ENERGY ...continues

Merry Xmas and Healthy, Prosperous New Year 2012!!!

Back some time ago I was trying to get myself disciplined enough to write a journal. It didn't work out. Too much time-consuming. Now I stopped day-trading. Daytrading is fine if one has time to watch trades and/or working EA that could bring SL to break-even at specific levels. I didn't have time nor the EA, so I stood in drawdown.


UPDATE 2012.02.28 - SIMPLIFY

I'm dropping taking trades off Heikenashi color change and some bar formations.

A. TRIGGERS:
Pin Bar and it's 50% retracement
Inside 4 Bar - with or without 50% retracement - depending on setup.
Inside Pin Bar - same as above
Tweezer Outside Bar - seldom, with 50% retracement.

SETUPS: based on AOI - Areas of Interest:

MRY - Mean Reversion Yearly Levels
MRQ - Mean Reversion Quarterly Levels
FRS - Floating Resistance-Support Levels (EMA 8, 21, 42, and/or trendlines)
PPZ - Price Pivot Zones incl. S/R levels of previous swings
RN - Round Numbers (major only, i.e.: 1.000, 1.5000
Retracements of +/- 50% of the last swing or DGL level 1,2,3
POC - Point of Change and 90% so-called "kill-zone".
Terminal Patterns: Harmonic Patterns, Horizontal Terminals, Diagonal Terminals, Expanding Terminals - only if they occur at AOI and form a trigger.
ER - Event Retest / Rotation - in an uptrend price bounces of resistance, then goes through, and comes back to retest the broken area; in a downtrend price bounces off the support, then breaks down and comes back to retest the area.

There are 2 approaches: with trend and contrary.
With-trend: I'm looking for the price to retrace then form a trigger. I'm not buying new strngth or selling new weakness (breakout trading), but rather waiting for a price to retrace, hence it might be viewd by some as a contrary approach.
Contrary - I' looking for the price to bounce off MRY, MRQ, touch trades or waiting for setups. At the same time I will take a trade with a trend if price forms ER around these levels.


I want to thank the traders and educators whose material I found helpful: Donn Fisher of DGL and Arco Trader, Akuma99 and his forum, James16 for awakening me into price action setups, and Neil Fuller - (I've never purchased his course though) for great clarification on price action and helpful ideas, Tim Morge and Paul Coghlan - real Masters of Pitchforks, Joseph Harts for Trend Dynamics course, and...myself - for never giving up!

This is basically swing trading the daily time frame (!!!ONLY!!!), using 2-3 strategies (not mechanical systems) that I've used for past year, while still developing and testing new ones. RR should be 1:2, but we should strive for higher.

Waiting to sell AUDUSD

Waiting to buy USDCAD on D1.


On H8:
Another limit order for USDCAD long @1.0220 SL:1.0113. Should enter on the breakout of the bar market with arrow, but it occured when I didn't have access to my pc. Since chasing price seldom pays I put limit order at my desired price. If it get's filled I'm in for 1% risk (another 1% on daily chart), if not then no problem. There will be plenty more setups.

2011.12.30 - H8 long order triggered

Hello Grzesiek

I see U are from Poland, how U doing in forex market, please continiu the thread I will be waching it, nice chart by the way, Pozdrawiam

Hello,

Not Grzesiek at all, but from Poland. I do forex for maybe 5 years, up and downs, now it's getting much easier. When I was constantly on D1 timeframe I've had steady returns for about 3 years, +/- 20%. I gave it all away for a charity called "Daytrading"
After getting my mind back I started doing just what I used to before, hence the Energy...continues.

Thanks a lot for coming by. Jak tam u Ciebie?
Pozdrowienia i Duzo Pips w Nowym Roku!!!

GBPJPY half closed, other half SL=BE, GBPUSD same.
Short Gold closed for 476 pips (I don't count the last digits of Gold, only the first 5, i.e.: 1.555.5

Gold order long @ 1.567.8 SL:1.517.1. Support on ema365.

another look at Gold from different chart: bullish harmonic pattern+convergence of channels+price pivot zone+horizontal spring terminal = all the reasons to go long. could that be fake-out? signal is signal, have to trade it, just 1% risk because I just start to trade Gold.

EUR touch trade order waiting. Short @1.2975 SL:1.3122. Mean reversion yearly support level. It may also retest median line. Risk 1% on all touch trades.

GBP 2nd half closed at 1.5470. Total pips 274.

CAD - don't like the manner price behaved after entry on H8 Pin Bar. The retracement is too deep. half closed @ 1.0158 (-62pips).

AUD - order cancelled. disregard the setup.

