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  • #141
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:39pm Jan 6, 2012 1:39pm
Thanks ES...I've loaded them in the experts no problem...in the 'inputs' it has 1000...is that a pip count...for example if I had a 10000 account and I wanted to close it out at 3%...what would my inputs be?...( you'll have to excuse my total ignorance when it comes to EA's )

Appreciate your help

T
  • #142
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:56pm Jan 6, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting ES Trader
Brijon/Chips. Whoever you are, does not matter. you are a Genius who is willing to share your knowledge with others inspite of being harassed by others. Thanks.
I have been trading this syStem little bit differently. So far it has been a pip machine.

This is how I trade:
I open 10 pairs as mentioned in the first post.
Then click on profit/loss column once. Wait for a while until all the profit pairs( SELL or BUys) settles to the bottom.
"
Then comes various ways of "skinning this cat"
If you dont do anything the whole "indicator" goes into...
Just a quick question ES...when you say the TOP 5 pairs in a loss do you mean the whole basket of buys or sells..or could it be a mix of the top 5 moving pairs , both buys and sells?.
(sorry for being a pain in the butt )

T
  • #143
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:04pm Jan 6, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting ES Trader
Next method of trading is, look for the TOP 5 pairs that is in a loss and trade them opposite( if it is a buy pair, sell them and vice versa.

Then most often these pairs as they move down goes into profit.
This is because, even if pairs continue going into trend, most often they retest where they started the trend.

Hope I did not confuse every one too much.
Thanks again Chips.
KEEP IT UP WITH YOUR gOOD WORK
This has been mentioned before about taking trades in the top pairs, but why all 5?

I thought it was about identifying the strongest moving pairs whether winning or losing, and I'm sure there was advice to trade the bottom 2 only, so why not the top 2 only, that gives 4 trades.

Do you also take the bottom 5 trades> And if not, what is your rational to think top losing pairs are stronger than 5 winning pairs?

Can you make screen shot next time you have setup and ready to trade?

Thanks, have a good weekend.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #144
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:29pm Jan 6, 2012 2:29pm
You do not trade basket but only USD / JPY...
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  • #145
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:46pm Jan 6, 2012 2:46pm
Why do we concern ourselves about taking more trades. The bottom currency is the best trade. IF your broker allows same pair hedge trade the top one too.

However, Do not risk more than you are willing to loose. Otherwise dont trade more than what your account can handle.

Not because the indicator says print money as Brijon says..you should do it and ignore the cost (DD) of doing it.

Be patient take your time it all adds up.

Practice and eventaully we learn other techniques.. for controlling DD
  • #146
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:50pm Jan 6, 2012 2:50pm
Currently USD has been strong and EURUSD has a downward trend. Buying EURUSD initally would not be the right way to go becuase it will end up right at the top anyways. Are we supposed to adjust the buys and sells list each day. what is the criteria to adjust the buy and sell list ?
  • #147
  • Edited 3:34pm Jan 6, 2012 3:06pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting rvenky
Currently USD has been strong and EURUSD has a downward trend. Buying EURUSD initally would not be the right way to go becuase it will end up right at the top anyways. Are we supposed to adjust the buys and sells list each day. what is the criteria to adjust the buy and sell list ?
you are correct, so the indi should show eurusd at the top position 1, 2,3
and stable that would indicate a sell, if your broker allows same pair hedging.

what is the criteria to adjust the buy and sell list?

Acutally there is no criteria for adjusting..Pitbull indi Automatically Sync the market actions for you according to profit column values

There is no right or wrong way to trade you have to find your own.
Managing or controlling the DD is your KEY, lets all THINK about that

but focus on the bottom pair for profit taking for now..and explore the other methods..
  • #148
  • Jan 6, 2012 3:42pm Jan 6, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting chips

There is no right or wrong way to trade you have to find your own.
Managing or controlling the DD is your KEY, lets all THINK about that
Obviously the best way to control draw down is to not enter a stupid trade that will obviously head the wrong direction right off the bat.
e/u now for example...
  • #149
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:02pm Jan 6, 2012 4:02pm
Quoting punchingbag
I could be wrong but my understanding is that if your entire hedge (all 10 currencies) are in profit or maybe at 2:1 profit/loss you can close the entire basket of trades for an overall profit in equity. You then would just restart your hedge and watch what currencies go into the bottom slot all over again.

