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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #1,941
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:37am Jan 6, 2012 4:37am
Yes I have seen the same thing many times, and like you say, If price is at an extreme just before major news, you can be pretty sure its going to reverse!

It will be interesting to see what happens later, I might setup a pending order for that EU short.
  • #1,942
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:47am Jan 6, 2012 8:47am
Quoting bootsyjam
I should be boring and keep a journal of price moves around major news decisions!
The journal may be boring but that 4 month vacation you'll take after profiting from your observations will be exciting.
  • #1,943
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:17am Jan 6, 2012 9:17am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Forex Trade 1.06.2012 USDCHF Short 1H.JPG Size: 118 KB


will just catch the next one. Maybe a swap area trade?
  • #1,944
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:47am Jan 6, 2012 10:47am
Sometimes I wonder if there is much point trading any pair but EU, I mean it leads the market around and all the others seem to follow breaking their levels according to where EU wants to go.

Looking back through the EU chart, one could have sold every 4h pullback and still be holding now, I know its easy to say in hindsight but I feel by looking across all the time frames one can get a good idea of where the price will end up.

Does anyone just trade EU and HOLD their positions?
  • #1,945
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:50pm Jan 6, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting acetrader
TradinginSD,

Nice charts with clear explanations.

__________________________

Thanks... Unfortunately the trade did not go my way. Oh well... that’s trading.

One item concerns me... Previous price action to the set up area was definitely up. Overall trend was up with higher highs and higher lows (conventional wisdom). I’m thinking that maybe this part of the conventional wisdom I should keep in mind on my next trade. The trade was definitely against the current trend to be sure.

Any thought in that area?

Thanks again

TSD
  • #1,946
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:19pm Jan 6, 2012 11:19pm
It has nothing to do with the trend , it was NFP what stopped u out.
  • #1,947
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:14am Jan 7, 2012 6:14am
TraderinSD,

I have had that to happen to me as well & it seems almost every counter trend trade I try goes sour on me. You have to enter at just the right level to be successful & I have on a few, but for the most part they turn on me back in the direction of the trend, so I have decided to stay with the trend & reload in the direction of the trend when price retraces.

Starting on January fourth I have been short starting with one lot & have added one more lot & still short at this time. The second lot was added on the fifth of January & that is how I try & do this while following the supply & demand zones as stated in Kens pdf & what I have read by Sam.

I know other traders that will counter trend trade & do well, but it just does not seem to work well enough for me.

Off topic from your question, but on the sixth of January on the 15M tf price formed a supply zone at approx 1.2800-1.2810 on the EUR/USD & quickly moves away only to return approx two hours later making a weak attempt to enter the zone again, but fail after only one candle then it continues the prevailing trend down in a strong way. Now, had I not already been short two lots at this time I would have enter with another lot at this level as from what I read & from my understanding this second touch would have been a successful trade & it was as can be seen on the chart. Sam does speak about the validity of the second, third & even fourth trades, but for me after the second revisit to a zone I start to pay closer attention to what price does & even closer attention when you see price start to revisit a zone for the third & fourth time. From my observation the more price revisits a zone the more likely it will penetrate that zone in the opposite direction, but nothing is 100%.

Until there is a clear reverse in trend direction for the EUR/USD I see the returns to a supply levels as an opportunity to rejoin the move down, but it want last forever & can change at any moment.

These are just my views from what works for me & not trading advice.
I am still learning Supply & Demand trading, but the picture gets somewhat clearer each day thanks to you & all that share their views, comments & charts.
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  • #1,948
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:18am Jan 7, 2012 6:18am
TraderinSD,

Alter is correct, on that one NFP was the killer & it can be most of the time. Much caution needs to be used on that day.
  • #1,949
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:45am Jan 7, 2012 7:45am
Quoting Ultimatus
Sometimes I wonder if there is much point trading any pair but EU, I mean it leads the market around and all the others seem to follow breaking their levels according to where EU wants to go.

Looking back through the EU chart, one could have sold every 4h pullback and still be holding now, I know its easy to say in hindsight but I feel by looking across all the time frames one can get a good idea of where the price will end up.

