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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #29,681
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:05am Dec 13, 2011 7:05am
Quoting Adilius07
Hello Fti and traders,

This is my first post here. First of all I would like to thank Fti for starting this thread and lots of wisdom he put in here. Honestly I still reading at the AOW lessons in the beginning of the thread. Lots of interesting things and wisdom in those quotes.

But. Please don't take me wrong. I find all this very difficult to relate to trading (yet) but also I begin to feel that I am somehow on the wrong track with my understanding of the ideas that are written here.

Can some one point me to the post where some core principles...
Welcome. Sorry, but there are no short cuts here. Our standard suggestion is to read the first 200 pages of the thread, very carefully. I personally suggest that you read and study those pages. Once done, you will see that your current understanding is incorrect. It's up to you to do the work. Best wishes and good luck.
  • #29,682
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:10am Dec 13, 2011 7:10am
Quoting GEfx
Welcome. Sorry, but there are no short cuts here. Our standard suggestion is to read the first 200 pages of the thread, very carefully. I personally suggest that you read and study those pages. Once done, you will see that your current understanding is incorrect. It's up to you to do the work. Best wishes and good luck.
Hello GEfx,

Thank you for reply.

Adilius
  • #29,683
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:38am Dec 13, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Adilius07
Hello Fti and traders,

This is my first post here. First of all I would like to thank Fti for starting this thread and lots of wisdom he put in here. Honestly I still reading at the AOW lessons in the beginning of the thread. Lots of interesting things and wisdom in those quotes.

But. Please don't take me wrong. I find all this very difficult to relate to trading (yet) but also I begin to feel that I am somehow on the wrong track with my understanding of the ideas that are written here.

Can some one point me to the post where some core principles...
Adilius,

There's no one post that encapsulates the so called method of this thread, a specific X's and O's, If price does this I do that, does not exist and is in opposition to the "no rigidity" mindset set forth by the author of the thread.

this post, to me, best sums it up in it's most basic form

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1731476

Buy when it's oversold and sell when it's overbought in an uptrend, do the opposite in a down trend.

Of course determining when it's going up and when it's going down is the problem for most, indicators tell you what's happened, but they can't tell you what will happen..... this is why the thread deals with what is happening now, that in relation to what has happened (chart read). Where price is at this moment in relation to all the past highs and lows tells you what to do.... buy sell, hold or sometimes sit it out if you're not all ready in the battle. The dance is just all that, positioning within and trading the up's and downs. The market has a rhythm so you dance along to it.

The thread is written in a way to make you think, relate the imagery and stories to how they deal with trading...... troops become position sizes, the battlefield and how it's laid out becomes the chart and price action.

There's some Money Management tools to help you position in the heat of battle.

There's some psychological studies and help to put you on a solid foundation for longevity in this business.

But the lessons here are just the foundation work, a "Trading 101" course. The lessons and concepts need to be internalized, very well studied so you understand the relationship if you don't see it on the surface. After being behind the screens for any lenght of time, the concepts and ideas FTI lays out will be very understandable.

Most of the info, is scattered across the first 200 or so pages, you will get out what you put in...... study and trade it will become clear after a time.

But don't try to put a rigid mindset on the ideas, everyone wants to focus on rescue because they don't ever want to take a loss.... that's not what's taught by FTI.... read again. There's times to rescue and times not.

regards.
  • #29,684
  • Dec 13, 2011 7:53am Dec 13, 2011 7:53am
Quoting auxesis
Adilius,

There's no one post that encapsulates the so called method of this thread, a specific X's and O's, If price does this I do that, does not exist and is in opposition to the "no rigidity" mindset set forth by the author of the thread.

this post, to me, best sums it up in it's most basic form

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1731476

Buy when it's oversold and sell when it's overbought in an uptrend, do the opposite in a down trend.

Of course determining when it's going up and when it's going down is...
Hi Auxesis,

Thank you very much for your reply. I really appreciate the effort.

Adilius

P.S. This thread is FIVE years old. Amazing really
  • #29,685
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:03am Dec 13, 2011 8:03am
Quoting auxesis
Adilius,

There's no one post that encapsulates the so called method of this thread, a specific X's and O's, If price does this I do that, does not exist and is in opposition to the "no rigidity" mindset set forth by the author of the thread.

this post, to me, best sums it up in it's most basic form

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1731476

Buy when it's oversold and sell when it's overbought in an uptrend, do the opposite in a down trend...
I think one perfect and clear example of this would be that Inside bar short trade on EURUSD. And it clearly came at the best take profit zone at the moment as I see it.

Not as hard as it first seems. Am I close?
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  • #29,686
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:05am Dec 13, 2011 8:05am
Quoting auxesis
Adilius,

There's no one post that encapsulates the so called method of this thread, a specific X's and O's, If price does this I do that, does not exist and is in opposition to the "no rigidity" mindset set forth by the author of the thread.

this post, to me, best sums it up in it's most basic form

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1731476

Buy when it's oversold and sell when it's overbought in an uptrend, do the opposite in a down trend.

