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Illusion of Time(frames)

  • #121
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:59pm Nov 28, 2011 10:59pm
you cannot trade ANY so call Time frames, independently, st=bt
one is the result of the other, it's best to identify overall, and be aware of which phase of impulse or correction one is trading in relation to the overall picture, and the now will determine how the bigger candle will look like,



so knowing where the overall has been in relation to the now, as the now changes tomorrows overall outlook.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #122
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:39pm Nov 28, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting the redlion
you cannot trade ANY so call Time frames, independently, st=bt
one is the result of the other, it's best to identify overall, and be aware of which phase of impulse or correction one is trading in relation to the overall picture, and the now will determine how the bigger candle will look like,



so knowing where the overall has been in relation to the now, as the now changes tomorrows overall outlook.
With all due respect, there's probably a lot of good sense in what you say but I do trade the 5 min without referring to other timeframes.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #123
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:47pm Nov 28, 2011 11:47pm
and you are probably right lol

i trade the way it fits my brain
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #124
  • Nov 28, 2011 11:58pm Nov 28, 2011 11:58pm
Quoting the redlion
and you are probably right lol

i trade the way it fits my brain
Fair enough.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #125
  • Nov 29, 2011 3:42am Nov 29, 2011 3:42am
Quoting zamanib
I left time frame chart long time a go -- I had my programmer made my on constant rangebar script (indicator) I was tired looking 3 -4 diff time frame chart- After all we trade price not time -- I dont care about news or time I trade what i see happen to the price base on my rangebar chart -- however - I look to trade when volume is high when the bajor banks open in UK and USA 3am London 8am NY
I hope this will clear up some of your questions and answers
I developed a concept bar based on renko whereby it would identify/highlight momentum moves based on set criterias...this way visually one could identify objectively specific patterns in momentum...but never got it developed/programed.
  • #126
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:08pm Nov 29, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting the redlion
this is how i see price,

T = trend, via SMA of 20 (monthly) check via Monthly open reference point
c= cycles through ABC, price pattern movement (acceleration, loss of momentum, correction)
I= unpredictable variables
SD= standard deviations
AR= average ranges

The very outline of a Trading System and the entire basis for the use of Technical Analysis.
  • #127
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:16pm Nov 29, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Nope, havent achieved it yet. But it does seem quite a practical approach. Im starting some tests on this matter.
Oh, indeed - it works very well.

I'm now developing a system that will be EA based, that considers both Directional and Non-Directional inputs to a decision support process for buy/sell/hold. I've been a directional trader for a long time and a systems based trader to boot. But, I've seen that the benefit of non-directional trading cannot be ignored.

The market can only do one of three things at any given time, and inside those three avenues, you can profit or break-even in two of them! That's a 66% chance of anything from outright success to not getting significantly hurt, right off the bat.

Time and Time Frames, makes all this possible. Remove Time from the equation and price itself has nowhere to go. The expansion of Price, is made possible within the Container of Time.

IMO, to ignore Time (as the thread questions whether or not it should do), is to ignore the very foundation upon which the expansion and the understanding of price behavior is possible. And, if we don't understand price behavior as traders, then we are truly dancing in the dark and without a partner.
  • #128
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:32pm Nov 29, 2011 12:32pm
And, yes. You absolutely can trade a singular Time Frame and be profitable doing it. The question is not whether you can be profitable, the question is to what degree can you be profitable doing it, over other ways to use Time to engage the markets.

Take any M1 chart. Drop a double MA on the chart using a 2.5 to 2.625 fast to slow ratio. Use a good gap detector to locate significant gaps. Use a good MA fast gap detector to locate what I call "Fast Gaps" between price and the fast MA (they should be historically significant and show historicity for initiating significant swings). Enter Long when the conditions are zero short gap + long fast gap and there is still a fair amount of range left on any significant larger time frame. Reverse the inputs for short trades.

That's a fairly profitable way to trade, but it requires and understanding of Time, Price and Range, to do it effectively.

It absolutely can be done, if done right.
  • #129
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:44pm Nov 29, 2011 12:44pm
When I'm done designing the tick flow of this EA, I'll post the equity curve after it has been optimized (it will take some time).

