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  • #81
  • Dec 14, 2011 1:58pm Dec 14, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
This may add a bit to your bearish view and might give you an entry.

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Look at the nice rejection at the LTL restest, what a candle!

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  • #82
  • Dec 14, 2011 2:03pm Dec 14, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting Dave Floyd
Adding in some inter-market analysis to the mix here, the current count we have on the S&P 500 is bullish (although pre-holiday liquidity could make things less clean) as 1210/05 might provide dent support, thus would be supportive of a bullish EUR/USD. However, EUR/USD has been a dog on S&P rallies - there are better pairs/crosses to play if the S&P's bounce IMO.
That is my main concern during this time of the year, no matter how strong a setup, confluence, correlation may be, it just may fail due to low liquidity.
  • #83
  • Dec 14, 2011 4:20pm Dec 14, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
GBP/JPY

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If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
  • #84
  • Dec 14, 2011 4:44pm Dec 14, 2011 4:44pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
Lower - but based on the wave count - not the symmetrical triangle per se - that simply adds another layer to the analysis process as does the seemingly inevitable break lower in the S&P's (support at 1205/10 looking dicey) as 10-year rates break below 1.90% and BKX (Bank Index) is clearly bearish.

Caveat to this view: pre-holiday liquidity and erratic price action. My advice - turn the screens off after Friday and come back on Jan 2
  • #85
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:02pm Dec 14, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
Sideways - there should have been a breakout of the triangle already, so the pattern is weak, and the trend lines are not likely to hold price. The next move will come when BOJ steps in to prop up the Yen again - soon. Just my opinion.
  • #86
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:16pm Dec 14, 2011 5:16pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
first of all this could become a butterfly but C point isn't tradable.

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i would be bullish becouse the green price action trendline is broken and tested.
furtermore i find the price action of the last bear wave bullish.
that said the current wave looks a lot like a preavious situation which i both marked gray.

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i would not trade this but if i would have to gamble i would buy.
  • #87
  • Edited Dec 15, 2011 12:14am Dec 14, 2011 11:32pm | Edited Dec 15, 2011 12:14am
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
Bull. Supply level above is consumed pricei s making higher hgihs, higher lows within is a possible bull pole and flag. momentum candles are with the bulls.


cycle suggests bullish wave up. price is falling towards the time period, ill be more inclined to buy
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #88
  • Edited 2:25am Dec 15, 2011 2:05am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
There was a bullish candle in October. November's candle is an inside bar (presumably forming part of the triangle). Also, there is some bullish divergence, and the possibility of BOJ intervention.

I would plump for bullish break out if pressed (by a beautiful woman).
Gone to a better place
  • #89
  • Dec 15, 2011 8:32am Dec 15, 2011 8:32am
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
Quoting TheLastCoke
GBP/JPY

Attachment
GBP/JPY Previous consolidation was won by Bears, this may be a clue in a bigger picture.
  • #90
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:13am Dec 15, 2011 9:13am
Quoting TheLastCoke
GBP/JPY Previous consolidation was won by Bears, this may be a clue in a bigger picture.
i am not seeing it.?
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  • #91
  • Dec 15, 2011 9:43am Dec 15, 2011 9:43am
Quoting longshot_nl
i am not seeing it.?
You will if you se the picture in my quoted message.
  • #92
  • Dec 15, 2011 5:16pm Dec 15, 2011 5:16pm
Head and shoulder formation on gbpusd. The neckline was a significant level in the past. I would try enter on the neckline retest (if the scenario will work) but with weekend ahead i am not so sure.
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  • #93
  • Dec 15, 2011 5:47pm Dec 15, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting andrew93
Head and shoulder formation on gbpusd. The neckline was a significant level in the past. I would try enter on the neckline retest (if the scenario will work) but with weekend ahead i am not so sure.
Would be nice to see a powerful Neck Line break to validate the formation. Symmetry is accetable IMHO.
  • #94
  • Dec 16, 2011 4:33am Dec 16, 2011 4:33am
missed eur cad...
have a good weekend.
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  • #95
  • Dec 16, 2011 4:39am Dec 16, 2011 4:39am
Quoting Dave Floyd
We too were watching USD/NOK as a short set-up into the 5.80/90 area, but with weak equities, weak oil and then the 50 bp cut by Norges Bank - it tossed the framework out the window.
eur nok possible setup.
i have to go now, no more messages from me today.
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  • #96
  • Dec 16, 2011 5:39am Dec 16, 2011 5:39am
Quoting andrew93
Head and shoulder formation on gbpusd. The neckline was a significant level in the past. I would try enter on the neckline retest (if the scenario will work) but with weekend ahead i am not so sure.
I won't take it - extremely slow price action.
  • #97
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:46am Dec 16, 2011 8:46am
Quoting longshot_nl
eur nok possible setup.
i have to go now, no more messages from me today.
Besides the TL retest + Resistance + Fib, notice that previous Bullish bounce at TL was unable to make a HH.
  • #98
  • Dec 16, 2011 1:00pm Dec 16, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
If you really HAVE TO PICK a side, which one would you choose and why?
GBP/JPY We might need to wait until next week to find out.

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  • #99
  • Dec 18, 2011 8:04am Dec 18, 2011 8:04am
Quoting longshot_nl
eur nok possible setup.
i have to go now, no more messages from me today.
can be disregarded after last candle.
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  • #100
  • Edited 8:24am Dec 18, 2011 8:13am | Edited 8:24am
eur nzd daily
- previous support broken 4 times already.
- bearish price action.
+ high RRR
+ confluence
+ previous down trend broken up and made hh
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