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Do you guys find that forex trading sucks?

  • #281
  • Edited 7:58pm Dec 23, 2011 11:22am | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting zamfir
Sorry to say this , but if you find that after you set SL and price hits and turns around...then something is wrong with your entry strategy.

SL is must...you will regret it later if you trade SL free.

Just my opinion, i am not claiming or making any statement here that SL is a must.

if you are ok to take huge loss, that's fine, as long as you know you are taking them.
For a couple of years the word 'loss' was my middle name.

I've been doing this strategy with pretty much the results you describe and have blown my account twice. The third time around I lost and went down below $1000. I decided to do some serious assessment. There were some things I was doing right. I could generally find the tops of the PA for a short (on down trend markets, all I do is short) but soon discovered my risk level was too high so the gains I made would be wiped out on a margin call. I reduced my risk to 1% and whatever my position, I can endure up to a 150 pip run against me. Getting close to margin is now a rare occurrence. On average, I have increased my account by 50% per month for the last three months. I almost do exclusively cost averaging positioning. Depending on the action of the market, I do anywhere between 3 -6 positions for a trade.

I view myself as now an extremely conservative risk taker. I leave a lot on the table. Usually, if I get 2% on a trade I find an exit strategy often to my detriment. Of course there are some days I can't get in because the market's flat but the overall average should be 2%. If you can't get at least 1% per day, why trade? It's not worth the risk.

My targets:

Daily 2% - Most of the time I get that.
Weekly 10% - Some weeks are short but are made up on the following week.
Monthly 50% - Oct 54% Nov 88% Dec 14% so far.

I'm still tweaking my system but I feel confident in it and has worked for me anyway.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #282
  • Dec 23, 2011 11:38am Dec 23, 2011 11:38am
Quoting Venice
Yep. I use a worst-case-scenario stop loss... but other then that, most of my orders are closed manually because a close above/below a level is what tells me i'm wrong, not a touch.

Just my way.
you want to see and learn low-risk , high probable entries...see my charts..
  • #283
  • Dec 23, 2011 12:00pm Dec 23, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting zamfir
you want to see and learn low-risk , high probable entries...see my charts..
These are the only type of trades I take. 1:1 r/r Minimum per trade. Average is more so around 1:7.
  • #284
  • Dec 23, 2011 7:30pm Dec 23, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting smittens4212
Timeframe does not matter much apart from adjusting your position sizing (to deal with larger stops), which I (perhaps foolishly) thought would be an inherent assumption there.

Trading lower timeframes increases the decision making and the chances for more errors. You are also increasing the chance for profit. If anything you've just highlighted the huge opportunity cost of trading the longer time frames. Risk 1%, trade the daily chart, every trade you make is going to likely take some time to come to fruition (or fail). In that time, you're a...
.........
Hedge funds don't trade short term because they dont want to - not they can't. Multinationals and Money Center banks trade all day long to the tune of 90% or more of the $2-3 trillion daily turnover. If a hedgie wanted to enter early on in Frankfurt or London and exit at some point during NY market hours it could find the liquidity. It is exactly because of their size that they don't but the reason is why settle for peanuts with the amount of trading funds at their disposal.

Go to almost any casino in the world and the best odds (relatively speaking) a player will get is on the Slots. Because they pay out (again relatively speaking) smaller jackpots, excluding MillionDollar Slots which have higher odds, than Blackjack, Poker, Roulette etc etc.

I like to trade like the card counters who win until the Casino get wise to them, then move on to the next one. Maximize winners regardless of winning percentage or individual trade risk/reward ratio.

The majority like to trade like playing the Slots. High percentage wins for small payouts that over time really don't add up.

Most who stick around in this game learn it at some point.
  • #285
  • Dec 24, 2011 4:45am Dec 24, 2011 4:45am
Quoting SunTrader
.........
Hedge funds don't trade short term because they dont want to - not they can't. Multinationals and Money Center banks trade all day long to the tune of 90% or more of the $2-3 trillion daily turnover. If a hedgie wanted to enter early on in Frankfurt or London and exit at some point during NY market hours it could find the liquidity. It is exactly because of their size that they don't but the reason is why settle for peanuts with the amount of trading funds at their disposal.
Can you please refer me to the source, where you read that?

Thanks in advance.
  • #286
  • Dec 24, 2011 5:10am Dec 24, 2011 5:10am
Quoting erock
I've traded forex for the past year. I trade on about $100,000 account and normally trade futures and equities.

Normally if I trade a currency I trade it through a futures contract. I decided to incorporate forex into my trading but was greatly disappointed.

There is too much volatility and the markets don't adhere to any trading theory or indicator. Forex markets don't even adhere to basic psychology that most markets adhere to.

You also can't write covered calls or puts that help to add income to your positions. It just seems like...

I'm a serious trader. I know serious traders personally who do quite well in Fx.

In fact, I left the Equities Derivatives markets behind for Forex, exactly because the data in Fx was superior to that which you find in traditional equities markets. For a technical trader, I can't think of a better market, so I'm not sure what kind of technical analysis you used to determine that Fx did not respond to technical studies.