This EA will become the basis for a trading system that uses both directional and non-directional inputs/methods, so that it does does not get blown out during periods of economic turmoil, runs effortlessly during long trending periods and traps the market during periods of consistently repeating flat price cycles.

A few more TA blocks will need to be added to the tick flow and I will also be importing some custom indicators through iCustom. So, I have a bit more work to do on this Machine, but I think it will turn out to be one of my better trading systems on the whole, because it will include almost everything I've learned and proofed over the years of being in this business.

It won't be overly complex, but it will inject its complexity in very targeted ways. An intelligent EA, if I can use that phrase.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/a337b.jpg
  • #130
  • Nov 29, 2011 12:59pm Nov 29, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting Conceptual
And, yes. You absolutely can trade a singular Time Frame and be profitable doing it. The question is not whether you can be profitable, the question is to what degree can you be profitable doing it, over other ways to use Time to engage the markets.

Take any M1 chart. Drop a double MA on the chart using a 2.5 to 2.625 fast to slow ratio. Use a good gap detector to locate significant gaps. Use a good MA fast gap detector to locate what I call "Fast Gaps" between price and the fast MA (they should be historically significant and show historicity...
I don't use MA's. Just candles alone, a candle length indicator and a wick length indicator. In fact, I would consider oscillators and MA's etc dangerous. I use Bollinger's as a containment device alone...nothing more significant beyond that.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #131
  • Edited 11:01pm Nov 29, 2011 8:05pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting traider
I don't use MA's. Just candles alone, a candle length indicator and a wick length indicator. In fact, I would consider oscillators and MA's etc dangerous. I use Bollinger's as a containment device alone...nothing more significant beyond that.
MAs work very nicely as S/R. Further, if you have 2-3 MAs, don't take a trade when PA + all three MAs are tangled. It wont turn out well.

I don't like BB because they don't contain price that well and because they distract the eye. But each to his own.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #132
  • Nov 29, 2011 8:10pm Nov 29, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting Conceptual

The market can only do one of three things at any given time, and inside those three avenues, you can profit or break-even in two of them! That's a 66% chance of anything from outright success to not getting significantly hurt, right off the bat.
This is probably the single most important thing I know about market behavior. What is more, since markets usually range about 70% of the time and since trends usually continue, your odds are more like 90%. Identifying a trend reversal is perhaps the single most important thing you can do, and here the human trader has an advantage in that they can use FA to support a TA decision.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #133
  • Nov 29, 2011 9:55pm Nov 29, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting AaronWard
This is probably the single most important thing I know about market behavior. What is more, since markets usually range about 70% of the time and since trends usually continue, your odds are more like 90%. Identifying a trend reversal is perhaps the single most important thing you can do, and here the human trader has an advantage in that they can use FA to support a TA decision.
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so...... with odds of more like 90%...... 90% 'supposedly' still fail..... your destroying my illusions of riches......

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pa, fa, ta, each can be coldly written into ea's ....... possibly giving then an advantage.....

odds are, it's decisions made the warm human traders heart that are the downfall of many......


variable timeframes can be of great value in ta..... timeframes are real...... they are not illusions..... unless time itself is an illusion......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #134
  • Edited 11:09pm Nov 29, 2011 10:59pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting hayseed
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so...... with odds of more like 90%...... 90% 'supposedly' still fail..... your destroying my illusions of riches......

//---
//---

pa, fa, ta, each can be coldly written into ea's ....... possibly giving then an advantage.....

odds are, it's decisions made the warm human traders heart that are the downfall of many......


variable timeframes can be of great value in ta..... timeframes are real...... they are not illusions..... unless time itself is an illusion......h
Time, as we know it, is a social convention. So I think calling it an illusion is a very reasonable thing to do. But that it is an illusion does not mean that it is not a very useful illusion.

As for the 90% point... the observation that markets either range ( 70%) or trend (30%) and that if they trend there is 2:1 chance that they will continue in the direction of of prevailing trend is a mathematical model of market behavior that yields a probability distribution as follows:

70% range
20% trend continuation
10% trend reversal.

This is not a system, but it yields the framework for two high probability trades. Trade pullbacks in trends and highs in ranges in the direction of the larger trend (if there is one). Not very original trades , but they are usually profitable.

As for what most day traders do... about 70% of the people I know actually spend most of their time trading against the larger trend.

