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Fundamental vs Technical

  • #61
  • Jan 3, 2012 12:52pm Jan 3, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting smittens4212

Right, and I personally believe judging that context to be extraordinarily difficult and not worth the time. Again, you're trying to determine how, globally, a consortium of banks, funds, commercials, etc. are going to both forecast and react to fundamentals
You're right, it is extraordinarily difficult, which is why I pick a respected analyst who has an impressive track record and an army of researchers and analysts behind him, you don't get head hunted from BNP Paribas and appointed global head of foreign exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley for nothing!

Personally I don't blindly follow anything anyone says, I make my own mind up and act accordingly. Like I've said before, I use fundamentals for directional bias and technicals to try and pick levels, it's not rocket science and to me it makes perfect sense to form a complete picture. It suits my temperament and style of trading, it obviously wouldn't suit everyone as we're all different and we trade differently.

There was a debate about this subject a couple of years back, it's just a revamp of that really, nothing's changed much.

Bottom line, if it makes money then people can swing from the chandeliers in the buff whistling dixie as far as I'm concerned, each to their own and in a business where an alleged >90% lose money they must be doing something right!

Quoting smittens4212

I simply think (as I assume almost everyone here also does) that my way of trading is best.
I'm not conceited enough to think that my way of trading is 'best'. It makes money, sure, but there are better systems, strategies, and traders out there that's for sure!

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  • #62
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:08pm Jan 3, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting Trader000
how about warren buffett ? Obama asked that guy to complete the law ... and he is potential to replace Bernanke . I guess he is also shit 2?
To be fair, Warren Buffet got burned in forex market couple year ago. He lost billions. He decided forex was not his thing and vowed never speculating in forex market again.
  • #63
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:30pm Jan 3, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting Emg

To be fair, Warren Buffet got burned in forex market couple year ago. He lost billions. He decided forex was not his thing and vowed never speculating in forex market again.
Buffet and Gates wasn't it, both lost money on the dollar. Still, they can afford it, probably no different than us having a loss....just bigger!
  • #64
  • Jan 5, 2012 9:35am Jan 5, 2012 9:35am
Quoting jag1966

With you all the way DC, there is just no need for trying to understand all that fundi crap, hats off to those that can trade it tho.

Long cable off every pullback today, what a day.
Kinda nicely demonstrates the potential value of fundamentals (alongside technicals), you're buying dips while right now the fundamental analysis points towards selling rallies, and 1.25 for Eur/Usd by March.


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  • #65
  • Jan 5, 2012 10:11am Jan 5, 2012 10:11am
Quoting pipmutt
Kinda nicely demonstrates the potential value of fundamentals (alongside technicals), you're buying dips while right now the fundamental analysis points towards selling rallies, and 1.25 for Eur/Usd by March.


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Err, 1.25 by March, more like next week by the looks of it LOL.

As for fundis I wouldn't know, I avoid them by choice, todays Cable / EU sell off / strong dollar was a no brainer due to the daily/weekly technicals IMHO.
  • #66
  • Jan 5, 2012 10:22am Jan 5, 2012 10:22am
Quoting jag1966
Err, 1.25 by March, more like next week by the looks of it LOL.

As for fundis I wouldn't know, I avoid them by choice, todays Cable / EU sell off / strong dollar was a no brainer due to the daily/weekly technicals IMHO.
Ah but today isn't the 3rd tho, ~1.5c to 3c ago
  • #67
  • Jan 5, 2012 11:44am Jan 5, 2012 11:44am
Quoting pipmutt
if it makes money then people can swing from the chandeliers in the buff whistling dixie as far as I'm concerned,-
Good, because I used to make my living doing that. Not that the pay was very good. In fact, I was paid to stop, more often than not.

But seriously, though, don't you think that is the wrong attitude when you are running a bank? Old fashioned integrity seems to have gone out of the window and we can't trust the .....ers any more.
Gone to a better place
  • #68
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:25pm Jan 5, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting smikester
Good, because I used to make my living doing that. Not that the pay was very good. In fact, I was paid to stop, more often than not.
lol

Quoting smikester
But seriously, though, don't you think that is the wrong attitude when you are running a bank?
What, swinging from the chandeliers?

Quoting smikester
Old fashioned integrity seems to have gone out of the window and we can't trust the .....ers any more.
Oh I don't trust them, even the likes of Morgan Stanley have convictions for malpractice, fraud, and violations, but as far as individual analysts go it's down to their track record. If they're consistent I think they can be a tremendous asset to a trader and another valuable tool in the toolbox, at least that's what I've found.
  • #69
  • Jan 5, 2012 2:43pm Jan 5, 2012 2:43pm
After years trading several markets with several types of analysis, I can say I feel most comfortable trading pure price action on higher timeframes. I have my daily routine scanning the charts and I can take all my time to do so. Much less stress and the equity curve is still doing fine.
  • #70
  • Jan 5, 2012 5:06pm Jan 5, 2012 5:06pm
i just ask one simple question guys who blast fundie: anyone of you guys here can show your bank's statement cover 3 years trading with profitable result?

while guys like soros, buffet .... made billions in his 40s years trading . It is enough to say fundamental worked
  • #71
  • Jan 6, 2012 12:20am Jan 6, 2012 12:20am
Quoting Trader000
i just ask one simple question guys who blast fundie: anyone of you guys here can show your bank's statement cover 3 years trading with profitable result?

while guys like soros, buffet .... made billions in his 40s years trading . It is enough to say fundamental worked
It isn't really a case of blasting fundis, after 5 or so years studying forex, techies worked for me, many many others say the same. For us there really is no need for fundis at all.

