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Do you guys find that forex trading sucks?

  • #241
  • Dec 21, 2011 2:56pm Dec 21, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting erock
You make money in finance through consistent compounding interest. If you had given Soros $1000 when he started his fund you would have 4 million dollars by 2000.

To make a 30% return year in and year for 30 years is unbelievable. Nobody expect George Soros can do it.

It's like throwing a 95 mph fastball with accuracy there's maybe 20 guys that can do it and they are making millions.

Anyone on this site that says they consistently make 30% returns year in and year out is full of shit.

And anyone on this site that claims they are making...
I'm a little new to the forex stuff, so reading this thread kind of made me feel like a kid who crashed his car the first day he got a driver's license.
  • #242
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:57pm Dec 21, 2011 5:57pm
oh erock i was actually going stick up for you slightly as i sort of think i know what your getting at. but to call people who do trade well shit is naughty.have you read about the great george soros and his trading when he just went off hunches at times??? or he had a bad back so he traded differently?. i honestly think that your looking at systems or what ever you call them and cannot get into them so i guess you should try and devise your own just like i did. Just keep it simple. i would love to show you some of my trades but i'm paranoid about out HM REVENUE & CUSTOMS people seeing my private things. A lot of trading contradicts itself sometimes it breaks through barriers sometimes it retraces, pin bars dont always do what they are supposed to do etc etc so i can see where your coming from and thats why i dont trade off them and i just calculated i make just over 1% of my bank roll every 5 days. and i do not intend compounding enough to buy cuba. happy days
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #243
  • Dec 21, 2011 6:24pm Dec 21, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting Venice
To be fair, we have been all over the place in this thread in terms of topic, LOL.
True but to also be fair I wasn't talking about hedge funds' scalping.

Why would they as many have pointed out.

Like using a B-1 Bomber to kill a flea.
  • #244
  • Edited 8:23pm Dec 21, 2011 7:30pm | Edited 8:23pm
Quoting billytt
oh erock i was actually going stick up for you slightly as i sort of think i know what your getting at. but to call people who do trade well shit is naughty.have you read about the great george soros and his trading when he just went off hunches at times??? or he had a bad back so he traded differently?. i honestly think that your looking at systems or what ever you call them and cannot get into them so i guess you should try and devise your own just like i did. Just keep it simple. i would love to show you some of my trades but i'm paranoid about...
I never called anyone shit. I called the forex markets "shit" You've just got to understand my point. You have a forex market which isn't intended to be a financial instrument. It's a huge liquid currency exchange. It''s like outer space, there's a huge unknown factor to it. 99.9999 percent of it's participants aren't traders. They are huge banks and corporations exchanging currency.

That's why it doesn't follow investment theories well and it's very difficult to trade. I'm not trying to say you can't make any money in it or it's not going to work. I'm saying it's difficult for it to work and much harder than other financial instruments, which are intended to be traded. You don't have to be a great trader to succeed or a terrible trader to fail.

I feel it really isn't any type of measure of how good of a trader you are because it's not a fair playing ground. To be honest with you I didn't trade it long enough to really have an honest evaluation and would have to completely re structure what I was doing to make it work.

I have a couple of friends with a little bit of money (4K) that want to start trading and I have no idea where they can start, I guess forex. Mini futures would be ideal or penny stocks.

If you can grow 4k into 40k in forex then hop into futures and equities that's probably the best bet. But long term "investing" or trading probably isn't the best bet.

Guys like Soros or Kovner who are credited with forex aren't trading forex they are trading foreign currency futures, which are much more stable and better for trading. I would be very surprised if those guys ever traded forex.
  • #245
  • Dec 21, 2011 8:02pm Dec 21, 2011 8:02pm
Quoting triphop
All hedge fund managers are in FX, some explicitly, others not. Especially in the past few years, every asset class is hugely exposed to currency rates. Even your auntie miggins with her pension is involved in currency speculation, the only difference is she's not aware of what's going on.
yeah every time I go to the grocery store I do a little commodity and FX trading. Turns out it's quite a racket. 30% increase in food bills and 30% decrease in my monopoly $.

LOL.
  • #246
  • Edited Dec 22, 2011 6:13am Dec 21, 2011 8:17pm | Edited Dec 22, 2011 6:13am
Quoting triphop
If you're telling me that currency futures are running at different prices to spot, screw Christmas, I'll spend the rest of my days arbing it to the hilt. Whether Soros traded spot or futures (and given the volumes, I'd imagine it wasn't through CME) makes not a jot of difference, but I'd agree he's not a great example of an FX trader. Outside of the baht and pound runs, he usually lost on currencies.

All hedge fund managers are in FX, some explicitly, others not. Especially in the past few years, every asset class is hugely exposed to currency...
All hedge fund managers are NOT in FX. Currency trading yes, through FX not at all (at least top twenty). Look at their prospectuses.

