Substation

The purpose of this thread is to post my thoughts on incubating trading methods and modifications that i may or may not used in the future. To compile ideas and links in one place that i can go from time to time to draw upon. No indicators. Approaches encompass both fundamentals and technicals from 1minute scalping to monthly setups.

99% or more will probably be junk as most things are.

On the sidenote: just started learning EA programming to help with testing. Forex tester is good for forward testing, so to speak.

based on some private back and forth i have been having with regards to tony112 system. although my modifications works fine....i prefer the gains to be more than 10R or 9R.

i am thinking of experimenting along the lines of:

-- Just using the NY open(my observations shows that NY open tends to reverse EURO open). yes, i know, i need statistical data, and this is why i started learning EA programming--if you want something done, you have to do it yourself. This reversal of EURO trading session will give me a directional bias = which is something that is missing in tony112 system(but i tried to make up for by grafting hector LOB parameters).

-- After 12pm or so, most action in the NYopen crawls to a stall. This provides a TIME constraint on TP. Another TP factor = aim for +40 pips or +50pips. Roughly half of the ADR of 100 of EUR/USD.

-- Trade with the higher daily trend. At all times.

-- Watch out for interfering TL from higher TF; S/R levels, etc.

--Entry time frame: 8am to 10am. Enter at confluence + 1 pips move in your expected direction. Use SL as -3 pips. B/E trade at +2 pips. Spread cannot be more than 1.2 pips. Option #2: Forget confluence, enter at +1 pips move in your expected direction...all other entry parameters applies. Option #3: enter at BPC or marobozu breakout in expected direction, all other parameters applies. Perhaps, i can use marobozu + M.R concept for entry.

-- win rate: up in the air. Fequency? up in the air. Still needs to do testing. r/r = 16R to 13R. (at least a step above 10R). Optimal r/r? up in the air.

My interest has mostly been in the use of fundamentals to generate longterm outlook on the market. But, this post by knoholygrail introduce a more sharp use of fundamentals as an intraday weapon. Take a gander:

Good Morning

I just found this thread earlier this morning and I have read many of the posts here in the last hour or so. To answer to my titleof my post what happens around 2:00 AM EST or GMT + 5 for me is the start of my trading day. I am a full time currency trader that trades off fundamentals and technicals.

I suggest you will see certain pattens everyday that repeat in forex with some exceptions. It has to do first of all with the end of the Asia session which usually gets going around 7:00 PM EST as different time zones kick in and it is in full bloom by 10:00 PM EST.

Things have settled down by 11:00 PM EST and then there is usually not much activity until the time frame you refer to.

2:00 AM EST is when I wake up and start my trading day. We start to get the retail trader's from Europe coming on board. The bank trader's and currency houses start coming into work.

Then at 3:00 AM the FTSE and the DAX and the other's open for trading. There is news out overnight from the various newspapers and of course the Dow futures are showing a direction at that time.

As orders get filled by the bigger players and news is filtered in as the open of trading starts at 3:00 AM EST and if there is new fundamental facts then the stock markets react accordingly. As the money moves in and out of the stock markets they flow into other asset classes such as Gold, Oil and the various European Bonds. The money flow is what moves the charts along with support and resistance levels being factored in.

This happens again at about 7:00 AM EST at the start of the markets opening in North America.

There is the morning newspapers, the digesting of the data out of Europe overnight and of course the talking heads on CNBC along with all the experts. (Joke)

Then at 8:30 AM EST there is data releases in the USA and Canada and the tone is set for the day.

The markets start at 9:30 AM EST and as money flows into and out of the Dow, SP500 it goes elsewhere as well into Gold, Oil, US Bonds and this gets extreme if we have a Risk on or Risk off day.

If the Dow doesgo down on Monday another 300 points of course I also include the SP500, the money usually leaves EUR/USD and if there are margin calls and other factors and Gold gets sold as well. This might happen as US DX gets stronger Gold might react accordingly.

The money then flows into US Dollars and then the only Safe Place (Not For Much Longer) the US Bonds. I watch the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the price of the US Bonds go up with the parking of money then the Yields go down.

That is the opposite of what is happening in Italy, Germany and other PIIGS at the moment as their Bunds or whatever sell off the money goes to the safety of US Bonds.

The charts are always moved from the money flow. You can confirm this for yourself by watching the money flow yourself. I never trade without having CNBC in front of me or any similar source of information that shows me the price of Gold, Oil, US Bonds (In North America Session) an the other currencies such as EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF.

USD/CAD moves depending on price of Gold, Oil, The markets move USD/CAD with Risk On or Off and of course the strength of the DX which is 57.6 % made up of EUR/USD.

I hope this post proves useful and this upcoming week might be some week with all the new data coming out including NFP on Friday along with the MESS in Europe.

Personally, i consider most fundamental posts by

knoholygrail

lumesh

bug

piptrapper

and their links of references to be totally worth it.