Once you understand charts they don't lie, the same cannot be said for most fundi news channels. I just don't see the point wasting any more time working on economics or trying to sift the solid news from all the dross.

Yes you can trade using both techs and fundis together, BUT you can trade profitably exclusively with one method, In hindsight trying to learn fundis was a total and unnecessary waste of time, and can actually confuse things further.

As humans we have to learn the hard way I guess.
  • #72
  • Jan 6, 2012 12:54am Jan 6, 2012 12:54am
soros is way ahead of our times ...people hated Livermore blaming him for starting bear runs but the truth is no man can manipulate the markets...he truly one of the greatest of all time.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #73
  • Jan 6, 2012 12:57am Jan 6, 2012 12:57am
Quoting Trader000

It is enough to say fundamental worked
Of course they 'work', they're what drives the market, but they can be complex, appear ambiguous to some traders, and are frequently misunderstood. Technicals by comparison are relatively easy to understand which is why the majority seem to prefer them. They provide clearly defined unambiguous levels, the trade-off is they lag, charts are by definition historical data.

We've seen a perfect example in this thread of the benefit of including fundamentals in one's analysis but obviously they're not for everyone, people wisely accept their limitations and use what works for them which is the sensible thing to do.

In a business where the majority lose though, it's reassuring to be in the minority!
  • #74
  • Jan 6, 2012 3:03am Jan 6, 2012 3:03am
I think someone who does his homework is not in the lazy man get rich quick bussines someone who says i only trade price action this that is imo still in the lazy man get rich quick bussines.

I was in a stage that i didnt understanded fundies still i dont know everything thats the beauty you learn everytime more.
But in that stage i thoght man the news is good why the market goes down things like that. I see so many people have the same there comes in the macro picture some good pmi nrs whatever dont make the trend shift so the macro picture is important and those kind of news you can buy or sell in to will the price action traders. see a engulfingbar or whatever and get hit on the next bars candles or whatever.

Since i came more affective with macro fundamentals i also let my trades run longer and i dont care if they go a bit against me.
The main advantages was that to let trdes run and scale in more comfortable.
  • #75
  • Jan 9, 2012 8:30am Jan 9, 2012 8:30am
...
  • #76
  • Jan 12, 2012 4:42am Jan 12, 2012 4:42am
Quoting jag1966
It isn't really a case of blasting fundis, after 5 or so years studying forex, techies worked for me, many many others say the same. For us there really is no need for fundis at all.

Once you understand charts they don't lie, the same cannot be said for most fundi news channels. I just don't see the point wasting any more time working on economics or trying to sift the solid news from all the dross.

Yes you can trade using both techs and fundis together, BUT you can trade profitably exclusively with one method, In hindsight trying to learn fundis...
agreed in full.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #77
  • Jan 12, 2012 6:59am Jan 12, 2012 6:59am
One of the greatest trader, at least for me,Richard Dennis once answered his turtle apprentice, when asked about his trading style. He said he was technical trader. HIs student then asked : Is fundamental trading over ? Dennis said : Hopefully NOT

I think politicians will never say truth, and is is because people are not willing to hear truth. If for instance we have major issues, they would say it is barely an issue. U have to have enormous resources to find out what is lying under those words. Same goes with mangers and owners of companies...
We all remember Michael Douglas , and famous Wall Street 1987 :

Gordon Gekko: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

or this :

Bud Fox: Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.


I dont see they were relaying on EBC,or FED or any other institutions announcements ?
They were not ether technical traders, but at least we can see their actions on the chart.
Wouldn't you agree ?
  • #78
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:45am Jan 12, 2012 7:45am
Quoting markot
One of the greatest trader, at least for me,Richard Dennis once answered his turtle apprentice, when asked about his trading style. He said he was technical trader. HIs student then asked : Is fundamental trading over ? Dennis said : Hopefully NOT

I think politicians will never say truth, and is is because people are not willing to hear truth. If for instance we have major issues, they would say it is barely an issue. U have to have enormous resources to find out what is lying under those...
Hit the nail on the head with this one buddy. How do fundies traders expect to compete with all the resources and contacts that the main players have. The best we can do is track their actions through the charts. The charts show all.
  • #79
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:59am Jan 12, 2012 7:59am
Quoting Agro
Hit the nail on the head with this one buddy. How do fundies traders expect to compete with all the resources and contacts that the main players have. The best we can do is track their actions through the charts. The charts show all.
I can give another example, although a scholar one.
Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz , was famous because he elaborated asymmetric information.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry
  • #80
  • Jan 12, 2012 7:59am Jan 12, 2012 7:59am
Quoting Agro
Hit the nail on the head with this one buddy. How do fundies traders expect to compete with all the resources and contacts that the main players have. The best we can do is track their actions through the charts. The charts show all.
Price. TIme. VOlume.

Price = vertical movement. u can gauge sentiment, s/r, trendlines, channels, pivots, fibs, - and from price people made indicators - oscillators, moving averages, volatility bands, etc... - market geometry as well is great tool.

Time = Horizontal movement. yes you can time the market - its proven and i do it everyday. whether its planetary or static, or bar counting from certain geometric movement of time - u can use time to help you.

Volume = supply and demand is the basis of all markets. volume a well hidden secret and only manipulated WELL by the best to profit with big buyers/sellers. VSA is one way of doing it - but theres countless ways of reading volume - like price and time.

News = something i dont analyse.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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