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Fundamental vs Technical

  • #41
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:05pm Jan 2, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting Trader000
your wrong my friend, before managing a big hedge fund ... Soros already made a lot of money . And he was starting career like a normal citizen , no inherit a fortune at all .
Nowhere did I say that Soros inherited his money. All I said was that he likely had more to start with (however he got his money) than most retail traders.
  • #42
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:44pm Jan 2, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting Superslam
While that may be true, Soros' account was likely large enough to sustain a move of a few hundred pips in the wrong direction until his bearish call on GBP was confirmed. Most traders can't afford that, which is why it's important to use technicals as a matter of timing, even if you're pretty big on fundamentals. I called this recent dollar rally, but was a bit premature in that call, so I had several USD longs get stopped out before subsequent long entries paid off.
Firstly, Happy New Year.

Secondly, for what it's worth, I think most traders just go ranting about Soros without really comprehending his breakthrough.

1. Soros *was never fundamentally inclined.
2. Neither *was he a chartist/technician.
3. He didn't do 'insider trading/info.
4. He was simply smart using psychological analysis.

All Soros did to broke the BOE was to do his homework, gathered information on the buying capacity of the BOE, waited for the right moment and striked. He didn't make a bearish call, he made bears. For instance, if the BOE had a buying capacity of 1 billion pounds, and you borrowed money here and there and you're being capitalized to a tune of say 2 billion pounds, all u do is wait for prices to decelerate/range, then:

1. Sell 0.5 billion pounds
2. The BOE will intervene and buy 0.5 billion pounds to stabilize the pound
3. Tell everyone the pound will crash and sell another 0.5 billion
4. People will start panicking
5. The BOE will step in again with their last 0.5 billion capacity
6. Just before they're through with that, dump your remaining 1 billion pounds
7. Go back home and listen to the news. Your action should have created a shorting spree and even an unborn baby should be shorting the pounds.
8. Go back 2 days later and close out ur positions before the IMF could think of stepping in for the BOE.

In summary, if you're heavily capitalized, you don't need TA or FA, just play on the publics' psych. Like they say; "If you must place a bet, make sure you're holding the stakes." In Soros's case, he placed the bet against the BOE and was smart enough to hold the stakes.

Kindest regards,
Motion
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
  • #43
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:02pm Jan 2, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting Superslam

While that may be true, Soros' account was likely large enough to sustain a move of a few hundred pips in the wrong direction until his bearish call on GBP was confirmed. Most traders can't afford that, which is why it's important to use technicals as a matter of timing, even if you're pretty big on fundamentals. I called this recent dollar rally, but was a bit premature in that call, so I had several USD longs get stopped out before subsequent long entries paid off.
I agree, fundamentals to form a bias and technicals to try and pick significant levels. I was too early on the Eur/Usd decline as well but stayed with it, have you considered scaling into trades?
  • #44
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:07pm Jan 2, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting xtrader101

All my trades are based on technical. Understanding the fundamentals is like trying to make a forecast, which i believed is not feasible especially for retail traders.
Why do you think understanding fundamentals isn't feasible for retail traders, analysis is analysis whether you're a retail or an institutional trader.
  • #45
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:29pm Jan 2, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting smittens4212
My personal opinion is that unless you are trading ultra-long term, both the fundamental data itself and the reaction to fundamental data are too unpredictable. You can't know which fundamentals the market is concerned about this week or month, you can't tell how how people have positioned themselves prior to data release (if they have at all), and these days it's virtually impossible to know how they are going to react or what their reaction means after the dust has settled.
It depends on what you understand the term 'fundamentals' refers to. It's not just individual data releases, it's an overall picture of, for example, economical conditions globally and the impact on specific currencies in the medium term. There's also analysis available on the probable immediate kneejerk reaction the market is likely to have to individual data releases which may cause spikes in price.

Just like any other type of analysis it's all based on probability not certainty, which is where the whole concept of 'trading' comes in.

Quoting smittens4212
I can take virtually any piece of fundamental data from the last few years and find completely opposing market reactions to similar releases.
Data needs to be taken in the context of current conditions, it's not unusual to see different reactions to the same/similar data released previously in different market conditions, I would have thought that's a given.

