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Do you guys find that forex trading sucks?

  • #81
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:05pm Dec 19, 2011 12:05pm
What do you mean trends do not exist in forex? Maybe you do not know how to read trends. I don't know. But, you can expect a trend to exist in these markets for around a month at a time. Due to the nature of currencies, and the balance between them, currencies are naturally a mean reverting market.

Price seems to behave in this market just as it does anywhere else. My monthly target is 20%, and it's rare that I am below that. More often then not, well above it.

This is a nasty time of the year to be trading these markets, and as such I have not been placing the amount of trades I usually place.

For December 2012 I am currently +14.5%. On par for my 20% goal.

This has been an extremely volatile year, just as it has been over in equities. The rumor mill has been fully rampant with all kinds of stories about the demise and saving of Europe. With proper money management and risk calculations there should be no reason why this market is less trade-able than any other.
  • #82
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:16pm Dec 19, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting erock
You've got to be kidding me A 30% return is excellent for any amount of money

$100,000 investment compounded at 200% in 5 years turns into $24 million dollars. http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator...calculator.htm

I'll give you my money and beg you to trade it for me, if you can do these returns through forex. Please let me see your track record.
I don't stare at screens 8h+ per day to compound 20% annually. We are in different leagues.
  • #83
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:22pm Dec 19, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting Fudomyo
If this response was directed towards me, I was equating long term carry trends, not lower TF trending patterns.

In terms of profits, we all work within different parameters of scale.

If you are pulling down anything over 100K at 20% return, then you're doing better than the vast majority of the market.

Good on you.
At the original poster trader. I am a swing trader myself. The same patterns exist on the lower time frames, however I know from my own experience, accuracy drops. But, the amount risked is also scaled back. For instance, on the daily I am risking between 50-100 pips (dependent on setup). But on the 5m it is rare for me to take a hit greater than 10 pips.

At the same time, on the daily I am aiming at 150-500 dips. The 5m is around 20-50.

To me, this game is always about a calculated risk. No matter what currency, no matter the market. Then all I have to do is be right more then wrong. Or at least 50% of the time.

As long as I have a 1:1 or higher, I will pull the trigger.
  • #84
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:23pm Dec 19, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting Fudomyo
You need to average down as you scale up.

If I was trading a $100 account, then I would want to make 1200% a year.

That's easy. No FIFO rules, not sweating buyers, just play in an MM sandbox and hit your numbers feeling like anything is possible.
Yes there is a point where you hit the liquidity barrier and emotional too, and you cant risk the same % and ofcourse at that point you dont need to.

if that's what you are referring too.

but If you are implying that i said that cause i am some looser who wants to make 1200% a year cause i have 100$ in my account than usually i dont care much about others opinion about me on FF.
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  • #85
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:31pm Dec 19, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Yes there is a point where you hit the liquidity barrier and emotional too, and you cant risk the same % and ofcourse at that point you dont need to.

if that's what you are referring too.

but If you are implying that i said that cause i am some looser who wants to make 1200% a year cause i have 100$ in my account than usually i dont care much about others opinion about me on FF.
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it's a starting place. please don't take me wrong.

If you can persist at double digit percentages, you are doing very well.

It is exactly like taxes, you hit the 200K barrier and lose money for getting a raise for a couple of years.

If you're patient, and can sit through the leveling periods, then it works. but most people don't have the long view.

I was saying 30% is excellent if it's consistent.
  • #86
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:33pm Dec 19, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting Agro
I don't stare at screens 8h+ per day to compound 20% annually. We are in different leagues.
Yeah that's my whole point.

Somebody said that everybody gets what they want from the markets. Believe it or not its true.

If someone wants to make 20% cause thats enough for them, than that's fine by me. But if you believe that that's limit of whats possible, that again i'd say your in the wrong business buddy.
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  • #87
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:33pm Dec 19, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting Fudomyo
it's a starting place.

please don't take me wrong.

I just was saying, if you can persist at double digit percentages, you are doing very well.

It is exactly like taxes, you hit the 200K barrier and lose money for getting a raise for a couple of years.

If you are patient, and can sit through the leveling periods, then it works. but most people don't have the long view.
Patience is everything... As an example... I am long biased right now on the Swissy (U/C)... however, I have been waiting over a week for entry. I have an exact place that price HAS to get to before I even start thinking about putting in orders. I also have a place where I prefer to start buying at, and I also have my place marked where if it closes below, the orders will be closed out for a loss.

We do not need to make this difficult
  • #88
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:37pm Dec 19, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Yeah that's my whole point.

Somebody said that everybody gets what they want from the markets. Believe it or not its true.

