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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #29,741
  • Dec 17, 2011 8:39am Dec 17, 2011 8:39am
Quoting the redlion
i do see and respect your point.

duly noted, but maybe more open mindedness, more empathy for the new comers, less hostility. From what i gather you are intelligent sensible noble person, it is evident in you.

You have to concede that sometimes people are treated pretty unfairly here at time. Camaraderie would be nice, helping the new comers, explaining our views on how we trade. Maybe i judge fti too harshly but did expect a lot more from him, than calling me personally an asshole face, and ungrateful shit with no provocation at all.
mla for...
Redlion,

I empathize it in this fashion, new traders come to here seeking answers... here FTI has laid out, in an internet thread, with very little overseeing or instruction, a tutorial for self discovery in how he trades and instructed others in his career.

The answers while are self-explanatory are not on the surface, and require a lot of digging, done this way on purpose, imho.

Over the past few years there's many who have tried to blend their own thoughts and various ways to the thread in an attempt to shorten the learning curve.. all have been met with the same outcome by FTI. Mainly for the reasons I started earlier.

Agreed, there's many who follow, who also jump on the bandwagon,but not for the sake of the thread, but more over a defense for the author, yes it exhibits the cult like state, but you see it in every thread when people find the help they are seeking.

If I put myself in FTI's shoes I can see where it would get old to have to repeatedly put the thread back on center. After some time I'd give up, tell everyone the err in trying to shortcut the process and say good-bye. Which he has done on several occasions... I truly think he, like a retired athlete, misses the game...

I broke into these markets with a couple of mentors who dipped me deep into the esoteric side of trading, I love discussing them when i have the time,,, but never ever here in this thread.

Find what works for ya.

regards,
  • #29,742
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:00am Dec 17, 2011 9:00am
Quoting phil13
Fti never said not to cut losses, in fact he states that we should, he has merely given us a tool to recover some of them if we feel it is an option to do so at that time.


I believe the reasons we do not use manually entered stop losses is because it is part of the physiological training that we have to do to develop in our minds to be able to trade this way, to see what is really happening in the market (learn quicker) and how and why it moves the way it does, make a mistake and you could be taught a lesson.

[list=1][*]it keeps you on your...

Careful drawing psychological conclusions as to all the why questions that you may have, especially if your just starting out.

There's a saying in trading that goes something like " A position is only a trade that has gone bad".

Nowhere in the thread is positioning taught or done, this is trading being taught and executed.

If you look closely and read the thread, fti never positions he is always trading.
Learn to feel, learn to flow.
If so it happens you get caught and your stuck, it's a position.
And that's when most traders are really required to use their god-given head.

Rgds, happy holiday's all.
Hope the message reaches everyone OK.
  • #29,743
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:09am Dec 17, 2011 9:09am
Quoting simpleman
Hi Redlion,

What do you think about my attached performance from 17th Nov todate?
I didn't use any analysis just went with the flow, just took very little help from moving averages and volumes.

Till last Wednesday I was running at 80% gain but then I lost a battle on Thursday due to my stupid opening of several trades without keeping gaps and that dragged my account down to about 63% return as I had to close my trades due to un-necessary exposure.

Have you ever thought why lots of methods and strategies are making money to 5% and not to remaining...

Well done.Your trading is going well, congrats.
Rgds
  • #29,744
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:33am Dec 17, 2011 9:33am
Quoting phil13
Fti never said not to cut losses, in fact he states that we should, he has merely given us a tool to recover some of them if we feel it is an option to do so at that time.


I believe the reasons we do not use manually entered stop losses is because it is part of the physiological training that we have to do to develop in our minds to be able to trade this way, to see what is really happening in the market (learn quicker) and how and why it moves the way it does, make a mistake and you could be taught a lesson.
[list=1][*]it keeps you on your...

Here is the Link FOR the Post Where FTI Talked about Stops

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post1902541
Post 1767

Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #29,745
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:43am Dec 17, 2011 9:43am
Quoting jacson101

Careful drawing psychological conclusions as to all the why questions that you may have, especially if your just starting out.

There's a saying in trading that goes something like " A position is only a trade that has gone bad".

Nowhere in the thread is positioning taught or done, this is trading being taught and executed.

If you look closely and read the thread, fti never positions he is always trading.
Learn to feel, learn to flow.
If so it happens you get caught and your stuck, it's a position.
And that's when most...
Hi Jack. Here some turbulences last time, but i think it is OK.
  • #29,746
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:46am Dec 17, 2011 9:46am
Quoting the redlion
i do see and respect your point.

duly noted, but maybe more open mindedness, more empathy for the new comers, less hostility. From what i gather you are intelligent sensible noble person, it is evident in you.

