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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,001
  • Jan 3, 2012 6:45am Jan 3, 2012 6:45am
Quoting SunTrader
In no way can the two be compared.

Indexes to indexes or commodities to commodities.

A stock or an index can, theoretically, go to zero i.e. no longer trade.

The same cannot be said for a commodity.

Exception being if it replaced by another commodity such as whale oil being replaced by crude oil.

Does anyone believe something will replace Gold someday. Extremely doubtful.

There are many other reason why bubbles can not be compared, starting from a base of $1.
Suntrader: Sorry if what i attached was misleading...my intention was to provide a simplistic contrast of the timing and progression of a parabolic move....
  • #15,002
  • Jan 3, 2012 8:18am Jan 3, 2012 8:18am
Wow! this is a bull stampede. They would have ran me over. How far will they go?
Patience is magic
  • #15,003
  • Jan 3, 2012 8:43am Jan 3, 2012 8:43am
Quoting muntu ntu
Wow! this is a bull stampede. They would have ran me over. How far will they go?
This would be an excellent time for thoughts from a senior trader.

No expectations...

RSI turning, but part of me thinks this is a squeeze before a return to the downside given the bullish USD sentiment. (I think) gold bugs like myself still have a ways to go before the upward trend resumes.

Lot's of volume still, although somewhat less than mid December.

Wonder if a Ron Paul win in Iowa could boost gold - lol.

Cheers
  • #15,004
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:08am Jan 3, 2012 10:08am
dear all,

gold has made an evening star formation on H1.

and also you can view the resistance level on H4 graphics.

I shorted.

Edit: RSI & MACD confirm the price action on H1. Prices made new highs but RsI couldn't.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: evening star h1.jpg Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 resistance level.jpg Size: 198 KB
  • #15,005
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:14am Jan 3, 2012 10:14am
Risk on today. Market is waiting on FOMC in just under an hour. I was hoping US ISM would knock the market off risk but it just gave it a bit more confidence.

If I understand my fundamentals properly; if FED increase interest rates money will flow out of Gold into USD.
  • #15,006
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:29am Jan 3, 2012 10:29am
I'm short also!

This was a long run up, think correction is underway.

Opinions?
  • #15,007
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:45am Jan 3, 2012 10:45am
Yeah, if I see a 4H close pin bar after FOMC news (if bearish) I will short the f^ck out of gold and EURUSD.

My lines.

..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldlines.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #15,008
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:56am Jan 3, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Tyoon
If I understand my fundamentals properly; if FED increase interest rates money will flow out of Gold into USD.
Fed has already stated that rates will stay low until 2013.
  • #15,009
  • Jan 3, 2012 11:47am Jan 3, 2012 11:47am
Quoting SunTrader
I've asked traders this numerous times so I guess it will not garner a reply this time as well but why 200 MA and not 199 or 201 or some other number?

200 = 8.3 days so what is special about that?

You can probably tell I don't think much about MA's but if I did use them I would find a number that was equivalent to the timeframe I was trading.

If I traded intraday, say H1 chart, I would look at a numbesr like 24 or multiples - 48, 96, 192.

Just sayin'.
One of the reasons to have 200 (e)ma on your chart is because OTHER traders (and not just amateurs) use them, so they tend to get respected.

Although people experiment with all sorts of numbers, the round, 'magic' numbers of 50, 100, 150 and 200 are more likely to be used.

You could also use what is called a dtema, a daily time frame ema on different charts, such as 24 on a hourly chart or 288 on a 5 minute chart - these also get respected and give an idea of daily movement obviously.

Hope it helps.
  • #15,010
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:09pm Jan 3, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting SunTrader
In no way can the two be compared.

Indexes to indexes or commodities to commodities.

A stock or an index can, theoretically, go to zero i.e. no longer trade.

The same cannot be said for a commodity.

Exception being if it replaced by another commodity such as whale oil being replaced by crude oil.

Does anyone believe something will replace Gold someday. Extremely doubtful.

There are many other reason why bubbles can not be compared, starting from a base of $1.

Wise advise
  • #15,011
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:23pm Jan 3, 2012 2:23pm
$1600, Good price to Buy and Good price to sell, a pure 50 - 50 at the moment.

