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I fail again and again and bite the dust

  • #121
  • Edited 1:58pm Nov 22, 2011 1:39pm | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting smittens4212
OK, and as everyone here will agree, eventually one of the accounts will be too large to consistently return 2% a day. If this was your only point, fair enough, you're right-- no one will ever be able to return 2% a day forever; it's a pretty lame and transparent point at that, though, because we all live in the real world, and I tend to assume people argue from practical points of view instead of purely theoretical.
well, most people say they can pull that off CONSISTENTLY. So, it seems to be not theoretical, but practical.
Quoting smittens4212
Your one and only fallacious mathematical argument ceases to exist if we assume people have to do real life things, have to live off the account and will be making regular withdrawals instead of the account just perpetually compounding forever and ever and ever without being touched <--- that is an entirely silly point to start your argument from, and I hope you agree.
Secondly, I don't know what you missed from my last post. The solution is 2 accounts à $ 1.000. One to live on and one to make regular withdrawals. Not sure why that should be silly.

In the real world, as you put it so nicely, most people actually look for a long-term investment and reinvest dividends, profits,... to compound their returns over the next decades to have nice retirement money. Of course their compounding growth is pretty slow.

Now traders who say they can achieve insane returns a day consistently are dumb to try to compound it? I don't think so, since millions of other people compound some of their money over their working life in a fund or whatever instrument.
It is silly to not try it, if you can do much better than the average in terms of percentage growth. Taking the 2% a day on a $ 1000 account example, you would be financially independent within 2 years. Now give me a good reason why people who can achieve such returns shouldn't try just to do that with some of their money.
Seems like everybody with realistic returns tries to compound their money and everybody with out-of-the-norm high returns finds reasons to not have to compound their money. Now that is really silly to me.

(And don't come up with the liquidity issue. I think up to a couple of million usd, there won't be a liquidity issue, so you theoretically can at least compound till a couple of millions of dollars)

Enough said.
  • #122
  • Nov 22, 2011 3:17pm Nov 22, 2011 3:17pm
First of all, it's been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that earning 2% per day is achievable. That is the end of that statement. We know that people can and do earn 2% in a day. There can not be any disagreement with this statement, surely? I mean I could say 1000% a day is achievable, and it's still a valid statement as people have and do earn 1000% in a single day.

The next stop is applying "consistently", however you are the only one who throws in the added assumptions of perpetual compounding. There is nothing inherent in the word "consistently" that means "never withdrawing, always investing". I don't see why if someone was comfortable trading a $10k account and earning $1k a week they could not withdraw profits weekly, and leave their account at $10k >> continuing to earn 2% a day. Consistently. Of course if they so pleased, they could compound growth and eventually reach a point where 2% a day is no longer feasible day in day out, but that is not and was never the argument. You are the one who's making it the argument out of thin air.

To be honest, and to be consistent, I could say earning 100% a day is consistently doable. Your best argument would be, again, a fallacious mathematical one where you take some assumptions (such as my starting balance, or what I will do with my returns) and then extrapolate from there. I'm sorry, this is a very simple thought exercise.

If it helps, turn the argument into "Do you think traders can win consistently?" If yes (which is the right answer, and one I would expect out of any trader who has even a modicum of trading experience), then you ipso facto accept that someone can return 2% a day on average. Compounding has nothing to do with it. End of story.
  • #123
  • Nov 22, 2011 3:31pm Nov 22, 2011 3:31pm
I got positioned again: 2 pips at 3524 and 2 pips at 3512. It's died down a little so hope I can get another 1 or 2 percent before I start thinking turkey and gravy and stuffing and pumpkin pie and...
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #124
  • Nov 22, 2011 4:40pm Nov 22, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting Taigen
I got positioned again: 2 pips at 3524 and 2 pips at 3512. It's died down a little so hope I can get another 1 or 2 percent before I start thinking turkey and gravy and stuffing and pumpkin pie and...
Ok and I thought you said you were content with $20?

Quoting Taigen
I think I already went through that phase. Me, I'm quite content with $20.
Curiousity killed the cat... greed kills the trader. The cat has 9 lives how many you got?
  • #125
  • Nov 22, 2011 5:50pm Nov 22, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting pip_seeker
Ok and I thought you said you were content with $20?



Curiousity killed the cat... greed kills the trader. The cat has 9 lives how many you got?
Pipseeker,

You don't know me and I am surprised why you are putting so much energy into this. I have no clue as to what you are talking about regarding greed.

I am content with $20 or 2% but that doesn't mean I disrupt my discipline. I also have opportunity goals per day but that is more subject to the market conditions. If opportunity lends itself to put in more positions, I will do so.

I've already exceeded my goal of 50% increase per month.

