diary of my descent to madness...

WARNING...DON’T READ IF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOPE...


Well, this is it, new year, new me baloney. It’s time. Time to get out the closet and be honest, share with you strangers how truly crap I am at this Forex.
And folks it’s a book, so switch off now if I’ve bored you already, otherwise... enjoy...one thing I can guarantee is you won’t learn anything.


Here’s my tale, I’m an ordinary middle-aged mum...
Discovered Forex in Sept 2007, when I was not middle-aged and looking for someway to earn a living that was compatible with family life.


Seemed ideal - so did a four week course - hooked by the get rich quick spreadsheet that accompanied the course, which offered more or less millionaire status within the year. Compounding for a mere hour and a half's work per day.

This I demo-ed for 10 months, I wasn't supposed to go live, till I could prove I could do it in demo, sound advice... It was disciplined based, as in mental discipline, but trade entry was discretionary, based on an ambiguous set-up, which I would eventually just see... Alas I wasn't ambiguous. I was thick and apparently blind....I couldn't get it.

I ended up feeling absolutely shit about myself and discovered that Forex magnified every single personality flaw I had...undisciplined, impatient, emotional. Your basic nightmare.


However, nigh on a year down the line, undeterred, and with no more clue about Forex than my basic 4 week course, I funded my first live account with $500. Scalping was my bag I decided, however my 2-10 pip gains and 20 pip stop loss ensured within months, I was a gibbering wreck with $9 in account.


Tho...as an aside...there is defo a god, initially, my saved and honed for grub stake was 5K (in the good old get rich quick days.) - And by some miracle, not design, I only used $500 to blow my first live account with.

Time to learn....

Next, I joined a teaching trading room for a monthly fee, great, this was fun, music, chat, mingling amid like minded eejits with $$$ signs in their eyes...And someone told me what to do, nearly.

All consuming, 8 hours a day, gone were the dreams of freedom and riches...It was a massive change, played out during the 2008 crash, 30 pip candles fleeing up/down every 15 mins. Big, big, stop losses, daily ranges the size of oaks, and I hadn't a clue...

The guru, flew the nest one fine day, untraceable, and end of trading room. Another $500 account toasted.


Forum stalker next, library of books, few $99 fly by night courses, account refunded, couple of hundred $'s this time, and success! Briefly. Grew the account tenfold. (thanks Islander & Medici)

I felt like Kate winslet on the prow of the titanic....Till one drastic non-farm payroll day, my fledgling confidence and months of gains were eradicated in hours...account blown again. Cue massive pillow weeping.


By now, even I, the bluntest nail in the toolbox, realised how little I knew and how dangerous this Fx was.

I needed rules, a mechanical based system...


So, to another course, a mere $1000, carefully chosen this time - had stars galore from the liars that reviewed it - it had a dazzling array of indicators...very few trade set-ups that correlated with them however...

And honest, it was so, so, out of my comfort zone, hours and hours, days and days of screen staring till all things lined up, and when they did, I either never noticed or was on some effing school run.
I never lost money at it tho (course fee aside) as I gave up while still demo-ing, indicator double dutched and Mt4 literate.


Now I'm a mixed bag, refunded my account again, with $200, it's lasted months and months seen a spectacular gain of $374, now down to $100, months of eensy-weensy gains, then my usual - a few spectacular PMT type days. Result – Life ruined again.


A tad older and a dream crushing job later, I'm still here...


My main thing is scalping, I've tried over and over to swing trade, only for every single trade to swing back down and take out my stop. I put in break-even stop, I get breakeven. I take half off and leave my stop, cue, stop hit.


Think it's my shit trend tracking radar or that bastard risk on, risk off mystery, which changes with the wind. One day the news is bad and euro goes up, one day the news is bad and euro goes down, whilst every pundit on forex factory explains it away a day later and a dollar shorter....

I know what I am not good at now, trend. Trend is not my fecking friend. I'm shit at it; I swim along marvellously till that runaway day I'm trying to counter trend trade. Loss after loss is racked up, till eventually I realise oh, bugger, trend day...So chasing market, I switch sides, usually at the very point it retraces...and another calamitous day occurs.


I'm also shit at pullbacks, enter on first pullback, sods law it's pulling back another twice and chopping my account to bits. And, don't enter on first pullback, price takes off like Apollo 13.