In fact, Fx just happens to be one of the most predictable markets I've ever traded and I've been developing trading systems and trading this market since 2003, part time. I went full time in 2010.

The key is understanding the pair you trade, developing a reliable system of trading, executing with relentless consistency and not allowing fear or greed to rule your decisions, while using money management that fits the historical record of the system/method you use.

If you do that, it is in fact, hard to lose in this business long-term. I'm not just trading the Fx, I'm actually thriving in Fx. I'm off retail platforms (except for a test account) and I trade on institutional platforms exclusively (except when doing certain kinds of research, etc.).

If you design the right indicators that take the pulse of the market and study the historical data in Fx, you will quickly learn why Fx is superior to traditional equity based markets - but the key is in understanding the data in context with the pair you trade - from a technical standpoint. From a fundamental standpoint, it can't be easier. You have all the economic news laid out in front of you, long before it happens.

In equities, all someone has to do is announce a surprise liability lawsuit that tumbles the stock price and all underlying derivative prices fall with it. If you were Long, you get hosed. Equities, are subject to many external factors that have nothing to do with the management of the company involved. How would you know about the man who got hot coffee spilled on his arm by an employee of the company that you just took a Long position in at 8:30am this morning? Answer: You wouldn't.

But, what's the likelihood that Chairman Bernanke, raises U.S. rates at the FOMC? Or, the likelihood that the next U.S. NFP will significantly higher than expected under the current economic climate? More importantly, whats the likelihood that the European economy will heal itself and raise interest rates during the next ECB meeting? And, those are just the fundamentals of two currencies.

If you take a look at the technicals of any Euro based currency paired with the USD, they are spot on where they should be. Again, if you have the right tools to see clearly with.
  • #287
  • Dec 24, 2011 6:25am Dec 24, 2011 6:25am
Quoting erock
Do you make a profit trading forex? and answer the question honestly
Hello, I'm new here and I want to learn how to trade forex in Africa, reading your point is scary to me, do you mean it's not possible to make a profit trading forex or you meant something else, otherwise why would one enter the system if they cannot make profit

Thanks
  • #288
  • Dec 24, 2011 7:02am Dec 24, 2011 7:02am
Quoting Custos
Can you please refer me to the source, where you read that?

Thanks in advance.
To what specifically?
  • #289
  • Dec 24, 2011 8:15am Dec 24, 2011 8:15am
Quoting collaborate
I'm a serious trader. I know serious traders personally who do quite well in Fx.
I don't mean for you to take this the wrong way but how serious? Are you a fund manager or trade a large personal account? I trade on 100k but getting ready to add another 200 to 400k. I'm not being a smart ass there's just a difference in how you trade a 4k account and 400k

Quoting collaborate
In fact, I left the Equities Derivatives markets behind for Forex, exactly because the data in Fx was superior to that which you find in traditional equities markets. For a technical trader, I can't think of a better market, so I'm not sure what kind of technical analysis you used to determine that Fx did not respond to technical studies.
I found it wasn't good technical at all. I mainly use trend following...elliott etc...I also hedge and trade my positions on two different accounts and also use options to hedge. Markets would trend up but would not follow normal patterns. It seemed like the normal psychology was missing of other markets.

Quoting collaborate
In fact, Fx just happens to be one of the most predictable markets I've ever traded and I've been developing trading systems and trading this market since 2003, part time. I went full time in 2010.
I found it to be totally unpredictable. How successful were you since 2003. Again not trying to be a smart ass or call you out but if you don't mind me asking what has your percentage return been since then and on what amount of money.
  • #290
  • Dec 24, 2011 8:17am Dec 24, 2011 8:17am
Quoting bukavu
Hello, I'm new here and I want to learn how to trade forex in Africa, reading your point is scary to me, do you mean it's not possible to make a profit trading forex or you meant something else, otherwise why would one enter the system if they cannot make profit

Thanks
Why would one gamble
  • #291
  • Dec 24, 2011 10:08am Dec 24, 2011 10:08am
Before I do any [futures] trading at all I have a return on average of around 6% from the notes and bond positions. Then the covered calls and trading positions come in hopefully pretty strong.


There is one trick in FOREX to pad profits similar to what you describe for futures. My broker (FOREX.com) calculates interest on balances held for settlement for positions which are open at the close of the New York forex market. I don't really understand why they do this, but I assume other brokers do the same. This can go in your favor or against you depending on the currency-pair traded and whether you are long or short. Given the way interest rates are running now, if you are long on the AUD or NZD against almost any other currency, you can make significant interest. For example if you are short GBPAUD or long on the AUDUSD you can easily make $80- $100 per day on a $20,000 account. If you do this consistently (every day), you could earn up to $20,000 interest per year (100%) even if your trading broke even. Your trades can be long term or short term, depending on how the market is trending so long as the position is open when the New York markets close. You have to be very careful on this, as you do everything in FOREX. For example if you are on the other side of these trades the same interest fees are charged against you. But if you focus on the AUD and NZD currency pairs you should gain expertise and the ability to trade successfully with these currencies. If your broker doesn't make this calculation, switch to FOREX.com. I hope this helps you improve your FOREX outcomes.
  • #292
  • Dec 24, 2011 10:39am Dec 24, 2011 10:39am
Quoting bukavu
Hello, I'm new here and I want to learn how to trade forex in Africa, reading your point is scary to me, do you mean it's not possible to make a profit trading forex or you meant something else, otherwise why would one enter the system if they cannot make profit

