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  • #101
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:38am Nov 28, 2011 4:38am
Quoting FXSurfer
Wow. Crazy how heated a topic this is. I'm not really sure why. Just like any other aspect of trading, some people put more emphasis on the time element, others less. So what? How could it be that everyone would be in lock-step on the subject?
Yes, im surprised aswell. I understand everyone is entitled to an opinion on this or any other subject, but to argue what is right or wrong is beyond me.

All i wanted to hear was peoples honest opinions on this subject. But what ive seen reocurring on all subjects is the fact that everyone believes theirs is the only way...
  • #102
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:40am Nov 28, 2011 4:40am
Quoting Conceptual
Anticipation of market follow-through on you predicted direction for price, is a well known and well established trade theory - and it does work, for those who can work it. Kudos, if you have done that.
Nope, havent achieved it yet. But it does seem quite a practical approach. Im starting some tests on this matter.
  • #103
  • Nov 28, 2011 4:47am Nov 28, 2011 4:47am
Quoting Custos
Not sure what the problem is, each time-frame shows a different picture of price action.
This is another point that does my head in. You take a trade, it fails, then you discuss it, and the common answer is:

"ahh!, it went wrong because it went against higher timeframe momentum..."

"ahh!, it went wrong because its in chop on the 1h timeframe..." etc etc...

Yet its the smaller timeframes that create the bigger ones (?).

As for being too theoretical I agree and apologize to anybody ive pissed of here but like i mentioned i just find that a lot of topics contradict themselves, as well as i myself
  • #104
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:03am Nov 28, 2011 5:03am
Quoting Pipalicious
This is another point that does my head in. You take a trade, it fails, then you discuss it, and the common answer is:

"ahh!, it went wrong because it went against higher timeframe momentum..."

"ahh!, it went wrong because its in chop on the 1h timeframe..." etc etc...

Yet its the smaller timeframes that create the bigger ones (?).

A
The larger time frames trump smaller timeframes... until the smaller timeframes reverse the larger time frames.

The argument is circular and not that useful.

However ignoring the issue of which time frame(s) I use, when I decide the direction of my trades on the lower time frames, I like to pull back and see what PA had been doing for the last couple months or more. And if I see a large downward trend, I don't bet against it until the key trend line is broken.

What I see as the "perfect trade" is to scalp into a position with a tight stoploss which then turns into a position or swing trade. In other words, a 20 pip SL which turns into a 500 pip slide south. This allows you to use high leverage with low risk.

The trick is, once you have your scalp, to look at a large time frame and see if there is a good reversal or continuation pattern.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #105
  • Nov 28, 2011 5:30am Nov 28, 2011 5:30am
Quoting AaronWard
What I see as the "perfect trade" is to scalp into a position with a tight stoploss which then turns into a position or swing trade.

The trick is, once you have your scalp, to look at a large time frame and see if there is a good reversal or continuation pattern.
^^^ THIS i totally 100% agree with. Trasnferring an initial trade through time into a longer term trade, as it 'confirms' continuation on the next timeframe so on and so on... (On a sidenote, scalping is a pretty risk averse approach, but thats just me)

I suppose the main argument here with all of us is which reference points we give more priority/imporatnce to, since this is essentially what we are trading off of. And of course this is something different for all of us.
  • #106
  • Nov 28, 2011 12:22pm Nov 28, 2011 12:22pm
I touched this subject one year ago: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4047832

To quote from then:
===============

I've also dropped candles in the custom back-tester that I'm writing. The reason for me was that not even one research paper written by a quant used candles. I was afraid that I won't be seeing as much information if I drop candles, but I've had the pleasant surprise of actually seeing more this way. For example, look at how easily you can identify swift moves ("thin" lines) versus chop periods ("thick" lines).

The TF toolbar is actually stuff left behind from when I used candles. It will be replaced with some kind of zooming control.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/veloce_no_candles.png

===============

Obviously, there are no timezone issues with this kind of display (similar to "line" from MT4). When you change timezone, the whole chart shifts a bit to the left or right.
  • #107
  • Nov 28, 2011 2:54pm Nov 28, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Yes, im surprised aswell. I understand everyone is entitled to an opinion on this or any other subject, but to argue what is right or wrong is beyond me.