And don’t get me started on breakouts....


I've been back on demo for a while now, (have discovered I'm an excellent demo-er) I've been practicing a few things...

1. Volume, not in the true VSA sense, more for exits, not sure whether it’s a hindrance or help yet. More like a comfort blanket.

2. MA's to enter a trend trade or breakout from consolidation on a 5min chart. A work in progress as still not bread and buttery enough...Nor am I skilful enough at recognizing this clear as day phenomenon till after the fact. But I want to become more adept at this - for when those Ma's flatline for yonks, it's a singer. If I get the direction right!! That's the once a week/ month runaway trend day.

3. My main strategy is counter trend trading, capturing a few pips on the retrace after a big move/ candle. I trade Euro/$ or £/$, which pair traded is mainly down to whether Oanda's on the spread widening wagon, rather than sense.

I trade 1 min or 5 min timeframe, one minute if momentum is slow and confidence high...5 mins if price is beezling about like a frog on speed.

Reference to higher time frames, S&R, T/L's, daily highs and lows noted, as targets to aim for.

My ideal is looking for trend exhaustion, with RSI divergence – counter trend trade taken for minimum 5pips - averaging into move if price falls/rises a wee bit further, a maximum of 3 times, till I either get breakeven teaser, nice profit or less loss.

Sounds simple enough, and is, mostly, till I face the dilemma of my 3x averaging are all in the red... And this is my Achilles heel. I'm either- :

a) Taking a manageable rule based loss. Scouts (as some call them) are stone dead.

b) Taking a near disaster loss, as I failed to bludgeon the scouts to death and take the manageable loss.

c) Never-ever touching a trading platform in my life loss, while shooting myself with a single bullet to the temple, a deerhunter/deer in headlights style loss.

My goal for this year is too hone this strategy; it works 8 times out of ten. However, taking the 3x loss at a recoupable loss versus an account fecking blown again loss has to be obeyed. 5-6% account DD, is my rulebook, like losing 3 trades in a row.

Gains I'll work on, they are always unknown, and prone to the vagaries of forex sod's law. Whereas losses I can control and the key to success in FX is managing losses.

Blimey, I do rabbit on....nearly done...

Perhaps this little anonymous journal sent into cyber space, might make me more accountable. That’s the plan anyway, stop larking about, I’ve spent way too many years failing, and this is last chance saloon...


Or maybe some other blind hopeful about to be suckered into parting with their hard earned dosh on a slick marketing course - which of course is sprinkled with fairy dust and alludes to untold riches and joy....Could just stop...think and listen, for I’m your dreamstealer.


Next, I'll post Friday's trading, if my honest soul can stomach the embarressment of coming clean, otherwise I'll skulk back to anonomity...

Happy New Year to you all. good luck.

Stop wasting money and come over to Ken's thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=311095

....and a happy new year!!

Hi Annie,well you have certainly made me laugh......not at you personally but with you,the reason because I would estimate there is probably 95% of traders that have been down the same route (this time next year ).We have all been part of the scams,the $97 ea's and so on,carry on learning Annie if you want it hard enough you will get what you are looking for.
All the best Tedge

Happy new year annieb.

Great post. I hope this is the year it all falls into place for you.



Kai

Hi Annie - take heart for you are now quite possibly among people who want you to succeed

Although thankfully not as drawn out I've put myself through a similar experience so as well as Ken's thread that someone posted (I'll have to check that out) also suggest looking Tom's thread here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=287794

As for my own shocking history it's all recorded here for posterity http://www.robertsweetman.com and yes, I too have overpaid supposed trainers for ridiculously expensive crap

So let us take heart as we embark into a New Year for the only defeat is to quit and therein lies only mediocrity...

Namaste

Rob

Hey annieb, stop going to courses and learn from the market its the best teacher.

Happy new year and wish you luck!

That's not forex. Every woman I know has these flaws

Only joking. If you are still trying after 4 years then it shows you have staying power and determination. Most people would have given up a long time ago so don't be so hard on yourself.

I wish I could give you some inspirational words of wisdom but I have been in the same situation myself. Eventually everything will just click and fall in place.

