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Illusion of Time(frames)

  • #61
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:28am Nov 26, 2011 6:28am
I often think it might be more useful to be able to analyse the different time frames by working backwards from the present moment. That is, looking at price changes over the previous M5, M15, H1, H4 (or whatever you want) but going back from the current point in time.

This would not be possible to visualize using conventional charts which would be constantly re-drawing themselves but compiling the relevant values or statistics might be of value.

Regards, Paul.
  • #62
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:56am Nov 26, 2011 6:56am
Quoting CrucialPoint
There is a secret (I shouldn't be using the word secret, but it is a secret). In the past they discovered that as long as you "buy above a line and sell below a line" that you actually have a greater statistical edge. Now this statistical edge was never released, and will never be released to the public. In discovering this powerful concept, they invented.... drum roll... The Candlestick.[/center]
Useful post.

I keep hearing about this mysterious line but have never been able to determine just what is meant by it nor where to find it nor how to apply it profitably if I did stumble across it in the dark one night.

I think they must have invented candlesticks so they could keep track of the open and close prices and so determine, at any given time, where the current price was in relation to one of those previous price points (open or close of yesterday or last week for example).

They also record the amount of price movement during a given period of time.

The question is how to apply this knowledge to 4X.

Regards, Paul.
  • #63
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:06am Nov 26, 2011 7:06am
Quoting pah
I don't find the issue of different broker's bars interesting as such but rather the whole PA, TA methodologies I think must be flawed when different traders are acting upon different time & price feeds.
Don't forget tick charts or charting packages where you can make up your own timeframes and start times. I hear 3 minute charts are popular these days.

Quote
Obviously at lower time frames the differences become irrelevant in this particular case but I'm curious as to why you would say they are irrelevant, can you explain please?

The key is the support and resistance levels (where the orders are) and those are the same across all brokers because price levels are all the same. You may have a different bar or candle formation on the higher timeframes, but more often then not they give you the same information (a hammer or piercing pattern or bullish outside bar at support pretty much tells you the same thing even if the bars are aggregated differently between brokers).
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #64
  • Nov 26, 2011 10:23am Nov 26, 2011 10:23am
Quoting nubcake
i have a feeling you are reaching tooooo faaaaaaar to grasp at something that isn't even there. just because crucialpoint says something doesn't mean it's literal or that it's not said with a biased perspective (which it is due to his personal knowledge and history). what he says surely makes complete sense to him, but to others might lead them down the garden path due to their own interpretation of what is mostly ambiguous.
I totally agree with you, i may be reaching to grasp something that just isnt there.

As for the rest, im not following crucialpoints path at all dude. What he does, what he sees and interprets belongs to him and him alone. Would it happen to be that certain comments of his make sense to me? Totally. Would it happen to be that i aswell have thought of similar things? Yes. But that doesnt mean im trying to 'decipher' his secretz. Why would i want to do that when like you say its based on his interpretations?

Just trying to find my own path. And trust me on this, the amount of things ive tested and bust my balls on is just not normal. You aswell i guess.

As for history of course its needed, but that isnt my point is it. My point is:

WHY the NEED for so many timeFRAMES? Thats it.

Yes, TIME is needed, we have market opens/closes (NOT candles), we have news events which move markets and all the other funky stuff like you said.
  • #65
  • Nov 26, 2011 10:34am Nov 26, 2011 10:34am
Quoting pah
I find the ideas and thoughts regarding this whole subject very interesting. Just to throw one more thing into the mix, please see the attached.

Do any of them look better to trade off than the others? Do any of them contain better price action patterns? Anything else that makes one better than another?
They all look exactly the same to me since im not looking for 'patterns' per se.

The candle patterns printed on the chart will vary from broker feed to broker feed so how can you 'trust' such patterns? (hence "one" of my points in all this).

The white arrows are not pointing to candle patterns...but to the reaction occured.

I have my own business where i live. The reason im succesful is due to the location it is in. I have very little competition which allows me to do well. Meanwhile, on the other side of town, there are hundreds of businesses just like mine, doing the exact same thing.

My advantage is a lack of competition in my location. hence, i have very regular clients/customers every single day, non stop. I was the first in.

Meanwhile in the future, i could easily have other businesses open nearby to compete in my territory. They see confirmation via my consistency business-wise, so, they want a piece of the pie.

But in reality, who has made more money here, safely? Them or me?

They will fight over each other, droping prices, doing the necesary to stay opened. They will run each other into the ground. And when i see that this (inevitably) begins to happen, i will be out, moving onto another exploitable location.

Unnecesary confirmation gets you in late. As they see confirmation, im getting out and moving on to another business/opportunity...

