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Open/close cross

  • #101
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:37pm Dec 5, 2011 12:37pm
what's his risk management? the same as yours?
  • #102
  • Dec 5, 2011 12:51pm Dec 5, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting Trucomallica
what's his risk management? the same as yours?
>>>the stop at 1ATR and when the prices move 2ATR can move stop to BE +5. And can trail at 2 ATR. IF the trade is good the exit will be when there is an opposite signal.<<<

I don't know his exact % risk. But he's sane. And manages risk very well. Whatever his % is.

He says for me to trade 2% is good.
  • #103
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:05pm Dec 5, 2011 2:05pm
After comparing how the same entries would have resulted by using the 2 different exit strategies I found that for 1 year the strategy that did not use scaling out did much better. (surprise surprise)
Both strategies had very few losses and the losses that were there were very small.
the problem with scaling out is that by moving the stop to break even after 1/2 ATR several very large trends were missed because of getting stopped out prematurely.
also the trends that were captured using the scaling out only benefited by the amount of 1/3 of the initial position.
so those two things reduced the overall gain for the period.
Both systems were profitable. But by not scaling out the profit was considerably more.
Using a very crude method, by marking trades on the chart,
Scaling out exit gathered total pips 6,446 for the year
Not scaling out total pips 13,318 for the year
Since there were very few losses for either system. the difference was due entirely to not capturing the big moves by scaling out.
I think I may be cured.............................................
The screen shot shows the problem.
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  • #104
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:03pm Dec 5, 2011 3:03pm
that's using only one pair, right? looks really good.

i started a demo yesterday, and i'm on a buy signal on EG, loosing 0.5% of the balance at the moment hahaha. let's see what happens.

have you tried looking at correlations between pairs for diversification?
  • #105
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:30pm Dec 5, 2011 3:30pm
Quoting Trucomallica
that's using only one pair, right? looks really good.

i started a demo yesterday, and i'm on a buy signal on EG, loosing 0.5% of the balance at the moment hahaha. let's see what happens.

have you tried looking at correlations between pairs for diversification?
EG can be so choppy. I've never had much lucky with it, USDCHF, and CHFJPY have been difficult too.
  • #106
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:09pm Dec 5, 2011 5:09pm
good to know, man

i'm taking the buy signal un UJ with 1% risk.
  • #107
  • Dec 5, 2011 8:47pm Dec 5, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting jiva34
He insists on not scaling anything out. just keep the stop at 1ATR and when the prices move 2ATR can move stop to BE +5. And can trail at 2 ATR. IF the trade is good the exit will be when there is an opposite signal. He doesn't scale out he adds to his position on pullbacks.
Hi jiva,

This is a particularly interesting system for me, thanks for sharing.

I wondered why you replaced the original open/close cross of the 21 LWMA with a cross of the two 5 MAs ? It seems quite a departure from the original method.

I was also going to ask about adding to your positions which is where the really good profit will come from using this system but I see you have been checking and testing these yourself. Have you (or William) determined the best method of detecting a pullback and adding on?

The equity curve you posted is truly inspiring, great to see

Regards, Paul.
  • #108
  • Dec 5, 2011 10:54pm Dec 5, 2011 10:54pm
Quoting Trucomallica
good to know, man

i'm taking the buy signal un UJ with 1% risk.
Tempted to take that one myself. But BOJ and SNB scare me away. I guess that's what they want to scare traders from trading their currencies. I got lucky on the last BOJ intervention and rode EURJPY for over 300 pips while I was sleeping. Nice surprise to wake up to. But of course I was on the "right side" of the trade.
Anything with a CHF or a JPY makes me hesitate.
Just from the chart long UJ at this point looks good.
  • #109
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:08pm Dec 5, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting pah
Hi jiva,

This is a particularly interesting system for me, thanks for sharing.

I wondered why you replaced the original open/close cross of the 21 LWMA with a cross of the two 5 MAs ? It seems quite a departure from the original method.

I was also going to ask about adding to your positions which is where the really good profit will come from using this system but I see you have been checking and testing these yourself. Have you (or William) determined the best method of detecting a pullback and adding on?

The equity curve you posted is truly...
5,5 with a 21lsma trend filter is better. the 21 open close was too slow.

WM is an accomplished trader. I mean good!!! Very good!! I want to trade like he does. He has it down.
But I am having to unlearn a bunch of crap.
The purpose of the thread is to share what I am learning and at least as important if not even more so, unlearning!. It helps me to document my trading. And it may help someone else. Most traders simply lose all their money and are forced to quit.
Only a few make it, but when they do they make it big.

Story about the 2 sitar students. Sitar is a difficult instrument to learn to play.
The sitar master accepted 2 students. One had been playing sitar for several years and the other was brand new. He charged the experienced student $1000, and new student $200.
Asked why the difference and especially since one student already had so much experience.
He commented because it will be 5 times more work. He will have to unlearn all the stuff he thinks he knows before I can teach him.
To a large degree that's me. The "experienced" student.
(Wm isn't charging anything, although he certainly could. he's just a great person).

