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Red Lion on the hunt

  • #41
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:31am Jan 9, 2012 12:31am
Quoting the redlion
short implemented at 1.27523 the risk is minimal at 1:3 leverage
if i get stopped out that means is most likely a bullish correction start

only 15% has price moved above 61 pips from open and closed below open
and 84.58% has it closed below open when it does not reach >62 pips from open

however at this point it can very well be the start of a bullish correction, if in fact i do get stopped out i would await a better opportunity to long,

actually i got stopped out as i typed this..........so seems like its the start of a correction now, no sense...

so what im getting is that u use statistics of price beahviour at ur levels of open correct?

and u are using this as an advantage to go with the higher probable happening yes, red?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #42
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:33am Jan 9, 2012 12:33am
Quoting bumapatria
so what im getting is that u use statistics of price beahviour at ur levels of open correct?

and u are using this as an advantage to go with the higher probable happening yes, red?
we all do that buma.

the difference is i ran statistics and i have numbers and %, what you and other traders do is

STATISTICS by exposure, in other words based on what you have observed you have a more probable outcome in mind, correct?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #43
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:39am Jan 9, 2012 12:39am
Ok, I did not have time to read this thread, I think I need to start from the 1st page, in the mean time:

"I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors. Prices, not investors, predict the future. Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, or someone else can. A lot of them look to you to predict what the next macroeconomic cycle will be. We rely on the fact that other investors are convinced that they can predict the future, and I believe that’s where our profits come from. I believe it’s that simple" John W. Henry
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #44
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:44am Jan 9, 2012 12:44am
usually when we have a bullish day it would break previous high which then logically it should break 1.2812

but the reason why i am not so eager to long this yet,

is Merkel Zarkozzy meeting at 11:00 am Berlin time

so i am sure there will be some dumping of the euro then, AT THAT POINT where it finds its footing is where i shall open a long trade.

if in fact i do nothing tonight a 90 cent loss is not something to lose sleep over.

tomorrow night there will be other opportunities.

what i have learned is that, my hunger for action and glory actually has put me in a hole before, that i have to climb out of.

so now patience is the key
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #45
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:58am Jan 9, 2012 12:58am
now, here is an interesting projection for the euro as it stands

1.2900 is approximately the 50% mark from last impulse wave so in the next couple of days that is the target and possibly 1.2950, but like "the mask" said, no one can really predict the future, we think we can, but it is impossible all we can do is work on probabilities and risk
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #46
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:08am Jan 9, 2012 1:08am
Quoting the redlion
now, here is an interesting projection for the euro as it stands

1.2900 is approximately the 50% mark from last impulse wave so in the next couple of days that is the target and possibly 1.2950, but like "the mask" said, no one can really predict the future, we think we can, but it is impossible all we can do is work on probabilities and risk
red i need advice as per usual. ...

im curerntly in some profit in gold and euro longs - but i do realize the risk of a downtrend but i want to also maximize profit potential.

is it better to minimize risk with a BE stop or a +1 or +2 etc profit stop , and leave the trades to work out to their targets (which apparently are not reached yet ) or maintain current stops?

i purposely did not put up charts on it id like ur thread to be pure-redlion on charts and all.

what is ur view on knowing the "end of the wave"? im actually trying to ride it at least near 25% of its end..

to maximize the probabiltiy and potential of that with minimizng risk - what woudl YOU do?

thanks ina dvance buddy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: as much profit.JPG Size: 28 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #47
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:16am Jan 9, 2012 1:16am
Quoting bumapatria
red i need advice as per usual. ...

im curerntly in some profit in gold and euro longs - but i do realize the risk of a downtrend but i want to also maximize profit potential.

is it better to minimize risk with a BE stop or a +1 or +2 etc profit stop , and leave the trades to work out to their targets (which apparently are not reached yet ) or maintain current stops?

i purposely did not put up charts on it id like ur thread to be pure-redlion on charts and all.

what is ur view on knowing the "end of the wave"? im actually trying...
im not too familiar with golds movements but as far as the euro

your stop should be safe, just below open, it should not travel below open. that would be very unusual
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #48
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:17am Jan 9, 2012 1:17am
how did you get on the euro long?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #49
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:22am Jan 9, 2012 1:22am
Quoting the redlion
how did you get on the euro long?
might close it anyways - but i was watching daily - weekly demand and before weekend put up a long on euro with more of the "time trading" techniques.

dont wanna get into it - its ur thread continue with your trading stye - i got my half of sharing my methods on my journal now its ur turn.


as for gold - i actually used volaility to help me - its in an uptrending linear regressed channel and at the lower volatility range, price momentum of sellers died out and i saw weekly pivot and daily support. so i went long i guess..

heres the pic for gold as it is still in the range of soemthing u do as well. before after so u can tell the happening based from past to present perspective without hindsighted disadvantage
Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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gold now above monthly pivot btw


PS try to ignore the oscillators - but if u ask me how i use them id surely share - but again its ur darn thread but as u taught me i can calculate them by hand and draw em out manually i think all i need is calculator and a good line plotter lol haha but no worries im not dumping oscilattors with no knowledge.