If someone wants to make 20% cause thats enough for them, than that's fine by me. But if you believe that that's limit of whats possible, that again i'd say your in the wrong business buddy.
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Couldn't be any truer.

20% is completely fine for me... I still work a full time job. Mainly because trading is boring as hell. But, I have turned around 100% months as well. (before everyone gets too crazy and calls BS on me, I have had losing months as well).

Guess what that number is for a maximum loss? 20%! If I hit -20% for a month, i'm done, and it's back to demo. That leaves me with a 1:1 risk/reward on a monthly profit/loss scale, and means that at worst, 1 month can never wipe out anymore than 1 month's worth of work.

It's all about the numbers. Always has been.

Edit: Yes, I know losing 20% on a higher balance leaves you with a slightly lower balance then the 20% gained... was using it as an example).
  • #89
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:38pm Dec 19, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting Venice
We do not need to make this difficult
Agreed. When gold went parabolic, all the USD trades fell into line.

(except JPY, which I'm holding to 80.5 from 100 USD as my base currency)

there's only 4 places to put money atm.
  • #90
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:46pm Dec 19, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting Fudomyo
it's a starting place. please don't take me wrong.

If you can persist at double digit percentages, you are doing very well.

It is exactly like taxes, you hit the 200K barrier and lose money for getting a raise for a couple of years.

If you're patient, and can sit through the leveling periods, then it works. but most people don't have the long view.

I was saying 30% is excellent if it's consistent.
Thanks for clearing that.

I'd also have to say it depends to what kind of methods you use.

Every method could work with a 10k account.

But when you hit 500k or a Million mark, than it depends on how your trading method addresses the liquidity, technical and most importantly emotional issue's.
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  • #91
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:57pm Dec 19, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting Fudomyo
As for the first place to put money, it's always land. I made my first real money in real estate on NYC in the 90s.

I bought large tracts in Osaka waiting for the Casino legislation and the bill goes through this year. Same with palm oil plantations in Malaysia 10 years ago.

These are tangibles.

Forex is mutable. So, if I could offer any advice, take a portion of your profits and put them into tangible assets.
Physical Silver is what I have been buying.
  • #92
  • Dec 19, 2011 1:38pm Dec 19, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting erock
You've got to be kidding me A 30% return is excellent for any amount of money
No, it's really not. A 30% return on a $1000 account is $300. $300 is not shit. That's one night out at a nice restaurant in the city. You're telling someone trading a $1000 account that they should be happy making $300 in a year. Hell, multiply that by 10. 30% on a $10000 account is $3000. Again, $3000 is not shit (assuming you're looking at making this a liveable income at some point).

You mentioned volatility as seemingly the primary reason you were unable to trade FX successfully, but did you ever stop to consider that the very same volatility you are railing against is helping some traders earn returns orders of magnitude higher than you? Risking 2% a trade with a 10 point stop, it's very doable on an intraday basis to make more than 10% a day. That's if you catch a smaller intraday trend, say 30-70 points.

I would also dispute the claim that some have made in this thread that FX is more suited to the short term (although that's my personal preference). Go look at the EURUSD over the last 4 months. You're telling me the move from August-end (1.45) to October (1.32) wasn't a strong enough trend to trade? Or beginning of October (1.32) to end of October (1.42)? Howabout the end of October (1.42) to today (1.30)?
  • #93
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:02pm Dec 19, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting privatefr
I am a professional trader, trading forex for over 10 years, and I am up +110% this year.

Forex it is a complicated market, but it is not more riskier than commodities or equities at all, totally the contrary if you know how to trade it. (this is the original reason of the higher leverage in forex, to compensate the daily smaller price moves compared with your "safe" markets).

You just cant come from other markets and begin trading forex the same, because this attitude will end you in trouble.

You are free to express your opinions...
Hi,

Do you use indicators or similiar, price action or only fundamentals? If I may ask...
  • #94
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:52pm Dec 19, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting erock
I've traded forex for the past year. I trade on about $100,000 account and normally trade futures and equities.

Normally if I trade a currency I trade it through a futures contract. I decided to incorporate forex into my trading but was greatly disappointed.

There is too much volatility and the markets don't adhere to any trading theory or indicator. Forex markets don't even adhere to basic psychology that most markets adhere to.