Soros was heavily into currency futures, not FX. He was into everything except FX.
  • #247
  • Dec 21, 2011 8:19pm Dec 21, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Is there anything wrong with? NO!

But we are too much into Maths and completely ignoring Art's.

What about " The Love of The Game "???

In almost all the other high paying professions people focus more towards becoming better and better and better at what they do and money just follows them. First thing that comes to mind is Sports, entertainment than doctors and engineers and so on. They know that as long they got game money is not a problem but when they start failing to perform everything's a problem.

Why can't we be the same? Why...
Excellent post. It's very easy to fall into the math pit... because most of it is math. It would be like taking inches out of the game of football.

I think too many start to dream about windfalls in terms of money. They want it now, think there is this money tree out back called FX and all they got to do is open account and start trading and you'll be an instant millionaire.

Part of this blame is the brokers with their "It's easy to trade the Euro" advertising campaigns and the FX monthly trading wars etc. They just fuel the fire to try to get rich quick. It never pans out that way at least not in my experience.

FX is hard, but you can win at it. It takes alot of dedication. I think if not for the challenge of it I would have given up long ago. It takes a special person to trade forex and be successful.

Forget the 15% APY most markets live by you can easily attain 100% APY without compounding your winnings. The road can be long to get there. There is no market like the FX Market.

If the FX market didn't exist there would be no other markets because there would be no money to settle them... keep that in mind. FX is the MARKET. LOL.
  • #248
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:16pm Dec 21, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting Noloqy
I think you interpret it differently than I intended. What I tried to say is:
Attachment

Note that n is countable.

The intuition is as follows: If you have even a negative expectancy, if you trade long enough, there is a 100% chance that you won't end up with a profit (even disregarding a limited account size.)
The original formula you gave was part of the iteration of a summation, and, of course, if you multiply any decimal less than one over n iterations it will converge to zero.

That formula makes more sense but other than long term aggregation, I don't see its practical value.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #249
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:48pm Dec 21, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting erock
All hedge fund managers are NOT in FX. Currency trading yes, through FX not at all (at least top twenty). Look at their prospectuses.

Soros was heavily into currency futures, not FX. He was into everything except FX. Believe it or not a girl I grew up with, her husband used to work at Soros's fund. He just broke away and started his own fund.
I don't understand your argument. I thought the spot market and the currency futures market have the same prices. If not, then please explain why not, I am not that familiar with currency futures.

But if the spot market and currency futures really have the same prices, then it really doesn't matter if you trade currrency futures or the spot market. You would get the same charts and the same difficulty in trading this market. Right?
  • #250
  • Dec 21, 2011 10:57pm Dec 21, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting Venice
These same patterns, these same risk setups exist on all time frames. From the 1m to the Monthly. It doesn't matter. I have yet to see any viable evidence that dictates that the markets are random. And even if they are random, that is what risk management is for.
Working through the thread and glad I got to this post before commenting once again on the NON randomness of the markets.

The only people who think they ARE random are the people who haven't put the required amount of study into forex.

Do the homework before talking crap, bbakker, venice, nice work guys. Priceaction is NOT random.
  • #251
  • Edited 1:02am Dec 22, 2011 12:49am | Edited 1:02am
Quoting erock
...

That's why it doesn't follow investment theories well and it's very difficult to trade. I'm not trying to say you can't make any money in it or it's not going to work...

...To be honest with you I didn't trade it long enough to really have an honest evaluation and would have to completely re structure what I was doing to make it work...

Guys like Soros or Kovner who are credited with forex aren't trading forex they are trading foreign currency futures, which are much more stable and better for trading. I would be very surprised if those...
Finally you are coming out with some honest statements. Indeed the equity investment theories do not work on Forex and you have recognised that your trading style needs to change if you are going to survive in this market.

There are investing opportunities within Forex too in the form of carry trades. Buying AUDJPY or AUDUSD can also give you significant income through the interest rate differentials in the form of swap. Keeping these positions open can generate significant interest income over a long period and if bought at the right time. Using the Forex Spot market means you don't have to renew the contracts every 3 months.

Your perception of the currency markets needs to change and hopefully the contribution made by many respected FF members to your thread has given you a small insight as to why Forex trading doesn't suck and that out of all the markets, it has the lowest barriers to entry, can produce some of the highest volatility (although not as volatile as commodities such as oil), does have the investment opportunities in the form of carry trades and is a market that can be traded 24x5 from Sunday night open to Friday night close.
  • #252
  • Dec 22, 2011 2:28am Dec 22, 2011 2:28am
Quoting erock
..........

I have a couple of friends with a little bit of money (4K) that want to start trading and I have no idea where they can start, I guess forex. Mini futures would be ideal or penny stocks........


