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vsa with Malcolm

  • #22,461
  • Jan 10, 2012 3:08pm Jan 10, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
EU opportunity earlier
That was a very good trade, bad think I was not "awake" at the moment it happened.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,462
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:12pm Jan 10, 2012 11:12pm
Was that a ND on the hourly??
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  • #22,463
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:27pm Jan 10, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting hutrader
Was that a ND on the hourly??
VSA is not a BAR。 this is ND then?
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  • #22,464
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:36pm Jan 10, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting boyce
VSA is not a BAR。 this is ND then?
Could you please explain with what you mean exactly?
Thanks...
  • #22,465
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:48pm Jan 10, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting hutrader
Could you please explain with what you mean exactly?
Thanks...
You should know that in London closed lower vol after the amount need to be careful here. Because it does not represent the lack of demand.
In an active session, you do not need to find a single VSA bar, VSA is on the background of the theory, I think you need to find some of the bearish BAR, rather than the individual ND
  • #22,466
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:16am Jan 11, 2012 1:16am
Quoting boyce
You should know that in London closed lower vol after the amount need to be careful here. Because it does not represent the lack of demand.
In an active session, you do not need to find a single VSA bar, VSA is on the background of the theory, I think you need to find some of the bearish BAR, rather than the individual ND
Thanks now I see the image.
  • #22,467
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:33am Jan 11, 2012 1:33am
Quoting boyce
VSA is not a BAR。 this is ND then?
1 H chart is in a trading range.
Wait for sow or sos.
  • #22,468
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:45am Jan 11, 2012 7:45am
I had an entry on EU and then broke my rules, moved to BE before I should have, that got hit and it went the other way. Confidence. Confidence. Confidence.

Fibs and colours in my sig. If they're coming from the left edge, they're the highest volume from yesterday for that time frame.

A. was the highest volume at the time on the 5min chart so I fibbed this and waited for EU to enter this area. Got a lovely ND and I was brought into the trade on the low. Happy days!

Volume came in at B. and I got spooked and moved to BE, I shouldn't have done this, according to my strategy and I just about got stopped at BE. What I didn't see were the two other NDs that I should've re entered on. Quite annoyed with myself for this. On the plus side I can take positives from this, I read the market right, my initial analysis was good.

Confidence. Confidence. Confidence.
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  • #22,469
  • Jan 11, 2012 8:53am Jan 11, 2012 8:53am
Quoting hutrader
Was that a ND on the hourly??
The basic definition of No Demand is a narrow range up bar on volume less than the previous two intervals. Ideally, the interval in question will be a "buying" bar. That's a misnomer of course, but it means that the interval makes a higher high and not a lower low than the previous interval.

On any chart and on any timeframe you will see many examples of intervals that qualify as No Demands. If you shorted every one of them, you would not be trading very long.

What "makes" a No Demand worthwhile is context and background. If you use Demand/Supply zones a la Sam S, is the No Demand coming in a valid supply zone?

From a more purely VSA standpoint, before the No Demand do you see wide spread up bars on ultra high volume with the next interval down? Do you see Up Thrusts? Do you see effort with no result?

In sum: A narrow range up interval on volume less than the previous two intervals represents a lack of BB participation. A narrow range up interval on volume less than the previous two intervals with weakness in the background represents no interest in higher prices by the BBs. If the BBs aren't interested in higher prices it must be because they expect them to fall.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #22,470
  • Jan 11, 2012 4:32pm Jan 11, 2012 4:32pm
Yes this is copied straight from my blog but i'm going to bring this thread back to life if it fucking kills me.

Had a great entry on EU earlier on today. I committed the cardinal sin and didn't follow my strategy. I moved to BE before I should have and (deservedly in some ways) got stopped out for minimal profit.

I've annotated a chart which i'll run through now.

As usual, all the fibs coming from the left edge are from the respective high volume or wide range bar areas from the day before. Green for 1hr, Orange for 15, Pink for 5. The first fib I added for today's action was at A, i forgot a line on the chart but you can hopefully see where I mean. This area didn't show immediate weakness as the chart pushed up and bounced along the top of this area. Once (and if) it broke into the body of bar A i was going to look for shorts. We rejected the high of the hourly bar from the day before and broke back into the body of A and then printed a lovely ND back into the high of A. Entered my short on the low of this bar @ 1.2764, my stop was on the high at 1.2791.

We pushed down immediately on the next bar and I was brought into the trade. The increase in volume at B spooked me a bit and this is where it all went wrong.

1st mistake - Decided I'd cover myself and move to BE, perhaps with yesterday's loss in my mind as well. It pushed up on ND and I barely got taken at BE, but taken all the same.

2nd mistake - I stopped concentrating, 3 other opportunities presented themselves, the strength I thought I was seeing at B didn't prove itself, we were going down. 1st ND is into the low of the 15min highest volume from yesterday, 2nd ND is into the 50% of A and 3rd ND is into the low of A. Talk about a telegram..