You also can't write covered calls or puts that help to add income to your positions. It just...
Uh no mate there are serious traders out there. the volatility is WHAT WE ALL LOVE in FOREX. its what separates stocks from forex. 2 trill + is traded average per day its a huge market. No indicator or theory can explain forex? i think you already starting at the wrong mindset of trading forex. there are many types of analysis and methodologies that can help traders make trading decisions. Price action, Price/time analysis, VSa, Elliot waves... the list is endless.u dont need luck, u need an edge. The market flows in harmony and is not random.
i think u just nede time to adjust thats all.

and for the record FX ROCKS !!!!
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #95
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:05pm Dec 19, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting smittens4212
No, it's really not. A 30% return on a $1000 account is $300. $300 is not shit. That's one night out at a nice restaurant in the city. You're telling someone trading a $1000 account that they should be happy making $300 in a year. Hell, multiply that by 10. 30% on a $10000 account is $3000. Again, $3000 is not shit (assuming you're looking at making this a liveable income at some point).

You mentioned volatility as seemingly the primary reason you were unable to trade FX successfully, but did you ever stop to consider that the very same volatility...
You're missing my whole point, you're turning it into gambling. You're scoffing at 30% returns. YOU CAN NOT CONSISTENTLY OVER YEARS OF TRADING BEAT A 30% RETURN ON ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY. DO YOU UNDERSTAND.

Let me give you an example you take $1,000 and average 30% returns for 35 years. It turns into 9.7 million dollars. http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator...calculator.htm

Nobody can do that in forex, you just don't get it. Look at your statements for the amount of time you've been trading forex, what are your returns???!. You are turning investing into gambling
  • #96
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:08pm Dec 19, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting bumapatria
Uh no mate there are serious traders out there. the volatility is WHAT WE ALL LOVE in FOREX. its what separates stocks from forex. 2 trill + is traded average per day its a huge market. No indicator or theory can explain forex? i think you already starting at the wrong mindset of trading forex. there are many types of analysis and methodologies that can help traders make trading decisions. Price action, Price/time analysis, VSa, Elliot waves... the list is endless.u dont need luck, u need an edge. The market flows in harmony and is not random.
i...
What are your returns, do you consistently over time make money. Everyone on this site misses my whole point. It's historical. The only way you make money is through compounding interest and limited risk.

You guys can make 100% and that's great but you won't be able to consistently do it. You are going to lose eventually.
  • #97
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:17pm Dec 19, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting erock
What are your returns, do you consistently over time make money. Everyone on this site misses my whole point. It's historical. The only way you make money is through compounding interest and limited risk.

You guys can make 100% and that's great but you won't be able to consistently do it. You are going to lose eventually.
This is false. Did you just completely skip over all of the calculated risk posts?
  • #98
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:47pm Dec 19, 2011 6:47pm
Trading is about probabilities and making adjustments, no matter what is traded.

Forex historically has been one of the better trending markets though not recently.

Everything oscillates between waves and corrections - the volatility comes and goes. But that is after all how a trader makes money, taking advantage of those situations where the range expands with greater price movement.

So if you have a problem with that you have a problem making money.
  • #99
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:48pm Dec 19, 2011 6:48pm
I decided not to participate anymore in this thread because since I really dont like and I dont share the standpoint of the originator, it make no sense to contribute to it, but since you asked me respectfully I will reply.

Yes, I use indicators, very few, most price action based, some are proprietary and other are public but surely not of common use. Indicators help to bring me the whole picture a lot more clearer, but they indicate to me, they dont trade in my behalf.

I also consider fundamentals, I study all the economics weekly and daily but never trade following news, my charts are in charge, after 20 years of trading (stocks and commodities first, then exclusively forex)

Pepe
  • #100
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:17pm Dec 19, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting erock
What are your returns, do you consistently over time make money. Everyone on this site misses my whole point. It's historical. The only way you make money is through compounding interest and limited risk.

You guys can make 100% and that's great but you won't be able to consistently do it. You are going to lose eventually.
eh no 100% for me would be a dream to make in a day. my target is 1% a day and im up 2.6% for yesterday im quite happy. although i make 17%+ when its a good day im focused and all and always calculate risk first because lowest risk gives u the highest profit probabilities. so forget reward look at risk management first. make sure ur lot size is capable of the risk, what would u do if ur in a losin gposition? stop loss? that aint a plan. perhaps scout first and enter full force after certain condditions apply? rescue? hedge?

its a wide range of weapons in our arsenal as traders to profit. all u need is a good methodology. i dont mean going aroud this whole forum for indis and red blue buy at blue sell at red dots. find the ancient art, the one that lasted. just my 2 cents, stuff like VSA, price action, supply and demand (must learn ) sup/res, elliot wave, price and time anlysis... u know.... the old stuff lol

u must be able to have that profitable mindset first to even reap profits. if u start negative u WILL end negative

those are the ancient art
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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