Of course determining when it's going up and when it's going down...
As always, a very clear guideline. Very helpful. All the best with your trading. Ray
  • #29,687
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:05am Dec 13, 2011 8:05am
Quoting 1234
As always, a very clear guideline. Very helpful. All the best with your trading. Ray
Thanks Ray.

A
  • #29,688
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:06am Dec 13, 2011 8:06am
Quoting Adilius07
I think one perfect and clear example of this would be that Inside bar short trade on EURUSD. And it clearly came at the best take profit zone at the moment as I see it.

Not as hard as it first seems. Am I close?
Hi Adilius. You are very lucky that Auxesis made such great reply to your question. I think that i am not the only one, who thinks that Auxesis is one of the top here. First first 200pages ... please... for yourself. Regards
  • #29,689
  • Dec 13, 2011 8:15am Dec 13, 2011 8:15am
Quoting Fana
I think that i am not the only one, who thinks that Auxesis is one of the top here.
Completely agree.
  • #29,690
  • Edited 9:23am Dec 13, 2011 8:24am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting Adilius07
I think one perfect and clear example of this would be that Inside bar short trade on EURUSD. And it clearly came at the best take profit zone at the moment as I see it.

Not as hard as it first seems. Am I close?
Adilius,

I'm very vocal about the demise of the Euro, and like most of the world, short the Euro until they have something tangible to buy.... your chart in retrospect is great, there's many who looked to sell there back into the prior broken supports.. but what would you do if you shorted there and price kept going up? How far would you ride it in loss? Why did you determine that level?

It's hard to put into words, but this is the mindset this thread tries to break, better said is the ability "in my words" to trade above this looking down. Most of the trading world is locked into a rigid R:R, here's the place to take profit, here's where I put my stop and here's where I enter.... and while there's many who profit using these concepts... the markets are all aware of these areas and levels and use them against the majority at times.

While the above skills are a good grounding. Seeing, feeling and understand a stop sweep (false breakout), temporary exhaustion in price action and such, in relation to the norm will put you ahead of the majority..... this entails opening your immediate chart vision wider and trading a bigger piece of the chart. if that makes sense. Don't get locked into the simple answer, to the myopic view of the herd, and while the flood is hard to stop, individual places can be sandbagged and kept dry...... the overall trend (flood) normally takes over but individual levels and spots to enter and be manipulated to shake out weak participants if your focus is too narrow you can become victim. There's many times where I took profit based on a level, extension or line and price kept going.... entered on a retrace level and price retraced a little lower, entered on a blip only to fall further..... Let price action tell you when it's tired, when it's ready to move instead of imposing a predetermined view, and then once in, always be ready for her to change her mind or play with your emotions.

regards,
  • #29,691
  • Dec 13, 2011 10:33am Dec 13, 2011 10:33am
Quoting auxesis
Adilius,

I'm very vocal about the demise of the Euro, and like most of the world, short the Euro until they have something tangible to buy.... your chart in retrospect is great, there's many who looked to sell there back into the prior broken supports.. but what would you do if you shorted there and price kept going up? How far would you ride it in loss? Why did you determine that level?

It's hard to put into words, but this is the mindset this thread tries to break, better said is the ability "in my words" to trade above this looking down....
Thanks auxesis! Very clear picture of the battlefield!
  • #29,692
  • Dec 13, 2011 10:53am Dec 13, 2011 10:53am
Quoting auxesis
Adilius,

I'm very vocal about the demise of the Euro, and like most of the world, short the Euro until they have something tangible to buy.... your chart in retrospect is great, there's many who looked to sell there back into the prior broken supports.. but what would you do if you shorted there and price kept going up? How far would you ride it in loss? Why did you determine that level?

It's hard to put into words, but this is the mindset this thread tries to break, better said is the ability "in my words" to trade above this looking down....
Hi auxesis, well said. Regarding the euro, Merkel is the gift that keeps on giving. As for the rest of europe, the more work they do on their problems, the farther away the seem from the solutions. They keep kicking the can, but at some point, the road ends at a cliff.
  • #29,693
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:25pm Dec 13, 2011 2:25pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi auxesis, well said. Regarding the euro, Merkel is the gift that keeps on giving. As for the rest of europe, the more work they do on their problems, the farther away the seem from the solutions. They keep kicking the can, but at some point, the road ends at a cliff.
Couldn't agree more GE. It's like chess game between 5 years old boys. Those people had all those meetings for what - to come up with a plan how to avoid/solve future recessions. Hello, we're in a recession right now! I don't want to sound too dark but this is going to become very ugly in 2012 if they keep playing their "lets meet to set up a meeting" game the way they do it now.

It's not their careers anymore, they are now playing around with the well beings of millions of families.