I started a hedge yesterday and these were the results. Not great and getting used to it but the drawdown was kept under 5%.
Thanks a lot for the clarification
  • #150
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:09pm Jan 6, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting oconnor365
Slightly off topic...is there a script that will close all trades at a certain % when the trades hit tp or stop loss ?..I think I've seen one somewhere..
Would appreciate any help

T
This is a script that I used to close my basket out three different times today. I was "scalping" the basket.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ClloseAll_AllSymbols.mq4   2 KB | 612 downloads
  • #151
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:46pm Jan 6, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting redhouse
Obviously the best way to control draw down is to not enter a stupid trade that will obviously head the wrong direction right off the bat.
e/u now for example...
Yes you are correct too , that y the safest and basic thing to do is the play the currency in Highest profit.

STOP Trading is another Technique to control the DD.
When close to Max limit of the account.
  • #152
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:30pm Jan 6, 2012 6:30pm
So just to get this straight, situation 1:

1/ open basket positions
2/ wait for pairs to settle
3/ enter most profitable position with 0.04 lotsize in initial direction and close when in profit
4/ repeat this until you're a millionaire

I get this. No biggy. However, at some point the "trend" of the initial profitable position will turn. If you're lucky you will have taken profit several times, but it's even possible that your newly opened 0.04 position will turn against you.

Anyway, this way, you'll end up with a position of 0.04 that's going against you much faster than the other hedged positions (the 9 other currencies). In other words the hedge will not be balanced against your 0.04 position. The big position is dragging the basket deeper into drawdown. How do you handle this kind of situation?

_____________

Situation 2:

I guess the above problem is the same problem as "don't close the position, hedge it with a position in the opposite direction". That's great. Indeed no loss, I have now successfully locked my positions in a static loss... but that doesn't mean the loss will magically disappear; am I wrong? How to "solve" the problem; how to get rid of the static loss? You can't add positions to it, because that only increases the problem. Or are we trying to average down here?

_____________

Situation 3:

To simplify, I will demonstrate with a basket of only two currencies:

A-opened short, going into loss
B-opened long, going into profit

You take profit of B and open a new position of B, for the sake of simplicity with the same lotsize. Do that 4 times. You'll have taken profit 4 times, but the A trade will have remained open all the time and it has a value of approx. -4 times B. This will actually also be the basket drawdown. On the other side you have the freshly opened B trade, but then the market decides to turn on you. To sum it up: A trade in deep loss + market turns on new B position, thus also about to develop loss, while A trade will start turning positive. Problem is that the net value of the basket will remain a loss of -4B.

Extra problem? As said before: trade A's value is -4B, new trade B is just $ 0 or less. So the market will have to move a great deal to put A into profit. In the meanwhile, trade B steadily will develop a loss too. At some point the pairs cross so that's a signal that the A trade is becoming the strongest pair so it has to be traded in this direction. Problem is your net basket value is still a -4B and the market has already moved so much (to trigger the position switch) that the market move may be exhausted already! So you might just enter an order in the wrong direction AGAIN, only adding negativity to your basket that's spiraling down into meltdown-mode.

Sounds like any system really...

I don't know if I'm pessimistic but I'm really fascinated by this method and the way people use it to make a lot of profit: I don't understand why nobody has had this problem? I don't want to bash the system or anything, I only want to understand where the problem is in my thinking: my brains tell me that this system mathematically has no edge (or maybe I don't understand the edge?). I truly would like to believe this system has potential, but I'm quite down to earth and that means I'll need good explanations before I jump into this adventure.
  • #153
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:12pm Jan 6, 2012 9:12pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting ExForX
So just to get this straight, situation 1:
Sounds like any system really...

