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vsa with Malcolm

  • #22,381
  • Dec 22, 2011 10:19am Dec 22, 2011 10:19am
Quoting BeLikeWater
but just to remember and I suppose its better to focus.
Agreed, still waiting for your reply to my PM.
  • #22,382
  • Edited 12:24pm Dec 22, 2011 11:01am | Edited 12:24pm
Hello Im finding this last 2 days pretty interesting for us VSA users, I think we have got very nice signals in Forex Market.

I have a question for advance users regarding Climatics actions that dont get respected in the near term future.

What I mean is when you get a very clear climatic action and 10-20 pairs later it gets violated.

Some of you consider this situation a big signal that the trend is going to continue. I post an image so maybe you understand what I mean better.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...ee0/doubts.png


Or telling otherwise, Do you consider the action going south the second selling climax, to be an EFFORT without RESULTS, and then treat it like a SOW?

Thx

BLW
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #22,383
  • Dec 22, 2011 1:17pm Dec 22, 2011 1:17pm
I want to share this trade, I'm sure this is one that Liam would have taken. I went short off of the no demand, but what is important is WHERE the ND took place. If you look several bars back the market tries to rally and gets slammed with tonnes of selling producing a very nice UT. The next bar has hidden selling because the spread has slightly narrowed, the volume has increased, and it has failed to penetrate the top of the UT bar. On the next bar the market tries to get rid of sellers and produces a massive shakeout, however the next bar is a ND and shows that there is lack of interest to go up therefore the shakeout has failed.

A shakeout on its own is a sign of strength, however the fact that it has produced no result is countermanding and therefore you must construe that the market is weak. Usually I give the market a few bars to develop before I draw that conclusion. Often it will seem like nothing is going to happen and then suddenly you get an explosive move up.

after the ND the market falls off a bit and finds support on the low of the SO. Then you see several ND bars again, but what is important is that they are all located within the buying tail of the shakeout. You can draw the conclusion that where there was once massive buying present (on the SO), there is now lack of interest, therefore the path of least resistance is down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled2.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #22,384
  • Dec 23, 2011 5:07am Dec 23, 2011 5:07am
Quoting meromar
Where are Malcolm,s posts? Does he trade?
Last thing I heard he was robbing a casino in Vegas then ran off to the middle east...look what`s happened there!

Hi Mal
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #22,385
  • Dec 24, 2011 3:18am Dec 24, 2011 3:18am
Quoting gez40
Last thing I heard he was robbing a casino in Vegas then ran off to the middle east...look what`s happened there!

Hi Mal
Then illegal thread must be banned
  • #22,386
  • Dec 24, 2011 6:06am Dec 24, 2011 6:06am
Quoting apple_sauce
I want to share this trade, I'm sure this is one that Liam would have taken. I went short off of the no demand, but what is important is WHERE the ND took place. If you look several bars back the market tries to rally and gets slammed with tonnes of selling producing a very nice UT. The next bar has hidden selling because the spread has slightly narrowed, the volume has increased, and it has failed to penetrate the top of the UT bar. On the next bar the market tries to get rid of sellers and produces a massive shakeout, however the next bar is a...
Such trickery, why even s/o if you really have no reason to mark prices up..effort but no result..
  • #22,387
  • Dec 26, 2011 5:11pm Dec 26, 2011 5:11pm
Lol I took a look on the weekly and monthly chart of gold today (didn't check them for some months now), and it's crazy... Probably the ones who follow the gold here have seen it already, but there's a huge top reversal with very high volume on the monthly, and it's heading for the weekly trendline with good volume and wide spreads.

Distribution already happened on the silver (very evident there) on the last months, and silver usually moves with gold. Plus, USD index is in a base since 2008 and it's on the low of the base now. I think we're seeing the beginning of gold's crash fellows, brace yourselves...
  • #22,388
  • Dec 27, 2011 12:15am Dec 27, 2011 12:15am
Guess everyone is on Vac. ..lol - I for one , am trading my arse into the New Year..
  • #22,389
  • Dec 27, 2011 8:43am Dec 27, 2011 8:43am
how can you tell if a consolidation aerea is a distribution aerea?i mean you may have signs of weakness but then see a breakout to new highs.how do you know its not a re-accumulation taking place?any hints ?
Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,390
  • Edited 10:59am Dec 27, 2011 10:10am | Edited 10:59am
USD/CHF not able to breach 0.93450 on relatively high volume. Possible further down..

USD/CHF 15M
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/5702/usdchf.gif

There we go...

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/8441/usdchfa.gif
  • #22,391
  • Edited 11:55am Dec 27, 2011 11:42am | Edited 11:55am
Look the just of it is this..we want to let professional money take the lead when there dealing in the currency or stock. If we plot support or resistance lines,were looking for a breach in movement of the lines to the upside/downside on increased volume. For example if we have a resistance line and its breached on high volume, we have to wait for a test either a no supply test or a regular test on a narrow spread.This signifies that supply has been removed to the left otherwise it's a false breakout.Prices can only move so far if you have supply in the background.

If you get a breach of support to the downside on a wide spread, we wait for a no demand,which is nothing more then a test of the demand to the left. A no demand is a narrow spread low volume up bar.Professionals are showing they have no support to the up move or are failing to respond to the demand in the background.