I think there are 2 genuine things the market throws at us consistently everyday and ive mentioned it here already. Although it doesnt mean im consistently profitable (as you guys have gathered).

Now, is this aplicable to trading like we are discussing here? It makes sense to me, although it doesnt necesarily mean its right...
Attached Image
  • #66
  • Nov 26, 2011 10:59am Nov 26, 2011 10:59am
Quoting Pipalicious
I totally agree with you, i may be reaching to grasp something that just isnt there.

As for the rest, im not following crucialpoints path at all dude. What he does, what he sees and interprets belongs to him and him alone. Would it happen to be that certain comments of his make sense to me? Totally. Would it happen to be that i aswell have thought of similar things? Yes. But that doesnt mean im trying to 'decipher' his secretz. Why would i want to do that when like you say its based on his interpretations?

Just trying to find my own path. And...
why the need? because different people have different objectives and requirements, and because it is possible and easy to have different timeframes.

it's like asking why are there so many different types of cars, and bikes, and scooters, or flavors of icecream, or sandwich varieties, and so on.

the problem is that having these range of choices and options (similarly with the billion pointless indicators) does not in any way lead anyone towards profits.... and that's where your issue is. the problem is not with the options available or that they are available, it is with the lack of correct instruction on how to utilize the tools at hand.

if there was only 1 timeframe shown on all charting software then you would likely still be in a similar profitability situation as now. the choices of timeframes available has no bearing on making coin. further to that, being that multiple timeframes are possible (and easy) to construct means it's actually impossible for them to not exist. if we see it we achieve it and invariably find some use for it.

now, occasionally someone comes along and happens to see things a certain way or knows someone who can give guidance and they then go on to become profitable with the right foundations on how to convert risk into reward consistently. everyone else is too busy trying to figure out what the puzzle even is to begin with and get caught-out on misinformation before ever getting a chance to put the pieces together.

we are all monkeys staring at monoliths.

the trading universe is of the highest degree of ambiguity. it is an endless void filled with dead ends and untrue truths. one can only hope there is light at the end of the tunnel and that continual exploration will lead them to enlightenment.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #67
  • Nov 26, 2011 12:49pm Nov 26, 2011 12:49pm
hi Pipalicious

we re all different and i think that nobody has general right answer to this question, but for me TFs dont matter so much - for me its comfortable to have line/tick chart on one screen zoomed out very far away to see trend and hh,hl,lh,ll. I have other TFs opened too, but im not looking at candlestick because i think its a fallancy and nobody on institutional level use it.

mike.
  • #68
  • Nov 26, 2011 12:59pm Nov 26, 2011 12:59pm
As far as I could learn trading is based on supply and demand...Using different TF I am trying to find out where are supply and demand levels.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #69
  • Nov 26, 2011 1:12pm Nov 26, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting nubcake
why the need? because different people have different objectives and requirements, and because it is possible and easy to have different timeframes.

it's like asking why are there so many different types of cars, and bikes, and scooters, or flavors of icecream, or sandwich varieties, and so on.

the problem is that having these range of choices and options (similarly with the billion pointless indicators) does not in any way lead anyone towards profits.... and that's where your issue is. the problem is not with the options available or that they...
Hey, for a troll you're pretty spot on!



Good post, my friend!
  • #70
  • Edited 2:56pm Nov 26, 2011 2:45pm | Edited 2:56pm
FOR the love of all that is good and holy, TRADING IS A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS. How can you not have time frames? It is a stochastic process, for heaven's sake. It is like trying to calculate velocity without using time frames. How does that make sense?

All these back and forth is alot of hot air about nothing. Trading is a time-series analysis.

End of discussion.
  • #71
  • Nov 26, 2011 2:47pm Nov 26, 2011 2:47pm
REPEAT AFTER ME: trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...

Quoting nubcake
why the need? because different people have different objectives and requirements, and because it is possible and easy to have different timeframes.

it's like asking why are there so many different types of cars, and bikes, and scooters, or flavors of icecream, or sandwich varieties, and so on.

the problem is that having these range of choices and options (similarly with the billion pointless indicators) does not in any way lead anyone towards profits.... and that's where your issue is. the problem is not with the options available or that they...

Quoting CrucialPoint
There is a secret (I shouldn't be using the word secret, but it is a secret). In the past they discovered that as long as you "buy above a line and sell below a line" that you actually have a greater statistical edge. Now this statistical edge was never released, and will never be released to the public. In discovering this powerful concept, they invented.... drum roll... The Candlestick.