u taught me how to do Ta properly - and those oscilators are not for timing entries - more on indicating market situation based on their purpose
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #50
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:26am Jan 9, 2012 5:26am
the meeting of merkozy has come and gone, the euro obviously at least at this point looks to be heading up in what appears to be an overdue correction.

a buy order of 2 lots implemented at 1.27325 with immediate target 1.27845 as is our current high.

basically the two leaders are showing their solidarity towards a better fiscal union, trying to tame the markets till January 30 meeting in Brussels.

i do not expect euro to fall below open for today.

targets are to gauge the strength i do not think i will be taking profits today, will most likely pyramid into this trade as the market shows hand,
when i mention targets it is levels that show continuation or possible weaning of current force
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euroamericasession.jpg Size: 71 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #51
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:53am Jan 9, 2012 5:53am
S&P 500 1,275.25 1.00 0.08% DOW 12,330 21.00 0.17% NASDAQ 2,360 7.75 0.33%

US index futures higher,

London 1:50 pm
Frankfurt 2:50pm
NY 08:50 am-------------39 minutes till open.

Lets see how NY takes this one, i expect NY to push it higher

which is quite possible as today's range has been 108 pips, 88.69% of average True Range.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #52
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:59am Jan 9, 2012 5:59am
Quoting the redlion
S&P 500 1,275.25 1.00 0.08% DOW 12,330 21.00 0.17% NASDAQ 2,360 7.75 0.33%

US index futures higher,

London 1:50 pm
Frankfurt 2:50pm
NY 08:50 am-------------39 minutes till open.

Lets see how NY takes this one, i expect NY to push it higher

which is quite possible as today's range has been 108 pips, 88.69% of average True Range.
ure talking of eurusd range right?

red lets say price is at the end of a true range does that mean it just has less "space" to continue momentum as in reached its "cap" for the day? or does it also mean a possible countertrend trade?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #53
  • Jan 9, 2012 6:12am Jan 9, 2012 6:12am
Quoting bumapatria
ure talking of eurusd range right?

red lets say price is at the end of a true range does that mean it just has less "space" to continue momentum as in reached its "cap" for the day? or does it also mean a possible countertrend trade?
to me......the first is safer.........and also if surpasses it by significant amount the other point of view is ..........break out
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #54
  • Jan 9, 2012 11:53am Jan 9, 2012 11:53am
took profit 1.2755

-0.90 the first trade
+4.50 approx

although i still think the bias is up.....some how i find it risky to leave profits on the table mix signals over equities earnings, technically the buying pressure is not there..........i understand liquidity might not be there but i will play it safe
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #55
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:03pm Jan 9, 2012 12:03pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #56
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:27pm Jan 9, 2012 12:27pm
Hi Red, nice trading today. Glad to see that you stuck with it and got back in after the loss.
  • #57
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:35pm Jan 9, 2012 12:35pm
hey no prob, losses are part of the game, it was negligible risk, and even though the profit i just took is very small it is bigger than a 90 cent loss lol

at this point i rather be squared and await another entrance that will surely come in Asian session, i just do not like the price action formation at this point. US data consumer credit, corporate earnings are all positive

the market did not sell off on merkozy meeting and is probably looking forward to the FED funds rate, interest rate decision by ECB, and EZ summit later this month.

seems to me the current president of the ECB will go for a looser monetary policy.....if he lowers interest rates, continues the swaps or even increases the ECB balance sheets oddly enough it might be what investors are expecting
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #58
  • Jan 10, 2012 3:37am Jan 10, 2012 3:37am
i am taking profits on 3rd trade, although all numbers are bullish

29pips below open
37 pips above

above previous high and prev low

the price action seems to show a diminishing buying pressure, 66 pip range from high to low 54.4% of what is considered normal average range, can indicate a loss of overall bullish momentum

as you can see price is trading at (2) standard deviation and seems to want to correct. So i will await re entry

took profits

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade 2.jpg Size: 81 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #59
  • Jan 10, 2012 3:40am Jan 10, 2012 3:40am
European equities in positive Gold and oil as well, Asian equities were positive although the bond yield just slightly negative, positive yield for UK

so seems like the money flow is there for risk on, however the Euro as of now seems to be running out of fuel.

it is safer to take profits and await clearer waters
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #60
  • Jan 10, 2012 3:48am Jan 10, 2012 3:48am
Quoting the redlion
i am taking profits on 3rd trade, although all numbers are bullish

29pips below open
37 pips above

above previous high and prev low

the price action seems to show a diminishing buying pressure, 66 pip range from high to low 54.4% of what is considered normal average range, can indicate a loss of overall bullish momentum

as you can see price is trading at (2) standard deviation and seems to want to correct. So i will await re entry

took profits

Attachment
red can u explain more about standard deviation? is price at a standard deviation when away from the bbs upper and lower bands? from what im getting is that SD is deviation from regular means of price movement = volatiltiy. is that correct? and how would you interpret standard deviation?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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