Are you friggen kidding me.

Throw 'em to the wolves.
  • #253
  • Dec 22, 2011 2:34am Dec 22, 2011 2:34am
Quoting erock
You have a forex market which isn't intended to be a financial instrument. It's a huge liquid currency exchange. It''s like outer space, there's a huge unknown factor to it. 99.9999 percent of it's participants aren't traders. They are huge banks and corporations exchanging currency.
Wrong. Most of FX volume is speculation.

Quoting erock
Guys like Soros or Kovner who are credited with forex aren't trading forex they are trading foreign currency futures, which are much more stable and better for trading. I would be very surprised if those guys ever traded forex.
Wrong. Currency futures are not more stable, they are the same (as you have been shown already).

Your wilful ignorance looks like blatant trolling. Please stop bothering the real traders with this nonsense.
  • #254
  • Dec 22, 2011 2:52am Dec 22, 2011 2:52am
Listen, this is a ridiculous thread of no value for traders. Forex is a great market to trade, it is fluid and gives endless opportunities to make one great trade after another as long as you know what you are doing. I beg you not to give this thread any more input, because it is a waste of time started by someone from which all decent traders and would be traders will learn absolutely nothing. I implore all of you to make this post the last in this thread, because this guy has wasted enough of your time. Merry Christmas to all bona fide traders out there, may 2012 be better than your wildest dreams.
  • #255
  • Dec 22, 2011 3:02am Dec 22, 2011 3:02am
Quoting cat
Listen, this is a ridiculous thread of no value for traders. Forex is a great market to trade, it is fluid and gives endless opportunities to make one great trade after another as long as you know what you are doing. I beg you not to give this thread any more input, because it is a waste of time started by someone from which all decent traders and would be traders will learn absolutely nothing. I implore all of you to make this post the last in this thread, because this guy has wasted enough of your time. Merry Christmas to all bona fide traders...
Stop pussy footing around and saying what you really mean. I get the feline that you're a whisker away from pawing more scorn on a poster than i've seen before.
  • #256
  • Dec 22, 2011 3:18am Dec 22, 2011 3:18am
Quoting Trotty
Stop pussy footing around and saying what you really mean. I get the feline that you're a whisker away from pawing more scorn on a poster than i've seen before.

"You're either a cretin or one of those weird people that gets their rocks off going around trading forums telling folk that they're wasting their time. Either way, you make yourself look like a plank."

Not quite Trotty - your quote.
  • #257
  • Dec 22, 2011 3:26am Dec 22, 2011 3:26am
I will go with post 121'
Enter Signature
  • #258
  • Dec 22, 2011 6:03am Dec 22, 2011 6:03am
Quoting cat
Listen, this is a ridiculous thread of no value for traders. Forex is a great market to trade, it is fluid and gives endless opportunities to make one great trade after another as long as you know what you are doing. I beg you not to give this thread any more input, because it is a waste of time started by someone from which all decent traders and would be traders will learn absolutely nothing. I implore all of you to make this post the last in this thread, because this guy has wasted enough of your time. Merry Christmas to all bona fide traders...
No wonder I don't like cats; they're irritating. Just kidding but what's it to you if people want to post their views on a dead market. We're like fisherman on the dock of the bay waiting for the fish run (which will take place in January) having a beer talking about old times, fishing techniques, the one that got away and fish theory. Why not? What are you doing that's so important?

I'm only 14% up on my account this month so far and instead of pissing and moaning about it, I'll join in the conversation if something interests me. Otherwise I'm going to bed. Lighten up dude.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #259
  • Dec 22, 2011 6:09am Dec 22, 2011 6:09am
Quoting Custos
I don't understand your argument. I thought the spot market and the currency futures market have the same prices. If not, then please explain why not, I am not that familiar with currency futures.

But if the spot market and currency futures really have the same prices, then it really doesn't matter if you trade currrency futures or the spot market. You would get the same charts and the same difficulty in trading this market. Right?
Take a look at the attachments. You have spot forex on top and futures contracts on the bottom. This is for swiss / usd.

They in complete opposite directions, comparison between futures contracts and spot forex. Do you see my point, More volatility, wilder swings, typically less of a trading pattern.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swiss usd forex.JPG Size: 97 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swiss usd futures.JPG Size: 28 KB
  • #260
  • Dec 22, 2011 6:24am Dec 22, 2011 6:24am
No actually those two charts are in the same direction. Think about it. Top chart is USD, bottom chart is CHF against dollar. But you are correct, swings are wilder. Forex isnt for everyone, if Futures and equities work for you stick with it, nothing to be ashamed of. Honestly, I dont have 100K to put into futures, if I did I would trade it. FX is riskier, but can more more rewarding than futures and equities combined. I think that's what appeals to some many average people, including me. Best of luck to you.
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