All i wanted to hear was peoples honest opinions on this subject. But what ive seen reocurring on all subjects is the fact that everyone believes theirs is the only way...
Objectivity in a forum dedicated to the art of making money, is something of a rare beast. Quite natural given the circumstances.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #108
  • Nov 28, 2011 3:20pm Nov 28, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting Pipalicious
This is another point that does my head in. You take a trade, it fails, then you discuss it, and the common answer is:

"ahh!, it went wrong because it went against higher timeframe momentum..."

"ahh!, it went wrong because its in chop on the 1h timeframe..." etc etc...

Yet its the smaller timeframes that create the bigger ones (?).

As for being too theoretical I agree and apologize to anybody ive pissed of here but like i mentioned i just find that a lot of topics contradict themselves, as well as i myself
Don't clutter your mind up. Find a time frame that works for you and go for it. I both bought and sold the Euro last night (NZ time), using candles. 70 and 60 pips each and on 5 minutes. Candles are way more testing than the labels would suggest but once you get the hang of them, they are a goldmine.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #109
  • Nov 28, 2011 8:36pm Nov 28, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting Adal
I touched this subject one year ago: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4047832

To quote from then:
===============

I've also dropped candles in the custom back-tester that I'm writing. The reason for me was that not even one research paper written by a quant used candles. I was afraid that I won't be seeing as much information if I drop candles, but I've had the pleasant surprise of actually seeing more this way. For example, look at how easily you can identify swift moves ("thin" lines) versus chop periods...
Candles are the packaging of highs, lows, opens and closes in a form that the human eye can easily grasp as an intuitive whole. This information comes in a set of time series packages.

Although quants don't use "candles", they use highs, lows, opens and closes. And they use time measurements to figure how quickly they get from one to the other, and they make comparisons with other times. In other words, they use candles, but it is packaged in a way that computers understand.

And for the record, the pattern that a cluster of candles forms is always far more important than the exact shape of any specific candle.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #110
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:16pm Nov 28, 2011 9:16pm
Quoting AaronWard
Candles are the packaging of highs, lows, opens and closes in a form that the human eye can easily grasp as an intuitive whole. This information comes in a set of time series packages.

Although quants don't use "candles", they use highs, lows, opens and closes. And they use time measurements to figure how quickly they get from one to the other, and they make comparisons with other times. In other words, they use candles, but it is packaged in a way that computers understand.

And for the record, the pattern that a cluster of candles forms...
Are you in the financial services industry?
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #111
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:18pm Nov 28, 2011 9:18pm
Quoting Pipalicious
This is another point that does my head in. You take a trade, it fails, then you discuss it, and the common answer is:

"ahh!, it went wrong because it went against higher timeframe momentum..."

"ahh!, it went wrong because its in chop on the 1h timeframe..." etc etc...

Yet its the smaller timeframes that create the bigger ones (?).

As for being too theoretical I agree and apologize to anybody ive pissed of here but like i mentioned i just find that a lot of topics contradict themselves, as well as i myself
I left time frame chart long time a go -- I had my programmer made my on constant rangebar script (indicator) I was tired looking 3 -4 diff time frame chart- After all we trade price not time -- I dont care about news or time I trade what i see happen to the price base on my rangebar chart -- however - I look to trade when volume is high when the bajor banks open in UK and USA 3am London 8am NY
I hope this will clear up some of your questions and answers
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #112
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:21pm Nov 28, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting traider
Are you in the financial services industry?
Nope. Unless you want to count my daytrading adventure of the last 9 months.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #113
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:25pm Nov 28, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting AaronWard
Nope. Unless you want to count my daytrading adventure of the last 9 months.
Just wondered. You seem rather knowledgeable on a broad range of issues.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #114
  • Nov 28, 2011 9:47pm Nov 28, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting traider
Just wondered. You seem rather knowledgeable on a broad range of issues.

Kind words Traider. Really, I am just making it up as I go, using that 4th and valuable technique known as BS that you see in my signature line.

