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Red Lion on the hunt

  • #61
  • Jan 10, 2012 6:09am Jan 10, 2012 6:09am
Quoting bumapatria
red can u explain more about standard deviation? is price at a standard deviation when away from the bbs upper and lower bands? from what im getting is that SD is deviation from regular means of price movement = volatiltiy. is that correct? and how would you interpret standard deviation?
standard deviation is a statistical tool

the premise is the moving average is the AVERAGE price over a period of time, or fair market value

the bands are just volatility ranges, margin of error, normal price variance.

so in effect the average price encompassed by the bands is the range you can expect and still maintain direction, in other words it ca fluctuate from top to bottom and does not necessarily mean its a change.

being this the case top is high price and bottom is low price within normal price variance.
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  • #62
  • Jan 10, 2012 6:10am Jan 10, 2012 6:10am
i just got a call, need to run to the hospital.............see you guys later
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  • #63
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:51am Jan 10, 2012 9:51am
i believe the market is showing the lack of confidence in the Euro, US equities posting tremendous Gains, which oddly enough is bringing money influx into the
USD

usd/chf, usd/cad both look like a corrective wave is done and impulse north is eminent = USD strength, the Gen continues to find support at 76.80's with USD strength might travel north which will good for the BOJ

AUD, GBP and EURO pairs are showing distribution topping formation.

so now i will be looking for opportunities to ride an impulse wave south (i do believe scalping the intraday's would be a good strategy at this point shorting anything close to 1.2804 and above, however no scalping will be done as it is not part of the strategy,


DOW12,493.30 100.62 0.81%
S&P 5001,294.37 13.67 1.07%
NASDAQ2,708.43 31.87 1.19%
GOLD1,636.70 28.60 1.78%
OIL (WTI)102.71 1.40 1.38%
U.S. 10-YEAR1.979%+0.021
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  • #64
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:56am Jan 10, 2012 9:56am
these are the majors gbp/usd eur/usd aud/usd on the left usd/jpy,usd/cad, usd/chf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: majors.jpg Size: 112 KB



you can tell how price is not showing strength enough to travel outside of current standard deviations it actually seems like overall strength of USD is pulling the euro down, What we are seeing is confidence in the US economy, and no longer just safe heaven,

so i will be shorting this one, when i see an opportunity, there have been many as you can tell the piercing of the bands above 1.2805 but i was not here at the time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: american session.PNG Size: 39 KB
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  • #65
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:02am Jan 10, 2012 10:02am
Quoting the redlion
these are the majors gbp/usd eur/usd aud/usd on the left usd/jpy,usd/cad, usd/chf
Attachment


you can tell how price is not showing strength enough to travel outside of current standard deviations it actually seems like overall strength of USD is pulling the euro down, What we are seeing is confidence in the US economy, and no longer just safe heaven,

so i will be shorting this one, when i see an opportunity, there have been many as you can tell the piercing of the bands above 1.2805 but i was not here at the time
Attachment ...

yeah i guess so - world is okay again checkout gold red.
perhaps u can also analyze usd index if it would help u but i guess not because u already analyzed all majors
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #66
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:06am Jan 10, 2012 10:06am
the world is not ok, but money needs to be made, and invested. Where is the money going is what we need to ask ourselves.

seems like earnings were positive on NYSE and investors are not going from the world is falling--- risk off, the world might not fall today = risk on.

It is not what WE know or think, but where the money flows.
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  • #67
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:09am Jan 10, 2012 10:09am
Quoting the redlion
the world is not ok, but money needs to be made, and invested. Where is the money going is what we need to ask ourselves.

seems like earnings were positive on NYSE and investors are not going from the world is falling--- risk off, the world might not fall today = risk on.

It is not what WE know or think, but where the money flows.
u do realize i was joking bout the world is okay right?

it takes time as u say to change sentiment and crowd behaviour. and for something in that flick of time as from risk off to risk on straight away that would take some stunt from europe as a whole to finally fix the mess up.

the point of most financial ruin is point of most financial opportunity. therefore wherever the peak is of the eurozoen crisis we may see some smart investors coming in..

or maybe not due to the human psychology and all.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #68
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:42pm Jan 10, 2012 8:42pm
looking at charts at the moment and definitely will be looking for good short opportunities today.........

it broke yesterdays low by 14 pips so far statistically there is less probability of a bullish day. 65% of the time when previous low is broken price closes below open.

and the diminishing in bullish pressure, definitely shorts are safer, now a good entry is all i need
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  • #69
  • Jan 11, 2012 12:27am Jan 11, 2012 12:27am
i find it difficult to time this entrance so i will use a two entrance possibly 3 entry process.

