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Red Lion on the hunt

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 7, 2012 3:10am Jan 7, 2012 3:10am
ever since joining FF and starting this trading business, a year ago. I have come a long way, as it stands today 65/35 win loss ratio, with 5% a month ROI on average.

This may sound impressive but i believe there is more room for improvement, it is my opinion that even discretionary traders have a system. Whether they can put it into words or not, in this journal i will test out two potentially lucrative methods that encompass money management, and a more methodical, strategic, and defined methods of trading.

i will start out with 1,000 USD, obviously if I blow this account then this will mean failure, and if i CONSISTENTLY, profit from this account, then that would be success.

now........I obviously need to be very factual and objective, trades may or may not be posted live, However to keep objectivity and facts i will provide a weekly blotter, so you can check the trades taken against the transaction record as a check and balance to any B/S i might try to pull.

criticism is welcome, reviews and inputs are welcome as well. The first method that will be tested is to treat each trading day strategically and choose the best possible entrances to catch the daily capacity.

this will be an arduous process, and i attempt to be as professional as i can be, this journal's purpose is mostly for peer review and self growth.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #2
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:21am Jan 7, 2012 3:21am
Quoting the redlion
ever since joining FF and starting this trading business, a year ago. I have come a long way, as it stands today 65/35 win loss ratio, with 5% a month ROI on average.

This may sound impressive but i believe there is more room for improvement, it is my opinion that even discretionary traders have a system. Whether they can put it into words or not, in this journal i will test out two potentially lucrative methods that encompass money management, and a more methodical, strategic, and defined methods of trading.

i will start out with 1,000 USD,...
I am following
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #3
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:33am Jan 7, 2012 3:33am
should i start by a detailed description of the method being tested?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #4
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:40am Jan 7, 2012 3:40am
As you wish.

If you do it for yourself you will do it also for us.
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #5
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:49am Jan 7, 2012 3:49am
here are some statistics collected over 2,856 trading days

99.3% of the time either above or below open
>61 pip fall from open, odds are will close below open
>61 pip rise from open odds are will close above open
breaking prev low 65% of the time will close below open
64.84% when price fails to break previous high closes below open

the rebuttal to this is that the market changes, so to ensure that we are not trading on old information, monthly statistics of these events will be run, to ensure we are not trading a completely different market.

here is a statistical range histogram

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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as you can tell the average from average high from open is 61 and average low is 61, this is the basis for our money management strategy

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: money management plan.jpg Size: 37 KB


as an answer to this conundrum
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: riskreward.png Size: 20 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #6
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:53am Jan 7, 2012 3:53am
these illustrations are provided for you to understand what my lines in the charts i post mean.

to me, the most important thing is GENERAL DIRECTION.
and volatility= ranges

when analyzing the market i want to know how everything fits in relationship to the big picture, i need to know how my five minute chart looks viz a viz the bigger movement.

here are some examples

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AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #7
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:55am Jan 7, 2012 3:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyhourly chart.jpg Size: 148 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: five minute.jpg Size: 182 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #8
  • Jan 7, 2012 4:00am Jan 7, 2012 4:00am
if it doesn't make sense let me know, i will be opened to questions. My premise is that if you are going to review the method and criticize it you need to understand it.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #9
  • Jan 7, 2012 4:01am Jan 7, 2012 4:01am
Quoting the redlion
ever since joining FF and starting this trading business, a year ago. I have come a long way, as it stands today 65/35 win loss ratio, with 5% a month ROI on average.

This may sound impressive but i believe there is more room for improvement, it is my opinion that even discretionary traders have a system. Whether they can put it into words or not, in this journal i will test out two potentially lucrative methods that encompass money management, and a more methodical, strategic, and defined methods of trading.

i will start out with 1,000 USD,...
All the best, and im here for you red
will be watching and learning
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10
  • Jan 7, 2012 4:51am Jan 7, 2012 4:51am
Quoting the redlion
ever since joining FF and starting this trading business, a year ago. I have come a long way, as it stands today 65/35 win loss ratio, with 5% a month ROI on average.

This may sound impressive but i believe there is more room for improvement, it is my opinion that even discretionary traders have a system. Whether they can put it into words or not, in this journal i will test out two potentially lucrative methods that encompass money management, and a more methodical, strategic, and defined methods of trading.

i will start out with 1,000 USD,...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11
  • Jan 7, 2012 5:44am Jan 7, 2012 5:44am
Quoting the redlion
Attachment

Attachment

looks interesting....but....chart seem like to tell us the past short n long position signal.....can u provide more detail about the next movement of the price ??? yes....i understand base on the line that u draw (maybe fibonanci) but as we know market is unexpected n maybe eu leader soon have a super solution for euro and that tend to strenghten the euro("maybe" but now seem not have yet) ++ jun azumi (japan fin min) just concern about euro weaken and this should take precaution on the market..then the euro maybe can surge up again...... i hope u can add something about fundamental event in ur chart....just like event that effect the movement of euro and relate it with ur technical espect ...for example "after nfp euro break lower" then all speculate it will move lower till around 1.2650 and lower.....but this is due technical expect.....we not know how fundamental for euro soon....