Quoting smittens4212
The only difference is I think there's a shitton (that's a scientific term) more luck involved in hitting big returns trading fundamentals than there is in say, trading price action intraday.
'Big returns'? 'Luck'?
  • #46
  • Jan 3, 2012 12:30am Jan 3, 2012 12:30am
Hi Gang.. I'm new in FF but not a new trader

For me, fundamentals or technical analysis are both different creatures from different planets. There is nothing wrong either with fundamental trading or technical trading or BOTH!

I know traders use both to trade and some of them only use purely technical trading (*I'm just one of them).

Fundamentals trading is rely on news.. and you know.. news/media is CONTROL. Who is the owner of the media? And even on technical analysis.. the price is CONTROL as well Do you think it is because supply or demand?

As long as you can trade with consistent winnings, who cares? Go to forbes.. you see the richest man in the world.. but how about underground expert traders? I believe they don't want to be recognize as well

Be humble my friend
Blackhawkfx
  • #47
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:18am Jan 3, 2012 1:18am
In my opinion, Fundamental is suitable for long term traders ... but technical is suitable for short term traders. This doesn't mean that technical traders are short term traders.


Yes there are long term traders using technical analysis ( a hell lot of them )

Fundamental is suitable for pairs like gold, silver and oil ... but most traders are technical traders .....

Wise traders will combine both technical and fundamentals in their trading and make profits
I am the one and only profitable forex trader, but not the only one
  • #48
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:34am Jan 3, 2012 2:34am
Seriously?

  • #49
  • Jan 3, 2012 2:54am Jan 3, 2012 2:54am
just for the people who still believe that the corrupted rich guys and politicians who drill our brains either with techs or fundies are smart .

this is how they analyze :

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/01/the.../#.TwLBgfIrMr8
I SEE YOU !!
  • #50
  • Jan 3, 2012 3:09am Jan 3, 2012 3:09am
Quoting dbfusion
just for the people who still believe that the corrupted rich guys and politicians who drill our brains either with techs or fundies are smart .

this is how they analyze :

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/01/the.../#.TwLBgfIrMr8
Nicely done Mrs Hildebrand, but dammit you could have called me!
  • #51
  • Jan 3, 2012 7:37am Jan 3, 2012 7:37am
Quoting Trader000
I saw people trading a while in the forexfactory and i realize one thing : people rarely use fundamental in their analysis if i dont want to say there are many of you guys here never use fundamental , but mostly only technical analysis to decide to trade . So i make this thread for everyone to debate about fundamental vs technical

Who is the richest trader of all time? Soros right? and he talked about technical analysis is "utter waste of time" . And i believe he did not lie , he truly dont use technical analysis , everyone know he bet on the...

I think that it depends on what kind of a trader you are. If you are trading the 5m charts than obviously fundamental is useless for you and you need to have great TA skills. On the other hand, core traders that trade the daily/weekly/monthly chart have to pay attention for the FA. There is no magic in trading and there is not an absolute answer for you thoughts. I believe that successful trading is a combination of TA, guts feeling, experience and FA. It is something between art and science
  • #52
  • Jan 3, 2012 8:46am Jan 3, 2012 8:46am
Quoting dbfusion
just for the people who still believe that the corrupted rich guys and politicians who drill our brains either with techs or fundies are smart .

this is how they analyze :

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/01/the.../#.TwLBgfIrMr8
according to some people here,she should be considered a legendary trader with superior intellect. Just like Soros, the guy is a Genius haven't you heard.

isn't Buffet, executing trades for the government in a way, Propping up BOA, he helped with Goldman Sachs, made a lot of money REGARDLESS of his trading positions. The contract Guaranteed Buffet, big money with a special, preferred stock ,that is BILLIONS underwater
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #53
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:34am Jan 3, 2012 9:34am
Quoting the redlion
according to some people here,she should be considered a legendary trader with superior intellect. Just like Soros, the guy is a Genius haven't you heard.

isn't Buffet, executing trades for the government in a way, Propping up BOA, he helped with Goldman Sachs, made a lot of money REGARDLESS of his trading positions. The contract Guaranteed Buffet, big money with a special, preferred stock ,that is BILLIONS underwater
and in addition when they bring example of making 1 billion of one trade advocating fundies and they say he is genius , and when you counter that argument and mention he lost 2 billion in one trade equal to 10% of his total fund , they say losing is part of the game .

I don't like to argue with fixed minded people .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #54
  • Jan 3, 2012 9:40am Jan 3, 2012 9:40am
dbfusion
Quote
but i just like fibo only for that since it is leading indicator....reason.....??we can make a forecast for the next movement of PA....