I don't know if I'm pessimistic but I'm really fascinated by this method and the way people use it to make a lot of profit: I don't understand why nobody has had this problem? I don't want to bash the system or anything, I only want to understand where the problem is in my thinking: my brains tell me that this system mathematically has no edge (or maybe I don't understand the edge?). I truly would like to believe this system has potential, but I'm quite down to earth...
you are correct - these are potential problems, you'll notice that some have a max DD on any pair of -200 to resolve the issues. but the only way for you to truely see it is to demo it and try it - i'd also suggest you leave a long term basket open and study it to understand max deviations etc.

the edge with this system is in seeing the market place and not just the single pair.

this chart is generated using all the pitbull pairs so you can see what a week looks like, i've highlited the daily open points as commonly used by by many (not all) and you can see the action of the market - monday, tuesday and wednesdays where easy pickings as the market pretty much only went one way during our working day.

but lets take a closer look at friday - a day which more represents the up down yo-yo you are talking about

the bottom indi represents the pip value of the longs and shorts - notice the crossing long to short - yo-yo and then the finish off the week short, now whilst this looks like multiple entries and potential DD - you notice i've added a few blue lines at 50 pips and 150pips

so 5 pairs long are going in and out of profit - but not over or under the +50/-50 point that approx 10pips per pair - so we have no real strength to the trade therefore - no trades yet

then it settle short and we make more money.

yes there are loses, but you have to demo this to really appreciate it and understand the nature of it - then and only then will you see how it truely works

of 5 days last week we had 3 easy days to trade and 2 that required both patience and control to get the right trade

as an additional thought - if you had open a full basket long on 3rd it went long for 1000pips - surely we can all get some of that.


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  • #154
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:17pm Jan 6, 2012 9:17pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting bluesteele
100 % profitable...100 % accuracy !

WOW.. this is truly amazing ! ! !

I am going to really give this a go next week. I think Brijon is on something.

God Bless
Bluesteele
Hi Bluesteele

I think we all know this is not true - 100% easy - i wish

i hope that you do give this an honest go next week and take the time to study, from what i see you have the abbilty to rip ideas apart, which to me means you also have the ability to see the potential.

if you have bigger ideas than the pitbull and like to push boundaries - i'd suggest you read the original basket threads by Trader101, it may be more your thing.
  • #155
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:23pm Jan 6, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting ExForX
So just to get this straight, situation 1:

1/ open basket positions
2/ wait for pairs to settle
3/ enter most profitable position with 0.04 lotsize in initial direction and close when in profit
4/ repeat this until you're a millionaire

I get this. No biggy. However, at some point the "trend" of the initial profitable position will turn. If you're lucky you will have taken profit several times, but it's even possible that your newly opened 0.04 position will turn against you.

Anyway, this way, you'll end up with a position of 0.04 that's going...
Hey ExForX
Instead of what if-ing your cranium storage unit why don't you put 8 -10 pairs on a demo account and observe. In the time it took to compose your 1,2,3 - A,B,C post you could have had that part done. Can't wait to hear about your discoveries on your "adventure".
  • #156
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:41pm Jan 6, 2012 9:41pm
Quoting des_b
Can I first thank Chips/Courtneywild/PiptheRipper and others for their positive contributions to what I hope will be a worthwhile exercise. Some people will heckle this forum but that I'm afraid is to be expected, the forex market by it's nature breeds frustration. I too tried to follow Brian Johnston's method and watched many of his videos several times. I think I have a rough appreciation of his methods but need to practice them a lot more to ensure success. I read from an earlier entry that Graeme's Millipede building (PIPEasy) was mentioned...