initial position at 1.27478, its pre frankie open and fake outs are notorious here.

i believe we are heading south but the market does not give a shit what i believe so i will start with multiple entries if price travels up and appears to lose momentum i will enter second position if in fact i am completely wrong and breaks yesterdays high, the loss will be minimal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: position one.jpg Size: 69 KB
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  • #70
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:17am Jan 11, 2012 1:17am
position 2 implemented at 1.27582

which gives me an average of 2 lots at 1.27529 just above open.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: position2.PNG Size: 33 KB


now i will sit on my hands.......till london open and see what happens then right now 1.24% is my total risk
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  • #71
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:37am Jan 11, 2012 9:37am
took profits on all positions now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: position3.PNG Size: 47 KB


i can see some loss of momentum so i took profits and will await re entry, bias is still down but 123 pip range this could be correcting slightly.
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  • #72
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:46am Jan 11, 2012 9:46am
Quoting the redlion
took profits on all positions now

Attachment

i can see some loss of momentum so i took profits and will await re entry, bias is still down but 123 pip range this could be correcting slightly.
very nicely done
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #73
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:49am Jan 11, 2012 9:49am
you see, i trade the way i taught you, there is nothing mysterious about it..........i just use common sense and define my risk in case i am wrong.
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  • #74
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:26pm Jan 11, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting the redlion
you see, i trade the way i taught you, there is nothing mysterious about it..........i just use common sense and define my risk in case i am wrong.
Nice thread, I am following.
  • #75
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:53pm Jan 11, 2012 6:53pm
today i believe the Bond auctions will be watched closely

Slovakia failed to Generate demand, Italy and Spain will be selling instruments of debt today, technically appears that there the anemic bounce from below 1.26 will probably not last too long, although it is a perceived support.

If German bonds or Italy and Spain fail to generate enough demand the euro will suffer, as it will signal lack of confidence in the ability of EZ government to honor their debt.

so far NYSE, and Asian equities are mixed, and bond yields are down signaling investors influx of money into Japanese bonds.

Gold and Oil are up

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euroasia11112.PNG Size: 46 KB


so bias still on the down side, now will await good strategic entrances
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  • #76
  • Jan 11, 2012 11:40pm Jan 11, 2012 11:40pm
first short position implemented......

Gold, OIL up equities Down, The Euro is showing a topping formation and it's been having resistance below 1.2730

Frankfurt might do the famous fake so only one position will be in place for now.

and will await further confirmation

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11112.jpg Size: 66 KB
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  • #77
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:38am Jan 12, 2012 8:38am
the volatility in the euro is such that my stop loss has been hit, although overall the volatility is below average at 91 pips, the press conference and the successful bond buying as i expected is driving confidence in the euro.

yesterdays high has been taken out, and my observation on this is that it will travel north, perhaps, but it could also correct south to continue range bound.

i will be staying out of the market and await re entry.

what i have noticed though is that taking positions in the ASIAN sessions have been detrimental as no clear direction is ever established.

so no positions will be taken in the asian session, will use Asia to establish an observation and likely scenarios.

1.2660 seems to be a support area, and we could actually be witnessing the beginning of a broader correction. as is evident in the daily chart, down side pressure is losing momentum.

the way it seems to me at this point is that the direction is bullish,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #78
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:43am Jan 12, 2012 8:43am
i am very proud of my strategic money management, and the fact that as is evident in this thread, the way my MM system is set up is that,

losses are not ever too big as they are capped at 1.86%

and stop outs have been only when direction is wrong. in Other words volatility is not a factor in creating negative expectancy.

i feel tempted to being trading the intra day waves, however Psychology to stick to this plan HAS TO PREVAIL
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  • #79
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:31am Jan 13, 2012 9:31am
i simply took no trades this time because seemed like Euro optimism an US back in focus, to be honest the chart looked like it was on its way to a correction.

however the dropp from 1.28772 is more than clear where a we are headed... no position means no risk was taken.

i will post the blotter as promised and will probably run some statistics will look for important news over the weekend,for next week.

this re affirms my belief that the chart is nothing but a record of transaction and transaction changes on information........but we cannot know all information so we attempt to speculate on the transaction record.
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  • #80
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:43am Jan 13, 2012 9:43am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: blotter 1st week.jpg Size: 156 KB


first week performance was + 1.39%

i will post my review and what i think i could have done better now that i have hindsight in my favor, and some trades just are unpredictable.
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