123PatternsV6 revisited | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Inside Bar Trading Revisited 871 replies

123patternsv6 no longer works on MT4 - updated version? 3 replies

News straddling with Amazing EA, revisited 11 replies

Newcomb’s paradox revisited? (Trading context) 2 replies

Attachments: 123PatternsV6 revisited
Exit Attachments

123PatternsV6 revisited

  • #121
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:15pm Nov 30, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting robdee

Sell zones and buy zones are well described in this thread. That is how I find and enter a trade. It is also becoming clear to me that the 123-break is most reliable during times when there is greater than average liquidity.

This thread is pretty wide open in terms of developing the art of 123 pattern analysis. If you know some technique that improves our ability to make profitable trading decisions (and it's not some other custom indicator or EA) then you're welcome to post it here.

Robdee
As mentioned follow D trend, could use above/below its 8 rsi 50 level or right side of fozzy cross or whatever D filter you use to determine higher TF trend.

Then look for trades at your buy sell zones that have a candle closing through 8 lwma in direction of higher TF trend.

Very sorry if you are anti the indi's but the concept is solid.
  • #122
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:32pm Nov 30, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting Vantage
Very sorry if you are anti the indi's but the concept is solid.
Welcome Vantage, thanks for your input. You have a broad perspective on many elements of analysis which is valuable to consider in the context of this thread. I will have to go through your posts carefully step by step to evaluate where I can incorporate and then reply in more detail.

I am not against (anti) any indicators built-in to MT4. I am against the many different custom indicators and EAs available that would side-track this thread.

I have only made brief comments about how I evaluate big picture (Daily trend). The focus so far has been basic interpretation of 123 patterns with fibonacci projections. I am trying to introduce as few variables as possible into the decision making process.

Thanks again Vantage, your insights are always appreciated.

Robdee
  • #123
  • Nov 30, 2011 12:43pm Nov 30, 2011 12:43pm
EURUSD
London Open big volume did not break first bearish target, this was good evidence of bullish support.
Bulls reacted to any price action below 50 fibo.
Fed surprise announcement produced 200 pip bullish candle.
Bears defense of 1.34 failed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-2011-11-30-m5-fednews.gif Size: 17 KB


That is my interpretation of what happened today.
I missed the bullish move because I kept thinking like a euro bear.
  • #124
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:28pm Nov 30, 2011 2:28pm
Fibonacci retracement best!!!

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/6252/m_2...o0o3-139kb.jpg
  • #125
  • Nov 30, 2011 4:50pm Nov 30, 2011 4:50pm
i would like to say something. the idea of using an indicator to assist ones perception of the price is something i like, though if it was possible i would like to be able to not have to use one. i suppose that i could claim i truly do not need my macd or cci.. but i ask you here, does anyone know of a way to not have to use an indicator like for example the cci?

i am talking about not haveing to use it and still gettting that feeling of "oh okay here this move is greater then that, in force". perhaps it is just me overcomplicating things. but if anyone knows please advice.

and i must add, i love the idea of the sell/buy zone, the ttl, and also the ross hook.

ideas? comments?
  • #126
  • Nov 30, 2011 10:34pm Nov 30, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting robdee
EURUSD
London Open big volume did not break first bearish target, this was good evidence of bullish support.
Bulls reacted to any price action below 50 fibo.
Fed surprise announcement produced 200 pip bullish candle.
Bears defense of 1.34 failed.

Attachment

That is my interpretation of what happened today.
I missed the bullish move because I kept thinking like a euro bear.
One of the things the VSA threads taught me was cause and effect, the D chart had a doji 3 days ago then a shooting star. The failure of that shooting star to go lower may (and I'll say may, same as you thoughts were on lower) have given reason to look to buy.

At the moment my simple thoughts are:

a) possible rally in a downtrend, we can still go lower and price is right on a D sell zone
b) if the market is convinced eur problems solved then this could be start of big move up, of course there could be some funny up and down days until that happens
c) we have no divergence to confirm the move up

So this D set up is one of those where I'd look at the chance to buy and sell whatever decent set ups happen from 5 min charts. As opposed to the recent sell only bias.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #127
  • Nov 30, 2011 10:51pm Nov 30, 2011 10:51pm
Rob there are a couple of threads now that trade using the TDI, I'm not sure of its make up but its very close to the old fozzy (theres nothing new in trading) 8 rsi with 8 sma on it.