Does anyone just trade EU and HOLD their positions?

In a word?

No.
Nor did I hold my GBUSD short.
Nor did I hold my USDCAD long.

Ouch.
4 hour charts rule....
  • #1,950
  • Jan 7, 2012 8:24am Jan 7, 2012 8:24am
Quoting Ultimatus
Sometimes I wonder if there is much point trading any pair but EU, I mean it leads the market around and all the others seem to follow breaking their levels according to where EU wants to go.

Looking back through the EU chart, one could have sold every 4h pullback and still be holding now, I know its easy to say in hindsight but I feel by looking across all the time frames one can get a good idea of where the price will end up.

Does anyone just trade EU and HOLD their positions?
A lot of people will trade just one pair as they become comfortable with the price action it shows. I know a bunch that trade only cable I lean towards OZ a good deal.

There is no right or wrong it still comes down to the one idea that we should trade what we SEE the best. If you see the levels better on the e/u and the price action makes sense and your stops get obeyed . Why would you trade anything else.

The cable is notorious for tripping stops then reversing but if you figure that into your plan it is jut part of the move you know. But having two large economies in one pair makes it a bit more volatile.

Oz on the other hand has been called the old mans pair as it is pretty docile. It also one of the cheaper pairs to trade as the margin required is less.

But if you like one pair over another no worries , In time you will start to see great levels on all pairs and take the best levels and not consider the pair as much.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #1,951
  • Jan 7, 2012 8:46am Jan 7, 2012 8:46am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
A lot of people will trade just one pair as they become comfortable with the price action it shows. I know a bunch that trade only cable I lean towards OZ a good deal.

There is no right or wrong it still comes down to the one idea that we should trade what we SEE the best. If you see the levels better on the e/u and the price action makes sense and your stops get obeyed . Why would you trade anything else.

The cable is notorious for tripping stops then reversing but if you figure that into your plan it is jut part of the move you know. But...
I know a lot of people that trade just one pair as well. I think there is something to be said for that...focus, precision, mastery...MONEY. As far as the EU leading, it does make up the largest portion of the dollar index so it will be affected the most by that. The boys that are driving the forex markets are the massive futures hedge fund managers that are playing DX, CL, ES, and GC, ZB...those are the real leaders pushing the rest of us around. Maybe some one can write a progam to take signals off those markets turning in unison....
  • #1,952
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:15am Jan 7, 2012 9:15am
Ultimatus,

That is a very good question. In the beginning of my forex trading I tried to trade every pair that had movement, but soon discovered for me that was a quick way to a zero accout balance. Fast forward to the present & trading Supply & Demand as well as prior to S&D my focus is on EUR/USD, but from time to time the EUR/CHF gets my attention as it has given me some really nice trades using Supply & Demand. To answer your question the EUR/USD is my main focus.

I am a short term trader & staying focused on one pair works best for me.
One pair, one focus & that being collecting the pips from that pair.

__________________________________
  • #1,953
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:36am Jan 7, 2012 9:36am
Hey guys, I have gone from 1 pair to 30 pairs and everything in between so far in my career as a trader!

At the moment, my focus is primarly EU, then I look at Oil, Gold and S&P. I feel these 4 instruments are a good mix and while some correlation exists, different setups happen independently quite often.

I also have another mt4 platform set up where I watch AU, UCad, UChf, UJ, Dax and Silver.

I'm on the fence as to whether I need to watch any currency other than EU. It seems that if a setup appears on one of the other pairs, I have to make sure EU is also near a setup otherwise it won't hold, does anyone else find this? Once every so often though, usually caused by news, one of the pairs will be out of sync with the market sentiment and can represent an opportunity.