Also, I don't really have statistics However anybody who has spent a lot of time around currency markets will probably agree that the numbers I give are a useful approximation. Please let me know if you think there is a better approximation out there or a more authoritative statistics.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #135
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:04pm Nov 29, 2011 11:04pm
Someone mentioned Gann. In my years of researching and studying Gann type concepts (mainly to prove them wrong) it occurred to me that if you approach price and time in the same way Einstein approaches space and time then you need to find a common unit of measure. Unified space-time. Or in our case, unified price-time.

Therefore a 2D price chart is sort of like measuring a square with inches up one side and centimeters on the other. Gann followers typically square the chart visually use chart scaling to get a common measurement. ie 1 bar = 1 point or 1 bar = 5 points or whatever.

Mathematically you can use Pythagorean's Theorem to find a common unit of measure. There are also "squaring" methods that can accomplish this as well.

So then the time frame is only a matter of how much resolution you want to see.

Play around with the concepts and you'll be amazed when price and time start squaring all over the place and price reacts in kind.
  • #136
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:07pm Nov 29, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting JR97
Someone mentioned Gann. In my years of researching and studying Gann type concepts (mainly to prove them wrong) it occurred to me that if you approach price and time in the same way Einstein approaches space and time then you need to find a common unit of measure. Unified space-time. Or in our case, unified price-time.

Therefore a 2D price chart is sort of like measuring a square with inches up one side and centimeters on the other. Gann followers typically square the chart visually use chart scaling to get a common measurement. ie 1 bar...
have you read about the 'delta phenomenon'? and if so, any opinions or research you care to share?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #137
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:22pm Nov 29, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting nubcake
have you read about the 'delta phenomenon'? and if so, any opinions or research you care to share?
In my opinion, don't waste your time or money on it. The concept is ok, but the accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. It's based around counting highs/lows between lunar cycles. There are a few people that have expanded on the concept to increase the accuracy, but the things that are added work just fine on their own. Basic things like Elliot Waves for counting the high/lows and simple fib counts.
  • #138
  • Nov 29, 2011 11:32pm Nov 29, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting JR97
In my opinion, don't waste your time or money on it. The concept is ok, but the accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. It's based around counting highs/lows between lunar cycles. There are a few people that have expanded on the concept to increase the accuracy, but the things that are added work just fine on their own. Basic things like Elliot Waves for counting the high/lows and simple fib counts.
yeah i'm aware of what it is based upon, and no would never drop any coin on such concepts. i was just curious as to if you had hit upon it yourself and what you thought... which you have now shared.

i don't know where you came across it, but where i stumbled onto it took half a books worth (or thereabouts) before the concept was finally revealed, i.e. it was half a books worth of hyping a mysterious idea before the reveal of what it actually was. that alone makes me put it in the shit bin. any decent concept will never require such attempts at hype and salesmanship.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #139
  • Nov 30, 2011 1:30am Nov 30, 2011 1:30am
Quoting nubcake
yeah i'm aware of what it is based upon, and no would never drop any coin on such concepts. i was just curious as to if you had hit upon it yourself and what you thought... which you have now shared.

i don't know where you came across it, but where i stumbled onto it took half a books worth (or thereabouts) before the concept was finally revealed, i.e. it was half a books worth of hyping a mysterious idea before the reveal of what it actually was. that alone makes me put it in the shit bin. any decent concept will never require such attempts...
exactly. It was about 10 years ago when a buddy of mine gave me his copy. He said "here's some toilet paper. enjoy." I'm surprised he forked out because he was a skeptic of such things, but I guess he fell for the salesmanship as well. So luckily for me, he bought it before I pulled the trigger and saved me some coin.
  • #140
  • Nov 30, 2011 2:50am Nov 30, 2011 2:50am
hey aaron..... sorry, don't have "a more authoritative statistics" reference.... do seem to remember a mark twain quote about them however......

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."


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some markets might spend years or decades in very tight ranges, lumber, corn, soybeans and such.....

other markets do not......

if there was clear definition of range, we could in a few seconds come up with our own precentages on virtually everything traded on any market on any timeframe by using both metatrader and metastock.......

on smaller timeframes, the forex markets due to their 24 hour make up might appear to range considerably...... but look at the monthly and yearly charts.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
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