I have for a little while now been using higher TF fozzy crosses (as its a standard mt4 indi) as first hint of direction change (divergence a bonus) with above/below higher TF rsi 50 line as the 2nd confirmation of direction.

Then using 5 min 1 2 3's (higher lows lower highs) as the entry method. Taking care with days like today where we could still go either way (my bias is up though) as the market might want a final shake out attempt lower.

So I tried to filter the 1 2 3 set ups to my view of D chart.

See one of prev posts, after up day (eur and gu) yesterday price came out of Asian session lower so that = buy bias.
  • #128
  • Nov 30, 2011 10:59pm Nov 30, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting Vantage
So this D set up is one of those where I'd look at the chance to buy and sell whatever decent set ups happen from 5 min charts. As opposed to the recent sell only bias.
hi there vantage, do you just base your directional trade in daily chart? and use rsi just for directional bias? how about H1 and H4, can we use this as well to base our directional bias to trade in M5?

thanks alot
frank
  • #129
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:00am Dec 1, 2011 6:00am
Quoting alrightfrank
hi there vantage, do you just base your directional trade in daily chart? and use rsi just for directional bias? how about H1 and H4, can we use this as well to base our directional bias to trade in M5?

thanks alot
frank
Hi Frank

Perhaps a fine line here between going off topic and Robdees request to help fine tune 1 2 3 entries.

Bias is D chart based, if you are going against that its one of those counter trend choices. You either accept the risk as being higher, perhaps lower your profit expectations (grab lower pips if in profit), or pass on the trade.

Pls see above posts, we take certain 1 2 3 trades on 5 min if its in line with D trend without waiting for 1hr to fall in line. For example if (as has been the case now except the last day or 2) the GU, eur trend is down you are looking for sell opp's. A classic would be price moving higher out of Asian session we would not be looking to buy but waiting for a 2b/dble top/1 2 3 at the recent extreme of price that you are hoping is in a sell zone at an important level.

If you miss that initial 1 2 3 trade at the recent price extreme then we would be looking to only trade after 1hr/4hr has lined up. In the case of a sell we would be looking for some kind of hesitation candle (on 1hr) eg doji, shooting star, close in lower half of candle OR 2 or more candles that are pos closes but fail to break higher out of the recent range.

Long explaination of your question but waiting sometimes for D 1hr trend to fall in line is a solid way to trade.
  • #130
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:07am Dec 1, 2011 6:07am
Quoting alrightfrank
hi there vantage, do you just base your directional trade in daily chart? and use rsi just for directional bias? how about H1 and H4, can we use this as well to base our directional bias to trade in M5?

thanks alot
frank
Personal view is roughly 70% of the time pa will follow the D chart from 1 day to the next. Thats decent odds, you then need to say where will you get in. It might mean that if trend is down London might try and buck that and needs US vol's to turn market to fall in line with D. Bottom line you can STILL lose money if you are trading trend IF you are using small stops and NOT being careful with your entry.

1 2 3's is a classic method to use to shake out efforts to go against the trend.
  • #131
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:16am Dec 1, 2011 6:16am
Quoting Vantage
Bias is D chart based

-we take certain 1 2 3 trades on 5 min if its in line with D without waiting for 1hr to fall in line.
-we would be looking to recent extreme of price that you are hoping is at an important level.
-If you miss that initial 1 2 3 trade at the recent price extreme then we would be looking to only trade after 1hr/4hr has lined up.
With the above in mind pls look again at chart in post 119.

If you missed the distorted pattern buy (2b trade) around 5539 (the recent extreme of price) we would then be waiting for a 1hr close to look for a 1 2 3 buy at a higher level.
  • #132
  • Dec 1, 2011 10:44am Dec 1, 2011 10:44am
Quoting Vantage
I have for a little while now been using higher TF fozzy crosses (as its a standard mt4 indi) as first hint of direction change (divergence a bonus) with above/below higher TF rsi 50 line as the 2nd confirmation of direction.