Thanks for your last contribution, this is a worthwhile exercise as you pointed and I wish to thank those who contributed positively to this thread except for the hecklers out there, they are really frustrated and they should keep their frustration out of this thread. This is new year and we are all here to share ideas that can improve our trading. More greese to your elbow CHIP, we will continue to appreciate your contributions and dont pay attention to all these dis-tractors out there.

THANKS
  • #157
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:34pm Jan 6, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting ExForX
Sounds like any system really...

I don't know if I'm pessimistic but I'm really fascinated by this method and the way people use it to make a lot of profit: I don't understand why nobody has had this problem? I don't want to bash the system or anything, I only want to understand where the problem is in my thinking: my brains tell me that this system mathematically has no edge (or maybe I don't understand the edge?). I truly would like to believe this system has potential, but I'm quite down to earth and that means I'll need good explanations...
I concur with your sentiments. I was confused and I kept reading to figure out what the technique is and then I hear the drumroll and nothing comes out. Taking small profits with large stops is definitely not new, but the spin is to go for the pair that is moving the fastest in the hopes that if you pick the strongest pair then most likely it will trend for the entire day.

I think it has merit in the sense of:

1. Pick the strongest trending pair.

2. Stick with the trend or direction for the day.

3. Take Profits often.

I think at the end of the day though, the 'hedging' should be left alone and take your losses as I have a feeling that many people trying this system have never been in a 'hedged' situation.

Remember, 2011 has been the strongest breakout and trending year (smoothest trends, not longest) in the last 10 years and these conditions could easily change...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #158
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:37pm Jan 6, 2012 11:37pm
Quoting bluesteele
100 % profitable...100 % accuracy !

WOW.. this is truly amazing ! ! !

I am going to really give this a go next week. I think Brijon is on something.

God Bless
Bluesteele
I think BlueSteele has a point. He challenges your thinking and that is what every system needs because all too often you will spend 2-4-10 months on a system and when market dynamics change, voila, you give up because you didn't like the DD.

He is doing it through sarcasm and negative energy, but at the end of the day, you want people like this to challenge you. Otherwise you end up hearing go-go-go and you rush out to jump out of the plane and see everyone else stop at the door as you fall to the earth with your LIVE account.

Just be safe, be objective and truthful with yourself.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #159
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:02am Jan 7, 2012 12:02am
The actual methodology doesnt hold water in this thread.

-"Your indi basket if left untouch will give profit" : Really if that was true all I would have to do is let an equity ea run and collect my profit when volitility picks up. Not sure about that. I can find those ea's all over the place. No problem. However, There is always a difference of some pretty significant spread in the basket unless your on some tight spreads so that line is bull crap.
-Also, profit or loss of a currency is a trend indicator. That is, A price now or a price 15 minutes from now is either up or down. So, you pick a currency with the biggest pip move of the reviewed currencies move after an hour and assume its stable - Do we look at the currency and go oh, it slowed down now?
-Fact is, when you buy or sell at .04, you have about a 50-50 game of chicken making a win. Are you now at the top or is the trend going to continue..WHo the heck knows, the market could go sideways and then up and then down. Believe me , 1000 pip stop loss is not big enough in this market. Is a 200 pip stop loss gonna make that up your closes of little bits of profit...not sure.

My point/thoughts are that if you add more buys or more sells at some point your gonna need a lot of trades of .01 to get your behind out of a .04 hole added to one side or the other.
Am I missing something? I mean, if this is 100% there should be no negotiation or do it that way or this way to make the system run effeciently. As soon as you as a trader has to buy art to make trades work, you better know what your doing or your gonna lose your shorts. If your gonna promote a system that is giving people hope, you better know how to cover your draw down in detail to save your a ss . So far I have seen nothing but inspirational baloney. If I wanted a prayer, I would either say one or go to church. Forex doesn't take prisoners nor is a prayer going to save you.
  • #160
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:13am Jan 7, 2012 12:13am
This system looks very much like t101's. look at my spreadsheet
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