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Illusion of Time(frames)

  • #81
  • Edited 8:12pm Nov 26, 2011 8:11pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting dddd
i am talking to an imbecile.
There are many places education has not been.
In your linked definition are " Time series forecast", " cross-correlation", " stochastic","moving average"," doubly stochastic",and " Fourier transform": All of these are indicators.
"Seasonality", and (news~) "economic activity" perhaps are for multiple types of chart study.
"Trend estimation" and "patterns", while for anything, are especially broken down price action.

Drawing devices on price action begin to show what I mean -- They may be implied or even used, but I don't see them in the definition you linked to nor in the few links I explored within that definition. Not only do these devices begin to structure a chart in a spatial-analysis way, traders use them in a way that reveals that (from the thoughts of a person not educated formally in this field)
-- scientists have the stuff they perform data on, and so are more inclined to go for their reality than that of the chart's
-- mathematicians both make stuff from the charts and have the charts serve the stuff's purpose
-- traders only have the charts (if chart technicians only and also), and so treat the charts as if only they count.
Thus, traders further the study of charts, as well as borrow techniques from the pure sciences.

One thing traders (or at least this would-be trader) also borrow and recombine is the idea of spatial analysis used in time series analysis.

You can easily dismiss this as hogwash. It can also serve as a grain of truth to further understanding.

P.S. -- Yeah, whoops, trading is something different.
  • #82
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:16pm Nov 26, 2011 8:16pm
trading is using the past to try and predict/guess future behaviour. what do you think time series analysis is? Time series analysis is a huge umbrella.
  • #83
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:21pm Nov 26, 2011 8:21pm
Everyone's entitled to an opinion, the silly pictures and ego trips and cheap shots aren't necessary. No one won actually because it was never a competition except for the one in your own heads. That's trading
Time hides Nothing
  • #84
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:11pm Nov 26, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting Pipalicious
The white arrows are not pointing to candle patterns...but to the reaction occured.
The samples are the latest AUDUSD H4 bars with GMT offset at 0, 1 & 2 hours from left to right.

The problem for 3 traders using 3 different brokers is that they will each make a different interpretation of their own charts when, in fact, each chart is purportedly showing the same market for a particular pair.

How can it work.

I'm signing off anyway. I see the numpties are descending on this thread so there is obviously something of value here to be ridiculed and stopped at all costs.

Regards, Paul.

numpties: a derogatory term for the imbeciles who make up the forex factory tactical assault squad who's mission is to bring down any thread that looks like it may contain useful information which would prove profitable for a trader and detrimental to the brokers who 'own' FF.
  • #85
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:34pm Nov 26, 2011 9:34pm
Quoting pah

numpties: a derogatory term for the imbeciles who make up the forex factory tactical assault squad who's mission is to bring down any thread that looks like it may contain useful information which would prove profitable for a trader and detrimental to the brokers who 'own' FF.
.... must be

Might wanna check the tin content in that foil hat pah, sounds like it's wearing a little thin.

It's a conspiracy
Time hides Nothing
  • #86
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:50pm Nov 26, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting pah
The samples are the latest AUDUSD H4 bars with GMT offset at 0, 1 & 2 hours from left to right.

The problem for 3 traders using 3 different brokers is that they will each make a different interpretation of their own charts when, in fact, each chart is purportedly showing the same market for a particular pair.

How can it work.

I'm signing off anyway. I see the numpties are descending on this thread so there is obviously something of value here to be ridiculed and stopped at all costs.
How can it work? I asked myself that question when I first started trading and now 3 years later all I have to say is don't waste your time thinking about it. It's a total waste of time and energy. Just trade your method with your broker and it WILL all work out just fine.

If you want to discuss 'theory' and do the intellectual masturbation thing, that is cool. BUT as far as trading goes, the whole gmt offset, why so many timeframes, why why why? It is all bunk and a distraction. It's okay if you don't believe, you'll figure it out in time. Just trying to save you the headache.

Pick a timeframe and broker you like and call it a day. Just trade dude.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #87
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:33am Nov 27, 2011 1:33am
Quoting LasVahGoose
How can it work? I asked myself that question when I first started trading and now 3 years later all I have to say is don't waste your time thinking about it. It's a total waste of time and energy. ...
It's okay if you don't believe, you'll figure it out in time. Just trying to save you the headache.

Pick a timeframe and broker you like and call it a day. Just trade dude.
Probably good advice. I just need to get there before I die of old age

Thanks.

Regards, Paul
  • #88
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:44am Nov 27, 2011 1:44am
Markets are awash with momentum cycles; strong, weak, indifferent and confused. These cycles are a function of specific points in time.

Assessing these cycles uses a variety of time based tools, some more magnifying than others. With greater informational inputs in other words, but offering greater opportunity for gauging the depth of the particular cycle. Which is why I trade the 5 min tf. And no. Lower time frames are not random once one knows what to look for.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #89
  • Nov 27, 2011 2:16am Nov 27, 2011 2:16am
Quoting ha-pattern
There's Space.
In a three or more dimensional model, yes. Chart patterns don't occupy the third dimension - they live in a two dimensional universe: Price & Time.

Quoting ha-pattern
We define time, and thus it exists. Say that to a black hole, though.
Ever see a viable theory for the existence of a blackhole in a two dimensional Universe? I have not found that author yet, but maybe somebody is out there working on the theory or postulate.
  • #90
  • Nov 27, 2011 2:22am Nov 27, 2011 2:22am
Quoting Pipalicious
...The white arrows are not pointing to candle patterns...but to the reaction occured.

*******

Unnecesary confirmation gets you in late. As they see confirmation, im getting out and moving on to another business/opportunity...

