Advice on NZD/USD trading system?

Does anyone know a trading system designed especially for NZD/USD?
Could you please post links here?

Many thanks!!!

If a profitable system works well on eur/usd pair ,it should work more or less same with any pair, if it is not then it is curve fitting..Do not forget to consider the spread, because it kills any profitable system ,it is like a bug for trading systems they created by brokers to destroy profitable systems.
There are profitable systems in FF so look for one and decide yourself.

Yes, that's why I asked for advice, because the spread eats all the profit but the systems,that I know, work very well with e/u. But I like NZD/USD and am looking for the trading system that was made especially for this currency pair.

hey dude dont u think a working "system" or methodology works with ANY pair? i mean say u got a nice one and u can use it in forex, stocks, options, bonds etc... i mean a strategy doesnt have to be specific to a specific instrument ... but just my view

if u still looking "for it" good luck.

well, I know several systems, but some of them do not work with several futures and stocks, but work very nice with others. I wonder how someone trades NZD/USD. I just want to diversify my trading instruments and strategies...
May be... I will make up a strategy for this pair if no one can share it

Do you truly think that the spread has been created by brokers? If you do then you have no idea how this or any market works and you are in no place to give out advice. Sorry mate, don't mean to be rude but blind leading the blind is not a good thing.

I don't understand this. So you have a profitable system that works well with the E/U but it gets beaten by N/U because the spread is to large? Why on earth would you decide you like N/U when you can't make money with it? Do you think the name is pretty or something? If you have a system that profits on the e/u but not n/u then it is a no brainer - trade e/u and make money.

Psychologically, several professional traders say that it is better to diversify your trading instruments because when one is stuck others shoot up. I agree with this point of view and saw it many times.
As for N/U spread - yes, it really eats all the profit of my system because, say, E/U spread is 1 it eats half of profit but N/U spread is 3 and it eats all the profit. If I traded only E/U and when the pair was in flat I got bored, but if I traded other pairs and they rocketed and got me profit it would be easier to wait out E/U flat.

Fair enough. I think with a pair like this though, you probably need a bit of a long term trade in mind so the spread is not such a large % of the move you are after. Have you tried your system on G/U, U/J, E/J, A/U? These pairs also have a naturally low spread. Good luck

Do you request specific hours for trading NZDUSD system or just system whatever created only for NZDUSD?

Don't waste your time trying to find any system especially for NZDUSD.

Research what NZDUSD is correlated too.

For NZDUSD its never bad to check NZDJPY, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDCAD or if you want to go so far the whole NZD + USD range. Basically decent AUD and USD breakouts always move NZDUSD. Then you just have to check how well NZD does against AUD.

It's a very nice pair to trade if you wait for the real breakouts where NZD kicks the balls of all other counters.

I think that it would not be correct to say that there is a specific trading system for each pair. Of course, there are several elements that make the difference between the currencies, but it is the same way of analysis for all of them. Try to understand what is going on with the currencies of the pair and make assumptions according to that.
In the daily chart of the pair we can see an obvious downtrend that started somewhere on mid 2011, but we are witness of the higher-low pattern that began on November and might indicate that the bearish session is over. However, the trend is depended on the direction of the USD against the other major pairs, so it is too soon to determine the trend in this point. If the NZD break-through the 200 SM around 0.80, it would be a bullish signal for the Kiwi, but until then, there is a higher probability to see a bearish reversal.

As was said earlier, to answer the OP's question, you need to understand correlations. Currencies that are negatively correlated provide the strongest, smoothest trends; in other words, by pairing the strongest against the weakest. Conversely, currencies that are positively correlated tend to zigzag sideways, with overlapping candles and long, 'jagged' wicks.

See the plots in the attached screenshot. On the D1 plot, EUR is the weakest currency; NZD is the strongest. Now have a look at a EURNZD,D1 chart, and look at the strength and smoothness of the downtrend over the same period (last 3 weeks or so). Then compare that with EURUSD, and (if you're a EURUSD trader) count all the pips that you've been missing.

Of course all of this is based on the notion that yesterday's trends will still hold good tomorrow, but then that is the same assumption that's held with all trend-based analysis.

Now here is a hypothetical question for you. Suppose GBPUSD has been rising more steeply than USDJPY. Everything else being equal, which pair should you trade? If you've been following what I've been saying, then you'll know that the answer is GBPJPY. Why? Because of the triangular equilibrium that must always be maintained: GBP/JPY = GBP/USD x USD/JPY. If you doubt this, get a calculator and multiply the prices together. One of the things that was hammered home clearly to me when I wrote the Recent Strength indicator is that FX prices are effectively nothing more than ratios: EURJPY is the perceived strength of the EURo relative to the JPY.

Generally, USD and JPY are positively correlated, and in the main, their plots move in harmony. Up until the last couple of months, EUR, AUD and NZD were all positively correlated, but EUR now has fallen away from that triplet, and EURAUD and EURNZD have been the big trenders. CHF was by far the strongest currency in the months leading up to August 2011 (even a monkey could have made money by pairing CHF against anything else), but then the SNB intervened, and you can see the result in the monthly plot. GBP and CAD tend to move contra to USD and JPY, but not as strongly as AUD and NZD do (and formerly EUR and CHF). Of course all of these are generalizations, and they fluctuate as national economies boom and bust in never-ending cycles.

The D1/W1/MN strength plots are very good for folk (like me) who are too lazy to learn how to interpret fundamentals. Instead of attempting to decipher whether GDP or CPI is more important than unemployment or interest rates, I get simple visual confirmation that (for example) the market currently perceives EUR to be the weakest economy, and AUD and NZD the strongest. For as long as this view continues to hold good, those strong, smooth trends on EURAUD and EURNZD must likewise necessarily continue, and any short positions that I have open will continue to accumulate profit.

The notion that a strategy that works for one pair should work equally well for all pairs is as naively incorrect as that which states that a good strategy should work profitably in all timeframes. But the latter is a subject for another post.

David

Thanks David, excellent post, especially the part quoted above. I'm going to look at your Recent Strength indicator as soon as I can.

Pete