The rest of the chart just covers some points I wanted to make.

C is an interesting bar, in the early days of volume analysis I would see the huge volume and think "great, buying!". This isn't the case, it closes right on the low and was pushing through some support to the left. Next bar is also down and so are subsequent bars. At this stage I would've been trailing my stop, maybe even closing as I'd have been nicely in profit. If I hadn't closed then D would have almost definitely taken me out of the trade as I pulled my stop down.

D represents further weakness, increase in volume, next bar is an upthrust and then a no buying pressure type bar, before crashing back down.

E is important as well, ultra high volume down bar this time closing in the middle, there was certainly some buying in there to close there, next few bars push up but further weakness enters on F, increase in volume closing near the lows.

Criticisms? Comments? Thoughts? Talking rubbish?
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  • #22,471
  • Edited 6:19pm Jan 11, 2012 6:00pm | Edited 6:19pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I had an entry on EU and then broke my rules, moved to BE before I should have, that got hit and it went the other way. Confidence. Confidence. Confidence.

Fibs and colours in my sig. If they're coming from the left edge, they're the highest volume from yesterday for that time frame.

A. was the highest volume at the time on the 5min chart so I fibbed this and waited for EU to enter this area. Got a lovely ND and I was brought into the trade on the low. Happy days!

Volume came in at B. and I got spooked and moved to BE, I shouldn't have...
hey mate!i took that trade for 50 pips!thats why i say we need a chat room!but in many cases i loose good entries because of no confidence!more eyes and more brains adding confidence,lets do it!

ps-regarding the wide spread bars,in most cases in small time frames like m5 the wide spread bar is a breakout through supply or demand and then we should look for no demand or no supply-especially during start of european session where market has been sleeping all night.climactic action should be seen after or near london close,so we should look to take profit then..not always like this ofcourse lol..
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Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,472
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:09pm Jan 11, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Yes...

Well its comforting to know that an experienced VSAer has confidence issues ever now and then as well. After a winning streak that increased my account 7%, last week I lost almost 4% in the two days I traded. I attribute the losses to overconfidence from that win streak, because I ignored some key signs that I was wrong. Now my confidence is shaken and I did pretty much the same thing you did.

I would post a chart but it would be redundant of yours.

After seeing bar B, I decided to wait on a test of B, then a rise through that cluster of NDs, then go long after a test of that area. The ND showed up in the area of B instead of a test, and I decided longs were off and I would go short on the break of the low.

Before it plummeted, the next bar broke the low and then went back up and approached the high of the ND. At that moment, I checked the 1m and saw something that spooked me, and not wanting to add to my losses from last week, I got out.....just seconds before the fall....

I am going to cut my position size in half until I can get goin in the right direction. It all comes down to the keeping to the principles, and trusting them. Last week I saw that I was breaking some of them and stayed in and paid for it. This week they were there but fear crept in.

I know I am the problem. Just keep at it man, from what I read and watch all traders go through this, just trust your system. It is excellent.

edit: Oh yea...check your bar D. That high vol is on the upthrust im pretty sure. May change things for you.
  • #22,473
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:29pm Jan 11, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting Manekineko
I think WRB are filled by limit orders when they place a sell order at market to sell who fill them are the limit buy orders so more are big in size the limit buy orders and more there is a "change of hands" You have two agressors the buyers and the sellers who win ? Is when you have the test of the WRB. Someone must to give up. If the sellers retreat we go up.The buyers win.
The same stuff happen at false break out limit stop buy orders above the resistance filled by market sell orders.
Tell me if i'm wrong.
Hi Manekineko. Sorry for the late reply!
Yes, IMHO the WRB is the result of an imbalance or orders and the area just before the WRB is where the battle between sellers and buyers toke place, i.e, it is there that we have the block or orders.

Cheers!
  • #22,474
  • Jan 11, 2012 11:35pm Jan 11, 2012 11:35pm
Quoting slaphappy
Well its comforting to know that an experienced VSAer has confidence issues ever now and then as well. After a winning streak that increased my account 7%, last week I lost almost 4% in the two days I traded. I attribute the losses to overconfidence from that win streak, because I ignored some key signs that I was wrong. Now my confidence is shaken and I did pretty much the same thing you did.

I would post a chart but it would be redundant of yours.

After seeing bar B, I decided to wait on a test of B, then a rise through that cluster of NDs,...
Do you have a check list or something along those lines that you have to go through every time you take a trade? I imagine you could always find something that will spook you, if you are look for it, unless you stick to concrete rules. Not to criticize, just wondering what you (or anyone) does for that matter so i can learn myself.
  • #22,475
  • Jan 12, 2012 12:28am Jan 12, 2012 12:28am
Quoting KinsaleForex
I had an entry on EU and then broke my rules, moved to BE before I should have, that got hit and it went the other way. Confidence. Confidence. Confidence.