Now I nearly always use limit orders, I find I can watch a lot more instruments as all my analysis is done in advance, its not really a problem, however I'm still unsure if I really need to watch all those pairs. Commodities and indicies are fine as they are not as correlated, but currencies I'm not sure.
  • #1,954
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:46am Jan 7, 2012 9:46am
Hi Ken great thread, I have seen the Sam seiden stuff in the past and it makes sense.
I work full time so can only really trade 4h and daily but will give it a go next week. Can I ask are you a full time trader? Because you trade the lower tf I guess you are.
One question I have is when you have multiple levels marked and price is approaching them, how can you know if price will turn or bust through to the next level? Do you trade presuming it will hold and if it breaks just take the
Hit and look at the next level for a reaction?

Thanks for your time.
  • #1,955
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:56am Jan 7, 2012 9:56am
Quoting bez3000
Hi Ken great thread, I have seen the Sam seiden stuff in the past and it makes sense.
I work full time so can only really trade 4h and daily but will give it a go next week. Can I ask are you a full time trader? Because you trade the lower tf I guess you are.
One question I have is when you have multiple levels marked and price is approaching them, how can you know if price will turn or bust through to the next level? Do you trade presuming it will hold and if it breaks just take the
Hit and look at the next level for a reaction?

Thanks for your...
If you choose a level you expect it to hold if not why did you pick it ?

I do want them to turn of course but they don't always . But if it is even a decent level it will almost always give you a chance to get out. A good level will normally move away from the level in a hurry and not come back to it. This is when we really want to hold the trades.

if you use the odds enhancers you will be able to find quality levels better. if your going to use PO's mainly it is very important to grade your levels .

I right now am Not a full time trade I was for 2 years , but due to personal issues had to return to work. I am hoping to be back full time first half of this year we will see. i trade when i have time and am not to tired . I find I can take a trade almost any time of day as long as I understand the price action revolving around Supply and Demand levels.

I am still looking to do more PO trading myself. it would be a good way to trade allowing us more free time and more than likely more profits.

Trade well Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #1,956
  • Jan 7, 2012 10:00am Jan 7, 2012 10:00am
Thanks for the quick reply Ken, I will keep up with this thread and start looking for levels on the longer tf from Monday.

Thanks again.
Quoting Kenneth Lee
If you choose a level you expect it to hold if not why did you pick it ?

I do want them to turn of course but they don't always . But if it is even a decent level it will almost always give you a chance to get out. A good level will normally move away from the level in a hurry and not come back to it. This is when we really want to hold the trades.

if you use the odds enhancers you will be able to find quality levels better. if your going to use PO's mainly it is very important to grade your levels .

I right now am Not a full time...
  • #1,957
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:31pm Jan 7, 2012 1:31pm
Hey Everyone! Just joined the forum after finding Kenneths great PDF. Ive been trying to get my head around Sam's methods for a few months now--watching videos, searching for whatever I could find. Im so glad I found this great resource by Kenneth and this great thread. Look forward to reading thru all of the thread and following along and eventually contributing. Hope evryone has a great day.---CC
  • #1,958
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:47pm Jan 7, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting alter
It has nothing to do with the trend , it was NFP what stopped u out.

Good point


TSD
  • #1,959
  • Jan 7, 2012 4:05pm Jan 7, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting acetrader
TraderinSD,

I have had that to happen to me as well & it seems almost every counter trend trade I try goes sour on me. You have to enter at just the right level to be successful & I have on a few, but for the most part they turn on me back in the direction of the trend, so I have decided to stay with the trend & reload in the direction of the trend when price retraces.

Starting on January fourth I have been short starting with one lot & have added one more lot & still short at this time. The second lot was added on the fifth of January & that...

I understand what you mean. Very good points. I would agree that trading with the trend would seem to up the odds in your favor but again, this is not a trend trading method to be sure...

Interesting quandary. Maybe KL can shed some light in this area.

Thanks for your input AceTrader

TSD
  • #1,960
  • Jan 8, 2012 6:22am Jan 8, 2012 6:22am
Since I began learning to trade S&D Zones I have been marking the zones myself & that is working find, but just started pondering if anyone is using an indicator of some type to auto plot these zones. At this time I am free of indicators, but this type of indicator is just not the same as what I call a standard indicator such as RSI, MACD, Stoch or any of the others. I do not want to start clogging this thread with indicators, but just looking for views & suggesstions.

Thanks for any replys.

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