Myth Buster: 90-95% of traders cannot survive in trading | Forex Factory

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Myth Buster: 90-95% of traders cannot survive in trading

  • Poll

  • How many years of trading experience do you have?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:43pm Dec 6, 2011 10:50am | Edited 5:43pm
The purpose of this poll is to measure the survival rate of traders quantitatively. The only thing that you are required to do is to poll your years of trading experience (In regardless of financial instrument. e.g stocks, futures, commodities) in real money account. I will do the final math and reveal my hypothesis of this exercise once we got enough sample size (Says 500-1000 polls).

I urge those who read this thread to participate in the poll. It takes you less than 5sec to submit your vote and please note that your vote will be remain private and confidential. Thank you.

Remark: I understand that the poll does not look like relevant to the myth but there is a reason why I put such a question. I will explain the logic & hypothesis later.
  • #2
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:16am Dec 6, 2011 11:16am
hmm.. interesting! but aren't you interested in profitability? I know few guys who still try to trade after 10 years of losing...

I mean, experience in years doesn't provide you any good data... just how long people been trading. Though, you cant see the quality of their trading. hm?
  • #3
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:17am Dec 6, 2011 11:17am
Quoting arsa
hmm.. interesting! but aren't you interested in profitability? I know few guys who still try to trade after 10 years of losing...

I mean, experience in years doesn't provide you any good data... just how long people been trading. Though, you cant see the quality of their trading. hm?
Ops sorry...Please refer to the remark on my 1st post.
  • #4
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:23am Dec 6, 2011 11:23am
Quoting ForexQuant
The purpose of this poll is to measure the survival rate of traders. The only thing that you are required to do is to poll your years of trading experience (In regardless of financial instrument) in real money account. I will do the final math and reveal my hypothesis of this exercise once we got enough sample size (Says 500-1000 polls).

I urge those who read this thread to participate in the poll. It takes you less than 5sec to submit your vote and please note that your vote will be remain private and confidential. Thank you.

Remark: I understand...
Fun idea! But don't you think the data will be too skewed? FF most populated segment would most likely be less than 1-2 years of trading-experience.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #5
  • Dec 6, 2011 11:40am Dec 6, 2011 11:40am
Quoting aediaz1
Fun idea! But don't you think the data will be too skewed? FF most populated segment would most likely be less than 1-2 years of trading-experience.
That is why I need every new and experienced traders to vote. I know that there are still tons of experienced traders lurking around FF.

This could be the 1st quantitative exercise to check the myth. Our FF community will appreciate it if you could help spread the words and vote! Your vote is important!
  • #6
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:21pm Dec 6, 2011 12:21pm
Ha ha, you said you would do it, now here it is.

Another thing I've thought about which may or may not be relevant to your data, is that online trading is still so new. As far as your poll goes, the relevance is obvious.

But I believe as more and more people learn about online trading and get involved, we're going to see a whole new class of wealth, similar to the sudden 'dot com' class. In coming years, as more and more talented and hard working people get involved, I think this percentage of successes will go up from the notorious 5% to possibly as high 20%; and 10 or 15 years from now, people who previously didn't have easy access to the markets, will have made their fortunes right from home.
  • #7
  • Edited 12:54pm Dec 6, 2011 12:33pm | Edited 12:54pm
Quoting Rob Mondave
Ha ha, you said you would do it, now here it is.

Another thing I've thought about which may or may not be relevant to your data, is that online trading is still so new. As far as your poll goes, the relevance is obvious.

But I believe as more and more people learn about online trading and get involved, we're going to see a whole new class of wealth, similar to the sudden 'dot com' class. In coming years, as more and more talented and hard working people get involved, I think this percentage of successes will go up from the notorious 5% to...
Well I still remember the old day that I made my orders through phone. You sound like trading is a new toy for tech savvy youngster. And I also believe some of the experienced traders here used to draw their chart on paper.

In some cases I dont even believe what i think, I only believe numbers.

Btw dont you know that it doesnt really need to be right about making a hypothesis? There is no such thing as making it right the 1st time in real world. I or someone else can still make a better hypothesis if we can learn from our mistake.

