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Open/close cross

  • #121
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:16pm Dec 6, 2011 11:16pm
Quoting jiva34
placed a buy stop AUDUSD just above swing highs for last few days. looking for a breakout and continuation higher.
Based on 1,2,3 pattern.
They can be very powerful, particularly on the higher TFs.

I agree with you on the prospects for AU, many others are waiting to short it but I think it will see 1.04 + before the week's out.

A line chart is excellent for spotting the 123 (or Ms & Ws)

Regards, Paul
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  • #122
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:35am Dec 7, 2011 1:35am
sell order filled just below lows of last few days.
No scaling out. Either stop is hit, or there is a cross in the opposite direction... I may go through a bit of a withdrawal, trying to break this bad habit. But it's now or never.. If this is a win that sure would help.
Was bounced out of the short yesterday with the appearance of the cross up signal. Back in today. Just follow the strategy...
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  • #123
  • Dec 7, 2011 4:15am Dec 7, 2011 4:15am
Quoting jiva34
sell order filled just below lows of last few days.
No scaling out. Either stop is hit, or there is a cross in the opposite direction... I may go through a bit of a withdrawal, trying to break this bad habit. But it's now or never.. If this is a win that sure would help.
Was bounced out of the short yesterday with the appearance of the cross up signal. Back in today. Just follow the strategy...
Hi there

Very interesting system, thanks for sharing and I hope William's MAC is back in action soon.

On the exit, looking at the charts it should be the 21 change of trend red to green or visa versa, triggers an exit? I ask because you mention cross in the above post (5, 5 cross?).

Cheers

Paul
  • #124
  • Dec 7, 2011 5:38am Dec 7, 2011 5:38am
Quoting jiva34
sell order filled just below lows of last few days.
No scaling out. Either stop is hit, or there is a cross in the opposite direction... I may go through a bit of a withdrawal, trying to break this bad habit. But it's now or never.. If this is a win that sure would help.
Was bounced out of the short yesterday with the appearance of the cross up signal. Back in today. Just follow the strategy...
Are you changing your S/L suggestions from the 1st post and not moving to BE and then trailing or are you just not scaling out positions in 3rds. Doing OK so far with your Sys. especially considering that liquidity is drying up as we get closer to the holidays .
Thanks
Always Learning
  • #125
  • Dec 7, 2011 6:31am Dec 7, 2011 6:31am
Quoting JayTrader
Are you changing your S/L suggestions from the 1st post and not moving to BE and then trailing or are you just not scaling out positions in 3rds. Doing OK so far with your Sys. especially considering that liquidity is drying up as we get closer to the holidays .
Thanks
Am getting ready to change the title page.
no scaling, no move to break even. Going cold turkey!!!!
The testing I did on historical data showed me beyond a shadow of a doubt that scaling out and moving to breakeven reduces overall profit significantly. Like almost 3 times less. Although both systems were profitable.
It's just going to take a bit more "nerve" for me to keep everything in the trade. Actually William adds to his position as it moves in the trend. I want to trade like he does. Not there yet. At least I know where I want to go.
This step of letting everything stay in the trade instead of scaling out is a step in that direction.

Lot of people already on vacation. The successful ones are in the Bahamas.
  • #126
  • Dec 7, 2011 7:40am Dec 7, 2011 7:40am
Quoting jiva34
sell order filled just below lows of last few days.
No scaling out. Either stop is hit, or there is a cross in the opposite direction... I may go through a bit of a withdrawal, trying to break this bad habit. But it's now or never.. If this is a win that sure would help.
Was bounced out of the short yesterday with the appearance of the cross up signal. Back in today. Just follow the strategy...
Hi Jiva,

I was following you on one of your previous threads. I know how is your effort and I like this style as well. Therefore I'm here w/ you again. Not much time right now, just small remark to this trade - be aware of the strong support (major line 1.0000, also 200 EMA on your chart, see how price has respected that level) one of my golden rules -> never buy/sell against S/R.

Maybe you would like to check also thread from ChantalB: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=298439 and maybe especially trading template from Porfirio member. I'm trying to pick up the best from your thread and Chantal's thread.

Cheers and green pips )
Milan
  • #127
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:22am Dec 7, 2011 8:22am
Quoting jiva34
sell order filled just below lows of last few days.
No scaling out. Either stop is hit, or there is a cross in the opposite direction... I may go through a bit of a withdrawal, trying to break this bad habit. But it's now or never.. If this is a win that sure would help.
Was bounced out of the short yesterday with the appearance of the cross up signal. Back in today. Just follow the strategy...
I would like to see a clear breakout of the 200 MA before selling into that.

I have a question. When to add? Both 21 and 5.5 without giving a reversal signal but with price holding it up?