I use fibs as well in a swing trading stategy. And even though this is predictive analysis, in my view it is purely technical. Perhaps in this regard I am getting ahead of the market as pipmutt suggested, but in swing and postion trading using fibos, I even ignore the news (fundamentals) that I might otherwise consider during intraday.

I don't have the resources or the desire to be an expert on global economic fundamentals. Just this morning, pudits are in disagreement over the fate of the ECB and the Euro for 2012. I could not be less interested.

All I know is my intraday trade plan (based on technicals) told me to get long EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. I read later about China PMI, etc. that created the rallies.

My goal is to keep as much of my opinion (and that of others) out of my trade plan as possible and that seems to be working! All the best to those that understand and use fundamentals - I'm just not that smart!
  • #55
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:31am Jan 3, 2012 10:31am
Quoting dcginc
dbfusion

I use fibs as well in a swing trading stategy. And even though this is predictive analysis, in my view it is purely technical. Perhaps in this regard I am getting ahead of the market as pipmutt suggested, but in swing and postion trading using fibos, I even ignore the news (fundamentals) that I might otherwise consider during intraday.

I don't have the resources or the desire to be an expert on global economic fundamentals. Just this morning, pudits are in disagreement over the fate of the ECB and the Euro for 2012. I could...

that wasn't my quote brother , you were replying to some one else
any how , I salute your stance .
I SEE YOU !!
  • #56
  • Jan 3, 2012 10:55am Jan 3, 2012 10:55am
dbfusion
Quote
that wasn't my quote brother , you were replying to some one else
any how , I salute your stance .

I apologize! Although I am a technical trader, the technical aspect of posting on this site escapes me at times!
  • #57
  • Jan 3, 2012 12:46pm Jan 3, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting dcginc
dbfusion

I use fibs as well in a swing trading stategy. And even though this is predictive analysis, in my view it is purely technical. Perhaps in this regard I am getting ahead of the market as pipmutt suggested
Something we share, I also use Fibs!!

But can they really be considered technical analysis or are they a natural occurrence, or even a self fulfilling prophesy?

I guess that another debate altogether.....
  • #58
  • Jan 3, 2012 12:58pm Jan 3, 2012 12:58pm
the drama in this thread is just so funny
  • #59
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:10pm Jan 3, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting dcginc
dbfusion

I use fibs as well in a swing trading stategy. And even though this is predictive analysis, in my view it is purely technical. Perhaps in this regard I am getting ahead of the market as pipmutt suggested, but in swing and postion trading using fibos, I even ignore the news (fundamentals) that I might otherwise consider during intraday.

I don't have the resources or the desire to be an expert on global economic fundamentals. Just this morning, pudits are in disagreement over the fate of the ECB and the Euro for 2012. I could...
With you all the way DC, there is just no need for trying to understand all that fundi crap, hats off to those that can trade it tho.

Long cable off every pullback today, what a day.
  • #60
  • Jan 3, 2012 1:47pm Jan 3, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting pipmutt
Data needs to be taken in the context of current conditions, it's not unusual to see different reactions to the same/similar data released previously in different market conditions, I would have thought that's a given.
Right, and I personally believe judging that context to be extraordinarily difficult and not worth the time. Again, you're trying to determine how, globally, a consortium of banks, funds, commercials, etc. are going to both forecast and react to fundamentals- and I am talking more to news releases and the weeks following them, what the pundits talk about. There's just way TMI to process and analyze to make it worthwhile, when imo all this information becomes utterly irrelevant when you focus on price.

I probably sound arrogant, but I really don't begrudge anyone for trading the way they want to trade, I simply think (as I assume almost everyone here also does) that my way of trading is best. Otherwise why would I be trading this way? If I thought fundamentals added something worthwhile, I'd consider them-- I don't, and no one here has convinced me otherwise. In other cases? People on these forums have changed my mind on issues, and that is why I am still here. Maybe I will change someone's mind too. That's why we're all kind of here, right?

Quoting Trader000
Because you cannot use FA to make money , does not mean other cannot, in trading like i said i only see 2 kind of people: make money or lose it . And when you saw other made it , you only blame yourself : he knows something that i dont know , that's it .
Of course! I can't use the stars and tides to make money either, but there are definitely traders who use that type of stuff in their analysis! I'm not convinced it's their analysis that's making them money, though, or as much as they could be, which is my position to FA as well.

Cheers to a great trading year!
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