Anyway thanks for your opinion and I hope you have voted.
  • #8
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:48pm Dec 6, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting ForexQuant
Well I still remember the old day that I made my orders through phone. You sounds like trading is a new toy for tech savvy youngster. And I also believe some of the experienced traders here used to draw their chart on paper.
Yep, you're right! Back in the early 90's I was calling Schwab and placing orders via phone, and keeping charts on graph paper with lightly drawn pencil lines for trends, etc. Point and figure charts too!
  • #9
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:48pm Dec 6, 2011 12:48pm
Honestly, Any FF members here used to draw their chart on paper before pc era? I really admire your patience in doing that everyday.
  • #10
  • Dec 6, 2011 12:51pm Dec 6, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting capitalist88
Yep, you're right! Back in the early 90's I was calling Schwab and placing orders via phone, and keeping charts on graph paper with lightly drawn pencil lines for trends, etc. Point and figure charts too!
Wow you are my hero!
  • #11
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:26pm Dec 6, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting capitalist88
Yep, you're right! Back in the early 90's I was calling Schwab and placing orders via phone, and keeping charts on graph paper with lightly drawn pencil lines for trends, etc. Point and figure charts too!
Quoting ForexQuant
Wow you are my hero!
Yeah, same here! I've always admired tape readers, too.
  • #12
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:29pm Dec 6, 2011 1:29pm
While I am not able to vote on the poll, I have been trading real money for 22 years. Not always as a fulltime trader until the last 8 years.
  • #13
  • Dec 6, 2011 1:32pm Dec 6, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting ForexQuant
Well I still remember the old day that I made my orders through phone. You sound like trading is a new toy for tech savvy youngster. And I also believe some of the experienced traders here used to draw their chart on paper.

In some cases I dont even believe what i think, I only believe numbers.

Btw dont you know that it doesnt really need to be right about making a hypothesis? There is no such thing as making it right the 1st time in real world. I or someone else can still make a better hypothesis if we can learn from our mistake.

Anyway...
I know it's not a new toy, but look at the huge number of retailers involved now, versus 20 years ago. It's more accessible. It may well be that a generation ago, someone who had the ability to make a killing in the markets didn't know how to get in, but now it's just so easy to 'join up'.
  • #14
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:30pm Dec 6, 2011 2:30pm
This is a poor latitudinal study. If you want your answer, you need a longitudinal study.

There are numerous reasons why there are ton of traders in the 1-5 and 6-10 range that bias your study, e.g more accessibility
  • #15
  • Dec 6, 2011 4:59pm Dec 6, 2011 4:59pm
I dont know why you guys think so but I think stock market, futures, commodities market etc do not get popular only since last 10 years. They were long exist and popular among retailers before retail forex kick in.

While many young traders may only have trading experience in forex only, please do not forget that many experienced traders had or still traded other markets too. I traded stock market when I began my trading career but only moved my focus to forex in last 3-4 years.

Yes I agree that there could be some other reasons that bias the study. However is it true that ease of accessibility bring more people to trading arena? No, it is money. Everyone loves money, especially "easy" money and it did not change since the beginning of the capitalism. If accessibility is the reason that bring more people to trading arena then who are the crowds that fed the invisible hand in stock market in last hundred year? who are the one that fed the conventional bucket shop?

IMHO, what really change in pc & internet era is the age of 1st trading is getting younger. The popularity of retail forex bring even more youngsters because of low entry barriers.

Anyway please just continue with the votes. Even if I am wrong with my hypothesis we still can get some useful info for future study.

Thank you for your vote and participant in the discussion.
  • #16
  • Edited 5:45pm Dec 6, 2011 5:17pm | Edited 5:45pm
I saw some reputable old members lurking around this thread. Your vote is important to us. I will appreciate it if you have voted and share some stories pertaining to our discussion if you dont mind.

Thank you.
  • #17
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:06pm Dec 6, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting arsa
I know few guys who still try to trade after 10 years of losing...

I mean, experience in years doesn't provide you any good data... just how long people been trading. Though, you cant see the quality of their trading. hm?
Adjustors to the agony of losing:

The opportunity to lose --
Trade frequency,
leverage,
hours of operation,
refunding

and the motivation to get one's money's worth from various expensive toys --
platform, indicators, news services
  • #18
  • Dec 6, 2011 7:49pm Dec 6, 2011 7:49pm
The amount of time you've been trading doesn't measure profitability. "Surviving" can simply mean you're depositing more and more money into your account over the span of a decade or longer which renders this poll useless as it fails to account for things like that.


Or am I missing something here? If so, please go in to more detail with your hypothesis.

  • #19
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:00pm Dec 6, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting DasPips
The amount of time you've been trading doesn't measure profitability. "Surviving" can simply mean you're depositing more and more money into your account over the span of a decade or longer which renders this poll useless as it fails to account for things like that.


Or am I missing something here? If so, please go in to more detail with your hypothesis.

Yes the amount of time you've been trading doesn't measure profitability. Everyone else knows that, me too.

I will go detail once we have enough votes.
  • #20
  • Dec 7, 2011 1:05am Dec 7, 2011 1:05am
Years experience can't guarantee trader can survive in trading.
the one that never learn in his whole life will never success.
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
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