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vsa with Malcolm

  • #22,481
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:05am Jan 12, 2012 9:05am
Quoting KinsaleForex
i'm going to bring this thread back to life if it fucking kills me.
I checked for a pulse but I thick she's still dead Liam... anyway I already shared my thoughts with you on this trade and chart so I won't bore you again...

Trust your trades... you are seeing the set-ups now pull the trigger and let the market take you out if you were wrong. Second guessing your set-ups is costing you money. The only way you should get out or move to BE early is if you take another look at the trade and realize it wasn't a good trade. If that's the case make the notes about it, learn from it and consider yourself lucky to get out with minimal profit or loss.

Even good trades need room to breath, no straight lines in this business (most days)...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #22,482
  • Jan 12, 2012 9:15am Jan 12, 2012 9:15am
Quoting KinsaleForex
..As usual, all the fibs coming from the left edge are from the respective high volume or wide range bar areas from the day before. Green for 1hr, Orange for 15, Pink for 5. The first fib I added for today's action was at A, i forgot a line on the chart but you can hopefully see where I mean. This area didn't show immediate weakness as the chart pushed up and bounced along the top of this area. Once (and if) it broke into the body of bar A i was going to look for shorts. We rejected the high of the hourly bar from the day before and broke back into...
I would have taken the otherside of this one.

First, I see A as an Effort to Rise (strength) as well as a wide range bar that is a key change in the supply/demand dynamic. Since these are bars and not candles, I would be using the range of the bar and not the range of the body. So I would have a line at the high and a line at the low of A. Just as you do.

So the first ND is in the right place for me. It represents a lack of BB interest in higher prices in an area where they had previously shown a desire to take prices higher. However, I don't think I would be looking to short it. Infact, I see B as Squat that was potentially a key reversal bar. Three intervals later there is a Test. I would getting long on a breach of the high of that Test.

This one I would have gotten right.

Now let's take a look at C. From your chart I would say that this is an Effort to Fall (Weakness). The interval prior is the wide range bar that represent a key change in the supply/demand dynamic. Again, I would be placing my lines at the high and low of this bar (as you have). D is my favorite bar-an outside key reversal bar. However, it is in the wrong place. After D we get the Up thrust. Note that this Up Thrust is partially within the WRB zone. This is Up Thurst if followed by No Demand. The ND is in the correct place (only need 1 tick/pip on or in the zone) and it is coming within the range of the Effort to Fall. The BBs were clearly bearish in this area once and now as price moves up within this area they are withdrawing. They must stil be bearish. This is my signal to get short.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,483
  • Jan 12, 2012 11:18am Jan 12, 2012 11:18am
Quoting ivonivon
Things that suddenly come to my wonder:

1) Gavin wrote two books
2) Tom Williams has just launched his new book
3) Frequent discounted software, book, and training material
4) Various trading rooms at Tradeguider

If VSA is so profitable, why bother selling books etc.
Has good soul and angelic-ly help others to become good trader? Sure they are.

Now here's what profitable: selling many product and book copies!

OK OK ill bite:

If you have gotten too cynical with all the other snake-oil salesman out there and dont trust VSA- go to the original source of VSA and study Wyckoff. VSA is just boiling down Wyckoff.

I dont think anyone doubts that Wyckoff was an extremely profitable trader that knew what he was talking about.

This was my thinking when i first chose to study VSA but I guess you wont know until you really throw yourself into it and do everything you can to make this work.
  • #22,484
  • Jan 12, 2012 12:08pm Jan 12, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting pres78
I checked for a pulse but I thick she's still dead Liam... anyway I already shared my thoughts with you on this trade and chart so I won't bore you again...

Trust your trades... you are seeing the set-ups now pull the trigger and let the market take you out if you were wrong. Second guessing your set-ups is costing you money. The only way you should get out or move to BE early is if you take another look at the trade and realize it wasn't a good trade. If that's the case make the notes about it, learn from it and consider yourself lucky...
  • #22,485
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:19pm Jan 12, 2012 1:19pm
So what was the big tip off to spot this 150 pip euro rally with vsa?
  • #22,486
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:12pm Jan 12, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting Deusomega
So what was the big tip off to spot this 150 pip euro rally with vsa?

for me the tip was the shooting star or upthrust- call it anything- on large volume on m15 of usd index chart,quite easy to spot
Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,487
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:38pm Jan 12, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting ivonivon
Things that suddenly come to my wonder:

1) Gavin wrote two books
2) Tom Williams has just launched his new book
3) Frequent discounted software, book, and training material
4) Various trading rooms at Tradeguider

If VSA is so profitable, why bother selling books etc.
Has good soul and angelic-ly help others to become good trader? Sure they are.

Now here's what profitable: selling many product and book copies!

But don't let it make you doubt about VSA. The principles behind VSA are the principles that explains the market movements and allows us to read it very precisely. If you understand the principles, you can read what is going on and the most probable outcome. So, give credit to VSA principles, study it with dedication. As Tom Williams says, we will be happy when we master the principles(that are based on Wyckoff, as radicalboy said).

