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Silent Service Method

  • #13,261
  • Nov 30, 2011 8:24am Nov 30, 2011 8:24am
Interesting move by the Central Banks today... Like a gravely wounded animal, what else could they do, if yet unaware of their demise? Further consolidation is a logical response.

I believe the credit crisis is now imminent in Europe. Still calling it Short Euro, Long USD from around the 1.38 handle and revising its hold into February with a stop just above 1.4250. (Methinks it's also about time for the P.I.I.G.S. to start selling more of their significant asset holdings.)

This is tragicomic.
  • #13,262
  • Dec 1, 2011 12:16am Dec 1, 2011 12:16am
Quoting Soca
Interesting move by the Central Banks today... Like a gravely wounded animal, what else could they do, if yet unaware of their demise? Further consolidation is a logical response.

I believe the credit crisis is now imminent in Europe. Still calling it Short Euro, Long USD from around the 1.38 handle and revising its hold into February with a stop just above 1.4250. (Methinks it's also about time for the P.I.I.G.S. to start selling more of their significant asset holdings.)

This is tragicomic.
I think you are correct, but one must also be very careful as this thing is taking much longer to unwind than any of us could have guessed. I do wonder what they saw that pressed all of them into doing this action today. The fact they all did it tells me that things are much weaker in the underlying markets than most understand.
  • #13,263
  • Dec 5, 2011 10:05pm Dec 5, 2011 10:05pm
Still love the USD/CHF pair. Looking forward, I am planning on holding onto this one for quite some time. The SNB is working against an appreciating Franc, and the Dollar is the sole "safe haven" currency at the moment. The weekly chart below shows the candle for last week, and if we can get above the recent highs......we should enter a new consolidation zone as marked by the rectangle.......truthfully, I am hoping for above parity......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy.png Size: 29 KB
  • #13,264
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:20pm Dec 6, 2011 2:20pm
New video on the website....
  • #13,265
  • Dec 6, 2011 2:24pm Dec 6, 2011 2:24pm
+++ Rumor rumor rumor... all is well in the EU, apparently.
  • #13,266
  • Dec 7, 2011 8:45am Dec 7, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Venice
+++ Rumor rumor rumor... all is well in the EU, apparently.
Yes, and the ability of rumors to move the market is making almost everything a short-term trade. Add to that the lack of liquidity in December, and we could see massive moves in the next two weeks or so.
  • #13,267
  • Dec 9, 2011 5:16pm Dec 9, 2011 5:16pm
First one:

GBP/USD hits 1.43.......
  • #13,268
  • Dec 11, 2011 2:07pm Dec 11, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting clockwork71
New video on the website....
Chris... Looks like Youtube is saying this video is a duplicate... perhaps you're linking to the wrong video?

http://thetraderguy.com/uncategorize...-december-2011
  • #13,269
  • Dec 11, 2011 3:02pm Dec 11, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Chris... Looks like Youtube is saying this video is a duplicate... perhaps you're linking to the wrong video?

http://thetraderguy.com/uncategorize...-december-2011
Fixed......thanks for the heads up.
  • #13,270
  • Dec 12, 2011 9:03pm Dec 12, 2011 9:03pm
Finally....the USD/CHF begins to take off.......

As long as the Dollar gets bid, and the SNB is willing to fight the Franc appreciating.....this pair should go. Also, take a look: A triangle has just broke to the upside. Target: parity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #13,271
  • Edited 9:38pm Dec 12, 2011 9:20pm | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
Finally....the USD/CHF begins to take off.......

As long as the Dollar gets bid, and the SNB is willing to fight the Franc appreciating.....this pair should go. Also, take a look: A triangle has just broke to the upside. Target: parity.
Been watching this myself. This pair is going onto watch status myself. all we need is the pull back now.

Edit: .9293 min. Will be buying the crap out of this one.
  • #13,272
  • Dec 13, 2011 2:59pm Dec 13, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting Venice
Been watching this myself. This pair is going onto watch status myself. all we need is the pull back now.

Edit: .9293 min. Will be buying the crap out of this one.
Yes, this is one I will hold for months if not years.
  • #13,273
  • Dec 13, 2011 3:10pm Dec 13, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, this is one I will hold for months if not years.
I apparently can't write coherent sentences when I'm on the bubbley! lol.

I close all transactions at the end of year so that will be a cut off for me... but yes, it's been stair stepping pretty well (albeit slowly). No reason to fight it. I just need that pullback for optimal r/r.
  • #13,274
  • Dec 14, 2011 9:10am Dec 14, 2011 9:10am
Quoting Venice
I apparently can't write coherent sentences when I'm on the bubbley! lol.

I close all transactions at the end of year so that will be a cut off for me... but yes, it's been stair stepping pretty well (albeit slowly). No reason to fight it. I just need that pullback for optimal r/r.
Not a bad thing. To be honest, I am willing to build a core position in this, and add a bit here and there on the way up.
  • #13,275
  • Dec 14, 2011 12:31pm Dec 14, 2011 12:31pm
Does anybody else have 1.29 as a significant round number on eurusd? Lots of people are mentioning 1.30 and someone even mentioned 1.2450 the other day but I see that as less important than 1.29, touched multiple times in the, albeit distant, past. Funny how different people see and value different things. I'm tempted to hold my eurusd short through a touch and possible bounce from 1.29 but not sure I want to give too much back. Put it this way, there's a lot of bad news been out already, some consolidation around 1.29 would make sense and even possibly a pullback to higher levels before the next leg down.
  • #13,276
  • Dec 15, 2011 8:26am Dec 15, 2011 8:26am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Does anybody else have 1.29 as a significant round number on eurusd? Lots of people are mentioning 1.30 and someone even mentioned 1.2450 the other day but I see that as less important than 1.29, touched multiple times in the, albeit distant, past. Funny how different people see and value different things. I'm tempted to hold my eurusd short through a touch and possible bounce from 1.29 but not sure I want to give too much back. Put it this way, there's a lot of bad news been out already, some consolidation around 1.29 would make sense and even...
I actually have the 1.30 - 1.29 level as the entirety of the support zone. This is pretty common really, to have 100 pips as a "zone" rather than a line.
  • #13,277
  • Dec 15, 2011 3:31pm Dec 15, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
I actually have the 1.30 - 1.29 level as the entirety of the support zone. This is pretty common really, to have 100 pips as a "zone" rather than a line.
Makes sense
  • #13,278
  • Dec 15, 2011 10:03pm Dec 15, 2011 10:03pm
The USD/CHF pair fell today, but I think this is mainly a knee-jerk reaction to a lack of raising the floor in the EUR/CHF pair. The orange line is the break out point. If we get a supportive candle at this point - I am adding to my longs in this position. If it fails - I am out with a small gain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #13,279
  • Dec 15, 2011 11:42pm Dec 15, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
The USD/CHF pair fell today, but I think this is mainly a knee-jerk reaction to a lack of raising the floor in the EUR/CHF pair. The orange line is the break out point. If we get a supportive candle at this point - I am adding to my longs in this position. If it fails - I am out with a small gain.
You don't think the fall is contributed to the it being december and lack of real volume?
  • #13,280
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:25am Dec 16, 2011 9:25am
Quoting dre3029
You don't think the fall is contributed to the it being december and lack of real volume?
I don't think so.....not yet at least. Next week will be an absolute joke though, unless there is some kind of massive shock again. The move coincided with the SNB announcement almost to the minute.
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