  • #110
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:11pm Dec 5, 2011 11:11pm
Quoting Trucomallica
good to know, man

i'm taking the buy signal un UJ with 1% risk.
Trades are taken when the new candle starts to form. So basically once a day. Different gmt's means we probably will have different day candles. But should be close enough.
  • #111
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:26pm Dec 5, 2011 11:26pm
Closed everything. Opposite signals appeared on my pairs. Small net loss. Don't see anything I want to trade today.
Many of the pairs have signals that go against the trend.
I'll look for the 21 to turn and a reversal
or for a signal to appear that goes with the 21 and a continuation.
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  • #112
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:34pm Dec 5, 2011 11:34pm
Quoting pah
Hi jiva,

This is a particularly interesting system for me, thanks for sharing.

I wondered why you replaced the original open/close cross of the 21 LWMA with a cross of the two 5 MAs ? It seems quite a departure from the original method.

I was also going to ask about adding to your positions which is where the really good profit will come from using this system but I see you have been checking and testing these yourself. Have you (or William) determined the best method of detecting a pullback and adding on?

The equity curve you posted is truly...
method for pullback and adding on.
We'll get to that.
He uses 1,2,3 method.
Essential reading... pdf in zip....
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 123 system.zip   1.0 MB | 674 downloads
  • #113
  • Dec 5, 2011 11:50pm Dec 5, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting jiva34
method for pullback and adding on.
We'll get to that.
He uses 1,2,3 method.
Essential reading... pdf in zip....
Thanks Jiva,

I'll have a look at that.

My only observation when using the 5,5 cross and 21 for trend is that you see more crosses but many of those are false signals. You still need to wait for the trend to change the direction of the 21 ma.

I'm also wondering if they might lead to premature closure (due to opposite signal) of the existing trade(s) if you decide to 'anticipate' the direction of the 21 ma a little too soon.

Thanks for the read. I've almost finished the way of turtle. Nothing like keeping it simple

Regards, Paul.
  • #114
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:15am Dec 6, 2011 5:15am
Hi

Does anybody know which numbers correspond to which method of moving averages in the "MA Alert" and "AllMoving Averages" indicators?
Regards
  • #115
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:33am Dec 6, 2011 5:33am
Quoting howard
Hi

Does anybody know which numbers correspond to which method of moving averages in the "MA Alert" and "AllMoving Averages" indicators?
All Averages Ma_Method possibilities:
// List of MAs:
// MA_Method= 0: SMA - Simple Moving Average
// MA_Method= 1: EMA - Exponential Moving Average
// MA_Method= 2: Wilder - Wilder Exponential Moving Average
// MA_Method= 3: LWMA - Linear Weighted Moving Average
// MA_Method= 4: SineWMA - Sine Weighted Moving Average
// MA_Method= 5: TriMA - Triangular Moving Average
// MA_Method= 6: LSMA - Least Square Moving Average (or EPMA, Linear Regression Line)
// MA_Method= 7: SMMA - Smoothed Moving Average
// MA_Method= 8: HMA - Hull Moving Average by Alan Hull
// MA_Method= 9: ZeroLagEMA - Zero-Lag Exponential Moving Average
// MA_Method=10: DEMA - Double Exponential Moving Average by Patrick Mulloy
// MA_Method=11: T3 - T3 by T.Tillson
// MA_Method=12: ITrend - Instantaneous Trendline by J.Ehlers
// MA_Method=13: Median - Moving Median
// MA_Method=14: GeoMean - Geometric Mean
// MA_Method=15: REMA - Regularized EMA by Chris Satchwell
// MA_Method=16: ILRS - Integral of Linear Regression Slope
// MA_Method=17: IE/2 - Combination of LSMA and ILRS

ma ribbonalert is the same as mt4 standard moving average codes. 0=simple,1=exponential,2=smoothed,3=linear weighted
  • #116
  • Dec 6, 2011 6:51am Dec 6, 2011 6:51am
Quoting jiva34
Trades are taken when the new candle starts to form. So basically once a day. Different gmt's means we probably will have different day candles. But should be close enough.
Of course. To me the bar closes at 8 PM because I live in Chile and I'm using an Alpari account

You're right about the intervention by banks, that's why I'm not buying JPY and CHF, only selling
  • #117
  • Dec 6, 2011 5:32pm Dec 6, 2011 5:32pm
New buy signal on USDCHF, I'm taking it with 1% risk, now sitting on 3% total risk.
  • #118
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:29pm Dec 6, 2011 10:29pm
Quoting Trucomallica
New buy signal on USDCHF, I'm taking it with 1% risk, now sitting on 3% total risk.
how's the 21 look on USDCHF? I don't see a clear confirmation of trend there.
is this demo or live?
  • #119
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:47pm Dec 6, 2011 10:47pm
Both 21 an 5.5 turned bullish at the close. It's a demo accunt
  • #120
  • Dec 6, 2011 10:49pm Dec 6, 2011 10:49pm
placed a buy stop AUDUSD just above swing highs for last few days. looking for a breakout and continuation higher.
Based on 1,2,3 pattern.
Just learning this stuff so maybe I haven't got it quite right yet. Wm is offline, his Mac is acting up. Needs a new fan or something...
There's a slight positive cross although the new arrow hasn't appeared yet, for this gmt which is 0 gmt, that'll be in about 10 minutes.
.5% for the position...
Do not plan on scaling out anymore. Ever again..
It'll be a little rough for me to get used. But from the testing I've done in the long run not scaling out is much better. this way I can catch a big move with a full position, and maybe even add more on pullbacks using the 1,2,3. Rather than ride a big move with only 1/3 of the position left on it. this should more than make up for any losses on bad entries.
Once I accept that this strategy is a winner then I need to stay with it. and it is a winner.
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