Fibs and colours in my sig. If they're coming from the left edge, they're the highest volume from yesterday for that time frame.

A. was the highest volume at the time on the 5min chart so I fibbed this and waited for EU to enter this area. Got a lovely ND and I was brought into the trade on the low. Happy days!

Volume came in at B. and I got spooked and moved to BE, I shouldn't have done this,...
IMHO, it was good decision to move to BE at B, because the volume appeared in an area of previous demand, if you look at right side.
Then, be stopped out is good because you don't loose.
The fact that you observed the next entry points is also good because it is a positive feedback to your trading plan.
You can add a line saying "take the next entry if the conditions didn't changed fundamentally"(fundamentally here is from VSA point of view).
Other good thing is that you didn't chase the market after it run, just to enter to get the trade.

Cheers!
  • #22,476
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:00am Jan 12, 2012 1:00am
Quoting radicalboy
Do you have a check list or something along those lines that you have to go through every time you take a trade? I imagine you could always find something that will spook you, if you are look for it, unless you stick to concrete rules. Not to criticize, just wondering what you (or anyone) does for that matter so i can learn myself.
Thank you for asking. Criticize all you like. What you say about finding what you are looking for is definately true, and thanks hitting me with that.

I do have a list of things that have to be in place yes. I'll share it with you, but there are definately better traders in here to listen to.

Look at the 1hr to see if the pros are buying or selling. Go down to the lower timeframes and wait for price to get to the most recent top or bottom. Be ready to go long or short, and let volume and spread tell you what to do. If for example, price is approaching a top, look for a lack of supply to enter long. Or to go short, look for heavy supply to come in and then wait till there is no more demand before getting in. Always keeping in mind the 1hr. If there is high volume upbars above you, a long will be short lived and vice versa. Get out when you see the opposing force show up. Thats basically it.

Im a relatively new trader and still haven't fully gotten use to taking losses yet. I still wanna believe I can be 100% at this, and I gotta learn to steel my emotions no matter what happens. Thanks for responding.
  • #22,477
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:51am Jan 12, 2012 1:51am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi Manekineko. Sorry for the late reply!
Yes, IMHO the WRB is the result of an imbalance or orders and the area just before the WRB is where the battle between sellers and buyers toke place, i.e, it is there that we have the block or orders.

Cheers!
Yeah, Ex: wide range up bar, depends who fills the agressive buyers who are paying up if those buyers are filled by large sell limits you have agressive buyers but also agressive sellers
the "No demand bar" means one on the two agressors is giving up about the battle.But if the agressive buyers start to buy more ? The battle restart so you have buyers and sellers on both sides
Wide range bars mean a battle is taking place.= increase in volatility. The true range increases call it a Gap. During a mark up phase JOC or a mark down break of the Ice there is a breakaway gap ( Yes Jaoborras the market doesn't fills the gap. because demand came in to the market or supply.
Those wide range bars are at tops or bottoms --> the selling climax or buying climax. The test is what if the sellers are still selling during the selling climax but they don't supply it.The buyers will defend where they bought ?
Yes VSA and wychoff are not one bar It's a process to spot who is losing the battle and to trade with the winner.
Shakeout are gap filled into an up trend when they test the down wide range bar and it's low is not taken out by supply they form a trading range so the buyers absorb the supply but from a shakeout you want to see the market doing new highs if not, it's not a shakeout,it's supply. Because demand must to overcame supply.Selling and supply if they still in must to be taken out in an up trend by buying and demand.The opposite in a down trend about buyng and demand by selling.
  • #22,478
  • Edited 2:05am Jan 12, 2012 1:54am | Edited 2:05am
Things that suddenly come to my wonder:

1) Gavin wrote two books
2) Tom Williams has just launched his new book
3) Frequent discounted software, book, and training material
4) Various trading rooms at Tradeguider

If VSA is so profitable, why bother selling books etc.
Has good soul and angelic-ly help others to become good trader? Sure they are.

Now here's what profitable: selling many product and book copies!

  • #22,479
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:39am Jan 12, 2012 2:39am
Thanks for everyone's replies. Hopefully the chart helped!

Quoting slaphappy
edit: Oh yea...check your bar D. That high vol is on the upthrust im pretty sure. May change things for you.
Ooops! Good spot, thanks for pointing that out. It doesn't particularly change a lot though. The high volume on the upthrust is selling, we pushed up on high volume before closing near the lows, yes the next bar is up, but the volume is low. For what it's worth, i don't really see an entry on the subsequent move down, maybe if you're daring and looked at the 1min there would be something!
  • #22,480
  • Jan 12, 2012 8:40am Jan 12, 2012 8:40am
Cable opportunity earlier.
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