My only advice would be to stay away from the lower time frames and look at the 4 hour and daily time frames. That's when my luck changed

Exact opposite advise from me Everyone kept telling me longer time frames are easier. I found out though that it was much easier to find a 10 pip move than a 100+. Each to their own I guess.

Can you find that 10 pips consistently everyday for years?

Normally get about 5-10 opps per day, so more. But obviously not everyday, some days there are no trades and some days are losers. But the large sample of trades that scalping produces means statistical anomalies (losing or winning streaks) do not last nearly as long in terms of real time. If you are only taking a couple of trades a week then statistical anomalies may mean months and months of losing. Also, having so many oppertunities mean I can risk well under 0.5% per trade. If I was trading longer time frames I would either need a much bigger account or more risk per trade to make enough, and I hate risking more than 0.5%. As I say, each to their own. These reasons among others are why I am more confident trading the shorter time frames.

Well , that fine in that case then. If you cannot risk more than 0.5 % , then i guess you have to trade small TF.

But note that there is more risk in smaller TF than in Higher TF.

you can take low risk high reward trades on higher TF, by HTF i mean 4H or more and you don't need a bigger account. Simply reduce the leverage and lot size.

Better to have high probablity / accuracy in HTF than higher risk/ low probability with lower TF.

I too have been trying for years .. the 1-hour timeframe lends itself to some good analysis .. check it against the 4-hour, mainly to see if there's a valid range to confirm current trend .. but what I like best is then doing business on the 15-minute .. why?

becoz you can set a 10-point stop & observe progress at close quarters .. if you're lucky ok .. if not, you haven't lost much.

of course you can do that on any timeframe .. but on the 15 it works best .. maybe the close-up viewpoint helps .. avoid entry on a long candle is my advice FWIW.

Thanks everyone for the advice, support and encouragement, is nice to know I’m not alone.

I have not traded today due to public holidays, nor have I posted Friday’s trades as reading back my notes, I sounded like a nutter.

But I have been busy. All sorts of plans made. I’m a very, very good list maker.
I have my pre-trade plan and trade record plan.

I have done this many times before in the past, only for due diligence to collapse when things begin to go awry. One, twice, three times awry is copeable – one, two three, days/weeks is not.
I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but sometimes what you do (methodology) works for ages and you think, great I’ve cracked it at last, then just like flares and prawn cocktails it doesn’t. And it takes time, compounding loss and despair for you (me) to notice.

Anyway,
To my trade record plan I’ve added a box (oh I’m sad) for my thoughts during a trade. Usually when I enter a trade (rightly or wrongly) I have a loose target in mind, then have a tendency to exit prematurely if price stalls or things don’t go according to plan. Recording my thoughts will let me see if my emotions are clouding my judgement. A no-brainer result there methinks.

Crucially, I’ve also added post trade analysis - to see what happened afterwards. This will let me identify if my initial entry reason was valid/sheer idiocy/brilliant, and whether my stop loss, additional entries, exits, were correct.

Naturally I’m brimming with cautious optimism at the moment, so thanks again for taking the time to post.

Cheers Annieb

Nice post, it was well written making it readable.

But for all that hand-wringing, have you identified what the problem is? I see a few things you mention that could be the problem, but you need to focus. Until you clearly identify and name the problem, nothing will change.

thanks dopey,

I have developed trading bad habits, but I know me too, I only have the concentration span to be a discretionary scalper for a few hours a day. After that I'm skull bored and trigger happy.

I'd say my big problems are fear, self-doubt, hesitation and impatience.

I have learned to be afraid of the market, even on a nickel and dime account it matters. This makes me in turn hesitant in entering and exiting (as I don't believe good trades are like buses) then by contrary, impatient. a) in case I miss the right time to enter a trade, this leads too early/late entry = unneccesary drawdown -tho bias might be correct. And b) afraid it's going to turn, so snatch a good profit when it's there or I hesitate and watch it turn back down. Do that often enough Risk outweighs Reward, all rules slide and I'm back in disaster town.

Yet if I continue to make rules and then break them (discipline) I am the saboteur of any statistical proof of edge, irrespective of method.

Thanks again Annieb

If I am reading your first post correctly, it appears you found a profitable way to trade during those 4 years. Grew your account tenfold you said.

Have you considered returning to that method?

