Times to stay OUT of the Forex market completely | Forex Factory

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Times to stay OUT of the Forex market completely

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 12, 2011 1:30pm Jun 12, 2011 1:30pm
Hey all, this thread is a place to talk about when it is NOT safe to trade the Forex at all, due to any of the following reasons...

 

  1. Holidays to watch out for.
  2. Low volume periods that are likely incoming.
  3. News releases that might be dangerous to trade.
  4. High volatility periods that are likely approaching.
  5. Entire weeks or days that should be avoided altogether.
  6. Times when many pro traders are NOT going to be trading.
  7. Other times when the market might act like WACK more than normal.

Please post here your forecasts if you believe a bad market condition is coming, any why!

Note: This isn't really a thread to predict whether it will go up or down, or to predict a reversal or a breakout. This is a place to discuss when not to trade at all.

  • #2
  • Jun 12, 2011 2:19pm Jun 12, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting steps123
Hey all, this thread is a place to talk about when it is NOT safe to trade the Forex at all, due to any of the following reasons...

 

  1. Holidays to watch out for.
  2. Low volume periods that are likely incoming.
  3. News releases that might be dangerous to trade.
  4. High volatility periods that are likely approaching.
  5. Entire weeks or days that should be avoided altogether.
  6. Times when many pro traders are NOT going to be trading.
  7. Other times when the market might act like WACK more than normal.

Please post here your forecasts...

If there is no opportunity, then do not trade. If you don't have absolutely overwhelming odds on winning the trade, then do not trade.
  • #3
  • Jun 12, 2011 3:30pm Jun 12, 2011 3:30pm
When your trying to bury a dead stripper that you accidently killed while fucking in the bathroom of your vegas pent house after a few hits of crack and all of this is being paid for from your day trading funds and your thinking "shit I gotta make this money back or my wifes gonna kill me"


STAY OUT!
  • #4
  • Jun 12, 2011 4:11pm Jun 12, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting newyear498
When your trying to bury a dead stripper that you accidently killed while fucking in the bathroom of your vegas pent house after a few hits of crack and all of this is being paid for from your day trading funds and your thinking "shit I gotta make this money back or my wifes gonna kill me"


STAY OUT!


Any national holiday in the US or UK (the others don't matter too much).

Stay out when you're angry, pissed off or trying to get revenge on the market. Any other time is good in my opinion
  • #5
  • Jun 12, 2011 4:59pm Jun 12, 2011 4:59pm
Quoting willf


Any national holiday in the US or UK (the others don't matter too much).

Stay out when you're angry, pissed off or trying to get revenge on the market. Any other time is good in my opinion
Also if you're not feeling 100% (i.e. You're ill or drunk) or when you are distracted. You should have complete focus when trading!
  • #6
  • Dec 30, 2011 4:02pm Dec 30, 2011 4:02pm
The holidays haven't been so good to me, trade wise. These 2 last weeks of December.

Will the thin choppy market conditions extend to the fist week of January? Should one avoid them or trade smaller lot sizes to lower the risk?
  • #7
  • Dec 31, 2011 12:33am Dec 31, 2011 12:33am
Quoting Alec
The holidays haven't been so good to me, trade wise. These 2 last weeks of December.

Will the thin choppy market conditions extend to the fist week of January? Should one avoid them or trade smaller lot sizes to lower the risk?
Low volume makes for low risk anyways.. The markets just don't move. Come mid next week though we should be rolling strong again, the markets will return to their normal volatility (become more of a risk)
  • #8
  • Dec 31, 2011 12:50am Dec 31, 2011 12:50am
Quoting Scotty B

Low volume makes for low risk anyways..
Surely volatility is increased not decreased in thin (low volume) market conditions, it takes less to move price.
  • #9
  • Dec 31, 2011 12:54am Dec 31, 2011 12:54am
Quoting newyear498
When your trying to bury a dead stripper that you accidently killed while fucking in the bathroom of your vegas pent house after a few hits of crack and all of this is being paid for from your day trading funds and your thinking "shit I gotta make this money back or my wifes gonna kill me"
LOL

Yeah I hate it when that happens....
  • #10
  • Dec 31, 2011 1:04am Dec 31, 2011 1:04am
Quoting pipmutt
Surely volatility is increased not decreased in thin (low volume) market conditions, it takes less to move price.
Look at the most liquid trading hours, they are the most volatile in FX.

*** Edit***

You are 100% correct in your assumption though.. Weird, I know. I think what it boils down to is that the low volume hours in fx (low liquid overnight) are low liquid and don't move simply because nobody is trading.. If someone came along and tried to manipulate the market they'd probably be pushed back.
  • #11
  • Dec 31, 2011 1:18am Dec 31, 2011 1:18am
Quoting Scotty B
Look at the most liquid trading hours, they are the most volatile in FX.

*** Edit***

You are 100% correct in your assumption though.. Weird, I know. I think what it boils down to is that the low volume hours in fx (low liquid overnight) are low liquid and don't move simply because nobody is trading.. If someone came along and tried to manipulate the market they'd probably be pushed back.
There have been some spectacular spikes in the Asian sessions, or there were when I was trading it a while back, too old for that shit now

Anyway how's it going Scotty, 2011 a good year?
  • #12
  • Dec 31, 2011 1:33am Dec 31, 2011 1:33am
Quoting pipmutt
There have been some spectacular spikes in the Asian sessions, or there were when I was trading it a while back, too old for that shit now

Anyway how's it going Scotty, 2011 a good year?
Yes, 2011 was good to me. Still learning and adapting almost daily. I look forward to seeing what 2012 has in store. How was your year?
  • #13
  • Dec 31, 2011 3:43am Dec 31, 2011 3:43am
Quoting Scotty B

Yes, 2011 was good to me. Still learning and adapting almost daily.
Great, you're right that's the thing about this business, it doesn't matter how long someone's been trading there's always something new to learn.

Quoting Scotty B

I look forward to seeing what 2012 has in store. How was your year?
Less intraday trading this year due to other commitments but it's been ok'ish, hopefully back in the swing in 2012 for my daily fx fix!
  • #14
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:19am Dec 31, 2011 4:19am
Please stay out from market if you don't have money

Take a loan/ borrow from your relative or friend to trade IS very bad idea.
  • #15
  • Dec 31, 2011 4:40am Dec 31, 2011 4:40am
Just 2% a month can pay back any loan worth taking plus interest!

Borrowing money is a good idea if you know what to do with it!
  • #16
  • Last Post: Dec 31, 2011 6:59am Dec 31, 2011 6:59am
Well, I see people saying they'll be back to trading January 9. For some reason, they seem to avoid the first week of the year.

Why is that then?
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