Aud/Jpy Sell Orders 78.5-78.0 | Forex Factory

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Aud/Jpy Sell Orders 78.5-78.0

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 1, 2012 10:32pm Jan 1, 2012 10:32pm
Retail orders suddenly popped up a few hours ago.

Blocks of orders can be seen entering via: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#AUD/JPY

Any thoughts or trading strategies going on there?
  • #2
  • Jan 1, 2012 10:43pm Jan 1, 2012 10:43pm
http://i39.tinypic.com/345cx3t.jpg
  • #3
  • Jan 2, 2012 10:03am Jan 2, 2012 10:03am
EmeraldEyes,

Since most traders lose money, I wouldn't trade based on the positions of all retail Forex broker's clients and surely not just one of them. AUD/JPY has gone down in the last few days because of the USD/JPY. AUD/USD has actually gone up.

Don't listen to me though, I recommend conducting and trusting your own analysis.
  • #4
  • Jan 2, 2012 10:56am Jan 2, 2012 10:56am
Actually it's not a bad idea to be positioned against the average. Not saying one should mechanically trade against the crowd but if it's true that the majority loses, and the long-short ratio is 75 % on the AUDJPY then this means long AUDJPY would probably be a losing trade, except for the swap of course.

As for AUD going up, I reckon it could be just EURAUD and GBPAUD being sold in copious quantities. Kinda same relation as EURGBP and cable - EG falls and cable skyrockets, for no obvious reason.

Quoting Vilkezar
EmeraldEyes,

Since most traders lose money, I wouldn't trade based on the positions of all retail Forex broker's clients and surely not just one of them. AUD/JPY has gone down in the last few days because of the USD/JPY. AUD/USD has actually gone up.

Don't listen to me though, I recommend conducting and trusting your own analysis.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #5
  • Jan 2, 2012 12:38pm Jan 2, 2012 12:38pm
I would stay away from this pair altogether until it shows some conviction in one direction or another. The higher lows and lower highs it's made make it untradeable IMO. Since it's looking like a bearish pennant, and since I'm generally bearish on the fundamentals, I'm looking to sell this pair at the first sign of a breakout to the downside, which for me would be a sustained break below the lower Bollinger band.
  • #6
  • Jan 2, 2012 2:26pm Jan 2, 2012 2:26pm
This would be a stop run trade as price cuts through these orders. When it broke 78.5, limit buys above 78 just showed up. I can almost guarantee there's an option barrier @ 78 too.

Sell orders @ 78.49 78.43 & 7.39 w/ TP @ 78.1

Vilkezar, I think a large retail broker like Oanda must hedge this abundance of orders so they'll be dumped on the least informed traders somewhere, making a broker's order book somewhat a fractal to the retail orders in that area. Maybe not

spekitox I'd just run down the sell stops and cover fast. wow, lots of retail guys are holding on to longs. That can explain these sell stop orders. Guess we'll have to wait for this holiday to be over for price to push down.

Superslam, yes a short on a break would be nice. I dont use TA, but price goes where the orders are.
  • #7
  • Jan 2, 2012 9:15pm Jan 2, 2012 9:15pm
Sub-78.50 sell stops canceled at break of 79 where large sell limits are absorbed. Someone had a nice big trade going on.

Check out the chart in the link in the first post and watch em disappear this last hour! haha
  • #8
  • Jan 7, 2012 5:18pm Jan 7, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
This would be a stop run trade as price cuts through these orders. When it broke 78.5, limit buys above 78 just showed up. I can almost guarantee there's an option barrier @ 78 too.

Sell orders @ 78.49 78.43 & 7.39 w/ TP @ 78.1

Vilkezar, I think a large retail broker like Oanda must hedge this abundance of orders so they'll be dumped on the least informed traders somewhere, making a broker's order book somewhat a fractal to the retail orders in that area. Maybe not

spekitox I'd just run down the sell stops and cover fast. wow,...
I never follow AJ but from my experience of EU and other majors, I dont think someone will place an OB @ 78 after price just went away from it 150 pips and only after 8 days and in these risk averse markets,... though there was a decent jump at 78.15 which looked like a defense so i am not much sure.
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  • #9
  • Last Post: Feb 8, 2015 1:41pm Feb 8, 2015 1:41pm
Long AUDJPY is a carry trade. Since OANDA is one of the very few firms that actually pays interest, many Oanda clients put on carry trades.
So naturally the Oanda orderbook is skewed toward long AudJpy. So I wouldn't read too much into it. Now, while I do believe going against the crowd is theoretically a good idea, one must not be mechanical about it. The herd isn't always wrong, and in fact is usually right when the market is trending. The herd is however bad at guessing market tops and bottoms. That's when being a contrarian puts money in your wallet.
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