October 1072 -> 1608.
November 1608 -> 2412.

You are suggesting I stop trading for 2 weeks?

Right now I'm at ~2700. If I go over my goals what's it to you or anybody. My goals are my minimums of expectations. That's all.

Friend, I wish you all the success your experience and know how will allow. If you do better than me, I will be the first to applaud you. This is my opinion and you can throw it out the window but I think you are expending your life energy on the wrong things.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #126
  • Nov 22, 2011 6:10pm Nov 22, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting Taigen
Pipseeker,

You don't know me and I am surprised why you are putting so much energy into this. I have no clue as to what you are talking about regarding greed.

I am content with $20 or 2% but that doesn't mean I disrupt my discipline. I also have opportunity goals per day but that is more subject to the market conditions. If opportunity lends itself to put in more positions, I will do so.

I've already exceeded my goal of 50% increase per month.

October 1072 -> 1608.
November 1608 -> 2412.

You are suggesting I stop trading for 2 weeks?...
The $20 thing was your words not mine. You said you were content with $20... but here you go jumping back in which contradicts what you just said.

Energy? I type a few paragraphs and post a pic it might have taken 45 mins out of my life at best. Time it takes to drink a few cups of coffee.

It doesn't bother me what you do... but when you contradict yourself it shows that you don't abide by your own rules of content.

If something goes wrong I've just given you some clues to look back upon. If everything goes well then I am wrong to question anything.
  • #127
  • Nov 22, 2011 6:55pm Nov 22, 2011 6:55pm
Quoting pip_seeker
The $20 thing was your words not mine. You said you were content with $20... but here you go jumping back in which contradicts what you just said.

Energy? I type a few paragraphs and post a pic it might have taken 45 mins out of my life at best. Time it takes to drink a few cups of coffee.

It doesn't bother me what you do... but when you contradict yourself it shows that you don't abide by your own rules of content.

[size=3]If something goes...
You need to re-read what I said. $20 represented 2% of a thousand--that is what I was referring to. This is silly. I feel like I'm back in Jr. High. I contradicted nothing.

Thanks for the heads up.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #128
  • Nov 22, 2011 11:39pm Nov 22, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting smittens4212
First of all, it's been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that earning 2% per day is achievable. That is the end of that statement. We know that people can and do earn 2% in a day. There can not be any disagreement with this statement, surely? I mean I could say 1000% a day is achievable, and it's still a valid statement as people have and do earn 1000% in a single day.

The next stop is applying "consistently", however you are the only one who throws in the added assumptions of perpetual compounding. There is nothing inherent in...
Okay I got it, it is ridiculous to assume that traders who achieve high percentage growth will try to compound their money.

End of discussion.
  • #129
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:09am Nov 23, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Custos
Okay I got it, it is ridiculous to assume that traders who achieve high percentage growth will try to compound their money.

End of discussion.
that statement suggests that there is NO compounding.

you are an either or kind of arguer.... either a trader manages their money one way you describe, or another way you describe.... never a way based in reality. nice straw man arguments custos.

let's imagine a trader with 50k. if with this 50k they make something like 5k the first week, then from there they progressively make more (i.e. COMPOUNDING). at the end of the month they have 90 - 100k. why WOULD they want to keep compounding this amount further? why do they need to push the liquidity limit for all it's worth or even tempt liquidity boundaries which will degrade their profits? why SHOULDN'T they wash off the excess 40 to 50k into their savings account, leaving the original 50k and do it all over again next month?

WHAT benefit is there to leaving all of your trading capital AT RISK by leaving it with your broker? WHAT benefit is there to pushing the liquidity boundaries against your favor? WHAT benefit is there to trying to earn more than around 10k a week which is beyond what most people would ever imagine and provides a lifestyle beyond comprehension?

this is a simple example for which you will have counters to, but they will all be nonsense straw man counters.

if liquidity allows then a trader can bump up the amount to some higher amount if they please, but as any sane person knows there IS A LIMIT. any sane person knows that there is NO good that can come from leaving all your money in one place forever.

RIDICULOUS. same old flawed arguments time after time after time.

end of story. amuse yourself with your replies, or not.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #130
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:16am Nov 23, 2011 12:16am
Quoting nubcake
that statement suggests that there is NO compounding.

you are an either or kind of arguer.... either a trader manages their money one way you describe, or another way you describe.... never a way based in reality. nice straw man arguments custos.

let's imagine a trader with 50k. if with this 50k they make something like 5k the first week, then from there they progressively make more (i.e. COMPOUNDING). at the end of the month they have 90 - 100k. why WOULD they want to keep compounding this amount further? why do they need to push the liquidity...
as I said, "Okay I got it, it is ridiculous to assume that traders who achieve high percentage growth will try to compound their money.