Attachment


Have you ever wonder, when you have a line graph, why in the hell would you invent the candlestick!!! ?
Clever Japanese people, they never did tell you why they invented it in the first place. Decades had past and then candlestick patterns were published... but this is not as powerful as the main core concept of the simple candlestick

Attachment

I love your post... now you are starting to get rid of all the fluffs. With the right questions you should be heading in the right direction

Quoting Pipalicious
They all look exactly the same to me since im not looking for 'patterns' per se.

The candle patterns printed on the chart will vary from broker feed to broker feed so how can you 'trust' such patterns? (hence "one" of my points in all this).

The white arrows are not pointing to candle patterns...but to the reaction occured.

I have my own business where i live. The reason im succesful is due to the location it is in. I have very little competition which allows me to do well. Meanwhile, on the other side of town, there are hundreds of businesses just like mine, doing the exact same thing.

My advantage is a lack of competition in my location. hence, i have very regular clients/customers every single day, non stop. I was the first in.

Meanwhile in the future, i could easily have other businesses open nearby to compete in my territory. They see confirmation via my consistency business-wise, so, they want a piece of the pie.

But in reality, who has made more money here, safely? Them or me?

They will fight over each other, droping prices, doing the necesary to stay opened. They will run each other into the ground. And when i see that this (inevitably) begins to happen, i will be out, moving onto another exploitable location.

Unnecesary confirmation gets you in late. As they see confirmation, im getting out and moving on to another business/opportunity...

I think there are 2 genuine things the market throws at us consistently everyday and ive mentioned it here already. Although it doesnt mean im consistently profitable (as you guys have gathered).

Now, is this aplicable to trading like we are discussing here? It makes sense to me, although it doesnt necesarily mean its right...
  • #72
  • Nov 26, 2011 4:27pm Nov 26, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting dddd
REPEAT AFTER ME: [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_series"]trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading is a time-series analysis...trading is a time-series analysis....trading...
Yes, but spatial analysis is also useful to think with.
Perhaps that is one division between indicator (stochastics, etc.) readers and price action's pattern-and-drawing-device makers.
My preference, the latter, looks just like a regular spatial plan, even if the end goal is to project lines to the right side of the chart; and, it drives me to draw lines going in all directions, including into the past, as if 'predict'ing the last (it being unseen at the moment).
  • #73
  • Nov 26, 2011 5:53pm Nov 26, 2011 5:53pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Yes, but spatial analysis is also useful to think with.
Spatial analysis... I put more value/emphasis/regards on spatial rather than time.

Although the conventional way of thinking is Time (popularized by Gann and others), with all due respect to these trading pioneers, I challenge their way of thinking regarding time.

Why is this?... it's because it doesn't matter whether you make 100pips in 1min, 1hr, 1d, or 1hr;23min&10secs... in the end, you made 100pips. Trading in simplicity is capturing a Move, not capturing Time When you try to capture time, you will miss the move.
  • #74
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:19pm Nov 26, 2011 6:19pm
Having many time frames is important for the sake of scale. If you are simply trading sentiment and you hold the conviction that EU will likely be trading around 1.25 in 3 months, then you don't even need a chart, just look at the quotes and make sure price is up above 1.25 right now. If you want to trade intraday order integration you will need a chart or a phenomenal memory. On my own journey, I went through a phase where it was my goal to learn to trade without the use of price charts. I accomplished that goal but still used a chart--futures volumes histograms. I came to realize later that price charts also contained all the info I needed and they are free! I could not trade my chosen style with out my several intraday charts.
  • #75
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:25pm Nov 26, 2011 6:25pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Trading in simplicity is capturing a Move
Yeah, I'm not sure why this isn't complicated enough for people.
  • #76
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:32pm Nov 26, 2011 6:32pm
Quoting hanover
If you believe that timeframes are an illusion, then find and apply technical tools that are timeframe-independent.

Candlesticks depend upon timeframes for their very existence.
And that's the problem right there... everyone is fixated on the candlestick/timeframes.

It is like a driving instructor instructing "Green means Go" and you ran over an old lady at the pedestrian crossing because you were so fixated on the green lights. Everyone is fixated on the candlestick-timeframe, that they lose sight of everything else.
  • #77
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:42pm Nov 26, 2011 6:42pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Spatial analysis... I put more value/emphasis/regards on spatial rather than time.

Although the conventional way of thinking is Time (popularized by Gann and others), with all due respect to these trading pioneers, I challenge their way of thinking regarding time.

Why is this?... it's because it doesn't matter whether you make 100pips in 1min, 1hr, 1d, or 1hr;23min&10secs... in the end, you made 100pips. Trading in simplicity is capturing a Move, not capturing Time When you try to capture time, you will miss the move.