Rgrds
S

Edit:

The way the S&P looks to me it might be uncle Sam who'd run the printer to save the world again. Super Mario refuses to print while Ben is simply waiting for a reason to. In the end all that paper will be good for nothing but starting a camp fire.
  • #29,694
  • Dec 13, 2011 3:14pm Dec 13, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting Setebos
Couldn't agree more GE. It's like chess game between 5 years old boys. Those people had all those meetings for what - to come up with a plan how to avoid/solve future recessions. Hello, we're in a recession right now! I don't want to sound too dark but this is going to become very ugly in 2012 if they keep playing their "lets meet to set up a meeting" game the way they do it now.

It's not their careers anymore, they are now playing around with the well beings of millions of families.

Rgrds
S

Edit:

The way the S&P looks to me it might...
Hi Setebos,
Yes it's a fine mess we are all in right now, but I think the Fed has been on the right track. They have pumped in lots of dollars with no resulting inflation (yet), and the US economy is standing on its own two feet right now, although not able to walk or run just yet. If we can get the economy going within the next 12-18 months, we will be in good shape.

For Europe, they have agreed to work towards a solution that will doom the likes of Greece, Portugal, probably Italy and Spain, maybe others. The only way Europe will hold together now, is for Germany and France to invest billions of Euro in those PIIGS countries to get their economies going. But, will they invest/give up a significant share of their GDP to help other countries? Doubt it.
  • #29,695
  • Edited 4:01pm Dec 13, 2011 3:41pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi Setebos,
Yes it's a fine mess we are all in right now, but I think the Fed has been on the right track. They have pumped in lots of dollars with no resulting inflation (yet), and the US economy is standing on its own two feet right now, although not able to walk or run just yet. If we can get the economy going within the next 12-18 months, we will be in good shape.

For Europe, they have agreed to work towards a solution that will doom the likes of Greece, Portugal, probably Italy and Spain, maybe others. The only way Europe will hold together...
If they cull the weaker countries, who eats the loss on what's already invested? Cutting their losses may take down others in their wake. I'm beginning to take a different view, actually 2 different possibilities.....

(1) euro collapses and sucks most other currencies with it as the contagion has already infected our banks, unknown to the public,,, remember the recent mandated stress tests by the Fed on our larger banks, they know something is coming. Under this scenario a total bank failure occurs and is replaced will a new global system, the greenback is no longer the reserve.

(2) Forced participation by unwilling Euro members to take the necessary sovereignty and austerity measures. Yes, FORCED like martial law. When it is at the point that the Euro collapses the insuring members will take military action to safeguard the integrity of their respective countries' economies. This will be set up through some 3rd person identity and will be promoted as the only action to ensure the world economies from total failure. Extreme political and economic pressure, sanctions will be put upon those who do not comply, weaker counties will be faced with military removal of their respective governments. The greenback is removed as the reserve currency and replaced with a new IMF like promissory note/ SDR

Again, most will simply sign over, as the fear of a total 1st world banking failure will be too fatal for those in political and economic power.

fwiw........
  • #29,696
  • Dec 13, 2011 3:48pm Dec 13, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting auxesis
If they cull the weaker countries, who eats the loss on what's already invested? Cutting their losses may take down others in their wake.
It's an Europe of two speeds now, they don't get culled. They get dragged to collect what's left behind.
  • #29,697
  • Edited 1:54am Dec 14, 2011 1:42am | Edited 1:54am
Dont forget to collect some Euro coins for the family coins collection! For future generations as a reminder... Just lying beside the one from Babylon... And when the kids will be good, i will tell them about king Nabukadenezar and end of his kingdom.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_collecting
  • #29,698
  • Dec 14, 2011 2:58am Dec 14, 2011 2:58am
Quoting auxesis
If they cull the weaker countries, who eats the loss on what's already invested? Cutting their losses may take down others in their wake. I'm beginning to take a different view, actually 2 different possibilities.....

(1) euro collapses and sucks most other currencies with it as the contagion has already infected our banks, unknown to the public,,, remember the recent mandated stress tests by the Fed on our larger banks, they know something is coming. Under this scenario a total bank failure occurs and is replaced will a new global system, the...
I think we are headed for a very difficult 2012.
http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-hu-urge...160509787.html
  • #29,699
  • Dec 14, 2011 3:20am Dec 14, 2011 3:20am
Quoting GEfx
I think we are headed for a very difficult 2012.
http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-hu-urge...160509787.html
Hi GE. Unfortunately it is very probable. Bad is, that logically China must show muscles as a superpower. In their plan is i think developing army and demonstrating their power to some choosen targets - this is now already on the table. Sorry for that people who will pay for that.. Rgds
  • #29,700
  • Dec 14, 2011 5:35am Dec 14, 2011 5:35am
I thought the story about China and its navy was an interesting example of a surge in nationalism (note to China: if you cross swords with the US Navy, you'll find your navy parked at the bottom of the South China Sea). I think its safe to assume that as countries exit the Euro and/or the euro zone, they will fall into a very difficult situation - financially, economically, and politically. Nationalism is a natural and historically common result, and from there, civil war and even cross border war. Maybe NATO will have a new role in Europe -- peace keepers in Greece, Portugal, etc. I think the US should sit these conflicts out and let Merkel and Sarkozy handle them as they come up. LOL.
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