When it comes to PA on the 5 min chart I find Al Brooks book on prices action as good as it gets. Not everybody agrees though. One of the traders that I respect a lot feels it is poorly written and has nothing special.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #115
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:03pm Nov 28, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting AaronWard
Kind words Traider. Really, I am just making it up as I go, using that 4th and valuable technique known as BS that you see in my signature line.

When it comes to PA on the 5 min chart I find Al Brooks book on prices action as good as it gets. Not everybody agrees though. One of the traders that I respect a lot feels it is poorly written and has nothing special.
PA is a hard one. It took me years to get to grips with momentum. I would characterise market data as a minefield so for me its a living, evolving exercise in making my way through it safely. And extremely tiring.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #116
  • Edited 10:40pm Nov 28, 2011 10:11pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting traider
PA is a hard one. It took me years to get to grips with momentum. I would characterise market data as a minefield so for me its a living, evolving exercise in making my way through it safely. And extremely tiring.
Momentum is one of the simple/hard things about PA. It is simple because it really is nothing more than the tendency for things that are moving in one direction to keep moving in that direction-- trading with the trend, as it were. It is hard because it is counter-intuitive. Deep down we know (and some of the time we are right) that prices are static and if price deviates from the mean, it will return to that mean.

The real hard thing is to know when to apply momentum or trend rules, when to apply range rules and when to apply reversal rules.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #117
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:28pm Nov 28, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting AaronWard
Momentum is one of the simple/hard things about PA. It is simple because it really is nothing more than the tendency for things that are moving in one direction to keep moving in that direction-- trading with the trend, as it were. It is hard because it is counter-intuitive. Deep down we know (and some of the time we are) that prices are static and if price deviates from the mean, it will return to that mean.

The real hard thing is to know when to apply momentum or trend rules, when to apply range rules and when to apply reversal rules.
Due to limiting myself to day trades, I have not really given trending much thought. Having said that I tend to position myself for mini trends that start during Asia and finish during NY. I guess I should be working on the other timeframes however I am not sure that we will be returning back to bubble driven economies in the future. I suspect that we are on the brink of the rise of faster moving money flows.

This much I have found. Once one has detected strong momentum on the 5 minute chart (and I have a whole series of triggers that must be present for a trade), it will often take you into the sort of gains that traders in higher timeframes chase. Problem with my style or else I would have explained it to you is that it can fail by as little as a pip. Maybe when I have the time, I'll PM you with some pointers. Give me till after Xmas. I am pretty busy at the moment.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #118
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:36pm Nov 28, 2011 10:36pm
Quoting traider
Due to limiting myself to day trades, I have not really given trending much thought. Having said that I tend to position myself for mini trends that start during Asia and finish during NY. I guess I should be working on the other timeframes however I am not sure that we will be returning back to bubble driven economies in the future. I suspect that we are on the brink of the rise of faster moving money flows.

This much I have found. Once one has detected strong momentum on the 5 minute chart (and I have a whole series of triggers that must be...
No rush.

Momentum...trend... really the same thing, although if you want to get technical, momentum is the speed of the trend and the trend is the direction of the momentum.

For fun, slap a trendline on the 4 hour chart and then ask yourself how much money you could have made if you kept some of your scalps for a couple of months. What is more, you can make much of this money at little or no risk by placing your SL in the right spot.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #119
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:41pm Nov 28, 2011 10:41pm
Quoting AaronWard
No rush.

Momentum...trend... really the same thing.

For fun, slap a trendline on the 4 hour chart and then ask yourself how much money you could have made if you kept some of your scalps for a couple of months. What is more, you can make much of this money at little or no risk by placing your SL in the right spot.
True. However, I would need to migrate my 5 minute rules to other time frames where my trades cross rollover which is why I stick to what I am doing at the moment. I average 100 pips a day which is enough for my needs at the moment.

But yeah, I will have to look into this in the future. I just don't have the time.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #120
  • Nov 28, 2011 10:56pm Nov 28, 2011 10:56pm
this is how i see price,

T = trend, via SMA of 20 (monthly) check via Monthly open reference point
c= cycles through ABC, price pattern movement (acceleration, loss of momentum, correction)
I= unpredictable variables
SD= standard deviations
AR= average ranges

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my theory.png Size: 14 KB
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