heheh..just my idea to make up ur chart analysis is more powerful n complete set...hehehe...

hope we can share idea again.....nice to see ur chart buddy
Bismillah
  • #12
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:01am Jan 7, 2012 6:01am
Quoting bumapatria
first he doesnt use fibonacci, second

just let him do his thing... none of us shoudl post analyssi here but red, i think its best to showcase his work for everyoen to learn. and as for his TA u aint seen nothing yet.

leave red to do the work i am awaiting for this for quite some time ever since i knew him.

heheh..ok..just my opinion...ok lets we appreciate her works....and see his interesting works soon
Bismillah
  • #13
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:06am Jan 7, 2012 6:06am
This is going to be great. Thanks lion.
  • #14
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:13am Jan 7, 2012 6:13am
Quoting krunfx
heheh..ok..just my opinion...ok lets we appreciate her works....and see his interesting works soon
its not that i dont like you or anything (LOL) its jsut that i try to talk to him about his methods and he does explain but theres just something missing and im a curious butthead thats why i really want to know and make this all great experience for all of us

no harm meant krun




Now red 's turn to talk
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:43am Jan 7, 2012 6:43am
anything i say regarding movement of the euro for next week is nothing but expectations.

looking at the decisive way investors ignored the positive NFP data on Friday, the lack of intention to go up is evident, however it depends really on how price moves on sunday (Monday for Asian markets).

at the end of the day, i am no psychic and cannot really predict but will try to reduce my risk as much as i can. losses are expected, its the way they are handled that counts.


this month we have the FED announcing borrowing costs in jan 25 which i would not expect them to go up anytime soon.

and the possible rate cut by the ECB, which will probably hurt the euro, however my guess is as good as anyone's that is exactly why i think the reduction of risk exposure is key.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #16
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:04am Jan 7, 2012 7:04am
Quoting the redlion
anything i say regarding movement of the euro for next week is nothing but expectations.

looking at the decisive way investors ignored the positive NFP data on Friday, the lack of intention to go up is evident, however it depends really on how price moves on sunday (Monday for Asian markets).

at the end of the day, i am no psychic and cannot really predict but will try to reduce my risk as much as i can. losses are expected, its the way they are handled that counts.


this month we have the FED announcing borrowing costs in jan 25 which...
Hehe,u are right

1.must wait maket to open to speculate next movement,even we taget eur down at leasj 1.2650
2. I think yes fed to hold even jobless rate down but they probably wait till march or aprl amid europe concern
3.ecb also have potential to cut rate at least .25..some speculate they can cut to .75 if crisis worsen

just my view
Bismillah
  • #17
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:13am Jan 7, 2012 7:13am
Just saying hi...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #18
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:06am Jan 7, 2012 9:06am
Those charts/stats look like a lot of home work and your approach is uncommonaly rational AND your growth claims seem realistic..

I'm curious

Thanks for taking the time to put this together in a thread for others to follow.
  • #19
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:55am Jan 7, 2012 11:55am
I'll certainly be following this thread Red.

I know you're looking for some reviews and opinions on everything. So i'll give my two cents as I see it..

I have nothing to comment on MM because to me its sound and extremely well thought up!

However I have some advice, or however you may take it, about your system..
As you say
"to me, the most important thing is GENERAL DIRECTION."

However I do not see you using moving averages?
To me these give the best indication of general direction. I devised a system using sma's and ema's.. Nothing statistical to offer you really bar a 90% win rate with proper s/r analysis done.. I use this method for currencies but I only trade M5 and M15.. What I can't seem to understand about your method is why you use M5 and H1..
For me I use M5 and M15 confirmation to take the trade..

With commodities its a little different, I use M30 only, I wait for a close above or below of the 50sma or 200sma and trade accordingly..
I find that a close above or below these give a change in direction for quite a good trade.. I only had two losers last week both on crude, I guess the volatility got the better of it..

If you'd like to learn more about incorporating them into your method I'd be happy to chat with you through PM, if so email if not its cool
  • #20
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:34pm Jan 7, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting RodMca
I'll certainly be following this thread Red.

I know you're looking for some reviews and opinions on everything. So i'll give my two cents as I see it..

I have nothing to comment on MM because to me its sound and extremely well thought up!

However I have some advice, or however you may take it, about your system..
As you say
"to me, the most important thing is GENERAL DIRECTION."

However I do not see you using moving averages?
To me these give the best indication of general direction. I devised a system using sma's and ema's.. Nothing statistical...

perhaps his hourly is his "direction" for bigger view of market and its the median of time frames i think.. coz like daily is too big, maybe 4h is too big too. m5 is for timing maybe for what he sees on 5min?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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