You said one NFP blasted your account... was it that you didn't follow a rule on that day? Did you chase a loser? Could you have in hindsight, not traded that day and continued on being profitable?

I was in the same boat you were in years ago and now, in hindsight, I realize I actually learned a couple of methods that were profitable, but I let one time blowouts convince me to abandon what were actually otherwise profitable strategies. It wasn't the strategy, it was me on a given day that caused failure.

If you grew the account tenfold, you likely had something right in your trading method. Could it be just as simple as tightening up your personal rules and leveraging your experience gained to give the method another shot now that you are a smarter trader with more experience?

Maybe you have already done this, but just my thoughts. I also like your new task of recording your emotions with each trade. I think this will ultimately get you to where you want to go.

totaly agree with gejordan

you've been trading positively before so why not go back to that, adjust what happened on NFP day so it doesn't happen again and then stick with it.

I often believe a traders worst enemy is the forex forum websites. we are drawn to them like a moth to a flame. seeing who's using what and what systems their using, looking for the holy grail. we test a strategy for a few weeks, maybe even successfully. but then we look on a forum and read someone made a 1000pips this week using the XYZ strategy so we switch to that....the cycle goes on.

PRE TRADE ANALYSIS – euro/$. Session London. Time 7.48am

Major trend down. Current trend up, made new high on 7am candle of 3008, now retracing.

Broken out of recent range overnight, made high of 3008. Broken over 3000, so ? Trending day, but chasing market.

Resistance levels – recent high 3008. 3021. 3057. 3085
Support levels – 2971, 2920.

Hugging 100Ma on 5min chart, above 100ma on hrly, now below 200ma.

Stops likely to be above 3008, below 2960.

News @8.30am, 8 55am, £ @9 30

£/$ up too, euro/£ ranging

Plan - buy on pullback. Goal- attempt 5% gain = 50pips@ 1000u. Loss 5-6% DD

Position sizing - Default ESL 28pips on 1000u,
- Add on 1, 1100u, SL 21,
- Add on 2, 1500u, SL 12

OPENING BALANCE - $113

TRADES
1) 8.44 – LONG 1000u @ 2979, Reason DB from 6am low. Target, 3000 or 7am high. Defualt ESL 28pips= 2% DD

Initially +ve, then momentum died, crawling up.
9.15am exit at recent local high @ 2995 after long candle. Reason too slow. +13.

Retrospectively - Trended up post news to 3040, ? exited too early.

2) 10 01 – short @ 3022 – divergence, O/B ? trend exhaustion target 3010
Too early, instantly –ve7.

Added - 10 03 short @ 2028, reason, as above. B/E teaser, hesitated, gone.
Added - 10 10 short @ 3037, reason, recent high.

Exited all positions @3032, doubted it would go down, took loss instead, result, net loss-15.5pips, 1.2%DD, max DD 4% during trade.

Retrospectively - Went on to make a low of 3017...and then I was long...stupid trade.


3) 10 18 Long @ 3032, as had taken loss in previous trade, expected it to go back to test highs, target 3040-50. –ve straight away.

Added - 10 22 – long @ 3028, prior area of movement, expected bounce.
–ve 6

Added - 10 25 – long @ 3020, showing evidence of turning, extremely O/S, went –ve 5, nervous...

10 39 – Exited all positions @ 3030, thought price might make LH, rather than test highs. inc spreads, trade 1, -4, trade 2, +3, trade 3, +10. Happy to be B/E.

Max DD 4%, if hadn’t turned, total DD at max for daily loss threshold...

Retrospectively – Bias correct, but entered too early and mismanaged trade due to earlier loss. At no point did price return to low @ 3017

4) 11.15 – short@ 3040, new high @4047, divergence and reversal candle.
1119 – exit +5, looks like range on 5 min chart.

Thoughts on market, might be genuine up trend and go to 3080-100, but possibly just stop running, tired and mojo gone. Just chasing market. Quitting for now.

5) 12 35 – short @3032 making LH’s, scalp only. Exited @+2, as stopped bang on 200ma. Impulse trade, conscious of lack of 5% gain.

6) 1242 – long @3028, recent lows, scalp only. Exited stall @+3.

Retrospectively, was the high where I exited, then dropped a further 16pips. Initial entry to early, and drifted back to lows.