CAD H8 chart - Pin Bar off Quarterly Mean: long order @1.0230 SL:1.0146

Gold H8 chart - rejection off 50% & ema 275. short order @1.557.7 SL:1.585.0. Gold is in my trading zone, can choose to ignore it or trade it. Once it leaves that zone there could be long time before it gives another setup, hence I have to take all the setups within my trading zone. Risk 1%, but size is bigger since SL is small. "Small risk attracts large size"

The long trade on Gold: moving SL to 1.535.8

Disregard gold short setup. order cancelled

2012.01.04 - On D1 setup cancelled.
On H8 - stopped @ 1.0158 and 1.0112 (1pip slip). Total loss -85pips (-0.8% of equity)

GBPJPY - we have a very nice Pin Bar by definition. The only thing is it occured on platforms that include weekend bars. On other platforms such low price (the long tail @ about 118.40) was not registered at all (low at about 118,80) . Hence I don't take this setup. If it was in a lower zone I would be happy to go long. If it was in the upper zone I would be happy to go short. But we're in a zone that for me looks like "indecision zone". No trade.

I would be watching this zone. Many things fall into this setup: 150ema (expotential moving average), 200sma (simple moving average) - both converge and form floating zone, PPZ (price pivot zone - where support might become resistance, and v/v), 50% retracement. I will close my long in that zone if the market shows rejection.

GBP - short touch trade @ 1.5733, SL staggered: 1.5833 & 1.5890 (129pips). Quarterly mean reversion level, PPZ, 50%, possible minor horizontal terminal pattern.

I found it somewhere on "XE Trade the world's favorite currency site". Ican't resist but call 90% of it dumb.


15 Questions You Should Ask Your Forex Broker

The following 15 questions are based on the above information and relate to basic information that your Forex Broker should answer without hesitation.

How long have you been a Forex Broker?actually this one is a good question



In what financial condition is your company? Will you show me your balance sheet?
sure like hell they will.



Do you have good relationships with reputable banks?
they all do, very good relationships with "very" reputable banks. and even if ... so what?



Who is quoting the rates, my broker, a bank, or multiple banks?
it should be rather: r u retail (read bucket shop) or ECN (read: another bucket shop?



Are the spreads fixed of variable
fixed - the spreads will be too big. variable - read: we will slip you when we can



How tight are the spreads
dumb question - assuming the dealer has 50 pairs to trade... this is not a question for a phone conversation, plus they can and will change the spreads.



Do you offer Fractional Pip Pricing
off course they all do... but depends how fractional. rather ask what is your maximum and minimum trade size



Are there any trading restrictions?

if they tell you - no scalping, news trading, etc - just hang up. although i don't trade like this, the only broker who told me they don't allow these things was a swiss broker which went belly up pretty soon.



Can I place orders inside the Spread?
never heard about this one. that is spread betting perhaps.



Can I earn interest on positive rolls?
sure, but mostly it will always be less than the negative swap.



Can I earn positive rolls at all margin levels?
margin levels or leverage level, because swap is usually bigger as the leverage increases, and v/v.



Are rollover rates displayed prominently? Where?
broker should always have them displayed, preferably on the platform like GTC.



Does the trading platform allow me to hedge?
this question surprised me as we're in 2012. us regulations prohibit hedging, other countries allow it. simple.



Can I lose more money than I put into my account?
not with fx. or at least i've never heard about it.



What is the quality and availability of customer service?
ahmmm...stupid tech support (it's always the fault on your side), moronic trading desk (you never win, although I've heard people getting trades re-installed or money given back if they prove it's broker's fault - but i only heard about it, never experienced it myself. what i did experience is the complete opposite).


Be aware that trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.

nice word this "appetite"



The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

"afford" to loose??? why would i actually plan to afford to loose?



You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
ah, yes, i forgot about the "independent" advisors. they're really good. i could never stop wondering how do they advice. why would they "advice"? if the advice worked they would trade their own advice instead. but hey, the next time i have doubts sure i will seek one of these advisors!


OK, so I went little off here, because if you have 100k sure you can open an account with some big firm not a bucket shop. but even then: i highly doubt they will offer any good service, they will give fixed spreads (without slippage on news), they will not cheat on positive swaps, and finally and very highly i doubt the fact that they will not go belly up.
hence it is simple: trading fx - it doesn't much matter with what firm. just avoid small and "dynamically growing" new firms from countries where financial laws are either very flexible or are subject to change.

USDCAD long order @1.0165 SL staggered @1.0065 & 1.0030.
Pin Bar off support: quarterly mean, ema150, trendline. In my trading I've observed that it doesn't matter whether one draws trenlines or uses specific moving averages, retracements, etc. It is just personal preference. Almost always important area of interest will be visible to trenline traders, ma traders, retracement traders, S/R traders, etc. Things converge. It is not magic. And sure, some will be fake setups, but it is not important. What is important for me is to take the trade if I have a signal. Small risk initially (unless I feel very good about a specific setup - then maybe 2-3% risk) and then try to add to it with either going to H8 timeframe or looking for setups in correlated pairs.

2012.01.05 - order triggered

On H8 chart there is short setup for USDCAD @1.0094 [email protected]. Pin bar off quarterly mean. Since I have now 1 long order and 1 short order, both not triggered, it will be interesting to see where USD goes.

Strange, I cannot edit my older posts after a few days.

So, I need to write separate updates.
Gold long stop moved to 1.585