The fact is that no supply or no demand are really in itself just the same thing but should be situated in certain places after a high volume WIDE SPREAD move either to the upside or downside.

It's really that simple..
  • #22,392
  • Dec 27, 2011 12:32pm Dec 27, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting swingfiddle
how can you tell if a consolidation aerea is a distribution aerea?i mean you may have signs of weakness but then see a breakout to new highs.how do you know its not a re-accumulation taking place?any hints ?
If it's re-acumulation you'll see the high volume on down bars and on the bottom of the range. Distribution is the contrary.

But if it's near a resistance, if you see "distribution signals", it may not be distribution. It can be supply coming from the resistance, and the break-out in that case means the demand overcame supply (however in some cases even though the prices break-out, they don't have professional support anymore, so it then falls down).
  • #22,393
  • Dec 27, 2011 1:07pm Dec 27, 2011 1:07pm
thanks for you help Usfed and Jasus!!

here a g/u long i took at a no supply bar (where the arrow is)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 32 KB
Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,394
  • Dec 29, 2011 6:46am Dec 29, 2011 6:46am
Hi Swingfiddle
I have a few issues with your long trade, meaning I don't like it.

1. Your chart shows price data from the 23rd and 27th of december and you have drawn trend lines based on this. My charts show price data for the 26th of December, this would make a big difference to the position of any trend lines.

2. On your chart for the 27th, the second highest bar of the day, with the pink dot above it, is a lot lower than on charts I have looked at. Sould be the current high, therefore price data feed is suspect (time of year maybe).

3. If we take your charts as being correct, I agree with your logic of 'no supply bounce' off upward sloping trend line BUT...

(a) Are you late to the party, how many times do you want to touch the trend line before taking action?

(b) Look left, there has been some serious relative selling going on. The bar that is the high of the day and the next but one ( which has even higher volume but goes nowhere.) The red horizontal line on your chart is a great indication of a resistance level and your long trade is in the worst possible place.

(c) Look at the 'diamonds' indicator you have on your chart. What is it's purpose and what did you do wrong? (Youtube + Tradeguider = Fewer dumb trades)

The above comments are based on the single chart shown.

Swingfiddle, I'm not interested in the result of the trade, just the reasons why you entered it in the first place. I hope you read MTM multiple times and watch all the TG videos on youtube. Lean to 'read' and the profits will be yours in 2012.

Happy Trading
  • #22,395
  • Dec 29, 2011 1:07pm Dec 29, 2011 1:07pm
Hello guys,

I have a question: Would you recommend the TradeGuider Software? I have seen many videos on youtube but I am still unsure whether I should purchase the software or not.

The guys who own it, did it improve your trading? Looking forward to hear from you. Thanks.
  • #22,396
  • Dec 29, 2011 4:58pm Dec 29, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting Aspire
Hi Swingfiddle
I have a few issues with your long trade, meaning I don't like it.

1. Your chart shows price data from the 23rd and 27th of december and you have drawn trend lines based on this. My charts show price data for the 26th of December, this would make a big difference to the position of any trend lines.

2. On your chart for the 27th, the second highest bar of the day, with the pink dot above it, is a lot lower than on charts I have looked at. Sould be the current high, therefore price data feed is suspect (time of year maybe)....

Hi Aspire,and thanks for you time analysing my trade.
Indeed it didnt work,i had a loss of few pips

i will respond to your numbers

1)true i dont have data for 26 but neither think or swim platform has either,so i thought it was all closed because of bank holiday

2)i am very lucky u saw that because that makes my broker a bad one.what you see on the chart as a high of day doesnt exist!price never made it to 1.5695,so i went to M1 and there is a 1 minute candle spike there...very suspicius..20 pips more than real price is a robbery,ill call my broker for this

3)diamonds are not green and i overlooked this ..

well...i ll do better next time lol

happy new year!
Never again will fade the trend
  • #22,397
  • Dec 29, 2011 9:23pm Dec 29, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting fguru
Hello guys,

I have a question: Would you recommend the TradeGuider Software? I have seen many videos on youtube but I am still unsure whether I should purchase the software or not.

The guys who own it, did it improve your trading? Looking forward to hear from you. Thanks.
great piece of software, even spoke to the owners..Gavin is a great, I like the fact they put education before selling.
  • #22,398
  • Dec 29, 2011 9:43pm Dec 29, 2011 9:43pm
Check this guy out

Inserted Video
  • #22,399
  • Dec 30, 2011 2:10am Dec 30, 2011 2:10am
Quoting Usfed
great piece of software, even spoke to the owners..Gavin is a great, I like the fact they put education before selling.
  • #22,400
  • Dec 31, 2011 7:32am Dec 31, 2011 7:32am
Quoting fguru
Hello guys,

I have a question: Would you recommend the TradeGuider Software? I have seen many videos on youtube but I am still unsure whether I should purchase the software or not.

The guys who own it, did it improve your trading? Looking forward to hear from you. Thanks.
I`m gonna take the plunge myself but not till the new version comes out this year, looks like it has some nice new features.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
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