Now, clearly, TradeGuider and Gavin, in particular, are mover in the sales business than trading. I don't believe Tom is behind all this sales pitches.
I agree with you that TradeGuider's products are too much. Sometimes I catch myself laughing with new services releases, like the last book with Tom's VSA Club newsletters.

So, in short(sorry if it is already too long!), don't pay attention to the sales side of VSA if it disturbs you. We don't need the trading rooms neither the software(if you use MT4 you have tick volume for free and the bettervolume indicator). Pay attention to the contents of what Gavin and Tom says(well, disregard the sales pitches :-), study the principles and master how to read the market based on it.
And even with that said, VSA, for me, is one of the VERY few good things out there about trading and TradeGuider, with all the sales talk, is a good place to stay with.

Also, I would like to disclose that I purchased the software and subscribed for the futures trading room during 1 month only.

Study VSA! It will pay you. Don't be discouraged by what you don't like about the sales talk.

Cheers!
  • #22,488
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:46pm Jan 12, 2012 7:46pm
Quoting Deusomega
So what was the big tip off to spot this 150 pip euro rally with vsa?
You can see accumulation coming in in the 1hr chart of January, 11th(if I am not wrong). You can see a very high volume, large spread bar in the 1hr chart. After that bar, the market drifted lower but with low volume.
And yesterday, there was a very clear pin bar, with high volume, in the 15min chart.
Also, if you look at the daily chart, you will see that the bounce come back off of a very important swing point in this daily chart(you have to have these lines on your chart marked in advance).

Also, the pin bar(shake out?) in the 15min that I mentioned, bounced from the base of a gap bar(hidden gap) in the 1hr chart. The gap up showed that there was a strong demand area(lots of buy orders) there so, we could expect a bounce up after the price revisited that area.

That said, I have to say that I was able to make only 5 pips off all this move! Call me stupid, I will accept! :-)

Cheers! And sorry to not post a chart here as I am not with my trading computer now.
  • #22,489
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:54pm Jan 12, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting joaoborras
But don't let it make you doubt about VSA. The principles behind VSA are the principles that explains the market movements and allows us to read it very precisely. If you understand the principles, you can read what is going on and the most probable outcome. So, give credit to VSA principles, study it with dedication. As Tom Williams says, we will be happy when we master the principles(that are based on Wyckoff, as radicalboy said).

Now, clearly, TradeGuider and Gavin, in particular, are mover in the sales business than trading. I don't believe...
VSA indeed sucks dude.. you can see why in all my posts.
It's just something that will cross all skeptic traders.
Though I'm not solely trading using it now, here's one valid entry after yest news.

My sentiment short-term is bullish right now.
in VSA scenario, shakeout, pushing through supply, then tested.
On order flow the offer's now been lifted.
Next barrier will be 1.2870 Dec daily low.
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  • #22,490
  • Jan 13, 2012 1:58am Jan 13, 2012 1:58am
Bar 1 Mark down bar
1A preliminary support MAYBE ?
Bar 2 Small range and a ton of volume Poor result but great effort by sellers to push down the market. Selling climax ? Possible

Form Bar 2 we had must to mark down more no follow through in to the down side and we are
near the previous low So the sellers are selling at the low but we can't go down more.
Bar 3 Secondary test
= SELLING CLIMAX
Bar 3 and the previous bar are closing above support.
Bar 4 shakeout we took aout the previous resistance but behind you you have the selling climax.
Bar 4 went down to resistance and closed above it.
Bar 5 icrease in volume and increase in bar lenght. DEMAND
6 Possible Ut but the market after a bar like that must to go down more it din't
Until the low of the demand bar is taken out by selling we have strenght not weakness.
3 bars after the 6 showing lack of demand and are the retest of the UT but from that action you want to see the sellers to step in No sellers there Market correction.
The 3 bars before the 4 bar are doing cluster closes.


Equation : Selling climax +shakeout (at the retest of the high of the mark down bar your expectations are: we had must to mark down more but we formed a shakeout someone still buying under the resistance ) + demand
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  • #22,491
  • Jan 13, 2012 2:17am Jan 13, 2012 2:17am
Quoting Manekineko
Bar 1 Mark down bar
1A preliminary support MAYBE ?
Bar 2 Small range and a ton of volume Poor result but great effort by sellers to push down the market. Selling climax ? Possible

Form Bar 2 we had must to mark down more no follow through in to the down side and we are
near the previous low So the sellers are selling at the low but we can't go down more.
Bar 3 Secondary test
= SELLING CLIMAX
Bar 3 and the previous bar are closing above support.
Bar 4 shakeout we took aout the previous resistance but behind you you have the selling climax.
Bar...
Just an opinion. I like to see the bar 3 as a shakeout. The selling climax was, actually, in bar 2 with ultra high volume and large spread. The SM was buying from the late sellers.
For me, the accumulation process started at bar 1, that had high volume. The next bar was up, showing there was buying there. Than, we had a red bar closing in the middle, with low volume(a possible test?).
This price action formed the background for the next day and, IMO, was the "cause" for the mark up phase started yesterday.
What do you think?