I think there are 2 genuine things the market throws at us consistently everyday and ive mentioned it here already. Although it doesnt mean im consistently profitable (as you guys have gathered).

Now, is this aplicable to trading like we are discussing here? It makes sense to me, although it doesnt...
Anticipation of market follow-through on you predicted direction for price, is a well known and well established trade theory - and it does work, for those who can work it. Kudos, if you have done that.

My question is this: Is this an active chart that you displayed, or a mock-up?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1322324287

Because, if this is an active (live) chart - then I want one for Christmas, 2011.
  • #91
  • Nov 27, 2011 2:32am Nov 27, 2011 2:32am
As I take a second look, that has to be a mock-up, because the large looming red bar does not fill down to the close of the last smaller bar - since that would have to be the close of the larger bar, this has to be a mock-up. Right?
  • #92
  • Edited 3:08am Nov 27, 2011 3:05am | Edited 3:08am
Quoting Conceptual
As I take a second look, that has to be a mock-up, because the large looming red bar does not fill down to the close of the last smaller bar - since that would have to be the close of the larger bar, this has to be a mock-up. Right?
No, they are live charts of the latest AU H4 up to last market close. The only difference was the broker GMT offsets of 0, 1 & 2 hours (left to right).

Regards, Paul
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  • #93
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:20am Nov 27, 2011 10:20am
Quoting LasVahGoose
How can it work? I asked myself that question when I first started trading and now 3 years later all I have to say is don't waste your time thinking about it. It's a total waste of time and energy. Just trade your method with your broker and it WILL all work out just fine.
Are you a consistently profitable trader? Curious to know...

Quoting LasVahGoose
BUT as far as trading goes, the whole gmt offset, why so many timeframes, why why why? It is all bunk and a distraction.
If all this is a distraction in your opinion, then what do you believe is not a distraction?
  • #94
  • Nov 27, 2011 12:54pm Nov 27, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting Pipalicious

  1. Conventional Timeframes: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, D, W, M, Y...

  1. Custom Timeframes: 1m+25sc, 1h25m, 5h, 2D,....


There is just no limit whatsoever as to the timeframes you can make and trade, yet all timeframes show the exact same things.

If markets are nothing more than a continual exchange of money, then where do all these different timeframes fit into place?


What the hell does a 1h TF have to do with a massive order placed 24seconds ago?
By using TF's arent we constantly trading...
Not sure what the problem is, each time-frame shows a different picture of price action. If you just had a tick chart, you would have to compress it a lot to see price action that happened last year. And of course you need past information to be able to infer what the future might be. We trade the now, but only thing we can analyze is the past.

You are approaching trading far too theoretical, in my opinion. From such discussions you won't get a lot of benefits for your trading.
  • #95
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:44pm Nov 27, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Are you a consistently profitable trader? Curious to know...
Nope.

Quote
If all this is a distraction in your opinion, then what do you believe is not a distraction?

I obviously have nothing to offer you at this point. Enjoy your journey.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #96
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:10pm Nov 27, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting dddd
FOR the love of all that is good and holy, TRADING IS A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS. How can you not have time frames? It is a stochastic process, for heaven's sake. It is like trying to calculate velocity without using time frames. How does that make sense?

All these back and forth is alot of hot air about nothing. Trading is a time-series analysis.

End of discussion....
I am with you dddd, great posts, vouched, timeframes ARE CRITICAL and as such can be traded mechanically.
  • #97
  • Nov 27, 2011 7:17pm Nov 27, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
And that's the problem right there... everyone is fixated on the candlestick/timeframes.

It is like a driving instructor instructing "Green means Go" and you ran over an old lady at the pedestrian crossing because you were so fixated on the green lights. Everyone is fixated on the candlestick-timeframe, that they lose sight of everything else.
I don't know if I'm "fixated", but I do take note of candle shapes and sequences, which along with some basic VSA, tells me about buying and selling pressure. It might not work for some people, but I'll happily take profit from the market any way that I can.
  • #98
  • Nov 27, 2011 7:28pm Nov 27, 2011 7:28pm
from what i gather from this discussion is
time frames are important but not critical,

did not really change my mind on how to view time frames, the heisenberg uncertainty principle was a great read (thanks whoever suggested that)
also time series analysis, which im educating my self on right now.


however the market in reality knows no time is all orders and price.
the market is in the price quoted right NOW!!! that is where the market is.

however in order for us to attempt to profit from inefficiencies we need to guess on the perceived value, and the strength of the directional conviction and there is where time is a valuable tool.

15 pips in an hour is different than 500 pips in an hour, although it is true that what set of orders are next is completely unknown we can see where the market has traveled and assess whether a continuation or a reversal is due.

it is also important to note that we might never figure out with exactitude where price will be, but we can attempt to guess the directional bias of the market participants.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #99
  • Nov 27, 2011 7:34pm Nov 27, 2011 7:34pm
Wow. Crazy how heated a topic this is. I'm not really sure why. Just like any other aspect of trading, some people put more emphasis on the time element, others less. So what? How could it be that everyone would be in lock-step on the subject?
  • #100
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:47pm Nov 27, 2011 10:47pm
The markets are essentially an auction and the participants with any influence will react at those levels. Whether one is fortunate enough to observe those reaction could be a matter of simple chance or something more metaphysical. However, beyond that, I really cannot see what else is to be achieved by deep introspection over a matter that really has no clear and concise answer. The stochastic nature of the markets apparent randomness comes the closest to making any sense to me. That opens up a can of worms that I should imagine many of us haven't the time to delve into other than to note that by the grace of this curious paradox go those of us who are able to make it work for us.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
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