Trading the BEST Indicator (sarcasm)

This thread here is to discuss trading the BEST Indicator you can find out there:

 

1. - Your Head

My trading is built on few fundamentals:

 

1. Charts don't create charts
2. Fundamentals move markets
3. Every bankster has a news feed (usually Reuters)
4. Technicals work if if they line up with fundamental sentiment at this exact moment
5. New trends begin before old ones finish

EDIT: Here I'll do some real trading with live market conditions. Hopefully there will be people who share the same mindset. So far not so many people seem to be interested.. I should have called this thread "Super 15 EMA and Stochastic divergence 95% 1:10 RR System". And EA would be even better .. haha

My biggest kudos go to FF character BillyRayValentine and his website.

First post will be updated from time to time. If you want to contribute within above mentioned trading framework - you are welcome.

Some quality information:

News:
- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies
- http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies
- http://www.marketwatch.com/

Market depth:
- Market News International

Squak:
- www.talking-forex.com

EU debt issuance:
- http://europa.eu/efc/sub_committee/e...9/index_en.htm (kudos to Indiana_Pips)

I'll start out with the analysis of my current euro trade.

Fundamental background:

Bearish on Euro. Why? Euro Rate cut + lately better US data. Especially the last NFP data... moved the market nicely as you can see on the chart.

Today. EU summit, all the world wants EU to survive so bullish outlook for today. Any positive notes from summit will be taken as EU driving force to the upside.

Where to enter? The Most frequently asked question here.. lol. Lets look at the chart and find heavy S/R.. 1.3420/25 looked good at the moment I entered the trade and still does...

What reinforces this level to me is this data:

$1.3600/15 Medium offers/Tech $1.3615 Nov 18 high
$1.3570 Strong offers/Tech $1.3568 Nov22 high
$1.3550 Strong offers on approach
$1.3515 Stops
$1.3500/10 Medium offers
$1.3480/85 Medium offers
$1.3461 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3441
$1.3433 ***Current mkt rate 1200GMT Monday
$1.3420 Medium demand/Pullback lows
$1.3400/390 Minor demand/Stops
$1.3375 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3363 Friday lows
$1.3340 Medium demand on approach/$1.3341 61.8% $1.3212/1.3550
$1.3315/10 Medium demand/Stops



Targets are dynamic today since the outcome of EU summit is unknown. Though, we are in an uptrend therefore recent highs have to be broken in classical definition of a trend... probably you know that crap... higher highs and higher lows.. if not you need to do some serious homework.

Lets see how it plays out.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/

EU and UK. Why do they have pretty good correlation?

1st they are mostly traded against usd.
2nd Geographical location
3rd UK is in EU... though UK has the pound and it makes so fun for us to trade .. chi chin...

Given these fundamentals.. current gbpusd trade.. also long.. why do you think long? Look at the previous 2 posts..

and in no particular order...

4th because, from what little the UK does export a significant part of it goes to EU countries.

and 5th because the debt and security underwriting between all the different EU financial institutions is heavily mixed with the UK financial institutions. So if an EU financial company or country is in trouble then it will be bad for the UK finance companies too...

hell they have all vouched for each others debts so that they could all borrow more and that is the nuts of the financial problem.

If you made some pips in the last few minutes.. thank Sarkozy

Closed eur at 1.3476... It might go further but you don't need all the pips out there.. just some.

Yeeey! First comments from MaxDoom. Good to hear some wise facts here

target for the cable is 57 handle... which will be protected because:

FX: Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3350, $1.3365, $1.3400, $1.3465, $1.3470, $1.3480,
$1.3500
* Dollar-yen; Y77.60, Y77.95, Y78.00, Y78.05
* Euro-yen; Y103.50
* Cable: $1.5700, $1.5945, $1.5950
* Aussie; $1.0000, $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250(large), $1.0300, $1.0400,
$1.0450, $1.0465
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.3050
* Euro-Auussie; A$1.3320


So I'll be glad to close it 10-20 pips before that handle

and here the end of cable trade.. closed at 5688. Price is creating a cluster/fractal or whatever you might call it.

Also ISM PMI is coming out in 10 min..

good call, the strike prices are often like magnets if only for a few minutes at expiry

MaxDoom,

I feel like you should post more so I can learn something

Appreciate your valuable input!

lost few pips on premature short on cable around 5690..

Though got my sh*t together and used my last bullet for today for another short.. Price reached 5705/10 - level full of order. Then broke the 5710 level.. cleared some precious stops and now its retracing.

I'm short from 5712.. having a target 5670 in mind.

closed short gbpusd at 5688. My patience is running out for today.. lol. And its against the market sentiment.. lets not be greedy.

EDIT to the first post.

Here I'll do some real trading in live market conditions. Hopefully there will be people who share the same mindset. So far not so many people seem to be interested.. I should have called this thread "Super 15 EMA and Stochastic divergence 95% 1:10 Risk-Reward System". And EA would be even better .. LOL

Indeed

Keep going Arsa, nice thread.

December 6th.. 2011

Here's how I decide on daily market sentiment:

Reuters
BloomBerg
Marketwatch

Reuters and Bloomberg

and Marketwatch