Thanks
'New' is a relative term. If you are completely green to forex, I would suggest a book to you, 'Currency Trading For Dummies'. In fact I just started it, and am finding it very insightful and I've been trading for about twenty years and forex exclusively for about 3 years. Most of my experience and been monetary failure with the success of gaining great knowledge. So I look at my losses as a sort of tuition. If I had to do over, I would have put all my tuition money (60k) into forex rather than the university. My road to recovery would have been a lot sooner.

Here's is the bottom line. You will win but you will lose a lot in the beginning. To put a number on it, your ratio would be 1:10 of wins to losses. But, and the but is big--if you learn from your mistakes the ratio will become more 1:1. And if you gain insight in your trading strategy the ratio will become more like 20:1.

A thing about advice in the forex market: it comes down to this. Aside from giving a few tricks of the trade and how someone else is successful, you simply have to go out on your own and get your feet wet. A demo account is ok to learn platforms and things but it will never prepare you for the psychology of the trade.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #293
  • Dec 24, 2011 11:56am Dec 24, 2011 11:56am
More Volatility equals More Pockets of Supply and Demand Levels to deal with. If you are unaware and don't know where these levels are (And Sometimes , they can be just 20 pips away from your nose ) , Expect to get hurt ( draw downs) .

Stay thirsty my friends....

Inserted Video


And Next time someone says " Forex is Easy " , just ask them why they are not on the Forbes list ..
  • #294
  • Dec 24, 2011 1:21pm Dec 24, 2011 1:21pm
Forex trading is a double-edge sword. think we have to learn wisely.
  • #295
  • Dec 24, 2011 3:41pm Dec 24, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting erock
Why would one gamble
Thanks for the reply
You mean trading is like gambling.

Been playing lottery for 10 years, no luck.. I wouldn't want to add another gambling system.

Thanks
  • #296
  • Dec 24, 2011 3:44pm Dec 24, 2011 3:44pm
Quoting Taigen
'New' is a relative term. If you are completely green to forex, I would suggest a book to you, 'Currency Trading For Dummies'. In fact I just started it, and am finding it very insightful and I've been trading for about twenty years and forex exclusively for about 3 years. Most of my experience and been monetary failure with the success of gaining great knowledge. So I look at my losses as a sort of tuition. If I had to do over, I would have put all my tuition money (60k) into forex rather than the university. My road to recovery would have...
Thanks for the reply and advice.
  • #297
  • Dec 24, 2011 3:52pm Dec 24, 2011 3:52pm
Here is something I posted in another forum but the people there are really not cool and I understand
Quote
I am thinking of doing some forex business in Africa but I need to learn more first.

It's about two neighbouring countries, one (A) with acute shortage and highly on demand of US dollars and another one (B) which uses US dollars as their primary currency.

The country (A) with no US$ have a big difference in exchange rates in the bank and at bureau de change.

I want to learn how I can invest within the laws of those two countries in forex.


To give you an idea:

Bank rate: buying $ at 255 and selling at 240
Bureau rate: buying $ at 175 and...

I want to be getting US dollars from (B) to (A), exchange in bureau de change and put in an account the local currency, as they are short of $us, the bank cannot give me US$.

I am still stuck on figuring out how to use that difference for my benefit before country (A) stands back on its feet $wise

Thank you
  • #298
  • Dec 24, 2011 5:14pm Dec 24, 2011 5:14pm
Trading forex is like riding the waves of the ocean. Not everybody is fit to manage that art over time. As for me, I ride the noise, scalping the M1 and trading ONLY one pair. Seems to me clear enough how do make money with forex.
  • #299
  • Dec 25, 2011 8:32am Dec 25, 2011 8:32am
forex trading have helped me lot to trade local stock market.
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
  • #300
  • Dec 25, 2011 9:07am Dec 25, 2011 9:07am
Quoting erock
Do you make a profit trading forex? and answer the question honestly
Yes. Honestly.

You seem to have a problem with the volatility, but Forex traders thrive on volatility -- that's how we make money. I won't even trade if the 5m has less than 10 ATR.

Learning how to trade Forex is not quick and easy. I trade for a living and have friends who trade Forex both for their own income and professionally, (trading managed accounts). We figured out our average learning curve one day -- it was 7 YEARS! LOL

You can read a lot of claims about hot-shot traders making huge amounts of money overnight, but the question is how much they net over the year.

Our definition of success was to earn $50k or better 2 years in a row.
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