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Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4

  • #21
  • Nov 26, 2011 3:29pm Nov 26, 2011 3:29pm
11/26/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...6-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #22
  • Dec 3, 2011 4:14pm Dec 3, 2011 4:14pm
12/03/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...3-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #23
  • Dec 6, 2011 3:21pm Dec 6, 2011 3:21pm
thx for the charts. is it possible for you to post the spot gold chart, or even the gold futures chart, instead of the gold index chart?

i haven't found elliott wave theory reliable in the past, i find basic trendlines and chart patterns way more powerful, but i'm willing to learn..
  • #24
  • Dec 8, 2011 7:54pm Dec 8, 2011 7:54pm
12/08/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...p-intraday.jpg
  • #25
  • Dec 8, 2011 8:21pm Dec 8, 2011 8:21pm
Quoting nim1984
thx for the charts. is it possible for you to post the spot gold chart, or even the gold futures chart, instead of the gold index chart?

i haven't found elliott wave theory reliable in the past, i find basic trendlines and chart patterns way more powerful, but i'm willing to learn..
nim1984 - Thanks for follow up with my wave counts. I sometimes post intraday charts, and they will be from futures contracts. For daily charts, I use free charting tool from the web to maintain my charts, for I don't need to bothered by changing contracts (rollovers).
  • #26
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:01pm Dec 10, 2011 2:01pm
12/10/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...0-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #27
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:35pm Dec 10, 2011 10:35pm
Quote
Since you post the chart every week, is it ok to have some comments about the last week's prediction, if it is good, and if not, how you adjusted to it, etc. I think that it will be much appreciated. Thanks.
...
yupek - Thanks for reading my weekly posts. My prediction is based on the Elliott Wave principle that everyone can find tons of references on the web. About last week's prediction, say SP for example, my preferred count is the purple line. The market could have taken wave-II right away last Monday. In that case, wave-I.4 would be a simple correction. However, the market went flat for 3 more days, and wave-I.4 became a complex correction. Last Thursday's sell-off could be the final kick of an irregular wave-II before wave-III's marching north.

It's hard to answer the question about how to adjust wave count. If one wants to trade EW, at any moment, s/he needs to have a backup plan - that is the alternative count. When the market does not move in favor of one's preferred count, the alternative count may become the preferred one. Remember one thing ... anything can happen. Therefore, trading with EW is a process of constantly thinking. As I mentioned many times, it's just like playing chess with the market. I don't mind to share my view every weekend because I will be happy if readers make money and also share their thoughts with me. More people watch the game (of chess), more thoughtful the wave count would be.
  • #28
  • Dec 11, 2011 10:56am Dec 11, 2011 10:56am
Quote
Thanks for comments. It is very helpful.
I just feel that Thursday's correction is too shallow. It is still possible that we have two legs down. So we may revisit Thursday's low or even go to 1220. I'm wondering why you think that we should go up from here.
...
yupek - Yes, it is possible (and anything is possible). Please see the grey line alternative count. Also I explained that as a micro alternative count in last Thursday's posts. Say, if you have bot SP at Thursday's MOC, now your STP order can be placed 1 point right below last Thursday's low. If the STP gets hit, you don't lose nothing. We don't know if it will happen, but when an opportunity comes, one needs to evaluate if it is worth the risk to bet. Say, if you did not enter the long of SP at Thursday's MOC, when do you want to enter? After breaking out weekly high? Not really a good idea because once it happens, where are you going to place your STP order? It will be the same price (1 point right below last Thursday's low), but your risk will be much higher.
  • #29
  • Dec 11, 2011 12:04pm Dec 11, 2011 12:04pm
Im confused...... it looks you are giving every week a different view..... How can it be of any help or use??
  • #30
  • Dec 11, 2011 12:45pm Dec 11, 2011 12:45pm
very good charts
  • #31
  • Dec 11, 2011 1:20pm Dec 11, 2011 1:20pm
Quoting ixon
very good charts
ixon - Thanks for enjoying reading.
  • #32
  • Dec 11, 2011 1:22pm Dec 11, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting powertrading
Im confused...... it looks you are giving every week a different view..... How can it be of any help or use??
powertrading - Thanks for commenting. The market changes, so our thinking needs to change in response to the market's changes. Maybe ixon can answer you why s/he thinks that my views are good?!
  • #33
  • Dec 11, 2011 1:31pm Dec 11, 2011 1:31pm
I (hi) woch eurusd and i think it will go up. so me and snowrider think that eurusd will go up.
  • #34
  • Dec 17, 2011 5:43pm Dec 17, 2011 5:43pm
12/17/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...7-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #35
  • Dec 18, 2011 1:29pm Dec 18, 2011 1:29pm
Quote
So the basic impression is: we will find a bottom soon (it may have been there, or a little lower than last week's low), and go up to pass the MA 200.
Just wonder why you ignore the possibility to break down from the current big triangle (breaking 1200).
...
yupek - I assume that you are talking about SP. Yes, it could break "the current big triangle" (as I believe that anything is possible). I did not mean to ignore that scenario, but I just did not want to draw a spiderweb on the chart to include all possible scenarios. You might want to ask why I favor those up scenarios over down scenarios? Last week's low is 50% pullback, and 1200 area is 61.8% pullback. There is no reason to assume that the market is weakening and going down before some key fibonacci ratios stop working.
  • #36
  • Dec 18, 2011 11:49pm Dec 18, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting snowrider
10/01/2011 Monthly Charts

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...py-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...ld-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...ur-monthly.png...
So you think gold is heading much lower here based on that chart?
  • #37
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:39am Dec 19, 2011 10:39am
Quoting fxstevyboy
So you think gold is heading much lower here based on that chart?
fxstevyboy - What you saw was the monthly chart that I posted 3 months ago (09/30/2011). Things have changed. Please take a look the daily chart that I posted last weekend (12/17/2011).
  • #38
  • Dec 25, 2011 2:21pm Dec 25, 2011 2:21pm
12/25/2011

Happy Holidays!

Comments are welcome.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...4-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #39
  • Dec 26, 2011 3:35pm Dec 26, 2011 3:35pm
Quote
Quote from ammo:
snow would you do this monthly ,i havent attempted to learn ew,but if this were wave 5,whats the longer /shorter than prev wave rule,or measured move,thanks and merry xmas
ammo - Thanks. Elliott Wave Principle is a very powerful tool. You'd better start learning that if you believe in Natural law. To answer your question, "if this were wave 5", my convention would label it as abcde instead of 12345 because the wave from the low of 2009-03 did not show a healthy impulsive movement. So, say, if we call it abcde, then your question is how high the final segment could go, right? OK, you see the second up leg from 2010-07 1011 to 2011-05 1371 has time span of 10 months and price span of 360. You can make a guess that the max target of the final up leg won't exceed the time A and the price B before a big correction because a rule says that the 3rd wave won't be the shortest. The answer can be measured from the correction of the second up leg, and it will be:
A = 10 months + 2011-10 = 2012-08
B = 360 + 1075 = 1435
  • #40
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:10pm Jan 1, 2012 1:10pm
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