Cheers!
  • #22,492
  • Edited 9:27am Jan 13, 2012 3:20am | Edited 9:27am
[quote=joaoborras;5291640]Just an opinion. I like to see the bar 3 as a shakeout. The selling climax was, actually, in bar 2 with ultra high volume and large spread. The SM was buying from the late sellers.
For me, the accumulation process started at bar 1, that had high volume. The next bar was up, showing there was buying there. Than, we had a red bar closing in the middle, with low volume(a possible test?).
This price action formed the background for the next day and, IMO, was the "cause" for the mark up phase started yesterday.
What do you think?
The accumulation trading range has started from friday 6 from the mark down bar WRB down with the wide range.From that bar we had the new low. Thuesday 10 was the first test of the friday's WRB


Bar 1 is the preliminary support is the first swing.
Bar 3 is the secondary test = lack of selling
Yes bar 2 yes is the selling climax VOLUME AND RANGE DOESN'T MATCH and no follow through down.
The bar after 1 i mean the red there is some buying going on but after we went down not up i want to call it lack of demand from a possible support.
Untill the demand bars low are not taken out by supply you have strenght
because supply must to overcame demand if we want to go down.
Accumulation phases are a long process they need to form a trading range before the mark up because buying when supply still present it's not good.
If the sellers restep in buyers will loose.
Weak reaction at support or lack of demand at support it means two stuffs the sellers can come in or the support hold.
If the sellers came in at creek it means the support doesn't hold.
  • #22,493
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:43am Jan 14, 2012 10:43am
Quoting ivonivon
VSA indeed sucks dude.. you can see why in all my posts.
It's just something that will cross all skeptic traders.
Though I'm not solely trading using it now, here's one valid entry after yest news.

My sentiment short-term is bullish right now.
in VSA scenario, shakeout, pushing through supply, then tested.
On order flow the offer's now been lifted.
Next barrier will be 1.2870 Dec daily low.
wow Man very good read. I readed the same but not acted....
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,494
  • Jan 15, 2012 4:39am Jan 15, 2012 4:39am
Quoting ivonivon
VSA indeed sucks dude.. you can see why in all my posts.

My sentiment short-term is bullish right now.
in VSA scenario, shakeout, pushing through supply, then tested.
On order flow the offer's now been lifted.
Next barrier will be 1.2870 Dec daily low.
good call
  • #22,495
  • Edited 5:51am Jan 15, 2012 5:19am | Edited 5:51am
this weak will be interesting for gbp. Some serious SOS in the immediate background, however overall still lots of weakness present.
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  • #22,496
  • Jan 15, 2012 5:28am Jan 15, 2012 5:28am
here is a screenshot of part of one of my charts (eur/usd H1). All of the labels were put in manually.
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  • #22,497
  • Jan 15, 2012 6:42am Jan 15, 2012 6:42am
Quoting apple_sauce
this weak will be interesting for gbp. Some serious SOS in the immediate background, however overall still lots of weakness present.
agree,will probalbly see a minor rally to enter again short

do you have an indicator for naming the bars or is it manually written?
Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,498
  • Jan 15, 2012 7:14am Jan 15, 2012 7:14am
Hi. I also would like to post my comments on euro.
I agree with Apple Sauce that there is some signals of strength coming in in the last sell off in the euro, last Friday.
We had ultra high volume(indeed, the higher volume in more than 1 month), than the formation of a pin bar, showing rejection and buying pressure coming in. The market closed above the low, what can be a stop loss hunting or shakeout. Also, the news are not good at all, with France and other countries downgraded by S&P.
The trend is still to the downside but we can see some rally before the next sell wave and I marked on the chart some probable levels to be reached and sold in this possible rally.



Cheers!
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  • #22,499
  • Jan 15, 2012 7:54am Jan 15, 2012 7:54am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi. I also would like to post my comments on euro.
I agree with Apple Sauce that there is some signals of strength coming in in the last sell off in the euro, last Friday.
We had ultra high volume(indeed, the higher volume in more than 1 month), than the formation of a pin bar, showing rejection and buying pressure coming in. The market closed above the low, what can be a stop loss hunting or shakeout. Also, the news are not good at all, with France and other countries downgraded by S&P.
The trend is still to the downside but we can see some rally...

Very good job Joao!

I think we all agree this could be a great oportunity to Buy Euros, I will not think about closing my Longs until 1.30xx but for that we have to visit that first.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,500
  • Jan 15, 2012 8:17pm Jan 15, 2012 8:17pm
Ultra high volume came in on the Euro Friday which maybe strength, but we are still in a down trend and on the daily we had a 2 bar reversal. Looking for a small rally up to get short.
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