You have to concede that sometimes people are treated pretty unfairly here at time. Camaraderie would be nice, helping the new comers, explaining our views on how we trade. Maybe i judge fti too harshly but did expect a lot more from him, than calling me personally an asshole face, and ungrateful shit with no provocation at all.
mla for...
Red, I hope you stick around and participate here. You have much to offer. I think auxesis's point about the thread is correct, and that is why I post technical stuff and trades on my own journal. Hang around and participate, we can all work through TA and PA stuff here and when we get off TAF topic, we can go to a journal. Just a thought and I appreciate the calm nature of the discussion today -- LOL.
  • #29,747
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:56am Dec 17, 2011 9:56am
Quoting GEfx
Red, I hope you stick around and participate here. You have much to offer. I think auxesis's point about the thread is correct, and that is why I post technical stuff and trades on my own journal. Hang around and participate, we can all work through TA and PA stuff here and when we get off TAF topic, we can go to a journal. Just a thought and I appreciate the calm nature of the discussion today -- LOL.


GE, exactly.... heck this thread has some great "fundamentals" discussions, and I wasn't trying to discourage anyone from participation from that aspect, let's just keep our own tweaks and twists somewhere other than here.

*you getting snow?*

a
  • #29,748
  • Dec 17, 2011 9:59am Dec 17, 2011 9:59am
Quoting -Michael-
Here is the Link FOR the Post Where FTI Talked about Stops

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post1902541
Post 1767

Michael
Michael,

good find... there's a lot of insight into market mechanics in that post.
  • #29,749
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:01am Dec 17, 2011 10:01am
Quoting auxesis
GE,

I personally can't see how the Euro can survive in it's present condition, and I can't see the respective members all agreeing to any one set of criteria and regulation that will save it..... so where do we go from here? It truly is "too big to fail".

If you look to some of history's past sovereign defaults, all are minuscule to what's about to happen..... it will be a global meltdown/fallout.

They have the band-aid on to hold it in place through out the new year, albeit with thin Christmas markets, expect some wild volatility going...
There's an old movie, I think it's entitled "DOA", about a guy who is poisoned at the beginning of the movie, spends the entire moving uncovering the guy who poisoned him, then dies. I am completely convinced that the euro is just like that guy, and the European leaders have just a few weeks to figure out what they are going to do about it before it dies. I think they can put together a transition plan and implement it, but it's going to be a bumpy ride along the way. As for a global currency, I am not sure how that works considering it would do to the world on a global scale what the euro has done for Europe. My biggest fear is that once it starts rolling, the financial issues will quickly take a back seat to world wide international conflicts. All the more reason to build that pipeline between Canada and Texas!

Edit: Just enough snow to make driving a bit of a challenge. Maybe a white Christmas here!?!
  • #29,750
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:14am Dec 17, 2011 10:14am
Quoting GEfx
There's an old movie, I think it's entitled "DOA", about a guy who is poisoned at the beginning of the movie, spends the entire moving uncovering the guy who poisoned him, then dies. I am completely convinced that the euro is just like that guy, and the European leaders have just a few weeks to figure out what they are going to do about it before it dies. I think they can put together a transition plan and implement it, but it's going to be a bumpy ride along the way. As for a global currency, I am not sure how that works considering it would...
Auxesis hums *I'm dreaming of a white Christmas*

Okies and snow don't mix, LOL The past two years we have seen extremes in weather last year was the coldest winter and set records for snow fall (big time white Christmas lasting into late January) here and then the hottest summer on record....... me's tired of hot and cold, hoping for a mild Christmas and weather.

My prognostication for future Euro events.......... I can see the Euro failing to come together early next year, in which the pre-tremors of such an event sending drastic ripples through the world banking system, Lehman type meltdowns across the boards, all markets... they are too inner-related to separate themselves from the contagion... someone, IMF, UN, some newly named emergency fiscal union will emerge with a global plan.... new Britton-Woods agreement........... what that will be????? All this will be announced just prior to the great meltdown, at a point of no return, either accept or 1920's depression on a global scale will be presented...... what ya gonna do? Either take the pill that will kill ya, or die and they get the same thing after everyone goes belly-up, as some global authority will be the only way to bring everyone back from the dead.

But I'd bet my Great Auntie's Blue Ribbon Apple Pie Recipe that the US will not be in a position to retain the reserve currency status as it's positioning related to the Euro default will be to everyone's surprise, unsustainable coupled with it's own debt.

just my thoughts.
  • #29,751
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:23am Dec 17, 2011 10:23am
Quoting auxesis
Michael,

good find... there's a lot of insight into market mechanics in that post.
Thanks auxesis
I have compiled a little Link Post For People It might be Good for the veterans of this Thread and for new people.
Maybe This Links Will make people to realy read this thread without cuting Edges and without making their learning curve shrink.
In this thread there were a lessons that FTI writed That meant to Biuld Mindset Threw The storyes to make people understand certain things