Then using 5 min 1 2 3's (higher lows lower highs) as the entry method. Taking care with days like today where we could still go either way (my bias is up though) as the market might want a final shake out attempt lower.

So I tried to filter the 1 2 3 set ups to my view of D chart.
Following on from above post 11 hrs ago. As mentioned bias was up.

D pos close yesterday, fozzy crossed up and on 50 line.

Price comes out of Asian session dropping, but bias is up, so prob a London open head fake lower. See earlier post look to trade the reversal of direction of pa coming out of Asia time.

1hr candle closes bouncing off the D pivot ie an important level, a pos close hammer, in the direction of D bias. So now my D and 1hr charts are agreeing. 5 min chart, red line shows close of 1hr hammer and 1 2 3 follows see arrow up.

Couldn't get a better example of how I view 1 2 3 (higher low) trades.

Oh also the first 15-20 mins after a 1hr close often brings the desired 1 2 3 trade.

Oh almost forgot, look to left of 1hr chart, the hammer close is a move up from its buy zone.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #133
  • Dec 1, 2011 11:04am Dec 1, 2011 11:04am
I have never been a big user of fibs but in keeping with the direction of thread just put this on. Seems to speak for itself.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #134
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:14pm Dec 1, 2011 12:14pm
Thanks to Vantage we are seeing more details of the relationship between higher and lower timeframes.

I like to see what is happening on a monthly scale using the 4 hour chart.
I use a 30 candle cycle and during November this has been starting on Fridays.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-2011-12-01-h4-cci30.gif Size: 16 KB


As you can see I set CCI(30) to match the cycle.
I stretch the O/S O/B lines out from the default to +/- 125.
Apart from that it is just like my Basic Setup with Fibo Targets I use on 5min charts.

I hope this gives you something useful.

Robdee
  • #135
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:02pm Dec 1, 2011 1:02pm
hi
what happen today please describe this picture in eurusd?
I had buy position in eurusd today and my SL hitted why?
best regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm5(4).gif Size: 26 KB
  • #136
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:32pm Dec 1, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting davidtrader
what happen today please describe this picture in eurusd? I had buy position in eurusd today and my SL hitted why?
Hi david trader, your chart is easy to read. Any time you see price moving below point 3 that means the pattern is no longer valid, the sellers are too strong. If you see this then it is a good time to look for an exit.
  • #137
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:48pm Dec 1, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting robdee
Hi david trader, your chart is easy to read. Any time you see price moving below point 3 that means the pattern is no longer valid, the sellers are too strong. If you see this then it is a good time to look for an exit.
thanx
can I inter for sell position if price close blow 3 point?
how I can filter the positions in range markets?
  • #138
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:01pm Dec 1, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting davidtrader
can I inter for sell position if price close blow 3 point?
Yes, wait for bearish 123 pattern and draw your sell zone.

Quote
how I can filter the positions in range markets?
Good question, that is the purpose of this thread to find answers.

One simple way taught by Joe Ross is this.

 

  1. Wait for strong move up (60+), then look for bearish 123 at the top.
  2. Wait for strong move down, then look for bullish 123 at the bottom.

  • #139
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:05pm Dec 1, 2011 2:05pm
EURUSD
Can't seem to get those bears out of my mind.
Cost me -20 pips soon after the London Open.
Looks like a good defense of 1.35 by the bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-2011-12-01-m5-bears.gif Size: 21 KB


If anyone sees a clear bullish picture, I'm interested
  • #140
  • Dec 1, 2011 2:17pm Dec 1, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting robdee
Yes, wait for bearish 123 pattern and draw your sell zone.


Good question, that is the purpose of this thread to find answers.

One simple way taught by Joe Ross is this.

 

  1. Wait for strong move up (60+), then look for bearish 123 at the top.
  2. Wait for strong move down, then look for bullish 123 at the bottom.


thanx alot
Is price move from point 2 to poine 3 strong in my Previous pic?
6 traders viewing now