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Silent Service Method

  • #13,281
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:36am Dec 16, 2011 9:36am
Quoting clockwork71
I don't think so.....not yet at least. Next week will be an absolute joke though, unless there is some kind of massive shock again. The move coincided with the SNB announcement almost to the minute.
I'm not viewing it much more then a pullback of the current trend. We can't go in a straight line, as much as I wish we did.
  • #13,282
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:42am Dec 16, 2011 9:42am
new blog post up
  • #13,283
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:42am Dec 16, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Venice
I'm not viewing it much more then a pullback of the current trend. We can't go in a straight line, as much as I wish we did.
Agreed. I think the USD strength should certainly continue into 2012.
  • #13,284
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:52am Dec 16, 2011 9:52am
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. I think the USD strength should certainly continue into 2012.
Agreed as well. Have yet to see anything that would say differently.
  • #13,285
  • Dec 16, 2011 2:33pm Dec 16, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't think so.....not yet at least. Next week will be an absolute joke though, unless there is some kind of massive shock again. The move coincided with the SNB announcement almost to the minute.

What I actually was trying to say is the little rise in stocks yesterday and today is probably caused by low volume. I definitely believe risk aversion will be around in 2012. I had to exit my positions because with the holiday and no real volume for the rest of the month it would be pointless to collect negative interest. In 2012, I will wait for a nice pullback on buy usdchf, usdcad and there are a couple other pairs. Can't wait for the usdcad to break it's ascending triangle.
  • #13,286
  • Dec 16, 2011 3:43pm Dec 16, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting dre3029
Can't wait for the usdcad to break it's ascending triangle.
All the way to 1.30 maybe?
  • #13,287
  • Dec 16, 2011 7:15pm Dec 16, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting dre3029
What I actually was trying to say is the little rise in stocks yesterday and today is probably caused by low volume. I definitely believe risk aversion will be around in 2012. I had to exit my positions because with the holiday and no real volume for the rest of the month it would be pointless to collect negative interest. In 2012, I will wait for a nice pullback on buy usdchf, usdcad and there are a couple other pairs. Can't wait for the usdcad to break it's ascending triangle.
The rise in some pairs could simply be profit taking as well.......the next 3 weeks will be odd to say the least.
  • #13,288
  • Dec 17, 2011 3:12pm Dec 17, 2011 3:12pm
If you look at the past year......this pair is forming the mother of all yearly pinbars. Interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,289
  • Dec 17, 2011 3:22pm Dec 17, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting clockwork71
If you look at the past year......this pair is forming the mother of all yearly pinbars. Interesting.

there u go Chris...
Have a Great Xmas and a PeacefulNew Year..to You and Your Family

baz

USD Spot.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD Spot.png Size: 10 KB
  • #13,290
  • Dec 17, 2011 3:56pm Dec 17, 2011 3:56pm
Hi Guys,

Compliments to y'all.
Pls i am looking for information on monthly forex trade volume.
that is from Jan to December (history).
i mean the general amount of volumes traded every month.
i am trying to compare how the months differ.
any help will be greatly appreciated

Thanks and Happy Holidays.

Cheers.
It Is Well With My Soul..(Amen)
  • #13,291
  • Dec 18, 2011 5:44am Dec 18, 2011 5:44am
Quoting baz
there u go Chris...
Have a Great Xmas and a PeacefulNew Year..to You and Your Family

baz
Looks like a sell signal to me. What's your stop loss?
  • #13,292
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:20am Dec 18, 2011 7:20am
Quoting baz
there u go Chris...
Have a Great Xmas and a PeacefulNew Year..to You and Your Family

baz

Thanks Baz!
  • #13,293
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:20am Dec 18, 2011 7:20am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Looks like a sell signal to me. What's your stop loss?
Well.....would be one hell of a stop loss needless to say......

I think I am just going to use it as directional bias. But it does show just how important a breakdown below 1.29 could be.
  • #13,294
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:22am Dec 18, 2011 7:22am
Quoting babasemi
Hi Guys,

Compliments to y'all.
Pls i am looking for information on monthly forex trade volume.
that is from Jan to December (history).
i mean the general amount of volumes traded every month.
i am trying to compare how the months differ.
any help will be greatly appreciated

Thanks and Happy Holidays.

Cheers.
The closest thing you will find to volume will be in the futures markets. I imagine that you can get that information on the CME's site. As far as spot forex - you never will since the market isn't centralized.
  • #13,295
  • Dec 18, 2011 1:29pm Dec 18, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting clockwork71
The closest thing you will find to volume will be in the futures markets. I imagine that you can get that information on the CME's site. As far as spot forex - you never will since the market isn't centralized.
You can use tick volume in forex...go talk to the VSA guys....
  • #13,296
  • Dec 18, 2011 1:41pm Dec 18, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting clockwork71
The closest thing you will find to volume will be in the futures markets. I imagine that you can get that information on the CME's site. As far as spot forex - you never will since the market isn't centralized.

Alright.

thanks.
It Is Well With My Soul..(Amen)
  • #13,297
  • Dec 18, 2011 1:42pm Dec 18, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting mrscooting
You can use tick volume in forex...go talk to the VSA guys....

Alright.

Thanks ..will look it up.
It Is Well With My Soul..(Amen)
  • #13,298
  • Dec 18, 2011 8:16pm Dec 18, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting mrscooting
You can use tick volume in forex...go talk to the VSA guys....
I would highly recommend not bothering. Tick volume is simply "implied" volume. There is no such thing as true volume in spot forex, period. (I mean.....can you imagine GFT telling FXCM and IBFX what there volumes are on any given moment? Didn't think so.) You are trading in a false market - it isn't real at all. If you are worried about volume, I suggest trading currency futures. The tick sizes are much larger than a micro account though, so you have to have a reasonable sized account. There are micro FX contracts, but only on 6 or 7 pairs form memory.
  • #13,299
  • Dec 18, 2011 10:02pm Dec 18, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting clockwork71
The USD/CHF pair fell today, but I think this is mainly a knee-jerk reaction to a lack of raising the floor in the EUR/CHF pair. The orange line is the break out point. If we get a supportive candle at this point - I am adding to my longs in this position. If it fails - I am out with a small gain.

Hey chris,
One question for you.You seem to look at the weekly and monthly for direction.The usd/chf is down trending in these TFs.Also we are at the 50% fib,on weekly.I just watched a video over at the public forum that actually looked similiar to what is going on in this chart.Can you explain to me why your setiment is bullish on this pair?Thanks Chris...... Josh
  • #13,300
  • Dec 19, 2011 11:38am Dec 19, 2011 11:38am
Quoting jlmac27
Hey chris,
One question for you.You seem to look at the weekly and monthly for direction.The usd/chf is down trending in these TFs.Also we are at the 50% fib,on weekly.I just watched a video over at the public forum that actually looked similiar to what is going on in this chart.Can you explain to me why your setiment is bullish on this pair?Thanks Chris...... Josh
It has less to do with the charts and more to do with the fact that the SNB is working against Franc while the USD is the only safe haven left. Truthfully, it's all about buying the USD in general right now, and this pair is the same deal. I am aware of the retrace, and the 0.95 is a serious area - but this pair is going to continue to rise over time if the status quo is kept.

Also, you have to understand that the EU is going into recession. So this will drive more money into the USA, and even more importantly: shrink the export market for Switzerland. The Swiss export something like 80% of their exports to the EU - this is going to be very bad for the Swiss economy as well as Europe.

Good question though.

Chris
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