1 Lesson about Human Nature
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post1738225

2 Lesson about Mind over The Matter
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post1746926

3 A Lesson in habit training and stupidity
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post1751584

4 A lesson about important things in life
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post1754008

5 A Lesson about Learning curve
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post1755594

All written by FTI and this is just a tip of an isberg of the Priceless information that FTI put in this Thread
best Wishes
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #29,752
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:29am Dec 17, 2011 10:29am
jacson101 and -micheal-

thanks for the advice and the links

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #29,753
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:46am Dec 17, 2011 10:46am
Quoting phil13
jacson101 and -micheal-

thanks for the advice and the links

regards

Phil.

no worries, makes me glad you are taking my comment constructively and in the correct manner.
rgds.
  • #29,754
  • Edited 11:03am Dec 17, 2011 10:49am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting auxesis
Auxesis hums *I'm dreaming of a white Christmas*

Okies and snow don't mix, LOL The past two years we have seen extremes in weather last year was the coldest winter and set records for snow fall (big time white Christmas lasting into late January) here and then the hottest summer on record....... me's tired of hot and cold, hoping for a mild Christmas and weather.

My prognostication for future Euro events.......... I can see the Euro failing to come together early next year, in which the pre-tremors of such an event sending drastic ripples...
yep. the markets seem bent on making the politicians look silly.
I'm guessing, but I think we're still in store for more government generosity this coming year with all the uncertainty.
One thing's for sure I'm super happy and glad to see the unemployment figs coming down finally, hopefully this trend continues steadily.
Could take some time but once things get going full bore again, watch out..we may need 2 or 3 new oil piplines!

rgds sir.
  • #29,755
  • Dec 17, 2011 10:59am Dec 17, 2011 10:59am
Hi All,

I am new to trading, and i saw this thread very recently...

I have read about first 40 pages or so.. Very insightful ..
I don't think i will be able to read all the 2000 pages in time.....

i would like to know the best way to start...

Anything will be of help.

Thanks
  • #29,756
  • Dec 17, 2011 11:05am Dec 17, 2011 11:05am
Quoting auxesis
Redlion,

I empathize it in this fashion, new traders come to here seeking answers... here FTI has laid out, in an internet thread, with very little overseeing or instruction, a tutorial for self discovery in how he trades and instructed others in his career.

The answers while are self-explanatory are not on the surface, and require a lot of digging, done this way on purpose, imho.

Over the past few years there's many who have tried to blend their own thoughts and various ways to the thread in an attempt to shorten the learning curve.....
That is very well said........but I'd like to know about your mentors who dipped you deep into the esoteric side of trading.

Regards
Bert
  • #29,757
  • Dec 17, 2011 11:31am Dec 17, 2011 11:31am
Quoting -Michael-
Hi Guys !
I have a question about 3 Kingdoms
I Read in posts that some people say that 3 kingdoms in sync but i cant see it in the Charts.
As i imagine to myself to 3 kingdoms to be in sync we have to see Something Like mirror picture of The eurusd and gpbusd against usdjpy
I atach a picture and i dont see the sync of the pairs maybe i didnt understand well what it all about ?
regards
Michael

p.s. I like very much Reading this thread and trying to understand it.
I am very Glad that The owner of this Thread FTI is recovering may the recovery will...
Hey Micheal,

This month we can see the 3 "kingdoms" in sync...

EURUSD, GBPUSD in sync. and USDJPY and other USD*** Mirror image...
It has mainly got to do with US dollar appreciation... We can see the pressure on Commodities as well.

Regards
  • #29,758
  • Dec 17, 2011 11:31am Dec 17, 2011 11:31am
Quoting jacson101

Well done.Your trading is going well, congrats.
Rgds
Thank you my friend.
  • #29,759
  • Dec 17, 2011 12:21pm Dec 17, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting SmartBear
Hi All,

I am new to trading, and i saw this thread very recently...

I have read about first 40 pages or so.. Very insightful ..
I don't think i will be able to read all the 2000 pages in time.....

i would like to know the best way to start...

Anything will be of help.

Thanks
Hey SmartBear
I will just repeat what have repeated here in the Thread FTI Made his presentation about his Trading in 200 first pages
After this there is descations and maybe sume purles here in there and in depth relation to some subjetcs.
So basicly first 200 pages is somthing to start with and than i would sujest to you to try go over all pages but with your pace.
About The kingdoms it is stil subject that in general i understand but hard to implement it in trading for me
Regard
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #29,760
  • Dec 17, 2011 12:39pm Dec 17, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hey SmartBear
I will just repeat what have repeated here in the Thread FTI Made his presentation about his Trading in 200 first pages
After this there is descations and maybe sume purles here in there and in depth relation to some subjetcs.
So basicly first 200 pages is somthing to start with and than i would sujest to you to try go over all pages but with your pace.
About The kingdoms it is stil subject that in general i understand but hard to implement it in trading for me
Regard
Michael
Thanks at lot Micheal, your effort is appreciated. I will surely go over all the pages..
Regards
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