31am Jan 14, 2012 7:31am
Another thing that springs to mind is that Renko is far superior to time based charts. Research it and let me know what you think.
  • #134
  • Jan 14, 2012 7:37am Jan 14, 2012 7:37am
Hugh,
I have been trading for over 40 years and have been looking at Forex for the past few. Many years ago I used the FX market to hedge out some currency risk in my Japanese Warrant trading. See my story at www.perfectstormtradingstrategy.com

Your thread on using long term trends to trade is the best I have seen at Forexfactory. It clearly will give the so called newbee and hopefully some of the others, a real good way to make some lowere risk profits in this market. Bravo.

You may also be able to use RSI set to 10 to help. Again, I agree that the overbought, oversold is basically BS and the cross above 50 is much better. Keep on with the good work!!!
  • #135
  • Edited 7:28pm Jan 14, 2012 2:00pm | Edited 7:28pm
Hey Hugh,
Just read thru yout last few posts. Your totally right about indicators. For me I use TL S&R and PA analysis to make my decisions, however the TDI indicator (or CCI 6) on the 4H charts helps me look at a potential trade entry in the right direction.
Interestingly, I noticed that when the market is/has been trending for sometime, I start looking as to how to get into the market in the opposite direction. (picking tops/bottoms anyone ?) What Ive started looking at recently is what if I drop down a time frame i.e 4H to 1H and trade in the same direction after say a small pullback Im much more successful. Its something Im going to Use/ experiment with more.
Anyways, Ill keep posting here, chart examples included, and we'll see what happens.

Thanks again for your replies.

SR
  • #136
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:46pm Jan 16, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting HedgeGuy
Hugh,
I have been trading for over 40 years and have been looking at Forex for the past few. Many years ago I used the FX market to hedge out some currency risk in my Japanese Warrant trading. See my story at www.perfectstormtradingstrategy.com

Your thread on using long term trends to trade is the best I have seen at Forexfactory. It clearly will give the so called newbee and hopefully some of the others, a real good way to make some lowere risk profits in this market. Bravo.

You may...
Thanks for your kind words.
  • #137
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:49pm Jan 16, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting Sjr
Hey Hugh,
Just read thru yout last few posts. Your totally right about indicators. For me I use TL S&R and PA analysis to make my decisions, however the TDI indicator (or CCI 6) on the 4H charts helps me look at a potential trade entry in the right direction.
Interestingly, I noticed that when the market is/has been trending for sometime, I start looking as to how to get into the market in the opposite direction. (picking tops/bottoms anyone ?) What Ive started looking at recently is what if I drop down a time frame i.e 4H to 1H and trade in the...
No worries. At the end of the day it is only ever down to what works for you so if that method is best for you then run with it. Don't forget to record all your trades, ideally with screenshots, so you can go back through and learn from mistakes as well as successess. Looking forward to you posting charts here.
  • #138
  • Jan 18, 2012 12:25am Jan 18, 2012 12:25am
Hi,

Im going short on the E/U on the 1H chart. demo of course
Im doing this as real time as I can.....so no one can say I posted after the fact LOL,

Wish me luck...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR%2FUSD--60 Minute.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #139
  • Jan 18, 2012 1:13am Jan 18, 2012 1:13am
Quoting Sjr
Hi,

Im going short on the E/U on the 1H chart. demo of course
Im doing this as real time as I can.....so no one can say I posted after the fact LOL,

Wish me luck...
Seemed like a good trade, not sure what's causing this bounce right now but it could easily turn in your favour.
  • #140
  • Jan 18, 2012 1:14am Jan 18, 2012 1:14am
Why 1h charts now though? I still think daily is best. You trade less but less is more.
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