7) 12 55 – long @3022, thought would return to highs, B/E didn’t take, went -10. Nervous. Aware I’m overtrading.

Added – 13 25 - long @1313. Asian highs ? support., hoped for highs @ 3047, but nervous and didn’t want to give up profit, so exited @ +1 & +10.

Retrospectively – pulled back again to 3020 area, and this was best entry for a long. Too early again, too nervous again. Subsequently ruined next trade.
Net gain 4%


8) 14 48 short @3026, making LL, waited for B/out of recent lows.
Decided to up position size to 2000u to try and get gain 5%. Target area 3013 -00
...turned instantly, -ve all along, -20 at peak. That was the low and why I hate breakouts...Stuck in thro news, but looked like it might be turning back down...

Added – short @3040, last high area, further 2000u, knew it was a mistake instantly and only done to average out loser. -7, DD 5%...

Flipped – @ 3047 to long with 4000u, nervous as it instantly stalled, thought price would break higher, but may retrace first., phew, broke higher, exited @4060 with +13, still less than 5%..

2) 15 28. Short 2000u @high 3068, +5 exited prematurely as afraid price was going to break higher.

3) 1530 – long @ 3050, RN, dropped further, -11. Didn’t expect that!

Added @ 3045 – 6, bricking it. Exited trade 1 @ +1, trade 2 @+8.

4) 4pm candle went up, expected profit taking for London close, so sold @ the new high of 3068, but bricked it, exited @+3. Couldn’t stand it anymore - Making mistakes galore.

CONCLUSION – 5% gain is too big a target to gain with 1000u. I will often have the direction right, but entry too early. And I can see that after having a losing trade, I am still carrying it on to the next trade. Overtraded, and was a skite away from disaster.

A bloody nightmare basically. Did not find trading a breeze today. Am too tired to do anything else now and work tomorrow!

Night, night. Annieb

Hi Annie

Ok... I'm not a good trader (yet) but please read a post I did on my own blog here - http://robertsweetman.com/2011/05/09...perience-argh/- this was a while back then come back to the rest of my reply...

Read that? OK... please take my reply in the spirit it's meant.

1.) From your first post it's probably the case that you actually know a lot about trading. However it sounds (like me) your idea of what trading is isn't actually correct. Like me you have spent a LOT of time being taught or sold a bunch of crap.

2.) If you look at EURUSD/GBPUSD or AUDUSD today there may be one or two entries with high probability chances of success on each pair. This is looking at 1H charts. If you want to know more I'd suggest you start with the_wizards thread here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...highlight=fail

3.) If you're determined to trade at 5 minute intervals then go look at Jimmy Young's website http://www.eurusdtrader.com Knowing Jimmy's approach again there was probably again only 1 signal to take on each of the three majors I mentioned all day

I know how you're feeling 'cause I've been there so please read the next bit carefully.

You are too emotionally attached to the outcome of your trades. You absolutely have to be able to disconnect who 'you' are from your results in the market. E.g. I'm a great bloke (modest too) but I suck as a trader pretty much however I absolutely do not get phased by making a losing trade. It has no effect on how I feel about my day, myself or anything else because I've not bet the farm on the trade and I'm immediately asking 'what can I learn from this so I avoid screwing up in the future?'

My biggest challenge till very recently has been relying on crappy information as the basis for a trading approach. Take a step back and re-asses. It's the smart thing to do rather than carry on banging your head on a rock.

Patience, patience, patience. The question to ask yourself after a failed trade is absolutely NOT anything like 'How can I make my money back' but 'What can I learn from this experience?' What I've learned about my own trading recently is that I've the patience of a hyperactive 4 year old so have done three things to improve the situation. 1) Moved to 1 hour charts 2) Implemented a 3 hour rule i.e. don't look at the trade unless this amount of time has passed 3) Don't look at my P&L at all - look at the fr**king chart only!

I'm sure there's a whole bunch of people on this forum who will give you some great pointers as I've really only just started lurking about here so I'll keep it short.

Putting yourself under so much pressure to succeed isn't going to make you a happy person. Focus on the process of placing good, thought out trades and managing them well. Then learn from each one by keeping good records.

Good God woman....... I am exhausted just trying to read this .........

You are making trading way harder than it has to be......