Thats why it is stuck now
  • #15,012
  • Edited 7:47pm Jan 3, 2012 2:42pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting lilpip
gold daily
bias is down from 1606.
1600-1606
1564
1522
Resistance at daily highs noted.
Lets see if she can stay above 1600 as it is the weekly pivot.
weekly
1696
1600
1504
tue. daily eyes open to 1577 response
1619
1577
1535
  • #15,013
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:45pm Jan 3, 2012 2:45pm
sun trader, what would be your target price for gold before you would say that the up trend has resumed?
  • #15,014
  • Jan 3, 2012 7:03pm Jan 3, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting Sreym33
sun trader, what would be your target price for gold before you would say that the up trend has resumed?
A clean break of 1644 using Comex data for GCH12 contract.

And flip side 1524 to downside means continuation fo bear move.

But this week and maybe next needs to shake out first.
  • #15,015
  • Jan 3, 2012 7:14pm Jan 3, 2012 7:14pm
Quoting ikdenk
One of the reasons to have 200 (e)ma on your chart is because OTHER traders .......

+ + +

You could also use what is called a dtema, a daily time frame ema on different charts, such as 24 on a hourly chart or .....
I'm different I guess. Because other traders (big or small) use something is not good enough for me. Pick a spot on any chart on any timeframe and something plotted will intersect price at a reversal point. Be it fibs, MA's, TL's, Murray Math, etc etc.

But the thing about long MA's is how much market time is wasted before price reaches it. And as far as watching for turns to time trades - good luck.

+ + +

You mean kind of like I said in this paragragh:

"If I traded intraday, say H1 chart, I would look at a numbers like 24 or multiples - 48, 96, 192."
  • #15,016
  • Jan 3, 2012 8:14pm Jan 3, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting SunTrader
I'm different I guess. Because other traders (big or small) use something is not good enough for me. Pick a spot on any chart on any timeframe and something plotted will intersect price at a reversal point. Be it fibs, MA's, TL's, Murray Math, etc etc.

But the thing about long MA's is how much market time is wasted before price reaches it. And as far as watching for turns to time trades - good luck.

+ + +

You mean kind of like I said in this paragragh:

"If I traded intraday, say H1 chart, I would look at a numbers like 24 or multiples -...
Different is good. I agree too many lines on the chart only leads to confusion. I don't use ma's to trade off but it is still good to have at least the major ones on your trading chart, they DO act as a hurdle for prices to reach your target rather than a brick wall.

And, of course, it is not price reaching the ma, but rather the other way around, where the ma's catch up with the price, they are not called lagging indicators for nothing.

+ + +

Kind of like you said, but then only the 24 ema would be the dtema.
  • #15,017
  • Edited 8:37pm Jan 3, 2012 8:23pm | Edited 8:37pm
From my angle, just as one evaluates the 5,15,30 min.,1hr.,4hr, and daily for direction, one should consider the yearly and quarterly since they are the major and minor trend.
As we come into the new year I have to consider the new yearly time frame along with the quarterly.
Looking at the single yearly pivot bias is bears from 1597 down and bulls from 1597 up.
Looking at the quarterly pivot bias is down from 1632 so eyes open to the areas response.
A break above 1632 following with a daily or a weekly confirmation confirms bulls for yearly trend.
A bounce south of 1632 and down through 1597 and quarterly trend is to the south.
quarterly
1886
1632
1378
The 3 year pivot is 1428
Silver quarterly
46.35
34.49
22.63
Jan. monthly
34.49-57
29.82
25.07
  • #15,018
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:06pm Jan 3, 2012 9:06pm
Quote
Looking at the single yearly pivot bias is bears from 1597 down and bulls from 1597 up.

Good info
  • #15,019
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:52pm Jan 3, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting ikdenk
..... , they are not called lagging indicators for nothing.
Well we can completely agree on that part. Many others would disagree strongly though.

But hurdles only to those who believe.

For every time it held price back, another time it doesn't. Same as about most studies 50-50.
  • #15,020
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:00pm Jan 3, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting jaimini
I still believe gold will test 1530 level demand.
I have not touched my account for last 10 days.
probably start in Jan.
the main lesson I believe and learned is.
keeping the fact that 95% in this business loose their equity
If you are not making loss then you are making indirect profit
I knew 1530 will be hit and the rise but i couldn't enter
now waiting for weekly close above 1600.
then i think we are back in game to 2000

not trading for almost a month now.
concentrating on my real job.
planning to move to US in next 2 years.
lets c
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