EDIT: EG just hit the stop loss. You were right about the poor trending capacity of that pair. Damn hindsight haha.
  • #128
  • Edited 3:47pm Dec 7, 2011 2:29pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting kapybara
Hi Jiva,

, just small remark to this trade - be aware of the strong support (major line 1.0000, also 200 EMA on your chart, see how price has respected that level) one of my golden rules -> never buy/sell against S/R.
Milan
Since this method is a trend and momentum method S/R is not relevent to the entry and exit rules. While it is true support may dominate and price might bounce the loss will be small and jiva will get a reversal signal fairly soon at which time she will reverse her position and catch the next wave, EOD..(End Of Disscussion)...... If you want to trade S/R that is fine but please keep those opinions out of this thread. Thanks for your cooperation.
  • #129
  • Dec 7, 2011 4:40pm Dec 7, 2011 4:40pm
Hi

This indi might be of use with the 123 entries.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=326305

Cheers

Paul
  • #130
  • Dec 7, 2011 5:14pm Dec 7, 2011 5:14pm
Both USDCHF and USDJPY lost their confirmation, so I closed them for a total loss of 0.5%.

Buy on AUDUSD and GBPUSD.
  • #131
  • Dec 7, 2011 6:02pm Dec 7, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting Trucomallica
Both USDCHF and USDJPY lost their confirmation, so I closed them for a total loss of 0.5%.
What do you mean by lost confirmation? According to my chart the 5/5 on usd chf is still showing buy. I thought the exit signal is when they cross ? Or maybe I dont have the chart set up right.
  • #132
  • Dec 7, 2011 6:09pm Dec 7, 2011 6:09pm
In my charts the 21 MA on USDCHF turned bearish, and on the UJ there is a bearish cross of the 5.5. I'm using Alpari by the way.
  • #133
  • Dec 7, 2011 10:16pm Dec 7, 2011 10:16pm
I'm going to keep an eye out for possible entries but I want to stay light in the market until after the new year.
UJ and USDCHF are 2 pairs that I try to avoid. They are both supposedly "safe-haven" currencies pitted against each other. More going on between other currency pairs. Ones that pit a "safe-haven" with a "risk-on". Like USDCAD, AUDUSD, EURUSD etc.
Like there is such a thing as a "safe-haven" these days. Ya sure...
BOJ and SNB can enter the market at any time and purposefully shake traders out.
Just how I tend to look at things...
  • #134
  • Dec 8, 2011 5:38am Dec 8, 2011 5:38am
buy stop gu filled.
Need to sharpen up in using 1,2,3...
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  • #135
  • Dec 8, 2011 6:23am Dec 8, 2011 6:23am
Quoting batemap
Hi

This indi might be of use with the 123 entries.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=326305

Cheers

Paul
Cheers Paul will have a look at that one.

Regards, Paul.
  • #136
  • Dec 8, 2011 6:54am Dec 8, 2011 6:54am
3 positions open...
tried to look for 1,2,3.... along with the 21 and 5,5 cross...
used limit orders....
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  • #137
  • Dec 8, 2011 1:43pm Dec 8, 2011 1:43pm
William says to enter every signal because any one of them could be the next big trend and just take the losses. the gains will far outweigh any losses.
With my old bad habit of scaling I would have been bounced out of all 3 trades but would have reach +1/2 ATR for 1/3 plus 1 ATR for 2/3's of all 3 pairs and then the remaining 1/3 would have stopped out for +5 each. All profits and out of the market. By not scaling I'm trying to catch a really big move and willing to accept a series of losses if necessary.
This is new to me and not easy for me to do.
I can't help comparing the 2 exit strategies and how I would have avoided the present loss and negative unrealized of the present situation.
Unless I see something really compelling I may just not enter any more trades until after New Years.
Lost USDCAD. GU and AU still hanging in by a thread.
I guess I need to catch a really big move to get over the jitters.
When in doubt, Don't...
and I have my doubts this time of year.
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  • #138
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:04pm Dec 8, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting jiva34
William says to enter every signal because any one of them could be the next big trend and just take the losses. the gains will far outweigh any losses.
Unless I see something really compelling I may just not enter any more trades until after New Years.
Don't do that, man. William is right. I remember an interview to Mark Douglas, saying that in a string of trades, with a 50% chance of success, you can have a lot of loosing trades, but you must take every opportunity
according to your rules, because you never know when the big trade is coming. The rules for this system are sound, it's just that this week has been really quiet.
  • #139
  • Dec 8, 2011 2:22pm Dec 8, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting Trucomallica
Don't do that, man. William is right. I remember an interview to Mark Douglas, saying that in a string of trades, with a 50% chance of success, you can have a lot of loosing trades, but you must take every opportunity
according to your rules, because you never know when the big trade is coming. The rules for this system are sound, it's just that this week has been really quiet.
This the really hard part. Had a string of super winners first. But i was doing that dumb scaling out thing and so I didn't get to store up as many gains I could have. Now the string of losses is underway.

Getting the psychology under control is the killer.

Perhaps the way I can ease into this, is to only trade certain pairs. There won't be as many trades (at first) but the probabilities will stay the same for win loss. And I can keep my "powder dry".

William trades pretty much anything and everything and makes out like a bandit. Not there yet.

Thanks for the reinforcement. This is a major hurdle.

Maybe just trade EU, GU, AU like that. Maybe just EU.
  • #140
  • Dec 8, 2011 4:41pm Dec 8, 2011 4:41pm
Probably lose all three. GU still hanging on. AU bit the dust..
William would have to be pretty much off line until he can get a new computer system going.
Necessity dictates I only consider trading the one pair for any new trades. EU.
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