End of discussion."
  • #131
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:41am Nov 23, 2011 12:41am
I am still a newbie but I have kind of found a way around this. I feel that sometimes as traders we become too in the market. Almost as if there is nothing else other than the market so what I have done is set my cell phone alarm to go off at 42 minutes past each hour (you could set a different time). When that goes off, I do something else. Period. No exceptions. If I need to close trades because of whatever so be it. It helps me put things in perspective. 42 minutes for me is a good time since it is not close o any major candles unless you trade 15 min or less. If I come back by 10 minutes before the hour, it's still enough time to go over the 1hr charts.
  • #132
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:41am Nov 23, 2011 12:41am
Quoting Custos
as I said, "Okay I got it, it is ridiculous to assume that traders who achieve high percentage growth will try to compound their money.

End of discussion."
he says with sarcasm dripping from his tongue.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #133
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:45am Nov 23, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Taigen
You need to re-read what I said. $20 represented 2% of a thousand--that is what I was referring to. This is silly. I feel like I'm back in Jr. High. I contradicted nothing.

Thanks for the heads up.
The discussion was greed... your words were quoted a few posts back I already read what you said.

You said 2% but you then referred to $20.

My response to that was: the human mind is never satisfied with $20.

You said: I've already dealt with that I'm quite content with $20.

Traders win by emotion just as much as they lose. The market has no favorites just casualties.

I thought it was silly back when you said you were content with $20... but that is a different conversation than what we are discussing now.

In the end you can do what you want... but you can clearly see the excuses one makes to avoid rules they think they have set for themselves.
  • #134
  • Edited 9:33am Nov 23, 2011 9:23am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting pip_seeker
The discussion was greed... your words were quoted a few posts back I already read what you said.

You said 2% but you then referred to $20.

My response to that was: the human mind is never satisfied with $20.

You said: I've already dealt with that I'm quite content with $20.

Traders win by emotion just as much as they lose. The market has no favorites just casualties.

[size=3]I thought it was silly back when you said you were content with $20... but that...
With no disrespect, may I ask your age? When I taught mathematics, I would have a student on occasion get fixated on something I said and no matter how I tried to explain by way of inference (explaining grammar) he or she would get fixated on a word. I had to let them think what they wanted or otherwise my math class would turn into an English class on conditional phrasing and predicate nominatives. I never discussed the magic of $20 dollars regarding contentment. I guess $21 you can be satisfied but not $20.

I am simply left with a response Charles Babbage gave, "...I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question[statement]..." You either need to learn the fundamentals of English or explain to me what is so magical about the contentment or not of $20.

You have brought silliness to unimaginable heights I never thought possible.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #135
  • Nov 23, 2011 10:26am Nov 23, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Taigen
You have brought silliness to unimaginable heights I never thought possible.
I could have said the same thing to you when you said you were quite content with $20.

Those were your words not mine.
  • #136
  • Edited 11:01am Nov 23, 2011 10:49am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting pip_seeker
I could have said the same thing to you when you said you were quite content with $20.

Those were your words not mine.
Basic Logic: Deductive
I am content with 2%.
$20 dollars is 2% of $1000.
Therefore, I am content with $20.

I am content with $20. I'm also content with $2, $200, $2,000, $20,000. If .65 cents is 2% of an account, I would be content. Yo estoy muy contento hoy.

Ok. I get it. This is a joke. You are just pulling my chain by using RAA (Reductio ad absurdum). You are applying induction to a deductive premise. Right? Such as a disjunctive syllogism?

Wow. You got me. You sounded so serious though.

With the following said, this conversation is over. I will no longer respond to this particular '$20' discussion.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #137
  • Nov 23, 2011 2:42pm Nov 23, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting Taigen
Ok. I get it. This is a joke. You are just pulling my chain by using RAA (Reductio ad absurdum). You are applying induction to a deductive premise. Right? Such as a disjunctive syllogism?

Wow. You got me. You sounded so serious though.

With the following said, this conversation is over. I will no longer respond to this particular '$20' discussion.
No you just want to take back what you said after the fact. You want to place blame on me for the words you said that you would rather take back now.

It's ok I can see how weak you are for not being able to admit you made a mistake and instead would rather blame me for it.

Pride cometh before the fall. No response is necessary, you've already summed things up nicely.
  • #138
  • Last Post: Nov 23, 2011 3:09pm Nov 23, 2011 3:09pm
I truly hope that many of you got on the 'short' train last night (depends where you live on this globe. I'm PST time.) and rode it down. I was out and missed the whole thing.

Right now I'm looking for entry points to short. I'll begin my shorts at:

3380
3400
3420

The long rides are over (I think) for a awhile so be happy with a 20-30 pip drops.

Happy pipping.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
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