Quoting ha-pattern
Yes, but spatial analysis is also useful to think with.
Perhaps that is one division between indicator (stochastics, etc.) readers and price action's pattern-and-drawing-device makers.
My preference, the latter, looks just like a regular spatial plan, even if the end goal is to project lines to the right side of the chart; and, it drives me to draw lines going in all directions, including into the past, as if 'predict'ing the last (it being unseen at the moment).
with all due respect, that is just idiotic.

do you people have any clue what time-series analysis is?

we have sillies making up their own version of reality about something that is already settled. Waxing and mixing it together to sound "deep and thoughtful". Frack me!

Yeah, sure, the earth is flat! And the heart doesnt pump blood through the body! and space is filled with ether and phlogiston! And the shortest distance in space-time is a straight line!

unsubscribing from this stupid thread.

one last time: trading is a time-series analysis. end of all discussion. Bye.
.
  • #78
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:38pm Nov 26, 2011 7:38pm
Quoting dddd
I feel as if i am having a conversation with an ill-informed witch doctor wannabe trying to do myocardial infarction surgery. Who keeps arguing that if i can just open my mind beyond medical science i will clearly see the merits of his surgical techniques!

The examples you gave tells me that you are not familiar with the concept of "rigour" in analytical thinking.
Alright, so help us/me --
What terms of time series analysis distinguish an ever-cycling, slightly-adjusting indicator such as stochastics
from a temporary pattern that happens only once and may project a drawing device to other areas (past or future) in a chart?
Or, how would you otherwise distinguish different types of chart study with the time series analysis field?
  • #79
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:51pm Nov 26, 2011 7:51pm
Gee I never thought that Multiple Timeframe analysis was so complicated - thank goodness I'm a simpleton

I have found that recurring candlestick patterns work very well with multiple timeframes when used with various forms of S/R etc

My basic belief is based around fractals (repeating patterns), and that includes trading.

An example in nature would be a tree, it starts of as a shoot, that branches out to form a fractal, that branch then forms another shoot and forms another fractal and so on until we have our tree. From little things big things grow.

Its the same with trading - its the smaller timeframes that build the higher timeframes. On any timeframe we have repeating patterns that occur on every other timeframe

These patterns must show up on the smaller time frames before they appear on the larger timeframe

On the tree there are many branches, which may depict various forms of trading - the choice is yours

This is the logic I base my trading on

Application
Find your repeating pattern - whatever that may be. For me I use candlesticks patterns, with various forms of S/R in conjunction with price overbought/sold/extremes - appears complicated, but in reality it's quite simple.

Candlesticks primarily give reversal signals, where they occur is what increases the probability of a successful trade
eg A long bodied candle that appears at/near a S/R level does not have the same implications as a long bodied candle that punches through S/R
A small bodied candle or a series of small bodied candles appearing as a S/R level is approached gives a clue as to what to expect.
A small bodied candle in a congestion zone is insignificant
A small bodied candle appearing after a long bodied candle is very significant
Candlestick shadows also provide valuable information. etc etc etc
There are only about a dozen candlestick patterns that are worth learning and they are easy to pick recognize

The main thing is where they appear - look for candlestick signals setting up on your preferred trading timeframe
We know that before a new trend can start on our timeframe - it must appear on the lower timeframe first
So we go to the next lower timeframe and look for our reversal signal there - if its successful, its follow through will complete the initial candlestick setup signal on our preferred trading timeframe
Moving to the lower timeframe for our entry will also get us into the trade early, with a much smaller stop loss (risk), thus giving us a better risk reward potential

Sometimes its worth looking at two timeframes down
We should also look at the next higher timeframe up from our trading timeframe - to check out the potential of our trade - no nearby S/R or price being at an unsustainable extreme etc

Also when we enter a trade we want to make sure that we are entering on strength i.e. if we are long we want to see that buying is strong confirming our entry signal.
The one min. chart is most useful in showing if the buyers are still active - the price is moving immediately in our direction - up. After watching the one min chart for a few mins we should have a good idea if we are entering on continued strength i.e. we have follow through buyer commitment

So how do we find the 10 baggers - we want to see our trend keep moving up through the higher timeframes

That's it

I hope the above ramblings make sense - It's only my opinion which may be meaning to some and mean absolutely nothing to others.

Maybe my success is due to my consistency in following my trading plan - BUT I'm certain that multiple timeframe analysis gives you the structure of the market!

Please do not expect me to answer any questions, for me that's too time consuming. Do your own research, if its not meaningful to you - its not going to work!!!

Have a nice day
  • #80
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:10pm Nov 26, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting dddd

All these back and forth is alot of hot air about nothing. Trading is a time-series analysis.

.
Actually Technical Analysis is a time series analysis, trading is something completely different.
Time hides Nothing
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